Market Commentary


Looking IRMA in the Eye – III

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: September 11, 2017
Hurrican Irma

Irma is over in Sarasota and all Cumberland staff are accounted for and unharmed.  Many left town, but a couple are in temporary shelters.  Power went out at our house about 8:00 PM yesterday, but in a split second the generator kicked in and purred like a kitten all night.  We were the only light […]

Looking Irma in the Eye

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: September 10, 2017
Hurrican Irma

Many thanks for all emails and good wishes. Here are some answers to questions received in last two hours. I’m in Sarasota. We live in zone A and had mandatory evacuation. We are six miles inland staying in a private shuttered home with friends. We have a tornado room, water, food, flashlights, inflated raft, etc. […]

US Hurricanes and the Bond Market

Author: John R. Mousseau, CFA & Gabriel Hament, Post Date: September 8, 2017
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary

There has been much written over the years about the effects of hurricanes on equity markets. Clearly, such calamities have caused drop-offs in economic activity, followed by upticks in spending and consumption as affected areas rebuild. There is also considerable literature on the effects of large storms on property and casualty (P&C) companies. Generally speaking, these companies pay out substantial claims after the storms but usually benefit down the road as they obtain pricing power for future insurance premiums.

We wanted to look at some of the major storms in the United States to see if we could discern any trends or effects from these meteorological events on the bond markets.

Leen’s Lodge Labor Day Musings

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: September 5, 2017

1. The test of wills with North Korea intensifies, as all observers of this news flow confirm. 2. The revisions in Friday’s employment report were disconcerting. 3. The central bank picture remains fuzzy as divergence in policy makes interest-rate forecasting more difficult.

Hurricane Harvey – Unprecedented Event?

Author: Patricia Healy, CFA, Post Date: August 30, 2017

Our thoughts go out to all those displaced or injured, those who had homes and businesses destroyed, and especially those who lost loved ones. Many of us have been glued to the TV, focused on the news surrounding the devastating damage that has occurred and is continuing to occur at the time of this writing. […]

Debt Ceiling Part II

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: August 29, 2017

Bullets on the debt-ceiling charade: 1. No one expects the US to default. So why has the credit default swap (CDS) on the US risen in price? Answer: Bond market agents want to add a little insurance just in case American politics deliver a negative surprise. 2. The short end of the US Treasury curve […]

Inflation and the FOMC: Minutes of July 2017

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: August 28, 2017

For many years, the so-called Phillips curve has provided the inflation forecast framework underlying much of the FOMC’s policy discussions.  Yet both before and especially after the financial crisis, the Fed and FOMC members have consistently under-forecasted inflation.  A new working paper from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia adds to what is now a […]

Emerging-Market Rally Has Further to Run

Author: Bill Witherell, Ph.D., Post Date: August 25, 2017

Emerging market equities are continuing to outperform remarkably this year. While a pullback seems overdue, there are a number of reasons to expect the trend to remain upward, perhaps for several years more. The iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF, EEM, is up 28.19% year-to-date August 24. The Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF, VWO, has gained […]

Biggest Rainbow Trout

Author: , Post Date: August 24, 2017

The biggest rainbow trout I ever caught lives at the Keystone (Colorado) Village Ice Rink, a five-acre lake at 9321 feet above sea level. Here is that wonderful fish, held by Matt Campanella, a skilled fly fishing guide. Keystone is best known for winter sports like skiing and for its eponymous conference center. The lake […]

What is Camp Kotok???

Author: Sharon Prizant, Post Date: August 23, 2017
Camp Kotok Maine 2017 - David Kotok, Susan Collins and Sharon Prizant

What is Camp Kotok??? This is not a routine Cumberland Advisors Commentary!  Rather than offering commentary on issues and events of importance to the investment and advisory community, this Commentary reports on a very unique and special event for the investment and advisory community known as “Camp Kotok”, held annually at Leen’s Lodge in Grand […]

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For a list of all equity recommendations for the past year, please contact Timothy J. Lyle at 800-257-7013, ext. 350. It is not our intention to state or imply in any manner that past results and profitability is an indication of future performance. All material presented is compiled from sources believed to be reliable. However, accuracy cannot be guaranteed.