Market Commentary


Dammit! This is NOT the Great Depression

Author: David Kotok, Post Date: October 26, 2008

Bear markets fall into three categories: (A) the most common is the cyclical bear; they average about 20% to 25% down from peak to trough.  (B) Occasionally we experience a secular bear; they typically decline about 45% to 50% from peak to trough.  (C) Lastly and most rare is the devastating bear; these declines are […]

The Muni Hedge

Author: David Kotok, Post Date: October 24, 2008

The rapid deterioration of the municipal bond market in the past month has its roots in the sell-off of all markets in the aftermath of the Lehman Brothers collapse.  From an already cheap level versus US Treasuries, the Bond Buyer 40 (a long-maturity index of investment-grade tax-free bonds) soared to yields much higher than 6%, […]

Investing in a Global Bear Market

Author: David Kotok, Post Date: October 22, 2008

By the end of the third quarter of 2008, equity markets around the globe had registered declines well in excess of 20%, the magnitude commonly considered to indicate a “bear market.” The convergence in market performance is striking. Over the first three quarters of this year, global markets as measured by the MSCI World Index […]

An Offer They Couldn’t Refuse

Author: Bob Eisenbeis, Post Date: October 20, 2008

As the first step in promoting the government’s new voluntary bank capital injection plan, Secretary Paulson summoned the CEOs of the nation’s largest banks to Washington and “made them an offer they couldn’t refuse.”  He told them that as part of the government’s “voluntary” capital program, he was going to “invest” $125 billion of the […]

Shhh! Don’t tell anybody about the 4.2 basis points

Author: Michael Comes, Post Date: October 17, 2008

On July 30, 2008, the President signed into law the Housing and Economic Recovery Act of 2008 (“The Act”). The Act is segmented into three smaller acts, two of which have been highly publicized by the press; these are the Federal Housing Finance Regulatory Reform Act of 2008 and the Foreclosure Prevention Act of 2008. […]

Guardians of Global Financial Stability

Author: Bill Witherell, Post Date: October 15, 2008

Last weekend, as global markets experienced the worst financial crisis since the Depression and economies veer into a recession of unknown depth and duration, Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors gathered in Washington, D.C., for the Annual Meetings of the IMF and World Bank, and the related, and on this occasion, more critical meetings of […]

The Next New Paulson Plan

Author: Bob Eisenbeis, Post Date: October 13, 2008

When George Allen was recruited by Washington Redskins owner Edward Bennett Williams to come to DC and rebuild the team, Williams said, “George was given an unlimited budget and he quickly exceeded it.”  It now appears that Hank Paulson has done the same.  Instead of using the money in the multi-billion bailout bill to buy […]

Throwing in the Towel

Author: David Kotok, Post Date: October 8, 2008

Actions speak louder than words. Yesterday I sat at the Washington luncheon speech of Ben Bernanke.  We watched the stock market meltdown start about three quarters of the way through his speech.  The rest of yesterday you know.  Last night, the meltdown continued worldwide. This morning we saw coordinated central bank actions aimed at massive […]

Doom and Gloom?

Author: Bob Eisenbeis, Post Date: October 6, 2008

First we are told that financial chaos will break out if the House of Representatives didn’t pass the ill-conceived bailout bill that Secretary Paulson and Congressional leaders put together. When the bill didn’t pass, surprising everyone, the market fell over 700 points; but it rallied the following day, gaining back about 400 of the lost […]

cumber map
Cumberland Advisors® is registered with the SEC under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940. All information contained herein is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a solicitation or offer to sell securities or investment advisory services. Such an offer can only be made in the states where Cumberland Advisors is either registered or is a Notice Filer or where an exemption from such registration or filing is available. New accounts will not be accepted unless and until all local regulations have been satisfied. This presentation does not purport to be a complete description of our performance or investment services. Please feel free to forward our commentaries (with proper attribution) to others who may be interested. It is not our intention to state or imply in any manner that past results and profitability is an indication of future performance. All material presented is compiled from sources believed to be reliable. However, accuracy cannot be guaranteed.