Market Commentary

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Report From Paris

Author: David Kotok, Post Date: January 8, 2009

Paris was cold.  Reading reports of a deep freeze in Europe is one thing.  Walking on the Rue de Rivoli with hat, scarf, gloves, and three layers and having to avoid ice is something else.  Even the highest-end jewelry sellers’ plaza in the world, the Place Vendome, could not keep its sidewalks clean and safe […]

Looking Ahead by Looking Back

Author: Bob Eisenbeis, Post Date: January 6, 2009

The previous commentary “Looking Ahead” focused on the risks to the outlook for 2009. However, we are now officially in a recession, with some trumpeting it as the worst economy since the Great Depression, and policy makers have responded with extraordinary measures. Therefore, it seems appropriate to take a hard look at exactly where we […]

GM Subsidies

Author: Bob Eisenbeis, Post Date: January 5, 2009

The Wall Street Journal editorial on Jan. 2, 2009 commented on the looming consequences of the injection of government money into the tottering auto giant GM.  GM announced that it would employ part of the TARP money it received to provide 0.0% financing in order to spur sales of its sport utility vehicles (the ones […]

US Stock Markets and 2009

Author: David Kotok, Post Date: January 2, 2009

There are signs that the 2008 year-end stock market rally may continue into 2009.  Internal market dynamics have changed since the November 20 low.  In order to grasp these new dynamics it is important to study three key dates and the transitions in between them. The first date is October 10, when the US stock […]

Looking Ahead to 2009

Author: Bob Eisenbeis, Post Date: December 27, 2008

Economic forecasting is at best an imperfect art, whether using econometric models, informed judgment, or a combination of both.  There are almost as many different forecasts out there as there are economists.  Witness the wide dispersion of views in any of the collection of surveys conducted by the National Association of Business Economics, the Wall […]

Pondering Madoff as we enter 2009

Author: David Kotok, Post Date: December 23, 2008

"This is a major disaster for a lot of people.  You work all your life, you finally manage to save up something, and somebody who’s entrusted with it, it turns out suddenly he’s a crook. Lots of people are getting fully or partially wiped out."  Lawrence Velvel, 69, Dean of the Massachusetts School of Law […]

Give the Gift of Education

Author: Carol Mulcahy, Post Date: December 22, 2008

Carol Mulcahy is a Client Relationship Manager at Cumberland and a Chartered Retirement Plans Specialist SM designee. She was recently approved to be an arbitrator with FINRA.  She has over 23 years experience in the banking and investment industry both in retail and institutional sales and marketing.  Her bio can be found on Cumberland’s home […]

At First Blush

Author: Bob Eisenbeis, Post Date: December 17, 2008

Markets responded overwhelmingly positively to the Fed’s policy announcement yesterday.  At first blush, the Fed appeared to pull out all the big guns.  The Wall Street Journal characterized the move as Bernanke having gone all in, to draw upon a poker analogy.  The FOMC cut its policy target rate to a new low and also […]

Today’s New York Times Editorial

Author: David Kotok, Post Date: December 15, 2008

As many of our readers know, my colleagues and I have written and spoken about the Lehman failure and the lack of forensics on the Fed’s Bear Stearns decision and the Fed’s Lehman non-decision.  We have articulated the risks to policy transparency that originate with  the US Senate Banking Committee under Senator Christopher Dodd’s chairmanship; […]

2009 Outlook – Markets Measure; They Don’t Forecast

Author: David Kotok, Post Date: December 14, 2008

We are starting this commentary with two quotes that superbly summarize the state of the wealth effect, economy, and the outlook for applied stimulus. Cumberland’s strategy and rationale follow the quotes. We specifically acknowledge the effort of Howard Simons of Bianco Research for his repeated seminal work on how markets measure well and forecast much […]

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