In the commentary leading up to the June meeting, I argued that some relaxation of the tariff issues with Mexico, combined with relatively good data for the US economy, would make the FOMC’s decision to hold pat on rates relatively easier. While the FOMC did decide at its June meeting to hold rates constant for […]
The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team. These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback […]
In the next-to-last week of the second quarter, the factors that have led to high volatility in the global equity markets during the quarter are still present. Foremost among these are the destabilizing effects of rising trade and technology tensions, which are hurting the manufacturing sectors in many countries, disrupting global value chains, and weighing […]
The US stock market experienced some rising volatility caused by the tariff war during the second quarter of 2019. While the S&P 500 didn’t drop by double digits in May, the volatility index, VIX, briefly touched above 20 last month. As a general rule of thumb, investors can expect a 10% correction in the stock […]
A half century in the investment advisory business is a long time. As the late Jack Benny would say, “It is really tough to do when you are only 39 years old.” I started solo. Then in 1973, Sheldon “Shep” Goldberg and I formed a partnership called Cumberland Advisors. He left New York and the […]
Market volatility in Q2 of 2019 was driven by three distinct elements: (1) trade war and tariffs with China, on and off with Mexico, deferred temporarily with Europe, and festering with others; (2) economic indicators like details in the employment report pointing to a slowdown in growth; and (3) questions about what the Fed will […]
The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team. These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback […]
Giacomo Puccini set China as the venue for his famous opera Turandot. Opera buffs will know it well. Anyone not familiar with this intriguing romantic opera is certainly invited to experience it. Why do I start a commentary about China and the Trump Trade War by invoking an opera to serve as a metaphor? The […]
Markets and pundits were hyperventilating this past week over the prospect that the FOMC might cut the fed funds rate at its June or perhaps at its July meeting, driven by concerns that the economy might be slowing, as reflected in the disappointing employment report and the prospects for the imposition of import tariffs on […]
The bond market is currently a puzzle derived from an enigma influenced by an anomaly. Or is it? Here are some bullets. 1. Riskless overnight US government cash equivalents yield more than 2- or 5- or 7- or 10-year maturity instruments of the same credit risk. That means a market based forecast suggests that the […]
