Market Commentary


Children First

Author: Gabriel Hament, Post Date: June 28, 2019

Since the ’08-’09 financial crisis, it has been astounding to watch as investment pours into Florida’s Sarasota-Manatee region. Construction cranes dot the skyline, new housing developments expand beyond the interstate while regional unemployment remains at historic lows. But the increase in economic activity on the Gulf Coast has not necessarily translated into larger paychecks or […]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – 2Q2019 Review: Puerto Rico

Author: Shaun Burgess, Post Date:
Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Puerto Rico - Shaun Burgess

The second quarter of 2019 has been a busy one for the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico. Milestones mired in controversy, optimism dampened by frustration, and increasing uncertainty have all been part of the experience. In what may be one of the most significant milestones to date, an agreement was unveiled between the Federal Oversight and […]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – 2Q2019 Review: Total Return Taxfree Municipal Bond: The Big Squeeze

Author: John R. Mousseau, CFA, Post Date: June 27, 2019
Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - The Big Squeeze (Municipal Bonds)

The muni bond market has been on a tear so far this year. Not only have yields dropped, but they have dropped relative to US Treasuries across the board. The chart below shows where we are now and where we were at the start of the year. The big squeeze has been caused by the […]

Cumberland Advisors Guest Commentary – Gold & NIRP

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: June 26, 2019
Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Gold

Peter Boockvar, a Camp K fisherman and a super-sharp analyst, sent the note and chart below. We thank him for giving us permission to share his note below. It is logical that gold would outperform $14 trillion of negative-interest-rate sovereign debt issued by creditworthy governments like Germany and Switzerland. Remember: Gold counts as a monetary […]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – 2Q2019 Review: Total Return Taxable Fixed Income

Author: Daniel Himelberger, Post Date: June 25, 2019
Cumberland Advisors - Dan Himelberger - Portfolio Manager & Fixed Income Analyst

Treasury yields dropped precipitously throughout the second quarter of 2019, with the biggest decline seen in the short to intermediate maturities. As of 6/20/19 the most sizable decline was in the 2-year Treasury, which dropped 54 bps to 1.724%, while the 30-year Treasury lagged this drop in yield but still declined 28.2 bps to 2.533%. […]

The June FOMC

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: June 24, 2019
Federal Reserve - FOMC

In the commentary leading up to the June meeting, I argued that some relaxation of the tariff issues with Mexico, combined with relatively good data for the US economy, would make the FOMC’s decision to hold pat on rates relatively easier. While the FOMC did decide at its June meeting to hold rates constant for […]

Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (Jun 17, 2019 – Jun 21, 2019)

Author: Cumberland Advisors, Post Date: June 22, 2019
Week In Review

The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team. These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback  […]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – 2Q 2019 Review: International Equity ETF

Author: William Witherell, Ph.D., Post Date: June 20, 2019
Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Review: International Equity ETF

In the next-to-last week of the second quarter, the factors that have led to high volatility in the global equity markets during the quarter are still present. Foremost among these are the destabilizing effects of rising trade and technology tensions, which are hurting the manufacturing sectors in many countries, disrupting global value chains, and weighing […]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Market Volatility ETF Portfolio 2Q 2019 Review: Rising VIX

Author: Leo Chen, Ph.D., Post Date: June 19, 2019
Cumberland Advisors - Quarterly Review - Market Volatility ETF

The US stock market experienced some rising volatility caused by the tariff war during the second quarter of 2019. While the S&P 500 didn’t drop by double digits in May, the volatility index, VIX, briefly touched above 20 last month. As a general rule of thumb, investors can expect a 10% correction in the stock […]

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