Market Commentary


Should the BRussiaICs Become the BICs?

Author: Bill Witherell, Post Date: July 7, 2009

At Cumberland Advisors, our answer, from the perspective of a global portfolio manager, is a strong “Yes.”  As we write, President Obama is in Moscow for his first Russian-American summit with his counterpart, President Dmitri Medvedev, along with Prime Minister Vladimir Putin.  The stated objective of both sides is to “reset” American-Russian relations. The agreements […]

What if the Fed were a bank?

Author: David Kotok& Bob Eisenbeis, Post Date:

Abstract:  Our joint commentary identifies two risk measures—capital ratios and duration—which may be helpful in assessing outcomes of the Fed’s exit strategy.  We have avoided a fully prepared technical paper and admit that the issues are complex for many of our readers.  To assist readers, we have divided this paper into two parts.  The first […]

The ABCs of California IOUs

Author: John Mousseau, Post Date: July 6, 2009

The state of California – the lowest-rated state in the union – has embarked on a program of issuing IOUs to vendors who are owed money by the state. This is a result of the budget stalemate in the California legislature and their inability to agree with the governor on the course of action to […]

Happy Birthday America

Author: David Kotok, Post Date: July 4, 2009

As we celebrate the nation’s birthday, we may wish to be mindful of the stress that many in our country are under.  We may try to be gracious in the face of adversity.  We can pause.  And reflect.  And give aid.  On Friday, in New York, I watched a caring person take 15 minutes to […]

Today’s lunch with Jim Bullard

Author: David Kotok, Post Date: June 30, 2009

In a most forthright and clear Fed statement, St. Louis Fed president James Bullard spoke on Fed exit strategies at a Global Interdependence Center luncheon today at the Philly Fed.    One can find the text of his slides and the videotape at .   Having some conversation with him and listening to his prepared remarks […]

Global Recovery In Sight, China A Locomotive

Author: Bill Witherell, Post Date: June 25, 2009

June is the month for mid-year revisions to economic forecasts by the major international financial organizations and other forecasters.  The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) released its new forecasts Wednesday, predicting that the deep global recession is nearing a bottom. It’s projections of world real GDP growth of -2.2% for 2009 and +2.3% […]

Personal Savings Rate to Rise. Also, Ask Bob Parker

Author: David Kotok, Post Date: June 24, 2009

The current and projected massive annual federal deficits trigger questions.  A big one is: how will the US finance this onslaught of debt and also find the necessary savings to invest in the economy so that growth can resume?   Don Rissmiller of Strategas argues that “Even if corporate profits rebound, it’s tough to see more […]

Florida, Florida, Florida & Clock Restaurant

Author: David Kotok, Post Date: June 21, 2009

Besides the oppressive heat and humidity, the most striking thing on my five-city, six-night Florida swing was the lack of traffic on the roads.  North-south interstates on both coasts (I-95 and I-75) flowed easily.  So did Alligator Alley when I drove across the state.  Florida went into recession nearly a year before the national economy.  […]

Obama’s Financial Regulatory Restructuring is an ‘Industrial Policy’

Author: David Kotok, Post Date: June 18, 2009

President Obama’s plan to restructure regulation of America’s financial system has some desirable elements.  It also has great danger. Eliminating certain banks that were exempted from supervision is appropriate.  So is the elimination of the Office of Thrift Supervision (OTS) one of the regulators of AIG.  Is there really a difference between a thrift charter […]

Interest Rates and the Policy Squeeze

Author: Bob Eisenbeis, Post Date: June 15, 2009

As Treasury and mortgage rates have risen, the question arises whether the Federal Reserve will accelerate its purchases of government debt and mortgage-related securities to force interest rates down closer to the 4.5% target that had been announced for mortgage rates some while ago.  But the prospect of purchasing more Treasuries is now exposing significant […]

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