Market Commentary

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Bitcoin, Gold & Money

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: October 26, 2017
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary by David Kotok

We start with a quote by Donald Trump, courtesy of CNN, May 16, 2016: “This is the United States government. First of all, you never have to default because you print the money, I hate to tell you, OK?” We juxtapose that quote with Francesco Bianchi and Leonardo Melosi’s excellent research paper published by the […]

U3 or U6: Bob Brusca or Joel Naroff

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: October 24, 2017
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary by David Kotok

We are privileged to invite readers to a serious debate and discussion. Recently we published two pieces in which we tried to describe markets in terms of metaphors. We thank readers for their many thoughtful responses. In the second “metaphor” piece we incorporated three charts prepared by Bob Brusca, an economist and longtime friend. Another […]

A Win for Abe and Japan: Challenges Lie Ahead

Author: Bill Witherell, Ph.D., Post Date: October 23, 2017
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary by Bill Witherell, Ph.D.

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and his Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) achieved a landslide victory in the snap election held Sunday, assuring that his ruling coalition retains its two-thirds majority in Japan’s lower house. It also makes it very likely that Abe will be selected next year to continue to head the LDP. The LDP faced […]

Markets, Metaphors & Labor Data

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: October 18, 2017
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary by David Kotok

We thank readers for their gracious comments on our markets and metaphors missive (http://www.cumber.com/market-history-and-metaphors/), examining historical periods that “rhyme” in one way or another with the circumstances we find ourselves in today. To recap for those who missed it, the historical references we examined were as follows: (1) almost a decade ago the financial meltdown […]

Tulip Fever

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: October 15, 2017
Market-Commentary Tulip-Fever

Three levels are apparent in the wonderfully crafted movie Tulip Fever, in which the impeccably cast Judi Dench is both abbess (mother superior) and tulip-speculating vault keeper. The film is a cinematic lesson about trading momentum and human emotions overtaking investment reasoning. But there is also a lesson in Dutch history, with a marvelous depiction […]

Market History and Metaphors

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: October 13, 2017
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary by David Kotok

“History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes,” Mark Twain supposedly once observed. As the Fed begins to shrink its balance sheet even as it determinedly jacks up interest rates, we would be prudent to consider where history has rhymed before and what we might learn from those instances. 2007–08 This is the tenth anniversary […]

China Riding the Global Economic Recovery

Author: Bill Witherell, Ph.D., Post Date: October 11, 2017
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary - Bill Witherell, Ph.D.

The global economic recovery is strengthening and becoming more synchronized, according to updated projections for 2017 and 2018 by both the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF). China, the world’s second largest economy, is an important part of this improved outlook, and its equity markets have been outperforming. […]

Q3 2017 Municipal Credit

Author: Patricia Healy, CFA, Post Date: October 10, 2017
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary by Patricia Healy, CFA

Whirlwind is an understatement. Harvey, Irma, and Maria were paramount in our minds during the quarter, but there were wildfires and earthquakes and other flooding here and around the world that really made one think about the choices people make about where to live and in many cases the lack of choice. It also made […]

3Q2017 REVIEW: International ETF

Author: Matthew C. McAleer, Post Date: October 9, 2017
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary by Matthew McAleer

Our International ETF strategy analyzes fiscal and interest rate policy and complements that research with trading analytics to determine portfolio risk/reward and valuations. The strategy has the benefit of flexibility in allocation by market cap size and developed vs. emerging markets. Solid demand for foreign equities continued throughout Q3. Both developed and emerging markets advanced, […]

The Jones Act

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: October 8, 2017
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary by David Kotok

A Jones Act replacement law could achieve the national defense purpose in times of emergency but not impose higher costs and procedural delays such as we saw for a week during the Puerto Rico crisis. We should also bear in mind that Puerto Rico has been hurt by the Jones Act for decades.

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Cumberland Advisors® is registered with the SEC under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940. All information contained herein is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a solicitation or offer to sell securities or investment advisory services. Such an offer can only be made in the states where Cumberland Advisors is either registered or is a Notice Filer or where an exemption from such registration or filing is available. New accounts will not be accepted unless and until all local regulations have been satisfied. This presentation does not purport to be a complete description of our performance or investment services.

Please feel free to forward our commentaries (with proper attribution) to others who may be interested.

For a list of all equity recommendations for the past year, please contact Timothy J. Lyle at 800-257-7013, ext. 350. It is not our intention to state or imply in any manner that past results and profitability is an indication of future performance. All material presented is compiled from sources believed to be reliable. However, accuracy cannot be guaranteed.

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