Market Commentary


Fed Balance Sheet, Bonds, Fishing

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: May 12, 2017

We’ve had seven client/consultant/prospect speeches and meetings in the last week. The hottest topic has been the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet and what changes in it will mean for markets. Here are some points to consider. Some are retrospective, and some are prospective and therefore conjectural. Warning: This is a 12–15 minute read. Until the […]

Sell in May – But Don’t Walk Away II

Author: Leo Chen, Ph.D., Post Date: May 9, 2017

Contrarianism is a classic investment style that acts against predominant market trends. A rule of thumb of contrarian investing is “buy when others sell and sell when others buy.” Of course, the actual process requires much more complex analysis than just that.

GDP, Trade, Markets

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: May 8, 2017

Bob Parker, longtime head of GDP accounts at the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis, personal friend, and organizational (NABE, NBEIC) colleague, helped me develop a simplified approach to understanding the impact of President Trump’s policy on trade, as best we know it. Many thanks to him for his guidance. We created a very simple […]

Trump Tax Bill and Property Taxes

Author: John R. Mousseau, CFA & Gabriel Hament, Post Date: May 5, 2017

The Trump tax proposal includes the elimination of state and local tax deductibility from federal taxes. From a local taxation standpoint, the other potential large effect of the bill is the elimination of property tax deductions from federal taxes. If passed as constructed, this bill will hit towns and cities with high property taxes right in the jaw. It will be particularly onerous for townships that rely on local property taxes for the majority of their revenue and hurt those towns that do not have much in the way of ratable business properties.

Puerto Rico Bankruptcy Historic… But Not Unexpected

Author: Shaun Burgess, Post Date: May 4, 2017

For the first time in American history, a United States territory will seek what is essentially bankruptcy relief in federal court. Puerto Rico made headlines today with the Financial Oversight and Management Board’s (FOMB) decision to approve the usage of Title III to restructure the island’s debt. Although the move is unfortunate, it was our […]

How North Korea Views the Situation on the Peninsula

Author: George Friedman, Post Date: May 3, 2017

George Friedman is chairman of Geopolitical Futures, which he founded in 2015. Prior to that he was chairman and leading professional at Stratfor. George and wife Meredith have been guests for a meal or two. He and I also greatly enjoyed his visit to Camp Kotok for a fishing adventure that included lots of serious […]

The Mutual Fund Conundrum

Author: Laura Mattia Ph.D., CFP®, Post Date: May 2, 2017

With the close of Financial Literacy Month, we explore how limited financial knowledge can impact a household’s financial health. A high percentage of Americans don’t possess the necessary “financial literacy” to make good financial decisions[1] The increasing complexity of financial products is magnified by the asymmetric information available between institutional sellers and retail buyers. These […]

About Taxes!

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: May 1, 2017

About Taxes! by David R. Kotok. Some quick bullets. Markets like lower taxes. People like lower taxes. Businesses like lower taxes. Devils always lurk in the details: those devils are put there by Congress. Congress will lose if it attempts to block a tax cut. Voters understand lower tax rates and want them. Voters do not focus on longer-term deficit projections. Voters do not care about CBO scoring or a change from static scoring to dynamic scoring. Most voters care more about the ballgame score or the book club than about CBO’s long-term projections. Conclusion: some form of a tax cut is coming.

France and Europe Dodge Bullet, Yet Risks Still Ahead

Author: Bill Witherell, Ph.D, Post Date: April 28, 2017

Markets in France, Europe, and globally are rallying as they breathe a sigh of relief following the first round of the French presidential election on Sunday. The pro-business centrist candidate Emmanuel Macron came in first, beating the far-right National Front candidate, Marine Le Pen. Recent economic news for France underpins the strength of French stocks.

Quick Take on Munis and the Trump Plan

Author: John R. Mousseau, CFA, Post Date: April 27, 2017

The Trump administration unveiled their tax plan yesterday, with details to follow. It will take a while to work the plan through Congress but this is Cumberland Advisors quick take on how the plan affects municipal bonds and municipal finance.

cumber map

Cumberland Advisors® is registered with the SEC under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940. All information contained herein is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a solicitation or offer to sell securities or investment advisory services. Such an offer can only be made in the states where Cumberland Advisors is either registered or is a Notice Filer or where an exemption from such registration or filing is available. New accounts will not be accepted unless and until all local regulations have been satisfied. This presentation does not purport to be a complete description of our performance or investment services.

Please feel free to forward our commentaries (with proper attribution) to others who may be interested.

For a list of all equity recommendations for the past year, please contact Timothy J. Lyle at 800-257-7013, ext. 350. It is not our intention to state or imply in any manner that past results and profitability is an indication of future performance. All material presented is compiled from sources believed to be reliable. However, accuracy cannot be guaranteed.