Market Commentary

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Predictions

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: June 4, 2018

“It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” Yogi Berra made this quote famous, though its origins are disputed. On May 31, we published a note entitled “Jobs for Everyone”(see http://www.cumber.com/jobs-for-everyone/). Many readers replied, and the views were diverse, as you might expect. We thank all those who sent a comment. Eddie Dawes wrote […]

Jobs for Everyone?

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: May 31, 2018

In the May 10th edition of the Economist, an article entitled “Make work can’t work” (p. 25 in the print edition) considered the Democratic proposal for a jobs guarantee in United States. It opened as follows: “In April, America’s unemployment rate fell to 3.9%, its lowest since December 2000. That is not good enough for […]

FOMC Minutes – May 2018

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: May 25, 2018
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary by Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D.

The FOMC minutes are designed to provide a concise summary of the presentations and discussions that take place at FOMC meetings and the context behind the terse press release provided at the end of each meeting. Presumably, this communication device is meant to provide added color and a sense of where policy may be going. […]

Kim, Trump, Thucydides

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: May 24, 2018
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary by David Kotok

Trump’s cancellation of the Kim summit meeting clearly draws lines in the sand. Trump’s position cannot now be reversed for a longer period of time than was contemplated just hours ago. We now have an unpredictable escalation path. Kim’s behavior in destroying tunnels, underground mountain rail lines, and other parts of his nuclear test site […]

Brian Barnier Guest Commentary – A Concise, Practical Seminar on Root-Cause Analysis

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: May 23, 2018
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary by David Kotok

My friend and fishing buddy Brian Barnier is Director and Head of Analytics for ValueBridge Advisors (US) and Burnt Oak Capital (UK). He focuses on growing companies and investments through an emphasis on the application of technology to process improvement and the understanding of product, market, and economic trends. He has an analytical edge in […]

Thucydides–Part 3

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: May 15, 2018

In book five of The History of the Peloponnesian War, Thucydides describes how the Athenians sustained surprisingly large losses in battle and how the Spartans prevailed. He also describes what each side didn’t know about the condition of the other side. Problems arise when decisions are based on incomplete information. Athens didn’t know of the […]

Illinois Unpaid Bill Backlog

Author: Patricia Healy, CFA, Post Date: May 14, 2018
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary by Patricia Healy, CFA

We do not invest in direct general-obligation bonds of the State of Illinois. At Cumberland we feel the state is plagued by political gridlock, an inflexible state constitution, a severely underfunded pension plan, and slow growth. In order for the state to avoid dealing with its issues when it had a cash shortage, in 2011 […]

Japan’s Domestic Political Turmoil versus Stocks

Author: Bill Witherell, Ph.D., Post Date: May 11, 2018
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary - Bill Witherell, Ph.D.

In this note we take a closer look at Japan, where the equity market has also so far weathered some very dramatic domestic political storms. The Japanese economy is participating in the global economic recovery that is projected to continue at least through this and next year, and in the accompanying strong growth in global trade, which should persist unless a serious trade war develops.

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Cumberland Advisors® is registered with the SEC under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940. All information contained herein is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a solicitation or offer to sell securities or investment advisory services. Such an offer can only be made in the states where Cumberland Advisors is either registered or is a Notice Filer or where an exemption from such registration or filing is available. New accounts will not be accepted unless and until all local regulations have been satisfied. This presentation does not purport to be a complete description of our performance or investment services. Please feel free to forward our commentaries (with proper attribution) to others who may be interested. It is not our intention to state or imply in any manner that past results and profitability is an indication of future performance. All material presented is compiled from sources believed to be reliable. However, accuracy cannot be guaranteed.
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