Market Commentary


France Notebook

Author: Bill Witherell, Ph.D., Post Date: June 8, 2018

We are back in Southern France, in the town of Bonnieux, perched on a hilltop in the Luberon region of Provence, far from the hustle of Paris. The country has recently endured a record number of thunderstorms, which have caused some serious flooding, and continues to experience a series of rail and airline strikes. However, […]

Predictions: a follow up

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: June 6, 2018

In our recent commentary “Predictions,” we quoted Daniel Kahneman and the story of the cost overruns and prolonged construction period associated with the Scottish Parliament Building. The project’s troubles didn’t end when the ribbon was cut. Brian Barnier, who is a voracious reader, sent me the article linked below, detailing the urgent repairs necessitated by […]


Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: June 4, 2018

“It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” Yogi Berra made this quote famous, though its origins are disputed. On May 31, we published a note entitled “Jobs for Everyone”(see Many readers replied, and the views were diverse, as you might expect. We thank all those who sent a comment. Eddie Dawes wrote […]

Jobs for Everyone?

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: May 31, 2018

In the May 10th edition of the Economist, an article entitled “Make work can’t work” (p. 25 in the print edition) considered the Democratic proposal for a jobs guarantee in United States. It opened as follows: “In April, America’s unemployment rate fell to 3.9%, its lowest since December 2000. That is not good enough for […]

FOMC Minutes – May 2018

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: May 25, 2018
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary by Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D.

The FOMC minutes are designed to provide a concise summary of the presentations and discussions that take place at FOMC meetings and the context behind the terse press release provided at the end of each meeting. Presumably, this communication device is meant to provide added color and a sense of where policy may be going. […]

Kim, Trump, Thucydides

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: May 24, 2018
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary by David Kotok

Trump’s cancellation of the Kim summit meeting clearly draws lines in the sand. Trump’s position cannot now be reversed for a longer period of time than was contemplated just hours ago. We now have an unpredictable escalation path. Kim’s behavior in destroying tunnels, underground mountain rail lines, and other parts of his nuclear test site […]

Brian Barnier Guest Commentary – A Concise, Practical Seminar on Root-Cause Analysis

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: May 23, 2018
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary by David Kotok

My friend and fishing buddy Brian Barnier is Director and Head of Analytics for ValueBridge Advisors (US) and Burnt Oak Capital (UK). He focuses on growing companies and investments through an emphasis on the application of technology to process improvement and the understanding of product, market, and economic trends. He has an analytical edge in […]

Thucydides–Part 3

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: May 15, 2018

In book five of The History of the Peloponnesian War, Thucydides describes how the Athenians sustained surprisingly large losses in battle and how the Spartans prevailed. He also describes what each side didn’t know about the condition of the other side. Problems arise when decisions are based on incomplete information. Athens didn’t know of the […]

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