Market Commentary

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The VIX and the S&P 500-An Equity Market Duet

Author: Leo Chen, Ph.D., Post Date: April 13, 2018
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary - Leo Chen, Ph.D.

Most market participants have accepted that 2018 is unlikely to be another low-volatility year like 2017, but how do we translate the rising volatility into our market forecast? Some Wall Street bulls such as RBC’s Lori Calvasina have revised their year-end forecasts down recently.* Are those revisions because of the higher VIX? First, given that […]

Lunch in Punta Gorda

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: April 12, 2018
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary

OMG! What a wonderful lunch. Nine people total in a private room at a restaurant in Punta Gorda. Martin Barnes organized it, and Danny Blanchflower seeded the idea. Joining were Tim Dalton, Ned Davis, Bob Eisenbeis, Jeff Saut, and a certain ancient one who must remain anonymous but who calls himself “economist 63,” and another […]

Trump, Trade, T, T, T

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: April 11, 2018
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary by David Kotok

“China’s reaction to Mr. Trump’s legitimate defence of the American homeland has been a Great Wall of denial – despite incontrovertible evidence of Beijing’s illicit and protectionist behaviour. Instead, China is attacking American farmers with the threat of retaliatory tariffs in the apparent hope of rattling a key component of the coalition that put Mr. […]

Trump, Trade, Will Rogers

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: April 9, 2018
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary by David Kotok

“It was a tumultuous first week of the quarter that has left the markets caught between more truculent tweets on trade from President Trump, and slightly more diplomatic messages from his advisors. Predictably China countered with $50 bln in tariffs of their own against a variety of U.S. imports, while the White House threatened to […]

More on Trade Wars

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: April 4, 2018
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary by David Kotok

Well, well! Who’d a thunk it? First we must thank David Blond and Bob Brusca for engaging in a debate for our readers. For those who missed it, the links to the David Blond essay and the Bob Brusca response are here: Blond: “Winners and Losers from Global Trade” – http://www.cumber.com/winners-and-losers-from-global-trade/ Brusca: “Why David Blond […]

Tactical Trend, Q1 2018

Author: Matthew C. McAleer, Post Date:
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary by Matthew McAleer

Well, that didn’t take long! The secondary indicators (sentiment) we mentioned as a concern in our 2017 year-end commentary (see Tactical Trend, Q4 2017) proved to be a bit too much for the equity markets to digest during Q1. The extreme bullish readings in late December and early January were a warning that capital had already been […]

More on Muni Credit

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: April 3, 2018
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary by David Kotok

My colleague Patty Healy discussed the muni sector’s credit scoring and status in her recent quarterly commentary. See http://www.cumber.com/q1-2018-municipal-credit/. Readers who missed her missive may want to take a look at it, as it recites lots of evidence of upgrades and downgrades in municipal credit and why they happened. Patty is an expert on municipal credit. Let […]

Why David Blond is Wrong on Trade

Author: Robert Brusca, Post Date: March 30, 2018

We thank readers for their thoughtful responses to David Blond’s guest paper on trade and tariffs, Winners and Losers from Global Trade. That paper triggered debate. Below is Bob Brusca’s rebuttal. Enjoy the debate as each person can decide her/his own viewpoint. David R. Kotok Chairman and Chief Investment Officer Email | Bio Why David […]

Q1 2018 Municipal Credit

Author: Patricia Healy, CFA, Post Date:
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary by Patricia Healy, CFA

Ratings, Teachers’ Strikes, Pensions, Higher Education During the quarter, Moody’s and S&P reported that upgrades of municipal bonds continued to dominate downgrades in 2017. For S&P it was the sixth year in a row, with California leading the way in the number of upgraded issuers, followed by Florida and Texas. For Moody’s it was the […]

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