Market Commentary

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Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (Dec 02, 2019 – Dec 06, 2019)

Author: Cumberland Advisors, Post Date: December 7, 2019
Cumberland-Advisors-Week-in-Review-December-06-2019-Video-Thumbnail

The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team. These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback […]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Year-End & 2020 Forecast Note #4: Inflation

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: December 6, 2019
Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Year-End-&-2020-Forecast-Notes 4 - Inflation

The outlook for inflation and for inflation-sensitive financial instruments is still highly uncertain. Note that this prognosis includes TIPS on the bond side and certain inflation-sensitive stock groups on the equity side. The world’s mature economies have been trying to get inflation up to 2% or higher for many years. They’ve had no success. An […]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Year-End & 2020 Forecast Note #3: Potential Volatility Driven by US Politics

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: December 5, 2019
Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Year-End-&-2020-Forecast-Notes 3 - Potential Volatility Driven by US Politics

US politics will be a closely watched, bubbling pot in 2020, and the media will boil over every news item. That said, it is Super Tuesday (March 3) which becomes the key date for Democrats. Republican challengers to Trump seem to be non-starters as best as we can determine. Perhaps the New Hampshire or Massachusetts […]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Year-End & 2020 Forecast Note #2: A Vulnerable Trajectory for Stock Prices

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: December 4, 2019
Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - A Vulnerable Trajectory for Stock Prices

In addition to Trade War uncertainty, US stock markets must grapple with problematic earnings estimates for 2020. Typical year-start estimates are higher than actual outcomes, as a bias toward optimism appears around the year-end holiday time. A good example is 2019, when year-start estimates for the S&P 500 were in the $174–178 range. The actual […]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Year-End & 2020 Forecast Note #1: US–China Trade War

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: December 3, 2019
Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Year-End-&-2020-Forecast-Notes 1 - US–China Trade War

In our opinion, investors should not be deceived by any promise of a definitive Trump Trade War settlement. It isn’t in the cards. The best outcome is a truce, and even that will be more like a ceasefire. As of this writing, U.S.-China tariff talks continue, and a phase one trade deal is still expected […]

Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (Nov 25, 2019 – Nov 29, 2019)

Author: Cumberland Advisors, Post Date: November 30, 2019
Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Week in Review - Weekend Recap

The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team. These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback […]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – UK Voters’ Dilemma: Johnson or Corbyn?

Author: William Witherell, Ph.D., Post Date: November 27, 2019
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary by William "Bill" Witherell, Ph.D.

On December 12th, UK voters will participate in a general election to determine the composition of the next government. The manifestos of both the Conservative Party and the Labor Party contain elements that should concern investors. Jeremy Corbyn’s hard-left Labor Party intends to convert the UK into a socialist economy through sweeping nationalizations (railways, broadband […]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – NIRP, Lagarde, Trump, Dickens & Holidays

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: November 25, 2019
Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - NIRP (David Kotok)

Negative-interest-rate policies (NIRP) have been criticized by some (me included) and pursued by others, including Europeans aligned with former European Central Bank (ECB) president Mario Draghi. However, growing numbers of Europeans are becoming disenchanted with NIRP, and some are now shifting away from it. In our view, negative rates have, predictably, damaged growth for over five years. The ECB’s new president, Christine Lagarde, seems to understand that she faces a daunting task in extricating ECB policy from reliance upon negative rates.

Here is an excerpt from her first speech:

“In my view, since our challenges are common ones, we must meet them with a common response. This involves moving towards a new European policy mix, which has a number of key elements. The first is monetary policy, which I start with because it is my area of responsibility and which will undergo a strategic review due to begin in the near future.”

Hat tip to Kevin Humphreys for the reference. Kevin is manager, European money markets, for BGC Partners. He is based in London. Kevin has kindly given us permission to share his observations with our readers. We completely agree with his view.

“Having had a few references of late from board members to potential side-effects of European Central Bank monetary policy, it was perhaps of little surprise that the ECB in their financial stability report should highlight that sub-zero interest rates have forced large investors to take on more risks and businesses to take on more debt. Equally unremarkable were the other two main observations, that bank profitability prospects have weakened and that mispriced assets may represent a vulnerability.

Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (Nov 18, 2019 – Nov 22, 2019)

Author: Cumberland Advisors, Post Date: November 23, 2019
Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (Nov 18, 2019 - Nov 22, 2019)

The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team. These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback […]

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Cumberland Advisors® is registered with the SEC under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940. All information contained herein is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a solicitation or offer to sell securities or investment advisory services. Such an offer can only be made in the states where Cumberland Advisors is either registered or is a Notice Filer or where an exemption from such registration or filing is available. New accounts will not be accepted unless and until all local regulations have been satisfied. This presentation does not purport to be a complete description of our performance or investment services. Please feel free to forward our commentaries (with proper attribution) to others who may be interested. It is not our intention to state or imply in any manner that past results and profitability is an indication of future performance. All material presented is compiled from sources believed to be reliable. However, accuracy cannot be guaranteed.
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