Puerto Rico started off the third quarter with a bang: a historic default and a seminal moment in the drama that has played out over the past two years plus on the little island in the Caribbean. Cumberland’s expectations of default were met in dramatic fashion, but so too was our long-standing presumption that the […]
The third quarter of 2016 kicked off with historic events in financial markets, fueled by post-Brexit volatility. On July 8th we saw record highs for the S&P 500 at 2129.90 and record lows in the 10- and 30-year treasuries at 1.359% and 2.099% respectively. Since that day we have seen new records in equity markets […]
As we expected here at Cumberland Advisors, the FOMC chose not to raise rates at its September meeting but strongly suggested, based upon both rhetoric and its dot forecast chart that it was clearly open to one policy move this year. However, the case made both in the Committee’s statement and by Chair Yellen at […]
Investors around the globe had anxiously awaited the results of Wednesday’s meeting of Japan’s central bank, the Bank of Japan (BOJ). Japan is the third largest economy in the world after the US and China. It has been suffering from weak economic growth for the past two decades, along with stubborn deflation, ever-rising government debt, […]
On our commentary this morning (click here to view) titled “Munis, Pensions, and a Client Email is Answered”, David Kotok mentioned four states that Cumberland Advisors is avoiding. Those states are Illinois, New Jersey, Connecticut and Kentucky. It is important to recognize that we mean direct obligations of those states. That is because of concerns […]
In an email to me, a valued client sent me a link to a disturbing read about public pensions, followed by a query. M.L. [name withheld] has been a client for years and has had a long period of terrific results in munis with us as his manager. He wrote: “NY Times: ‘A Sour Surprise […]
The US stock market entered a complacent phase after our post-Brexit entry. Although we benefited significantly from being contrarians and buying the dip immediately after the UK referendum, we were cautious about underlying conditions and monitored the market closely during the summer months. Low trading volume was likely a contributor to the less-than-1% range of […]
“The analog to markets is the struggle over the last three years between corporate earnings fundamentals and interest rates for control of stock prices. Earnings have been at or near a peak since 2013 with S&P 500 operating results ranging between $100–$116/share through that time. Stock prices are up 27% over that time because the […]
Liz McCormick’s reporting via Bloomberg gives readers an update on the coming rule changes for money markets. We recommend it to interested readers. See http://bloom.bg/2cuKGWX. Two additions may be helpful. First is pricing. Three-month LIBOR is 85 basis points. A year ago it was 30. That 55-basis-point increase was due only in part to the […]
We want to offer a status report on the new fiduciary rule that will go into effect in exactly 208 days, 13 hours, 43 minutes, 20 seconds (as of this writing). The website DOL Fiduciary (www.dolfiduciaryrule.com) hosted by the law firm Sutherland Asbill & Brennan LLP, has a running clock leading up to the official […]
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For a list of all equity recommendations for the past year, please contact Thérèse M. Pantalione at 800-257-7013, ext. 315. It is not our intention to state or imply in any manner that past results and profitability is an indication of future performance. All material presented is compiled from sources believed to be reliable. However, accuracy cannot be guaranteed.
