Market Commentary


Oh, Those Financials!

Author: David Kotok, Post Date: October 12, 2009

Oh, financials, financials, financials.  Here we go again.  JPMorgan Chase reports quarterly profits on Wednesday; Citi announces a quarterly loss on Thursday, Bank of America delivers its results (no one knows if loss or profit) on Friday.  The parade will continue right through Halloween. Cumberland does not use single stocks in its US equity account […]

Investing in a Weak-Dollar Global Economy

Author: Bill Witherell, Post Date: October 10, 2009

Last weekend, in the margins of the G-7 meeting in Istanbul, Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner told reporters that it is “very important” to have a strong dollar and that the US will do “everything necessary” to maintain confidence in the dollar  He acknowledged that this meant getting the US budget deficit under control.  These words […]

Ed Yardeni on Policy

Author: David Kotok, Post Date: October 8, 2009

Note to readers:  Ed Yardeni opened his daily missive today with the text below.  We requested permission to reproduce it here and thank Ed for giving us the same.   Ed has written it better than my draft so I scrapped mine and am pleased to be able to share his words with our readers.   Full […]

The Fed Exit and the Role of BLOBS – Part 2

Author: David Kotok and Bob Eisenbeis, Post Date: October 4, 2009

This commentary is jointly written by Bob Eisenbeis and David Kotok; their bios may be found at Note to Readers:  This is the second of our two-part commentary on the Fed’s exit strategy and the role the Fed has played in complicating its own operating strategies and ability to conduct monetary policy.  The Fed […]

The Fed Exit and the Role of BLOBS – Part 1

Author: David Kotok and Bob Eisenbeis, Post Date: October 2, 2009

This commentary is jointly written by Bob Eisenbeis and David Kotok; their bios may be found at Note to Readers: This is the first of a two-part commentary motivated by speeches and editorials from Federal Reserve officials about possible exit strategies from its current quantitative easing policies. We comment on some problems that the […]

The Pittsburgh G-20 – Does It Matter?

Author: Bill Witherell, Post Date: September 29, 2009

The second G-20 Summit meeting was held in Pittsburgh last week. There were no market-moving surprises in the outcome. The decisions taken were largely signaled by the preparatory meeting of finance ministers and central bank governors on September 4 and 5 in London.  While the press accounts suggest the results were modest, perhaps because of […]

Iran, Nukes, War & Markets

Author: David Kotok, Post Date: September 26, 2009

Iran.   Remember the old story about the kid and cookie jar?  “If you do that one more time, I will punish you,” says the mom.  This latest two-months so-called “line in the sand” is not the first, nor the second, nor the third time.  The only thing different now is that the Brits (Brown), the […]

Pay or No Pay?

Author: Bob Eisenbeis, Post Date: September 24, 2009

In a move that has become the typical Washington modus operandi, but one that has traditionally been un-Fed-like, word was leaked to the Wall Street Journal about the Federal Reserve’s intention to regulate banker pay.   This parallels the growing international focus on limiting executive compensation, because of its presumed role in inducing more risk taking […]

Tires, Chickens, and Trade – One Week Later

Author: Bill Witherell, Post Date: September 23, 2009

In the week following President Obama’s imposition of tariffs on Chinese tires, some commentators expressed confidence that the resulting trade dispute would be well-contained by the two countries and argued that the President had to throw some “red meat” to his trade union supporters.  Other, including this writer, expressed concerns that this move could be […]

Did Policy Economists Get It That Wrong?

Author: Bob Eisenbeis, Post Date: September 21, 2009

It has become fashionable for commentators to bash economists for having missed the financial crisis of 2007-2009.  Nobel Prize winner Robert Lucas provided a recent rebuttal to critics in a guest article in The Economist of August 6, 2009.  Unfortunately, it was a rather unconvincing effort.  More recently, Nobel laureate Paul Krugman, in his NY […]

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