Market Commentary

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Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Britain’s Constitutional Crisis

Author: William Witherell, Ph.D., Post Date: September 4, 2019
BREXIT

“A constitutional outrage” exclaimed the traditionally neutral House of Commons Speaker, John Bercow. “An affront to democracy … an intolerable attempt to silence Parliament,” declared the editorial in the August 29th Financial Times. These were reactions to Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s request to the queen to shut down the UK Parliament for five weeks, via […]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Brazil & Amazon Fires

Author: , Post Date: September 3, 2019

Brazil is poisoning the planet and now posing a growing existential risk. The country’s elected leader, Jair Bolsonaro, has suspended or rescinded environmental protection rules and favored his cronies in the agricultural and logging industries, who are exploiting the country’s resources with government approval or malign neglect. “This is your government,” Bolsonaro has promised lawmakers […]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Camp Kotok, Barry Ritholtz, and the “Shadow Fed”

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: August 29, 2019

“Camp Kotok,” is a gathering of prominent economists, wealth managers, traders, heads of research, pundits, financial luminaries and a few journalists that meet each year in a remote part of Maine. Held for a long weekend in the summer, we fish and engage in vigorous debates running the gamut from market valuations and the rise of exchange-traded funds to Federal […]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Interest Rates, Inflation & Markets

Author: , Post Date: August 28, 2019
David R. Kotok

“Americans will always do the right thing — after exhausting all the alternatives.” Winston Churchill? Abba Eban? An Irishman? Apocryphal? For a history of the quote, see: https://quoteinvestigator.com/2012/11/11/exhaust-alternatives/ . When it comes to interest rates, inflation, and financial markets, that hopeful outcome is being sorely tested. We’ll look at some current evidence of US economic trouble […]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – MMT and Camp Kotok

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: August 26, 2019

As David Kotok noted in his description of the intellectual discussions that occurred at Camp Kotok in Grand Lake Stream, Maine, one of the topics was so-called Modern Monetary Theory, or MMT.[1] There were four panelists, who were asked to take different sides for the sake of argument, representing positions from the most favorable to […]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Does Trump-Navarro Equal Smoot-Hawley?

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: August 23, 2019
Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Global Trade

George Santayana said “Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” In an article titled “The Smoot-Hawley Tariff and the Great Depression,” authors Theodore Phalan, Deema Yazigi, and Thomas Rustici assess the role the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act played in the Great Depression: “In 1930, a large majority of economists believed the Smoot-Hawley […]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – The Payments Modernization Act

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: August 22, 2019
Cumberland Advisors' Robert "Bob" Eisenbeis, Ph.D.

Legislation has recently been introduced to require the Federal Reserve to develop a real-time payments system to compete with existing systems. Interestingly, a short time after the introduction of the legislation, the Federal Reserve announced its intention to proceed with plans to develop just such a system. In describing the intent behind the legislation, co-sponsor […]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Katie Darden and Camp Kotok

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: August 21, 2019
Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Report from Leen’s Lodge (Camp Kotok)

Katie Darden, Financial Institutions Research Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, joined us at Camp Kotok and then published this excellent summary of our discussions: “At Camp Kotok, fears over China and ‘magic money tree’ overshadow Fed policy,” https://platform.mi.spglobal.com/web/client?auth=inherit#news/article?id=53593818&cdid=A-53593818-12580 . Then Katie joined her bank analyst colleague Nathan Stovall, who authors StreetTalk, a monthly column […]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – The Bond Conundrum and How to Manage

Author: John R. Mousseau, CFA, Post Date: August 20, 2019
Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Bond Conundrum

The past couple of weeks have been breathtaking for bond investors and observers of the bond market. The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond is now at a record low – it dipped under 2% this week – and the 10-year Treasury is not far off its record low of 1.36% set in July 2016 […]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Cry for Argentina

Author: William Witherell, Ph.D., Post Date: August 19, 2019

Argentina’s primary election on Sunday, August 11, surprised everyone and shocked markets as the current president, Mauricio Macri, was defeated by 15.6 percentage points by the left-wing Peronist candidate, Alberto Fernandez. Macri now appears to have only a very slim chance to win the October 27 presidential election. His tough austerity measures, which were needed […]

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