Market Commentary


Why Secretary Geithner’s China Comments Matter

Author: Bob Eisenbeis, Post Date: January 27, 2009

Treasury Secretary Geithner’s comments at his confirmation hearing and subsequent responses to written questions from Senators have provoked surprise and consternation here, in China, and around the world.  His comments went far beyond his own personal views when he stated that the Obama administration believes that the Chinese government has engaged in currency manipulation.  Why […]

Consultation versus Confrontation with China

Author: Bill Witherell, Post Date: January 26, 2009

The first move by the Obama economic team in the delicate area of international economic and financial relations is a serious misstep, in our view.  The counterparts in China to Treasury Secretary designee Tim Geithner and the head of the National Economic Council, Larry Summers, were confronted at the end of last week with the […]

Geithner, Obama and China

Author: David Kotok, Post Date: January 24, 2009

Following Treasury Secretary designee Tim Geithner’s public confirmation hearing, an extensive Q & A occurred in writing. We have posted a copy of the US Senate Finance Committee’s 100-page text on our website. See: (Link is no longer available). This is a must read for any serious investor, economist, strategist, analyst, or observer. In this […]

Bianco: The Dow Is Distorted

Author: James Bianco, Post Date: January 21, 2009

Comment – The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is a price weighted index. The divisor for the DJIA is 7.964782. That means that every $1 a DJIA stock loses, the index loses 7.96 points, regardless of the company’s market capitalization. Dow Jones, the keeper of the DJIA, has an unwritten rule that any DJIA stock […]

Geithner and the NY Fed Code of Conduct

Author: David Kotok, Post Date: January 18, 2009

We will start with two quotes. “It is indispensable to the proper functioning of, and the maintenance of public confidence in, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York ("Bank") and the Federal Reserve System ("System") that every employee perform his or her duties with honesty, integrity and impartiality, and without improper preferential treatment of any […]

Geithner, Obama, Audacity (defined?)

Author: David Kotok, Post Date: January 15, 2009

“Oh, what a tangled web we weave when first we practice to deceive.” Sir Walter Scott More revelations about Geithner.  The US Senate postpones his hearing.  President-elect Obama still defends him.  The stock market sinks.  Are these things connected? Certainly the first three items are interrelated.  Things for Geithner are getting much worse now that […]

Pick of the BRICs in 2009

Author: Bill Witherell, Post Date: January 9, 2009

As investors position their equity portfolios for 2009, attention is turning again to the so-called four BRIC economies (Brazil, Russia, India, and China).  These four markets, the largest of the emerging markets, were strong out-performers in the heady investment environment of 2005-2007 and dropped sharply in the following global market decline.  The MSCI BRIC Index, […]

Report From Paris

Author: David Kotok, Post Date: January 8, 2009

Paris was cold.  Reading reports of a deep freeze in Europe is one thing.  Walking on the Rue de Rivoli with hat, scarf, gloves, and three layers and having to avoid ice is something else.  Even the highest-end jewelry sellers’ plaza in the world, the Place Vendome, could not keep its sidewalks clean and safe […]

Looking Ahead by Looking Back

Author: Bob Eisenbeis, Post Date: January 6, 2009

The previous commentary “Looking Ahead” focused on the risks to the outlook for 2009. However, we are now officially in a recession, with some trumpeting it as the worst economy since the Great Depression, and policy makers have responded with extraordinary measures. Therefore, it seems appropriate to take a hard look at exactly where we […]

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