Market Commentary


The Muni Market a Year (and change) After the Lehman Failure(What a Long Strange Trip It’s Been)

Author: John Mousseau, Post Date: October 20, 2009

John Mousseau is a portfolio manager and heads the tax-free Muni section of Cumberland. He is a member of the Management Committee of Cumberland Advisors. His bio is found at His email is A year ago the failure of Lehman Brothers (which we believe was avoidable, with responsive Federal Reserve action) sent the […]

Will the Europeans Be Eating Our Lunch?

Author: Bill Witherell, Post Date: October 19, 2009

The converse of the title above was asked by Business Week when the former socialist government in France introduced the 35-hour week.  As an American living in Paris at the time, this writer agreed that France and much of the rest of the Eurozone appeared likely to fall increasingly behind the US in the competition […]

Some Observations about Spot Interest Rates and Forward Interest Rates with help from Jason Benderly, Jim Bianco, Ned Davis & Howard Simons

Author: David Kotok, Post Date: October 18, 2009

“What’s going to happen to interest rates when the inflation comes?”  This is a recurring question in our quarterly client review meetings.  In a normal cycle one can make some reasonable projections about the changes in interest rates when the economy bottoms.  The usual sequence is that the Fed first allows the economic recovery to […]

Oh, Those Financials!

Author: David Kotok, Post Date: October 12, 2009

Oh, financials, financials, financials.  Here we go again.  JPMorgan Chase reports quarterly profits on Wednesday; Citi announces a quarterly loss on Thursday, Bank of America delivers its results (no one knows if loss or profit) on Friday.  The parade will continue right through Halloween. Cumberland does not use single stocks in its US equity account […]

Investing in a Weak-Dollar Global Economy

Author: Bill Witherell, Post Date: October 10, 2009

Last weekend, in the margins of the G-7 meeting in Istanbul, Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner told reporters that it is “very important” to have a strong dollar and that the US will do “everything necessary” to maintain confidence in the dollar  He acknowledged that this meant getting the US budget deficit under control.  These words […]

Ed Yardeni on Policy

Author: David Kotok, Post Date: October 8, 2009

Note to readers:  Ed Yardeni opened his daily missive today with the text below.  We requested permission to reproduce it here and thank Ed for giving us the same.   Ed has written it better than my draft so I scrapped mine and am pleased to be able to share his words with our readers.   Full […]

The Fed Exit and the Role of BLOBS – Part 2

Author: David Kotok and Bob Eisenbeis, Post Date: October 4, 2009

This commentary is jointly written by Bob Eisenbeis and David Kotok; their bios may be found at Note to Readers:  This is the second of our two-part commentary on the Fed’s exit strategy and the role the Fed has played in complicating its own operating strategies and ability to conduct monetary policy.  The Fed […]

The Fed Exit and the Role of BLOBS – Part 1

Author: David Kotok and Bob Eisenbeis, Post Date: October 2, 2009

This commentary is jointly written by Bob Eisenbeis and David Kotok; their bios may be found at Note to Readers: This is the first of a two-part commentary motivated by speeches and editorials from Federal Reserve officials about possible exit strategies from its current quantitative easing policies. We comment on some problems that the […]

The Pittsburgh G-20 – Does It Matter?

Author: Bill Witherell, Post Date: September 29, 2009

The second G-20 Summit meeting was held in Pittsburgh last week. There were no market-moving surprises in the outcome. The decisions taken were largely signaled by the preparatory meeting of finance ministers and central bank governors on September 4 and 5 in London.  While the press accounts suggest the results were modest, perhaps because of […]

Iran, Nukes, War & Markets

Author: David Kotok, Post Date: September 26, 2009

Iran.   Remember the old story about the kid and cookie jar?  “If you do that one more time, I will punish you,” says the mom.  This latest two-months so-called “line in the sand” is not the first, nor the second, nor the third time.  The only thing different now is that the Brits (Brown), the […]

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