Market Commentary


India Votes for Stability and Growth

Author: Bill Witherell, Post Date: May 22, 2009

On May 16, the results of a month-long election in the world’s largest democracy were announced.  India’s 420 million voters had decisively supported the Congress Party-led government of Manmohan Singh. This note discusses the implications of this election for India and for international investors. India’s population, the second largest in the world, has often appeared […]

Strategy Update Plus Victoria Falls

Author: David Kotok, Post Date: May 20, 2009

Some bullets on different asset classes follow. US Stocks  It appears that the March 9 low is seriously established.  Since then, the market has powered higher with broadened participation.  The market has confirmed a determined upward bias.  We can see evidence of this broadening by examining the S&P 500 Index and its component parts four […]

Football and Financial Regulatory Reform

Author: Bob Eisenbeis, Post Date: May 19, 2009

Professional football has a lot to tell us about financial reform, and in particular what we should seek to achieve.   A comparison also suggests a way to think about restructuring the financial regulatory system. In pro football, there are rules and regulations which govern three key aspects of the game.  One set lays out the […]

Quick Bullets

Author: David Kotok, Post Date: May 7, 2009

Quick bullets: 1)  Some of our cash-reserve contingency, built as the swine flu risk intensified, has been redeployed in US and foreign markets.  Longer-term swine flu risk for the next flu season remains.  The race between the technology of vaccine development and the clock ticking toward autumn is now underway. 2) Bank Stress test data […]

Stress Tests & Tim Geithner’s Bar Mitzvah

Author: David Kotok, Post Date: May 5, 2009

Thursday is stress test day. Not on a treadmill, but it may just as well be so. We are now going to add some Geithner-Bernanke-Summers-esque formula of bank strength or weakness assessment to an already long list that includes Tier 1, Tier 2, TCE, and CAMELS and BOPEC. Tier 1 and 2 capital measures are […]

The Deepening Recession In Europe

Author: Bill Witherell, Post Date: May 4, 2009

In its latest, very gloomy “World Economic Outlook” (available at the International Monetary Fund revised sharply downward its economic growth projections for the euro area, to – 4.2% for the current year, followed by -0.4% in 2010. The most recent OECD projections for the region, published in March (available at are almost identical […]

Swine Flu Strategy Update

Author: David Kotok, Post Date: May 3, 2009

Type A, H1N1 “swine flu” responses range from complete complacency to proactive prevention.  We see both in the United States and elsewhere in the world.  Some of the leading epidemiologists at the Milken Institute Global Conference give this version of flu a 50-50 chance to be a large-scale killer, according to Barron’s journalist, and my […]

Investing Globally Under an International Health Emergency Alert

Author: Bill Witherell, Post Date: April 29, 2009

The World Health Organization (WHO) on Monday evening, April 27, raised the level of the influenza pandemic alert to “Phase 4.” This means that while a pandemic is not inevitable, the risk that one will occur is “significant”. A WHO spokesman indicated that any attempts to contain its spread have been abandoned and they are […]

Mexico Back to Zero

Author: Bill Witherell, Post Date: April 28, 2009

Things had finally started to look up for Mexico following a steep economic contraction in the fourth quarter of 2008 (GDP down -10.3%) and the first quarter of 2009 (-12%) and an increasingly violent drug war.  President Obama’s visit to Mexico City signaled increased American support in the battle with the drug gangs and, more […]

Swine Flu, Bird Flu, Human Flu

Author: David Kotok, Post Date: April 27, 2009

We’ll use this commentary to address the current flu scare. First, some short notes on public health issues, and then we will discuss portfolio strategies. We’ve consolidated previous bird flu publications and posted it on our website (Link is no longer available). We recommend the CDC website as a bookmarked spot for reliable information […]

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