Market Commentary

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Quarterly Review: US ETF

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: June 19, 2018
Cumberland Advisors - Quarterly Review - 2018 Q1 - US ETF

US stocks were buffeted by crosscurrents in the first half of 2018. There were Trump Tweetstorms, geopolitics in China and Korea, G-7 trading-partner fights with Canada, our largest and most durable trading partner. Add to that a blistering attack on the press (what happened to the First Amendment?) and a White House withdrawal from communication […]

John Mousseau, CFA® Becomes President of Cumberland Advisors as Firm Celebrates 45th Anniversary

Author: Sharon Prizant, Post Date: June 15, 2018
Cumberland Advisors - 45th Anniversary

It is with pride that Cumberland Advisors celebrates its 45th Anniversary. June 18th marks 45 years since Cumberland Advisors officially opened its Vineland, NJ, office. Eight years after moving our principal office from Vineland to Sarasota, FL, we have 45 employees, and as of April 30th, 2018, more than three billion dollars of client investment […]

Thucydides–Part 4

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: June 13, 2018

In the modern geopolitical world, money and payments are integrated in war (and trade wars) and politics. We see that intrigue in the daily news flow. Some 2400 years after the Peloponnesian War, we can still glean from antiquity lessons to guide us. The Thucydides Trap includes money as a tool of war or as […]

Man Bites Dog by Bob Brusca

Author: David R. Kotok & Bob Brusca, Chief Economist of FAO Economics, Post Date: June 12, 2018
Market-Commentary-Cumberland-Advisors-Trade

With all the Trumpian hullabaloo over trade, I want to share with readers a balanced, well-reasoned analysis of US trade issues penned by my good friend Bob Brusca, Chief Economist of FAO Economics. Bob makes it clear that while there are pros and cons to the US’s longtime propensity to run trade deficits, there is […]

Causality

Author: Leo Chen, Ph.D., Post Date: June 11, 2018
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary - Leo Chen, Ph.D.

On day 1 our econometrics professor warned us to be careful with correlation: A strong correlation doesn’t necessarily mean causality. This is the case with the VIX. It’s closely related to the S&P 500 with a negative correlation, but the relationship may not be causal. I will never forget the example our professor gave us: […]

France Notebook

Author: Bill Witherell, Ph.D., Post Date: June 8, 2018

We are back in Southern France, in the town of Bonnieux, perched on a hilltop in the Luberon region of Provence, far from the hustle of Paris. The country has recently endured a record number of thunderstorms, which have caused some serious flooding, and continues to experience a series of rail and airline strikes. However, […]

Predictions: a follow up

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: June 6, 2018

In our recent commentary “Predictions,” we quoted Daniel Kahneman and the story of the cost overruns and prolonged construction period associated with the Scottish Parliament Building. The project’s troubles didn’t end when the ribbon was cut. Brian Barnier, who is a voracious reader, sent me the article linked below, detailing the urgent repairs necessitated by […]

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