Market Commentary

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MLP: Second Quarter 2017 Review

Author: Richard Daskin, Post Date: June 21, 2017

We expect US product volumes to increase in the second half of this year as shale production in the US rebounds. That will help MLP operating metrics. However, market participants are nervous that the energy sector has not yet stabilized.

The Rise of Municipal Separately Managed Accounts

Author: Patricia Healy, CFA, Post Date: June 20, 2017

Cumberland, since its inception in 1973, has utilized separately managed accounts to execute its fixed income strategy. This was long before separately managed accounts (SMAs) were popularized in the early 2000s. The reasons for managing money in this fashion are the same today as they were then: · Transparency (you know what you own) · […]

The Fed’s Policy and Its Balance Sheet

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: June 19, 2017

At its June meeting, the FOMC again raised the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points, to 1–1¼ percent. They did so despite evidence that inflation had moderated and that the second estimate of first quarter GDP growth was clearly subpar at 1.2%. Furthermore, despite the fact that 7 of the […]

Quarterly Review: US ETF

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: June 16, 2017

The Q2 stock market continued a concentration we saw in Q1. The stock components of the acronym known as FANG is the dominant reason for the strong market performance. FANG stands for Facebook, Apple, Netflix, Google. Bottom line: These very-large-cap tech-oriented stocks drove the averages like S&P or NASDAQ to new all-time highs in Q2 of 2017. In the ETF world, some exchange-traded funds held between 25% and 40% weight in those few stocks.

Soft Brexit? Hard Brexit? Brutal Exit with No Deal?

Author: Bill Witherell, Ph.D., Post Date: June 14, 2017

Anxiety about the future course of the United Kingdom’s negotiations with the European Union (EU) has surged following the surprising outcome of the parliamentary elections last Thursday, in which Prime Minister Theresa May’s Conservative Party lost its majority, resulting in a “hung Parliament.” May called the early election, fully expecting an increase in the Conservative […]

Joseph & The US Stock Market

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: June 13, 2017

Joseph (as in Abraham, Isaac, and Jacob) was the first (maybe) successful economist mentioned in the Bible. Why do we say that? Answer: he was data driven.

Joseph didn’t have to deal with tweets. Let’s fast-forward a few thousand years.

Washington chaos is now reducing the odds of the Trump tax/economic agenda ever coming to fruition. We do not know what is going to happen with tax reform or tax cuts, with repatriation, with deficit spending, with the debt limit, with the budget, with infrastructure, with healthcare, with the climate-change agenda (if any), with foreign policy, with the Voice of America (Bannon is going to run it), or with Cuba.

Kilimanjaro

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: June 7, 2017

Hemingway’s writing alternately flows between retrospective stream of consciousness and the present, between the internal and private place that is uniquely known only to each of us and the public behavior that may or may not be under our control.

That has also been the tenor of the conversation we have enjoyed privately on this trip, contrasted with the interactions and observations made during two weeks on three continents while interfacing with the diversity of the human form and spirit.

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Please feel free to forward our commentaries (with proper attribution) to others who may be interested.

For a list of all equity recommendations for the past year, please contact Timothy J. Lyle at 800-257-7013, ext. 350. It is not our intention to state or imply in any manner that past results and profitability is an indication of future performance. All material presented is compiled from sources believed to be reliable. However, accuracy cannot be guaranteed.

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