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Market Commentary


Yellen and Congress

Author: Bob Eisenbeis, Post Date: February 11, 2016

Chair Yellen received a rough reception Wednesday from people on both sides of the aisle at her semiannual monetary policy testimony before the House Financial Services Committee. Particularly rough was the line of questioning related to Congressman Sean Duffy’s desire to have access to FOMC transcripts that discussed leaks of certain sensitive policy discussions in […]

UK Equities Under the Shadow of the BREXIT Referendum

Author: Bill Witherell, Post Date: February 10, 2016

The UK economy, the fifth largest in the world and second in Europe after Germany, advanced at an estimated 2.2% pace last year and is expected to register a similar gain in 2016. This compares with the Eurozone economy’s 1.5% increase last year, with only a 1.7% advance likely this year – and maybe less […]

Why We Are Overweight In Japan

Author: David Kotok, Post Date: February 8, 2016

Though my recent interview with Rhonda Schaffler begins with a discussion of the case for natural gas, it closes with an easy summary of the basic argument for Japan, and it is the case for Japan that I’d like to explore in this commentary. (http://www.thestreet.com/story/13450074/1/natural-gas-stocks-are-falling-here-rsquo-s-why-one-investor-is-buying.html) The transcript of a recent speech on Bank of Japan […]

More On Japan

Author: David Kotok, Post Date: February 4, 2016

The bullets below have been extracted from the January 29, 2016, release by the Bank of Japan (BOJ), entitled “Introduction of ‘Quantitative and Qualitative Monetary Easing with a Negative Interest Rate.’” In the piece that follows, I will summarize the BOJ’s extraordinary policy. We expect the entire array of debt instruments issued by the government […]


Author: David Kotok, Post Date: February 1, 2016

Japan’s initial move into negative interest rates is a baby step. However, it is the first step. And it triggered massive market responses for understandable reasons. Observations about the BOJ’s use of negative interest rates are clear. The first step is not the last step. Instituting a small, 10-basis-point negative rate on newly created reserve […]

Returning to “Normal”

Author: David Kotok, Post Date: January 27, 2016

Americans traditionally look at interest rates as the guide for monetary policy and have done so for half a century. We debate over whether nominal interest rates or real (inflation-adjusted) interest rates are the primary determinants of positive or negative outcomes from our central bank’s monetary policy. Americans don’t usually consider the other, non-interest-rate elements […]

Oil and U.S. Stock Market

Author: David Kotok, Post Date: January 25, 2016

Hartford Funds has published an analysis of “stock market returns after significant oil price declines.” They used the WTI crude oil price reference and examined a period of approximately 30 years ending in 2015. In their examination they found four events that were substantive. Independently, Jim Bianco published a similar analysis and brought the data […]

Draghi and European Banks

Author: Bill Witherell, Post Date: January 22, 2016

We have been concerned about the situation of banks in Italy and the possibility of a broader banking crisis developing across the Eurozone. Yesterday (January 21), at his press conference following a meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB), ECB president Mario Draghi sought to give assurances about the soundness and stability of the Eurozone […]


Author: David Kotok, Post Date: January 21, 2016

The issue is easily defined: Convergences reduce volatility. Divergences increase volatility. That defines the yin and yang of markets. Or others might call it the Sturm und Drang of markets. We call it a merger of metaphors. “Yin and yang” (Chinese philosophy, origin estimated 4th century BC) describes how opposite or contrary forces are actually […]

The Cost of Philanthropy

Author: Gabriel Hament, David Kotok, Post Date: January 20, 2016

A Tradition of Service Over the course of Cumberland Advisors’ 42-year history, our firm has been managing the endowments of nonprofit institutions and foundations nationwide. We understand fundraising demands the lion’s share of time, resources and human capital of an institution’s board of directors, professional management team and volunteers. In fact, a survey conducted in […]

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For a list of all equity recommendations for the past year, please contact Thérèse M. Pantalione at 800-257-7013, ext. 315. It is not our intention to state or imply in any manner that past results and profitability is an indication of future performance. All material presented is compiled from sources believed to be reliable. However, accuracy cannot be guaranteed.