Market Commentary


2Q2019 Review: US Equity ETF

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: June 17, 2019
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary

Market volatility in Q2 of 2019 was driven by three distinct elements: (1) trade war and tariffs with China, on and off with Mexico, deferred temporarily with Europe, and festering with others; (2) economic indicators like details in the employment report pointing to a slowdown in growth; and (3) questions about what the Fed will […]


Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: June 13, 2019
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary

Giacomo Puccini set China as the venue for his famous opera Turandot. Opera buffs will know it well. Anyone not familiar with this intriguing romantic opera is certainly invited to experience it. Why do I start a commentary about China and the Trump Trade War by invoking an opera to serve as a metaphor? The […]

What Does “Data-Dependent” Mean?

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: June 12, 2019
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary

Markets and pundits were hyperventilating this past week over the prospect that the FOMC might cut the fed funds rate at its June or perhaps at its July meeting, driven by concerns that the economy might be slowing, as reflected in the disappointing employment report and the prospects for the imposition of import tariffs on […]

2% or 2% or -0.2%?

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: June 10, 2019
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary

The bond market is currently a puzzle derived from an enigma influenced by an anomaly. Or is it?  Here are some bullets. 1. Riskless overnight US government cash equivalents yield more than 2- or 5- or 7- or 10-year maturity instruments of the same credit risk.  That means a market based forecast suggests that the […]

Peter Navarro

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: June 7, 2019
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary

“We’ve told Mexico the tariffs go on, and I mean it too. And I’m very happy with it. And a lot of people, senators included, they have no idea what they’re talking about when it comes to tariffs. They have absolutely no idea. When you have the money, when you have the product, when you […]

More on Tariffs

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: June 6, 2019
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary

Assessing the impact of the series of US tariff changes in 2018 and 2019 is difficult. The tariffs have been revised and updated over time. Indeed, MarketsInsider lists about 27 tariff-related events and announcements between March 2018, when President Trump announced tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from all countries, and May 23, 2019.[1] They […]

Jingoism & Rare Earths

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: June 5, 2019
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary

“The Trump Administration last year recognized the importance of rare earths elements – albeit as an after-thought – when it pulled them off a list of Chinese imports to be hit with US tariffs. China mines about 80% of the 17 elements that appear on the Periodic Table, and has a lock on about 90% […]

EU Election: Negative But Could Have Been Worse

Author: William Witherell, Ph.D., Post Date: June 3, 2019
Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - EUROPE MAP

The results of the European Union’s Parliamentary elections, held the last weekend in May, were welcomed by investors as being not as bad as many had feared. A broad populist and nationalist anti-EU surge, which had looked possible, was avoided. Pro-EU lawmakers will continue to be in a clear majority, aided by gains by green […]

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