Market Commentary


Quick Note on Hurricane Maria and Insured Puerto Rico Bonds

Author: John R. Mousseau, CFA, Post Date: September 20, 2017
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary

Hurricane Maria slammed into Puerto Rico today as a Category 5 storm. Our hearts and prayers go out to the citizens of Puerto Rico, as we know this storm will cause extensive damage to the Commonwealth. Though uninsured Puerto Rico bonds have traded somewhat lower in price, insured Puerto Rico debt has actually traded up […]

Accelerating Relief Efforts by Making Each Dollar Count

Author: Gabriel Hament, Post Date: September 19, 2017
Gabriel Hament, Foundations and Charitable Accounts, Cumberland Advisors

In the wake of the twin tragedies of Hurricanes Harvey and Irma, here at Cumberland we are doing what we can to assist and support those organizations that are efficiently deploying resources to help vulnerable households regroup and get back on their feet. We have all heard the stories and statistics about  the suffering, loss […]

3Q2017 Review: US ETF

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: September 18, 2017
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary by David Kotok

We end the third quarter of 2017 with a nearly fully invested US stock market ETF portfolio. We favor the financials and have added to the insurance weight. We expect economic growth to continue for some time, and we expect the US market to reflect the added economic activity that comes from replacement and rebuilding post-hurricanes. We think investors will like the results of the fourth quarter of this year and into 2018.

The Wrath of Irma

Author: Patricia Healy, CFA, Post Date: September 15, 2017
Hurrican Irma

It was a short two weeks ago that I wrote a commentary titled “Hurricane Harvey – Unprecedented Event?” Harvey ended up being two events, the hurricane and then extensive, protracted rain and flooding. And here I am now, writing about another unprecedented event: Hurricane Irma, which hit the Caribbean and most of Florida as a […]

Market Correlations: Margin Debt, High Yield, and Ten-Year Bond

Author: Leo Chen, Ph.D., Post Date: September 13, 2017
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary - Leo Chen, Ph.D.

Financial markets often present cross-sectional correlations throughout many asset classes. For example, while crude oil and the energy sector tend to move in sync, gold and equity like to move in opposite directions. Besides the usual suspects in past asset-correlation studies, we would like to point out one important, yet usually overlooked, factor—margin debt. Sometime […]

Irma Farewell

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: September 12, 2017
Hurrican Irma

Little things happen in a hurricane. Example: When the wind is blowing counterclockwise on the Gulf of Mexico coast, it pushes the waterline away from the shore. Manatees get stranded in the mud ( People are more mobile than manatees. One wonders, however, about their relative intelligence. Some people in Tampa walked out, following the […]

Looking IRMA in the Eye – III

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: September 11, 2017
Hurrican Irma

Irma is over in Sarasota and all Cumberland staff are accounted for and unharmed.  Many left town, but a couple are in temporary shelters.  Power went out at our house about 8:00 PM yesterday, but in a split second the generator kicked in and purred like a kitten all night.  We were the only light […]

Looking Irma in the Eye

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: September 10, 2017
Hurrican Irma

Many thanks for all emails and good wishes. Here are some answers to questions received in last two hours. I’m in Sarasota. We live in zone A and had mandatory evacuation. We are six miles inland staying in a private shuttered home with friends. We have a tornado room, water, food, flashlights, inflated raft, etc. […]

US Hurricanes and the Bond Market

Author: John R. Mousseau, CFA & Gabriel Hament, Post Date: September 8, 2017
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary

There has been much written over the years about the effects of hurricanes on equity markets. Clearly, such calamities have caused drop-offs in economic activity, followed by upticks in spending and consumption as affected areas rebuild. There is also considerable literature on the effects of large storms on property and casualty (P&C) companies. Generally speaking, these companies pay out substantial claims after the storms but usually benefit down the road as they obtain pricing power for future insurance premiums.

We wanted to look at some of the major storms in the United States to see if we could discern any trends or effects from these meteorological events on the bond markets.

Leen’s Lodge Labor Day Musings

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: September 5, 2017

1. The test of wills with North Korea intensifies, as all observers of this news flow confirm. 2. The revisions in Friday’s employment report were disconcerting. 3. The central bank picture remains fuzzy as divergence in policy makes interest-rate forecasting more difficult.

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For a list of all equity recommendations for the past year, please contact Timothy J. Lyle at 800-257-7013, ext. 350. It is not our intention to state or imply in any manner that past results and profitability is an indication of future performance. All material presented is compiled from sources believed to be reliable. However, accuracy cannot be guaranteed.