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Market Commentary


LIBOR’s Message

Author: David Kotok, Post Date: December 9, 2016

Early every morning at Cumberland an email is sent around to all folks in the firm who touch portfolios. LIBOR rates are part of the dataset. An estimated $150 trillion worldwide is US-dollar-based (includes derivatives), with the interest rates reset from LIBOR. Real estate finance is a heavy user of LIBOR. Many other sectors are, […]

Europe: Mourning and Markets

Author: David Kotok, Post Date: December 6, 2016

“Unsustainable things continue until they stop.” That is how Herb Stein answered Richard Nixon when Nixon asked about economic timing. The financial and economic construction of the EU and the eurozone has now reached the realm of the unsustainable. Something has to give as the boundaries of policy are stretched toward their outer limits while […]

Can Italy Be Saved?

Author: Bill Witherell, Post Date: December 5, 2016

On Sunday, Italian voters rejected by a wide margin a constitutional reform put forward by Prime Minister Matteo Renzi. The result plunges Italy into a likely period of extended uncertainty and seriously threatens financial stability. While the vote was on a reform of the constitution that would streamline parliament by changing the makeup and role […]

California: Still Dreaming

Author: David Kotok, Post Date: December 1, 2016

The last time we received a state pension analysis, Open the Books openthebooks.com was dissecting the pension system in Illinois. We wrote about it – see cumber.com/more-on-illinois-pension-mess/. This time they have California on their radar screen. Note that little has changed in Illinois. Retirement plan funding deficiencies grow. The gap between what has been promised […]

Rising Volatility

Author: Leo Chen, Post Date: November 29, 2016

The US stock market has gained over 3% this month thanks to the presidential election. The continuing all-time high records in the equity market have pressed the VIX Index down to a level close to that of last summer, when the market hovered around 52-week highs for over a month before a drastic pullback: The […]

Politics and Market Volatility

Author: David Kotok, Post Date: November 28, 2016

At the conclusion of our Thanksgiving Week missive we noted that “over half” of those arrested during five nights of post-Trump-victory demonstrations in Portland, Oregon, had not voted in the election. Our point was to reflect on the greatness of our country that it permits the protestors their freedoms. The link to our Thanksgiving piece […]

Trump, Lincoln, Churchill, Hegel, Gundlach

Author: David Kotok, Post Date: November 22, 2016

Speculation and diverse economic and market forecasts abound on the heels of the Trump win and Republican Senate and House victories. We won’t waste time repeating them here, save for one that we will address at the end of this Thanksgiving Week commentary. First, we (all 38 of us at Cumberland) want to wish our […]

Select Election Results of Ballot Initiatives

Author: Patricia Healy, Post Date: November 16, 2016

California, New Jersey, Schools and Transportation Presidential election years generally have more ballot initiatives, and this year was no exception. There were 161 statewide measures certified for the ballot in 35 states. Of these measures, 71 were put on the ballot by citizens through signature petitions, rather than by state legislatures. Bond initiatives totaled $70.3 […]

Politics, Cycles and Mean Reversion

Author: David Kotok, Post Date: November 15, 2016

When the time comes and the evening darkness provides some cover, the infant turtles start their scramble up from the sand nest. The wiggling mass of 70–100 hatchlings causes the sand to collapse and makes their task even harder. But nature has a grand design. The falling sand raises the floor of the nest so […]

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For a list of all equity recommendations for the past year, please contact Thérèse M. Pantalione at 800-257-7013, ext. 315. It is not our intention to state or imply in any manner that past results and profitability is an indication of future performance. All material presented is compiled from sources believed to be reliable. However, accuracy cannot be guaranteed.