Market Commentary



Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: June 4, 2017

On the Serengeti, some two million wildebeests are moving in their annual ritual of migration. It is a remarkable sight to behold. From the tent at the Sabora Grumeti camp, a look out among the Acacia trees reveals hundreds. They include the single bachelors, circling, grunting and seeking to fulfill their natural instinct. It is […]

How Long Will It Take?

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: May 30, 2017

The main surprise in the minutes of the FOMC’s May meeting, released last week, was the brief discussion of a staff presentation outlining a proposed approach to normalizing the Fed’s balance sheet when the Fed stops reinvesting maturing securities. Briefly, the proposal is to establish an announced, sequentially declining set of caps, or upper limits, […]

Li’l Abner

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: May 24, 2017

Garrett Graff’s recent article in Politico magazine offers a telling glimpse into the character and ethics of two key players in the investigation of President Trump’s connections to Russia. Flashback to March 2004: “When Jim Comey first learned that Andrew Card and Alberto Gonzales were on their way to the George Washington Hospital room of […]

Global Interdependence Center Quarterly Bulletin

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: May 20, 2017

GIC saw a great start to the new year with programs in Philadelphia, Sarasota, and our first event in San Diego, as well as conferences in Singapore and Madrid. We welcomed an impressive lineup of speakers to discuss topics such as Chinese direct investment, financial technology, monetary policy, and the economic outlook for Europe, China […]

Obstruction of Justice & Markets

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: May 19, 2017

The words are powerful as is the concept. “Obstruction of justice” is a term in law. Here is a reference by the Cornell Law School: Here are the operative sentences that are now altering markets and the economic outlook: “§ 1503 applies only to federal judicial proceedings. Under § 1505, however, a defendant can […]

The Eurozone Economies Lead Global Momentum Trends

Author: Bill Witherell, Ph.D, Post Date: May 17, 2017

The pace of global economic growth is picking up after several years of weak performance.  First-quarter results indicated a widespread advance at a modest pace, and leading indicators for the first month of the second quarter confirm the continuation of a solid and broad-based expansion in both manufacturing and services. The J.P. Morgan Global All-Industry […]

Trump Firing Comey

Author: John R. Mousseau, CFA, Post Date: May 15, 2017

President Trump’s firing of FBI Director James Comey sent a shot across Washington’s bow last week. Republicans and Democrats alike questioned the timing of the action and professed unease with the firing. Here at Cumberland we are concerned with financial markets. And our concern is whether Congressional preoccupation with the firing and its aftermath will affect the reforms that have already been proposed and partially passed.

See Gifted

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: May 13, 2017
Gifted Movie, 2017

See Gifted. Go right now. Do not pass “Go.” Do not wait. The theme is thinking. Pondering and applying oneself and recognizing weakness and strengths and pursuing depth of knowledge. And respecting philosophy and integrity and also recognizing systemic corruption, including the influences of money and lawyers and our system.

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