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Market Commentary


Bank Bashing and Politics

Author: David Kotok, Post Date: July 26, 2016

How can we clarify political rhetoric from fact? In this year of political risk worldwide, the markets have trouble discounting politics. Market agents are good with numeracy. Give us earnings or inflation or GDP and agents can assess and estimate outcomes. Political rhetoric offers no such luxury. So outcomes are uncertain and the present Clinton […]

Zika Update

Author: David Kotok, Post Date: July 19, 2016

The US Senate and House must now take their critically needed summer vacations after not passing the funding of Zika virus-related measures. After all, they worked so diligently to (not) protect us. Meanwhile, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is revising its guidance now that we have, in New York, the first documented […]

Defense Budgets and Markets & Japan

Author: David Kotok, Post Date: July 18, 2016

The United States tops the charts tracking the world’s defense expenditures, at approximately $570 billion (Ashley Kirk, “What are the biggest defence budgets in the world?” ”). The list continues with China in second at $191 billion, followed by the United Kingdom ($67 billion), Russia ($53 billion), France ($53 billion), and India ($50 billion). There […]

Hedge Funds & Charitable Foundations

Author: David Kotok, Post Date: July 12, 2016

Our first missive about the perils of hedge funds (http://www.cumber.com/hedge-funds/) evoked a number of client and reader responses. We thank all who sent a note. Cumberland does not use hedge funds and is not a hedge fund. In fact, we have several asset management styles that compete directly against hedge funds. Instead of 2% and […]

Britain’s Self-Inflicted Recession

Author: Bill Witherell, Post Date: July 8, 2016

Post-Brexit-vote pain is beginning, and it will get worse. Investors’ attitudes about Britain’s prospects are signaled by the tumbling currency. This week the pound plunged to three-decade lows. Confidence in Britain’s economy has been seriously hurt. The first impacts have been in Britain’s property market. On Monday, Standard Life Investment UK Real Estate Fund suspended […]

Markets and Politics in 2016

Author: David Kotok, Post Date: July 7, 2016
Markets and Politics in 2016

As the second half of 2016 unfolds, politics seem to be the single dominant global force. Markets either ignore politics or panic in the face of them. Let’s take an inventory. Brexit Certainly all eyes will watch continually as the evolution of Brexit changes the government of the UK — and maybe ultimately of Scotland […]

Puerto Rico: The Days After

Author: Shaun Burgess & John Mousseau, Post Date: July 6, 2016

July 1 was a historic day for the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico and one that will shape the future of the island for years to come. Following President Barack Obama signing the Puerto Rico Oversight, Management, and Economic Stability Act (PROMESA) on June 30, the island experienced its largest single default to date. Faced with […]

Federal Budget: Clinton vs Trump? Let’s ask Maya MacGuineas.

Author: David Kotok, Post Date: July 2, 2016

Many readers have asked about the tax, spending, and budget impacts of a Trump or Clinton presidency. Maya MacGuineas, President of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, has looked deeply into that subject. She writes, “For the past year or so, we’ve been studying and analyzing the proposals put forward by the candidates for […]

VIX, Brexit, and Goodhart’s Law

Author: Leo Chen, Post Date: July 1, 2016

The US market witnessed a 5.3% two-day drop after the UK referendum. Global markets lost $2T overall in just one day. Apparently, the market did not see the Brexit coming, at least not all of the investors. While some renowned investors such as Jim Rogers opine that a black swan blowout is going to hit […]

Brits, Banks, and Bloomberg

Author: David Kotok, Post Date: June 30, 2016

On Monday morning, June 27th, after a long weekend of stimulating and fascinating in-depth conversations at Leen’s Lodge in West Grand Lake Stream, Maine, regarding Brexit and other financial and international topics, we took a quick flight to NYC and the Bloomberg TV studios. The weekend included great fishing, terrific wine, and lots of wonderful […]

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For a list of all equity recommendations for the past year, please contact Thérèse M. Pantalione at 800-257-7013, ext. 315. It is not our intention to state or imply in any manner that past results and profitability is an indication of future performance. All material presented is compiled from sources believed to be reliable. However, accuracy cannot be guaranteed.