Market Commentary

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Why the Yield Curve is Flat & Why It May Steepen

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: August 7, 2018
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary by David Kotok

We will offer readers a few references so they can become quick studies on why certain changes in the tax code are distorting the shape of the yield curve (flattening it) and why that distorting effect will change in about six weeks. The first link is to BDO. It describes the defined-benefit pension plan funding […]

Japan Monetary Policy Uncertainty Ends

Author: Bill Witherell, Ph.D., Post Date: July 31, 2018
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary - Bill Witherell, Ph.D.

Yesterday the Bank of Japan (BOJ) announced in a report “Strengthening the Framework for Continuous Powerful Monetary Easing” that its extraordinary policies will be maintained for an “extended period of time”. During the past week, rumors and speculation about possible monetary policy changes at this week’s BOJ meeting caused great uncertainty in Japan’s fixed-income market. […]

Whack a Mole

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: July 25, 2018
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary by Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D.

In the latest on US trade policy, we are now starting to see the economic consequences of starting a tariff war. Farmers have been complaining that they are being hurt irreparably by the imposition of tariffs in retaliation for the tariffs being imposed on China and our allies. The Trump administration is now proposing to […]

Trade War Worsens

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: July 24, 2018
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary by David Kotok

The Trump-Navarro trade war rhetoric ratchets higher. And jawboning the Fed is now added to the turmoil; our colleague Bob Eisenbeis has recently reflected on that one: https://www.cumber.com/fed-independence. Meanwhile most of the world is now labeled a currency manipulator by POTUS in his latest salvo. For those who missed the discussion I had on Bloomberg […]

Fed Independence

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: July 23, 2018
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary by Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D.

In the wake of the turmoil in Washington, DC, over his performance in Helsinki, President Trump also took a sideswipe at the Federal Reserve, criticizing the FOMC’s recent efforts to normalize policy.

Most presidents – though not all – have understood that Fed independence ensures separation from the Treasury and serves as a check on fiscal excesses. When a central bank takes orders from the fiscal side of government, history shows that inflation and economic decline soon follow.

Western Trip-Part 3. A Simple Call for Action

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: July 21, 2018
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary by David Kotok

After my recent travels in several Western states (WY, UT, CO, ID), where I interacted with several hundred folks, participating in panel sessions at the Rocky Mountain Summit in Teton Springs, ID, and engaging in private roundtables with professional and financial industry colleagues and meetings with clients, prospects, and referring consultants, I am impelled to […]

Western Trip-Part 2 – Breastfeeding & The WHO

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: July 19, 2018
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary by David Kotok

While I was on my four-state trip out West, a small item crossed my news feed. Politico picked it up from the New York Times story about the WHO meeting and the US’s bullying of Ecuador. The US representatives were trying to dilute the World Health Organization’s support of breastfeeding. They were encouraged by business […]

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