Market Commentary


The Drunk and The Liquor Store

Author: David Kotok, Post Date: September 21, 2009

A few thousand miles of flying gives one a chance to catch up on some research reports. In this case the stack was about the debt-to-GDP ratio and what it means. It is clear that the United States is on a borrowing binge. And also clear that the Nancy Pelosi-led US Congress has no will […]

Kicking Tires, Playing Chicken: a Misstep on Trade

Author: Bill Witherell, Post Date: September 15, 2009

Last Friday, September 11, President Barack Obama signed an order to impose a duty of 35% on Chinese tire imports, on top of the existing 4% tariff. This was the first major trade action of the new administration, following a campaign marked by strong statements on trade that generated concerns about protectionism and assurances that […]

Reflection on 9/11

Author: David Kotok, Post Date: September 12, 2009

It has been two pensive days. Somehow the words won’t come. Difficult for me since I write 100 times a year. I sit staring at the keyboard. No words. Everyone is/was so busy with 9/11. Public moments of silence, ceremonies, TV filled with remembrances, talk shows, websites, commentaries, footage of planes and fires and people. […]

More on Gold and the CUMB-E Index of Federal Reserve Policy Flexibility

Author: Bob Eisenbeis, Post Date: September 8, 2009

Notice to Readers: Cumberland will be discontinuing publication of one of the two CUMB-E indices of Federal Reserve Policy Flexibility. Specifically, we will no longer maintain the CUMB-E (Gold) Index. What follows is a detailed explanation for this decision. On August 24th, we introduced the CUMB-E Index of Federal Reserve Policy Flexibility ( The purpose […]

Bankers and Beavers

Author: David Kotok, Post Date: September 6, 2009

Drive north on US Route 1 about 2 miles from Princeton, Maine and turn right on Telephone Road.  Five miles of gravel takes you to the edge of Tomah Stream, a serene, magical place on the edge of the Passamaquoddy Indian reservation. We turned onto Telephone Road.  The BlackBerry still had one bar, and there […]

Hanoi, Singapore, Shanghai, Hong Kong and GIC

Author: David Kotok, Post Date: September 3, 2009

Hanoi, Singapore, Shanghai and Hong Kong are the four city stops on a pair of GIC programs coming up in the next few months.  Longtime readers know that Cumberland Advisors is a proud sponsor of the Global Interdependence Center and its initiatives to enhance global dialogue about important issues.   We will have the privilege of […]

Japan Votes for a Change

Author: Bill Witherell, Post Date: August 31, 2009

On Sunday the Japanese electorate gave the center-left Democratic party (DJP) a landslide victory, ejecting the conservative Liberal Democrats (LPD). The latter has been the ruling party for more than half a century, except for an 11-month period in 1993-4. Japanese voters, suffering an economy that has been deflating for most of the past 10 […]

Sugar High or Acid Trip?

Author: David Kotok, Post Date:

Years ago Charles Goodhart minted an eponymous law that is applicable today in financial markets. Last week, Pimco’s Mohammed El-Erian coined the metaphor “sugar high.” He was talking about the converse of Goodhart’s Law. We think he wasn’t harsh enough; hence, we use the metaphor “LSD.” The 99th edition of Pears Cyclopaedia (1990-1, pp. G27, […]

Weekend Reading About the VA (Veterans Administration)

Author: David Kotok, Post Date: August 28, 2009

Dear readers: This is a little longer than usual. It contains excerpts from the responses to our suggestion that the Veterans Administration be examined as a part of the ongoing debate about a federal healthcare system. We argued that the US already has one and that the Congress should look at it. Responses are below. […]

The End of Bank Secrecy?

Author: Bill Witherell, Post Date: August 26, 2009

This past week the Swiss Government agreed to reveal to the US Internal Revenue Service the names of 4450 Americans holding offshore accounts at UBS. In the previous week Liechtenstein agreed to a tax-information sharing treaty with the UK. This agreement is expected to serve as a model for treaties with other countries.  Also, the […]

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