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Market Commentary


Trump, Policy, Markets

Author: David Kotok, Post Date: January 17, 2017

As Don Rissmiller of Strategas Research Partners succinctly points out, “There are four types of government policy that can be used to steer the economy: 1) monetary policy, 2) fiscal policy, 3) regulatory policy, and 4) trade policy.” We will use Don’s framework for today’s discussion. Monetary comes first. After eight years of zero-interest-rate policy, […]

Japan. An Inflection Point.

Author: David Kotok, Post Date: January 11, 2017

Picture this story on the front page of the New York Times or the Wall Street Journal: japantimes.co.jp/news/2017/01/06/national/social-issues/japan-academic-societies-propose-defining-elderly-aged-75-older. Hat Tip to Jeff Uscher of Japan Insider for the catch. Jeff notes that “As of September 2016, 27% of the Japanese population was aged 65 or older but ‘only’ 13% are aged 75 or older.” Jeff […]

Eurozone Economies Gain Momentum Despite Political Headwinds

Author: Bill Witherell, Post Date: January 10, 2017

Leading economic data released last week indicate that European economies were accelerating as 2016 drew to a close. The political uncertainties facing the region, including elections in France, Germany, and the Netherlands, along with the opening of Brexit negotiations, apparently have not dampened business and consumer optimism. Investors have been more hesitant because of the […]

An Evaluative Framework for Strategic Donors

Author: Gabriel Hament, Post Date: January 9, 2017

“To give away money is an easy matter and in any man’s power. But to decide to whom to give it and how large and when, and for what purpose and how, is neither in every man’s power nor an easy matter.”[1] – Aristotle, 4th century BC The contribution of a large financial gift to […]

December FOMC Minutes

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Post Date: January 6, 2017

While the FOMC’s December rate hike was widely anticipated, there are some noteworthy and somewhat surprising revelations in the minutes released on Wednesday. Three critical observations jump out. First, the general tone of the minutes this time was substantially more upbeat than previously. Virtually all segments of the economy, be it the consumer, business, housing, […]

2017: LIBOR, Market Risk, Trump!

Author: David Kotok, Post Date: January 5, 2017

Let’s consider the widening spreads between the spot market price for LIBOR and FRA pricing. We think those widening spreads spell rising risk. Two acknowledgments are necessary before we wade into the LIBOR weeds. Zoltan Pozsar (Credit Suisse, Global Fixed Income Research Strategy) has done and continues to do stellar work dissecting the changes in […]

Trumpsider trading? Lockheed Tweet & The Facts

Author: David Kotok, Post Date: December 31, 2016

“I’ve made up my mind; don’t confuse me with the facts.” The best source we can find for the above quote is the November 1945 issue of Advertising & Selling, in an article titled “Don’t Confuse Me with Facts!” by Roy S. Durstine. His article contained just the second portion of the statement: “Don’t confuse […]

International ETF: Fourth Quarter 2016 Review

Author: Matthew McAleer, Post Date: December 30, 2016

Cumberland’s International ETF strategy analyzes fiscal and interest rate policy and complements that research with trading analytics to determine portfolio risk/reward and valuations. The flexible strategy allocates investments in terms of market-cap size and developed vs. emerging markets. From a trading standpoint, the broad markets have weakened post-US election as traders attempt to determine the […]

Tactical Trend: Fourth Quarter 2016 Review

Author: Matthew McAleer, Post Date: December 29, 2016

Recognizing strengths and weaknesses among primary asset classes is the core goal of our Tactical Trend strategy. The strategy seeks to identify relative strength and trend strength in an attempt to allocate capital to the strongest asset classes while underweighting or eliminating exposure to the weaker classes. The asset classes tracked include US equities, international […]

Municipal Credit: Fourth Quarter 2016 Review

Author: Patricia Healy, Post Date: December 28, 2016

Back to the Future? It would be difficult to write a piece on the fourth quarter without mentioning the election results. The Trump win and a record number of successful ballot initiatives, ranging from increased taxes and bond issues for transportation projects to the legalization of marijuana, will certainly change the municipal bond credit landscape. […]

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For a list of all equity recommendations for the past year, please contact Thérèse M. Pantalione at 800-257-7013, ext. 315. It is not our intention to state or imply in any manner that past results and profitability is an indication of future performance. All material presented is compiled from sources believed to be reliable. However, accuracy cannot be guaranteed.