Many thanks for all emails and good wishes. Here are some answers to questions received in last two hours. I’m in Sarasota. We live in zone A and had mandatory evacuation. We are six miles inland staying in a private shuttered home with friends. We have a tornado room, water, food, flashlights, inflated raft, etc. […]
There has been much written over the years about the effects of hurricanes on equity markets. Clearly, such calamities have caused drop-offs in economic activity, followed by upticks in spending and consumption as affected areas rebuild. There is also considerable literature on the effects of large storms on property and casualty (P&C) companies. Generally speaking, these companies pay out substantial claims after the storms but usually benefit down the road as they obtain pricing power for future insurance premiums.
We wanted to look at some of the major storms in the United States to see if we could discern any trends or effects from these meteorological events on the bond markets.
1. The test of wills with North Korea intensifies, as all observers of this news flow confirm. 2. The revisions in Friday’s employment report were disconcerting. 3. The central bank picture remains fuzzy as divergence in policy makes interest-rate forecasting more difficult.
Our thoughts go out to all those displaced or injured, those who had homes and businesses destroyed, and especially those who lost loved ones. Many of us have been glued to the TV, focused on the news surrounding the devastating damage that has occurred and is continuing to occur at the time of this writing. […]
Bullets on the debt-ceiling charade: 1. No one expects the US to default. So why has the credit default swap (CDS) on the US risen in price? Answer: Bond market agents want to add a little insurance just in case American politics deliver a negative surprise. 2. The short end of the US Treasury curve […]
For many years, the so-called Phillips curve has provided the inflation forecast framework underlying much of the FOMC’s policy discussions. Yet both before and especially after the financial crisis, the Fed and FOMC members have consistently under-forecasted inflation. A new working paper from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia adds to what is now a […]
Emerging market equities are continuing to outperform remarkably this year. While a pullback seems overdue, there are a number of reasons to expect the trend to remain upward, perhaps for several years more. The iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF, EEM, is up 28.19% year-to-date August 24. The Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF, VWO, has gained […]
The biggest rainbow trout I ever caught lives at the Keystone (Colorado) Village Ice Rink, a five-acre lake at 9321 feet above sea level. Here is that wonderful fish, held by Matt Campanella, a skilled fly fishing guide. Keystone is best known for winter sports like skiing and for its eponymous conference center. The lake […]
What is Camp Kotok??? This is not a routine Cumberland Advisors Commentary! Rather than offering commentary on issues and events of importance to the investment and advisory community, this Commentary reports on a very unique and special event for the investment and advisory community known as “Camp Kotok”, held annually at Leen’s Lodge in Grand […]
Cumberland Advisors® is registered with the SEC under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940. All information contained herein is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a solicitation or offer to sell securities or investment advisory services. Such an offer can only be made in the states where Cumberland Advisors is either registered or is a Notice Filer or where an exemption from such registration or filing is available. New accounts will not be accepted unless and until all local regulations have been satisfied. This presentation does not purport to be a complete description of our performance or investment services.
Please feel free to forward our commentaries (with proper attribution) to others who may be interested.
For a list of all equity recommendations for the past year, please contact Timothy J. Lyle at 800-257-7013, ext. 350. It is not our intention to state or imply in any manner that past results and profitability is an indication of future performance. All material presented is compiled from sources believed to be reliable. However, accuracy cannot be guaranteed.