The global equity markets started the third quarter off with a strong rally that erased the Brexit weakness and lifted many indexes to 52-week highs by early September. The markets have spent the back half of September attempting to consolidate those gains amongst a steady diet of news, from Brexit fallout to the Bank of […]
Recognizing strength and weakness among primary asset classes is the core goal of our Tactical Trend strategy. For much of the year, domestic equity, fixed income, and cash have registered very close scores in our relative strength analytic, which measures buy and sell signals between asset classes. During the second half of Q3, domestic equity […]
“A Market in Transition?” The municipal bond market finally slowed down during 3Q2016, as shown in Tables 1 and 2. The muni market cheapened on both a nominal and a relative basis. Why? Some of this backup has been caused by the drift up in yields since the post-Brexit lows were reached in late June. […]
May You Live in Interesting Times The title of this quarterly review comes from an old Chinese proverb/curse. Or perhaps the opening line of Dickens’ novel A Tale of Two Cities is more appropriate: “It was the best of times; it was the worst of times….” Either way, in the third quarter the energy business […]
Puerto Rico started off the third quarter with a bang: a historic default and a seminal moment in the drama that has played out over the past two years plus on the little island in the Caribbean. Cumberland’s expectations of default were met in dramatic fashion, but so too was our long-standing presumption that the […]
The third quarter of 2016 kicked off with historic events in financial markets, fueled by post-Brexit volatility. On July 8th we saw record highs for the S&P 500 at 2129.90 and record lows in the 10- and 30-year treasuries at 1.359% and 2.099% respectively. Since that day we have seen new records in equity markets […]
As we expected here at Cumberland Advisors, the FOMC chose not to raise rates at its September meeting but strongly suggested, based upon both rhetoric and its dot forecast chart that it was clearly open to one policy move this year. However, the case made both in the Committee’s statement and by Chair Yellen at […]
Investors around the globe had anxiously awaited the results of Wednesday’s meeting of Japan’s central bank, the Bank of Japan (BOJ). Japan is the third largest economy in the world after the US and China. It has been suffering from weak economic growth for the past two decades, along with stubborn deflation, ever-rising government debt, […]
On our commentary this morning (click here to view) titled “Munis, Pensions, and a Client Email is Answered”, David Kotok mentioned four states that Cumberland Advisors is avoiding. Those states are Illinois, New Jersey, Connecticut and Kentucky. It is important to recognize that we mean direct obligations of those states. That is because of concerns […]
In an email to me, a valued client sent me a link to a disturbing read about public pensions, followed by a query. M.L. [name withheld] has been a client for years and has had a long period of terrific results in munis with us as his manager. He wrote: “NY Times: ‘A Sour Surprise […]
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For a list of all equity recommendations for the past year, please contact Thérèse M. Pantalione at 800-257-7013, ext. 315. It is not our intention to state or imply in any manner that past results and profitability is an indication of future performance. All material presented is compiled from sources believed to be reliable. However, accuracy cannot be guaranteed.
