Market Commentary


Munis, Defaults, Chicago

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: July 11, 2017

In her quarterly missive, Cumberland’s Patty Healy offered a terrific summary of credit conditions in the US muni market. Here’s that John Mousseau furthered a dissection of the subject on Asset TV. See Let’s add to this conversation and end with an investment conclusion. On June 27th, Moody’s issued a massive report entitled […]

More on First Amendment

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: July 8, 2017

We received many replies after we published my commentary “America’s Birthday” ( A sampling of readers’ responses follows, and then we will turn to the implications of the First Amendment for markets.


Author: Patricia Healy, CFA and Shaun Burgess, Post Date: July 6, 2017

We closely follow the bond insurers because they remain an important part of the municipal market, and they are integral to our Insured Puerto Rico Strategy. Cumberland exited all uninsured Puerto Rico exposure in 2011, as it was clear that population loss and economic circumstances combined with the heavy indebtedness and dysfunctional governance would result […]

2Q2017 Review: International ETF

Author: Matthew McAleer, Post Date: July 5, 2017

Our International ETF strategy analyzes fiscal and interest-rate policy and complements that research with trading analytics to determine portfolio risk/reward and valuations. The strategy has the benefit of flexibility to assign allocations by market cap size and developed vs. emerging markets. Equity demand in the international markets continued to be solid throughout the quarter, with […]

AMERICA’s Birthday

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: July 4, 2017

It’s America’s birthday. Hot dogs and fireworks. Burgers and beer. Gatherings. A lightness is in the air from Key West to Presque Isle, from Pasadena to Juneau. We have good reason (our freedom) for that lifting of spirits. Let’s celebrate, but let’s also be serious for a moment. This writer wants to elevate the First […]

Zika Update

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: July 1, 2017

For two years, we have been following the Zika virus outbreak and the failure of the US government to protect its own citizens, let alone demonstrate world leadership. In total, by the time Congress managed to pass a stopgap spending bill for the fight against Zika in September 2016, more than 23,000 individuals in the […]

2Q 2017 Municipal Credit

Author: Patricia Healy, CFA, Post Date: June 30, 2017

As budget season comes to a close, there were 14 states joining Illinois that still had not finalized their budgets by the time of this writing. Illinois, which has received numerous downgrades because it has not had a budget in two years and has amassed a large backlog of receivables, could possibly lose its investment-grade […]

Intergenerational Equity

Author: Gabriel Hament, Post Date: June 28, 2017

For 30+ years, Cumberland Advisors has worked with nonprofits, helping boards of directors draft RFPs, structure investment policy statements, and design investment portfolios within a separately managed account format – all in compliance with our clients’ unique state regulatory environments. We invite you to contact us to discuss how Cumberland Advisors’ separate account management system can position your organization to meet the obligations of the present while honoring the commitments of tomorrow.

Headline Risk, a One-Two Punch, and Contagion Risk

Author: Patricia Healy, CFA, Post Date: June 27, 2017

The New York Times article “After Puerto Rico’s Debt Crisis, Worries Shift to Virgin Islands” highlights recent developments concerning the Virgin Islands territory’s lack of market access, drawing a parallel to Puerto Rico and assessing the potential for contagion to other US territories: – Guam, American Samoa, and the Northern Mariana Islands. It also produces “headline risk.”

2Q2017 Review: Tactical Trend

Author: Matthew C. McAleer, Post Date:

Recognizing strengths and weaknesses among primary asset classes is the core goal of our Tactical Trend strategy. The strategy seeks to identify relative strength and trend strength in order to allocate capital to the strongest asset classes while underweighting or eliminating exposure to the weaker classes. The asset classes tracked include US equities, international equities, fixed income, commodities, and cash.

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For a list of all equity recommendations for the past year, please contact Timothy J. Lyle at 800-257-7013, ext. 350. It is not our intention to state or imply in any manner that past results and profitability is an indication of future performance. All material presented is compiled from sources believed to be reliable. However, accuracy cannot be guaranteed.