Market Commentary


Rollover Risk

Author: David Kotok, Post Date: February 10, 2010

Tonight on Larry Kudlow’s show I listened to a gang of four first bash Greece, then the ECB and then the EU.  They forecast the demise of the euro and the collapse of the EU.  I couldn’t disagree more.  Today I had to explain to a good friend and client why all $2.8 trillion of […]

Currency Market Volatility

Author: Bill Witherell, Post Date: February 8, 2010

Currency markets have become highly volatile, sparking a global retreat from risk and into the “safe haven” currencies, the US dollar and Japanese yen. It looks like this volatility will be with us for a while. In this note we will discuss some of the factors underlying the current market turbulence and suggest some implications […]

Greece and an Ode to Simonides

Author: David Kotok, Post Date:

Public sector workers in Greece are preparing to strike this week.  They oppose the plan to reduce their wages and pensions.  These payments are more than half of the Greek budget.  Greece’s estimated 2009 deficit was 12.7% of GDP.  If the proposed austerity measures are enacted, the proposed 2010 budget deficit will be 8.7% of […]

BABs Extension Will Aid the Tax-Free Bond Market

Author: John Mousseau, Post Date: February 1, 2010

Bloomberg News reported yesterday that President Obama will ask Congress to make permanent the temporary Build America Bonds program (BABs) by which the Federal government subsidizes interest payments to state and local government issuers.  We think this has a number of benefits for the tax-exempt municipal bond market and municipal bonds in general. Under current […]


Author: David Kotok, Post Date:

Rafael Carrillo bursts with enthusiasm and effervescing hospitality.  His family-run restaurant is El Churrasco Restaurante.  His family-run hotel is La Hospederia de El Churrasco.  You can find them in the old city of Cordoba on Romero Street near the ancient Jewish quarter, the mosque, and the old city gate, Puerta de Almodovar. Lunch was delicious […]

Madrid, Saturday Night, January 30, 2010

Author: David Kotok, Post Date: January 30, 2010

Goya, Velazquez and El Greco provide an excellent distraction from world economics as we walk in the Prado with some NBEIC colleagues.  We are here for the quarterly meeting of the National Business Economics Issues Council. Madrid is cold but the skies are clear.  The moon is full.  Lovely young women in short skirts with […]

Subpoena the Fed?

Author: David Kotok, Post Date: January 27, 2010

On our website, under Reports, you will find the letter of Congressman Darrell Issa, Towns012610.pdf, requesting the subpoena of documents from the Federal Reserve. We want to offer some very quick thoughts in the heat of politics now casting a major pall over financial markets and economic decisions. This is a week filled with politics […]

Cross-Currents in the Eurozone

Author: Bill Witherell, Post Date: January 26, 2010

Last week the euro declined against the US dollar by1.8%, despite all the negatives that hit the US markets and drove the S&P 500 down by 3.9% in the worst week since last March. Greece, with an economy that is only a tenth the size of Germany’s, was at the center of last week’s turmoil. […]

The Non-Meeting Meeting

Author: Bob Eisenbeis, Post Date:

The FOMC meets this week amid scant public discussion of what it might or might not do or what the statement might or might not say.  That this is happening is not surprising but understandable.  The fact of the matter is that although the meeting is scheduled for today and Wednesday, it should only take […]

Stocks, VIX, Obama Administration & Uncertainty

Author: David Kotok, Post Date: January 23, 2010

US stock markets have lost over a half a trillion dollars in market cap since Massachusetts affirmed an American political inflection point on Tuesday night.  The preliminary indicator of that inflection point occurred in November, when New Jersey and Virginia elected Republican governors.  Each of these was explained away by punditry.  But MA put the […]

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