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Market Commentary


More On Japan

Author: David Kotok, Post Date: February 4, 2016

The bullets below have been extracted from the January 29, 2016, release by the Bank of Japan (BOJ), entitled “Introduction of ‘Quantitative and Qualitative Monetary Easing with a Negative Interest Rate.’” In the piece that follows, I will summarize the BOJ’s extraordinary policy. We expect the entire array of debt instruments issued by the government […]


Author: David Kotok, Post Date: February 1, 2016

Japan’s initial move into negative interest rates is a baby step. However, it is the first step. And it triggered massive market responses for understandable reasons. Observations about the BOJ’s use of negative interest rates are clear. The first step is not the last step. Instituting a small, 10-basis-point negative rate on newly created reserve […]

Returning to “Normal”

Author: David Kotok, Post Date: January 27, 2016

Americans traditionally look at interest rates as the guide for monetary policy and have done so for half a century. We debate over whether nominal interest rates or real (inflation-adjusted) interest rates are the primary determinants of positive or negative outcomes from our central bank’s monetary policy. Americans don’t usually consider the other, non-interest-rate elements […]

Oil and U.S. Stock Market

Author: David Kotok, Post Date: January 25, 2016

Hartford Funds has published an analysis of “stock market returns after significant oil price declines.” They used the WTI crude oil price reference and examined a period of approximately 30 years ending in 2015. In their examination they found four events that were substantive. Independently, Jim Bianco published a similar analysis and brought the data […]

Draghi and European Banks

Author: Bill Witherell, Post Date: January 22, 2016

We have been concerned about the situation of banks in Italy and the possibility of a broader banking crisis developing across the Eurozone. Yesterday (January 21), at his press conference following a meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB), ECB president Mario Draghi sought to give assurances about the soundness and stability of the Eurozone […]


Author: David Kotok, Post Date: January 21, 2016

The issue is easily defined: Convergences reduce volatility. Divergences increase volatility. That defines the yin and yang of markets. Or others might call it the Sturm und Drang of markets. We call it a merger of metaphors. “Yin and yang” (Chinese philosophy, origin estimated 4th century BC) describes how opposite or contrary forces are actually […]

The Cost of Philanthropy

Author: Gabriel Hament, David Kotok, Post Date: January 20, 2016

A Tradition of Service Over the course of Cumberland Advisors’ 42-year history, our firm has been managing the endowments of nonprofit institutions and foundations nationwide. We understand fundraising demands the lion’s share of time, resources and human capital of an institution’s board of directors, professional management team and volunteers. In fact, a survey conducted in […]

Asset Correlation under Extreme Market Condition

Author: Leo Chen, Post Date: January 19, 2016

I. Oil The S&P 500 lost 8% in the first two weeks of 2016, experiencing a new 52-week low of 1,857 during intraday movement on Friday, Jan. 15th. At one point the Dow was down by 500 points. Twelve hours prior to the selloff in the US, China officially entered a bear market – the […]

Rach 3, Oil, Cheryl and Jeff Saut

Author: David Kotok, Post Date: January 18, 2016

When Cheryl and Jeff Saut stopped for dinner during their travels, we agreed to visit the Van Wezel first. This concert hall is an easy walk for us and guests. So the usual recollections of history, talk about markets, and praise for our mutual friend Art Cashin had to yield to an intervening concert. The […]

The “Greenspan Put” or the “Yellen Bid”?

Author: Gabriel Hament, David Kotok, Post Date: January 15, 2016

In his recent dispatch on the daily market gyrations, Art Cashin relays to us the various rumors swirling around on the exchange floor. Art’s reasons for the red paint on the tape include: • Sovereign wealth funds forced to liquidate due to currency/oil sell-offs • Hedge funds putting to bid stock positions in order to […]

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