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About Paulson’s Statement

Author: David Kotok, Post Date: July 12, 2008

Excerpts from Treasury Secretary Paulson’s Statement (Published: July 13 2008, 6 PM) About Fannie and Freddie with inserts of Cumberland’s Observations. Treasury Secretary Paulson.  “In recent days, I have consulted with the Federal Reserve, OFHEO, the SEC, Congressional leaders of both parties and with the two companies to develop a three-part plan for immediate action. […]

Fannie and Freddie

Author: David Kotok, Post Date: July 11, 2008

Let’s try to sculpt some of the fog swirling around the Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (F&F) issues.  First some facts: 1. Under present rules the Fed is already specifically authorized to purchase F&F debt for its own account. view history No change in rule or law is needed.  As of the most recent Fed […]

TAF, Fallacy of Composition, Report from Singapore

Author: David Kotok, Post Date: July 8, 2008

Our July 2 commentary about the Fed’s Term Auction Facility (TAF) and banks (see: www.cumber.com ) triggered a banker’s response.  He argued that the 9-basis-point premium that banks paid in the latest TAF auction is justified because of the desire of each bank not to be known as one that borrows at the Discount Window.  […]

TAF Results and Banks

Author: David Kotok, Post Date: July 2, 2008

If you look at the most recent reports of the Federal Reserve, you will see that loans and investments in the US banking system are contracting.  Northern Trust’s Paul Kasriel notes that this is the “sharpest 13-week contraction” in the history of this data series.  The Fed’s measure started in 1973.  Contracting credit is an […]

Financial Turmoil moves G7 to Decisive Action

Author: Bill Witherell, Post Date: April 14, 2008

The Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors of the Group of Seven industrialized countries met Friday, April 11, in Washington D.C. as is the established practice before the annual meetings of the IMF. Very often the public statements released at the conclusion of such G-7 meetings are highly predictable, containing support for established policies, papering […]

Investing in Emerging Markets- Will the Boom Continue in 2008?

Author: Bill Witherell, Post Date: January 7, 2008

2007 was the fifth consecutive year that emerging market stocks registered a double–digit advance. They significantly outperformed US and other advanced markets. The broad MSCI (Morgan Stanley Capital International) Emerging Markets Index increased by 36.5%. This compares with an advance of 10.6% for the MSCI Europe Index and is almost 9 times the 4.1% advance […]

Cumberland’s 2008 Emerging Markets Strategy

Author: Bill Witherell, Post Date: December 31, 2007

2007 was the fifth consecutive year that emerging market stocks registered a double–digit advance. They significantly outperformed US and other advanced markets. The benchmark we use is the broad MSCI (Morgan Stanley Capital International) Emerging Markets Index; it increased by 39.4% in 2007. Like last year, the same basic question applies: “Will the Boom Continue?” […]

Fannie and Freddie in dysfunctional credit markets

Author: David Kotok, Post Date: December 6, 2007

We expected the foreclosure, subprime mess to become the central focal point of US politics; it has now done so. The reason is simple. A single foreclosure on a street impacts the entire population of the street not just the household that lost their home. All nearby property values are hurt. Foreclosures are an indicator […]

Northern Rock has a branch in Tallahassee

Author: David Kotok, Post Date: December 1, 2007

Runs on financial institutions are not always seen as lines forming in front of banks. The State of Florida has suspended withdrawals from a state operated pooled investment fund. The fund was designed to benefit Florida’s counties, cities and school districts by pooling and investing their short term funds for them. The suspension occurred just […]

Thanksgiving in Hanoi

Author: Bill Witherell, Post Date: November 26, 2007

It is the evening of Thanksgiving Day and I am looking at the wide variety of Vietnamese dishes on offer at a charming restaurant located in the courtyard of a former Buddhist monastery in Hanoi. No turkey or apple pie tonight. I pass up the charcoal-grilled squid and opt for large barbecued shrimp, which are […]