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Market Commentary


Debt, GDP, Interest Rate Shock

Author: David Kotok, Post Date: October 24, 2016

Business Insider has compiled a colorful depiction of the largest debtor countries in the world. Here is the link: http://www.businessinsider.com/wef-countries-with-highest-level-of-government-debt-vs-gdp-2015-10. Does debt to GDP mean anything? The answer is maybe. And perhaps the second part of that answer is that it means a huge economic burden if there is intent to pay the debt back. […]

3Q2016 Municipal Credit: It’s Never Boring in Muniland!

Author: Patricia Healy, Post Date: October 21, 2016

There was a tremendous amount of volatility in the quarter in terms of state ratings. This is unusual because state ratings tend to be sticky – it takes major deterioration to cause a downgrade. States have vast resources and the ability to institute revenue increases and reduce budgets. States are also prohibited from filing for […]

Cuba & Zika

Author: David Kotok, Post Date: October 16, 2016

I’m in Cuba and have been meeting with doctors and others to learn what the situation is here with regard to Zika. I’ve visited a daycare center and a rural community and been briefed on mosquito control. What I’m learning is eye-opening. Cuba has 3.5 times the population of Puerto Rico. While Puerto Rico has […]

The Specter of a Hard Brexit

Author: Bill Witherell, Post Date: October 12, 2016

The decline in the British pound sterling that began in June when the UK voted to leave the European Union (EU) accelerated last week, culminating in a “flash crash” on Friday October 7th that wiped out a tenth of sterling’s value, briefly dropping the currency to its lowest level since 1985. While the market subsequently […]

Hurricane Matthew – Devastation in Its Wake

Author: Patricia Healy, Post Date: October 11, 2016

We never get accustomed to hearing about disasters, but they do occur and they have ramifications. Our thoughts go out to all those displaced or injured, those who had homes and businesses destroyed, and especially those who lost loved ones. Many of us have been glued to the TV, focusing on the news coverage of […]

America’s Political Angst

Author: Davi Kotok, Post Date: October 9, 2016

We publish a few hours before the Sunday night, October 9, 2016 second presidential debate. This bizarre election cycle unfolds with a constant flow of surreal surprises. We might have thought that House of Cards screenwriters wrote the screenplay. Here is our attempt to comment from the midst of this rapidly shifting chaos. We’ll begin […]

Markets and Hurricanes

Author: David Kotok, Post Date: October 7, 2016

Here is a link to a two-segment Bloomberg podcast. Our views on markets (heading higher), earnings (improving), the Fed (move in December), the dollar (getting stronger), and the payroll report (we were close) are discussed in detail. We thank Bloomberg Radio for the opportunity. We add that we like the payroll report. When the unemployment […]

How to Trade the US Presidential Election

Author: Leo Chen, Post Date: October 5, 2016

Markets dislike uncertainty. However, October is historically a volatile month, with the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) averaging 22.26 in the past decade. In addition, the US presidential election is just one month away. Should investors choose risk-on or risk-off? One way to help answer that question is to dissect the stock market pattern for election […]

Zika, Cuba, American Politics

Author: David Kotok, Post Date: October 4, 2016

“Why is Zika so important that you write about it often?” I have gotten that question many times. An update on the Zika situation follows. But first let me offer an explanation as to why I write about it. I believe that health issues and disease threats offer us the chance to assess the functioning […]

LIBOR, ARMS & Madeline Schnapp

Author: David Kotok, Post Date: September 30, 2016

My friend Madeline Schnapp is a regular at Camp Kotok fishing gatherings and a highly skilled outdoorswoman. She is also a superb economist and researcher of the housing market in the West. Here are her coordinates: Madeline Schnapp, Director of Economic Research, PropertyRadar® Email: madeline.schnapp@propertyradar.com Madeline and I have been engaged in a detailed discussion […]

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For a list of all equity recommendations for the past year, please contact Thérèse M. Pantalione at 800-257-7013, ext. 315. It is not our intention to state or imply in any manner that past results and profitability is an indication of future performance. All material presented is compiled from sources believed to be reliable. However, accuracy cannot be guaranteed.