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Market Commentary


Tactical Trend Review, Q1 2017

Author: Matthew C. McAleer, Post Date: March 29, 2017

Recognizing strengths and weaknesses among primary asset classes is the core goal of our Tactical Trend strategy. The strategy seeks to identify relative strength and trend strength in an attempt to allocate capital to the strongest asset classes while underweighting or eliminating exposure to the weaker classes.

The Simple Retirement Plan Investment Strategy for Beginners

Author: Michael McNiven, Ph.D., Post Date: March 28, 2017

Cumberland Advisors is a fiduciary advisor for retirement plans such as 401(k)s for businesses, 403(b)s for education and nonprofit groups, and 457 plans in the government sector. As part of our advisory efforts, we meet with plan participants to help them assess their retirement account needs. Most plan participants are intimidated by the various mutual […]

Municipal Credit: First Quarter 2017 Review

Author: Patricia Healy, CFA, Post Date: March 27, 2017

There may be credit challenges in public finance; but for the fifth year in a row, per S&P, upgrades outpaced downgrades. Healthcare bill update: Without enough votes in the House of Representatives to replace the Affordable Care Act, there will be no change to the healthcare law in the near future. Green bonds have emerged as a growing sector of the municipal market as standards for issuance and continued surveillance of compliance with green principles have evolved. More Negative State Credit Rating Actions with upgrades exceeding downgrades overall in 2016, with issuers in California and Texas accounting for more than a third of all upgrades.

The Populist Threat to Europe

Author: Bill Witherell, Ph.D, Post Date: March 24, 2017

Populist political trends in Europe will very likely extend well beyond these elections. The results of the election in the Netherlands, along with some indications in the most recent polls that support for far-right populists is weakening, have led to suggestions that populist movements in Europe may, in fact, have peaked. That would be welcome news indeed.

Taxable Total Return – First Quarter Review

Author: Daniel Himelberger, Post Date: March 23, 2017

The first quarter of 2017 saw records being broken in the equity market, while yields in the fixed-income market have experience continued volatility. The largest movement in yield was on the short end, as we have begun to witness some flattening of the yield curve.

US Stock Market in Q1, 2017

Author: David R. Kotok , Post Date: March 21, 2017

This remarkable US stock market “Trump rally” has steamrolled through the first quarter of 2017. Catching many investors by surprise, it has demonstrated upward momentum nearly day after day and has done so with minimal pullbacks. New highs have been set repeatedly on the popular averages. Delving into the details reveals a more disaggregated market. […]

What Is Gradual?

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: March 20, 2017

To no one’s surprise, the FOMC raised its target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to between .75 and 1%. The rationale for the move was the prospect for further improvement in the labor market and the Committee’s opinion that inflation will settle in at its 2% target, with risks to […]

The Muni Market Two Months After Trump – Slowly Repairing

Author: John R. Mousseau, CFA, Post Date: March 17, 2017

We are a week short of two months into the Donald Trump presidency. The story is told in the two charts below. We can see that Treasury yields have risen since yearend across the board, with short-term yields rising faster than long-term yields. This trend clearly anticipates the Federal Reserve rate hike this week. What […]

Reflecting on South America Trip

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: March 13, 2017

Standing where I stood to snap the photograph, a casual observer wouldn’t particularly notice the structure or reflect on its history. The tourist’s eye is attracted instead to the jungle’s green canopy, the swirling waters of the river, or monkeys and a toucan. There are no markings now on this vacant building (cumber.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/IMG_0487.jpg). It was […]

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For a list of all equity recommendations for the past year, please contact Timothy J. Lyle at 800-257-7013, ext. 350. It is not our intention to state or imply in any manner that past results and profitability is an indication of future performance. All material presented is compiled from sources believed to be reliable. However, accuracy cannot be guaranteed.