Market Commentary


Climate Change & Markets

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: October 23, 2018
Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Climate Change & Markets

Why did Hurricane Michael intensify so quickly? And why was the Western US so hot and dry this summer? And what about climate change all across the rest of the global landscape and seascape? And what do I do with my portfolio? There are still many climate change deniers. But that cohort shrinks as more […]

Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (Oct 15, 2018 – Oct 19, 2018)

Author: Cumberland Advisors, Post Date: October 21, 2018
Cumberland Advisors Week in Review

The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team. They are not revised assessments and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries our editors have determined of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome. […]

Markets & Cognitive Epistemology

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: October 19, 2018
Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Markets & Cognitive Epistemology

We want to open a discussion about cognitive epistemology, invoking behavioral economics and translating our conclusions into a market strategy at the end. Epistemology is the study of how we know what we know – or really, what we think we know. Here is a precise definition: “the theory of knowledge, especially with regard to […]

Federal Reserve Independence – Under Attack Again?

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: October 18, 2018
Federal Reserve - Independence

The last few days, President Trump has made inflammatory and in some instances misguided remarks as to the nature of current Fed policy, its impact on the stock market and potentially on the economy. Examples follow: “It is a correction (the decline in the stock market) that I feel is caused by the Federal Reserve.” […]

Hurricane Michael and Bond Portfolio Management

Author: Patricia Healy, CFA, Post Date: October 17, 2018
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary

The devastation from Michael in terms of lives and property damage is still being assessed. Our hearts go out to those affected. We have written ( about the general uptick in economic activity in a municipality after a storm or other natural disaster and the resulting maintenance of credit ratings. However, there could be a period […]

Doc Holliday, Jay Powell, Donald Trump & The Piano

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: October 12, 2018
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary by David Kotok

“Ready, Fire, Aim”? In Understanding and Managing Public Organizations, Hal Rainey makes the point that “the intangible issues of culture, values, human relations – matters that many managers regard as fuzzy and unmanageable – can and must be skillfully managed.” The contrary approach, which is favored by many companies and government agencies, can be summarized […]

VIX Inversion

Author: Leo Chen, Ph.D., Post Date: October 9, 2018
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary - Leo Chen, Ph.D.

VIX, the “fear gauge,” measures S&P 500 near-term volatility by using options that expire in 23–37 days. Therefore, the VIX we often discuss is the 1-month volatility index. However, the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) also publishes 3-month (VIX3M) and 6-month (VIX6M) volatility indexes, which are less well known. The 3-month and 6-month VIX indexes […]

Another Italian Drama – Why It Matters

Author: William Witherell, Ph.D., Post Date: October 3, 2018
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary - Bill Witherell, Ph.D.

Government deficit out of control, irresponsible government policies, tumbling bond prices and bank share prices, threat of rating-agency downgrades, political instability – we have seen similar Italian dramas in the past that, in the end, did not lead to serious financial market contagion. Nevertheless, there are reasons to be concerned that this time the impact […]

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