Market Commentary

image_pdfimage_print

Cumberland’s 2008 Emerging Markets Strategy

Author: Bill Witherell, Post Date: December 31, 2007

2007 was the fifth consecutive year that emerging market stocks registered a double–digit advance. They significantly outperformed US and other advanced markets. The benchmark we use is the broad MSCI (Morgan Stanley Capital International) Emerging Markets Index; it increased by 39.4% in 2007. Like last year, the same basic question applies: “Will the Boom Continue?” […]

Fannie and Freddie in dysfunctional credit markets

Author: David Kotok, Post Date: December 6, 2007

We expected the foreclosure, subprime mess to become the central focal point of US politics; it has now done so. The reason is simple. A single foreclosure on a street impacts the entire population of the street not just the household that lost their home. All nearby property values are hurt. Foreclosures are an indicator […]

Northern Rock has a branch in Tallahassee

Author: David Kotok, Post Date: December 1, 2007

Runs on financial institutions are not always seen as lines forming in front of banks. The State of Florida has suspended withdrawals from a state operated pooled investment fund. The fund was designed to benefit Florida’s counties, cities and school districts by pooling and investing their short term funds for them. The suspension occurred just […]

Thanksgiving in Hanoi

Author: Bill Witherell, Post Date: November 26, 2007

It is the evening of Thanksgiving Day and I am looking at the wide variety of Vietnamese dishes on offer at a charming restaurant located in the courtyard of a former Buddhist monastery in Hanoi. No turkey or apple pie tonight. I pass up the charcoal-grilled squid and opt for large barbecued shrimp, which are […]

Four Commentaries from Trip to China

Author: David Kotok, Post Date: November 20, 2007

Report From Beijing November 6, 2007 It’s early Tuesday morning here and 13 hours ahead of east coast time. The blackberry connection is perfect so we are current on email, telephone messages and have digested the news from Citi and Google. We’ve absorbed Federal Reserve Governor Mishkin’s speech. The contrasts in Beijing are remarkable. We […]

A Strategy Change at Cumberland

Author: David Kotok, Post Date: June 6, 2007

Before we leave for Dublin in a few hours we want to report making some major strategy changes. These were done during the last two weeks. Cumberland clients will see them in their reports. Here are the bullets: We have instituted a cash reserve in the US managed accounts. The target is 10% with a […]

The “Bubble” in Shanghai!

Author: David Kotok, Post Date: June 4, 2007

The world is watching a stock market bubble in Shanghai. Here are some bubble bullets; then, we’ll comment on the risk with Chinese “A” shares. When stock markets are rising quickly and the curve turns parabolic, emotion takes over and valuation no longer drives pricing. Using valuation techniques is irrelevant in decision making during bubbles. […]

France is Still France

Author: Bill Witherell, Post Date: May 11, 2007

On May 6th Nicolas Sarkozy was elected by a wide margin to be President of France, decisively trouncing the Socialist candidate, Segolene Royal.  On May 16th.Sarkozy takes over from Jacques Chirac, who has been President for the past 12 years.  The 84% turnout reflected French voter’s strong desire for change.  They seek economic reforms.  Their […]

Seasonality

Author: David Kotok, Post Date: April 24, 2007

“Sell in May and go away” says the old Wall St. adage.  “Should you obey?” asks Paul Lim in his New York Times column (Pg. 5, Sunday Money Section, April 22, 2007). Paul Lim noted how the S & P 500 averaged a meager 1.6% for all the May-October periods since 1945.  And he also […]

The Elephant and the Dragon – A Tale of Two Markets

Author: Bill Witherell, Post Date: February 23, 2007

The Indian and Chinese economies have both been growing at exceptional rates in the range of 9-11 percent per annum. Their equity markets have registered huge gains. India’s SENSEX index for the Bombay market rose 48.5% last year and the iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 (FXI).for major Chinese companies listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange […]

cumber map

Cumberland Advisors® is registered with the SEC under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940. All information contained herein is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a solicitation or offer to sell securities or investment advisory services. Such an offer can only be made in the states where Cumberland Advisors is either registered or is a Notice Filer or where an exemption from such registration or filing is available. New accounts will not be accepted unless and until all local regulations have been satisfied. This presentation does not purport to be a complete description of our performance or investment services.

Please feel free to forward our commentaries (with proper attribution) to others who may be interested.

For a list of all equity recommendations for the past year, please contact Timothy J. Lyle at 800-257-7013, ext. 350. It is not our intention to state or imply in any manner that past results and profitability is an indication of future performance. All material presented is compiled from sources believed to be reliable. However, accuracy cannot be guaranteed.

Loading...