Market Commentary

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Subpoena the Fed?

Author: David Kotok, Post Date: January 27, 2010

On our website, under Reports, you will find the letter of Congressman Darrell Issa, Towns012610.pdf, requesting the subpoena of documents from the Federal Reserve. We want to offer some very quick thoughts in the heat of politics now casting a major pall over financial markets and economic decisions. This is a week filled with politics […]

Cross-Currents in the Eurozone

Author: Bill Witherell, Post Date: January 26, 2010

Last week the euro declined against the US dollar by1.8%, despite all the negatives that hit the US markets and drove the S&P 500 down by 3.9% in the worst week since last March. Greece, with an economy that is only a tenth the size of Germany’s, was at the center of last week’s turmoil. […]

The Non-Meeting Meeting

Author: Bob Eisenbeis, Post Date:

The FOMC meets this week amid scant public discussion of what it might or might not do or what the statement might or might not say.  That this is happening is not surprising but understandable.  The fact of the matter is that although the meeting is scheduled for today and Wednesday, it should only take […]

Stocks, VIX, Obama Administration & Uncertainty

Author: David Kotok, Post Date: January 23, 2010

US stock markets have lost over a half a trillion dollars in market cap since Massachusetts affirmed an American political inflection point on Tuesday night.  The preliminary indicator of that inflection point occurred in November, when New Jersey and Virginia elected Republican governors.  Each of these was explained away by punditry.  But MA put the […]

I’m Mad as Hell and I Am Not Going to Take it Anymore

Author: David Kotok, Post Date: January 19, 2010

The title of this missive comes from “Network” an award winning 1976 American satirical film.  We remember it then and respect it now. “I’m mad as hell and I’m not gonna take it any more.” In New Jersey and Virginia last year and in Massachusetts this year, the American public awoke from its stupor and […]

To Tax or Not To Tax

Author: Bob Eisenbeis, Post Date:

President Obama has announced his intention to pursue legislation that would impost a 15-basis-point tax on uninsured liabilities of financial institutions greater than $50 billion in size.  This proposal will strike a positive tone from a populist perspective and be politically popular.  While in no way condoning the behavior of many of our major financial […]

The Fed’s $1.25 Trillion Gambit

Author: David Kotok, Post Date: January 14, 2010

Abstract: This 3000-word paper offers observations about the Fed’s $1.25 trillion mortgage purchase program, the Fed’s “profits” of $46 billion, and the policy issues involved in them. It also comments on Fed interest-rate policy and the Fed’s forthcoming possible difficulties. We thank our colleagues at Cumberland, and especially Bob Eisenbeis, for assistance. We also thank […]

Jobs? Glass Half Full? Half Empty? Or Broken?

Author: David Kotok, Post Date: January 11, 2010

To be blunt: in our view the jobs data were plainly miserable and disappointing.  Like many of our readers, I listened to the debate on CNBC and read numerous analyses.  We will set aside the perennial optimists who find positive outcomes in any data set.  Simply put: a 10% unemployment rate and a 17.3% underemployment […]

It Was Only a Paper Moon

Author: David Kotok, Post Date: January 7, 2010

The rarity of a New Years Eve blue moon has now morphed to a waning gibbous form as the moon leads reveling partygoers back to an early January reality.  We will summarize some of the investment strategy themes for the start of this century’s second decade.  The bullets follow. 1.  2010 will be the year […]

Global Asset Allocation in 2010

Author: Bill Witherell, Post Date: January 6, 2010

Last year, 2009, global asset markets recovered from what in most cases were the steepest declines since the Great Depression, as the global economy emerged from a severe financial crisis.  Markets overshot on the downside, becoming quite oversold as the bottom was reached last March. This added to the sharpness of the subsequent recovery.  The […]

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