Market Commentary

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Marcus Island

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: April 23, 2018
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary by David Kotok

An isolated Pacific island barely big enough to accommodate an airstrip has gained global importance (see photo: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Marcus_Island_DF-ST-87-08298.JPEG). Some 787 miles east of South Iwo Jima, Marcus Island, or as the Japanese call it, Minami-Tori-shima, meaning “Southern Bird Island,” is the southernmost island under Japanese governance and within the Japanese economic security zone. In its history […]

Global Dialogue & Exchange of Divergent Perspectives: The Rocky Mountain Economic Summit

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: April 19, 2018
David Kotok & Raphael Bostic

Leo Chen, Ph.D., Portfolio Manager & Quantitative Strategist for Cumberland Advisors, will join me to speak on July 12th for an annual gathering of economists, bankers, academics, and finance industry representatives known as the Rocky Mountain Economic Summit. If you missed Dr. Chen’s recent commentary on the VIX and volatility in the market, you can […]

Some Thoughts About The Stock Market

Author: , Post Date: April 16, 2018
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary by David Kotok

We thought we would list a few things for readers to think about when contemplating the US stock market. 1. The first is a brilliant research observation from Morgan Stanley’s Andrew Sheets, who writes from London: “The result can materially boost the income a USD investor receives if they buy overseas assets and remove the […]

The VIX and the S&P 500-An Equity Market Duet

Author: Leo Chen, Ph.D., Post Date: April 13, 2018
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary - Leo Chen, Ph.D.

Most market participants have accepted that 2018 is unlikely to be another low-volatility year like 2017, but how do we translate the rising volatility into our market forecast? Some Wall Street bulls such as RBC’s Lori Calvasina have revised their year-end forecasts down recently.* Are those revisions because of the higher VIX? First, given that […]

Lunch in Punta Gorda

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: April 12, 2018
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary

OMG! What a wonderful lunch. Nine people total in a private room at a restaurant in Punta Gorda. Martin Barnes organized it, and Danny Blanchflower seeded the idea. Joining were Tim Dalton, Ned Davis, Bob Eisenbeis, Jeff Saut, and a certain ancient one who must remain anonymous but who calls himself “economist 63,” and another […]

Trump, Trade, T, T, T

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: April 11, 2018
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary by David Kotok

“China’s reaction to Mr. Trump’s legitimate defence of the American homeland has been a Great Wall of denial – despite incontrovertible evidence of Beijing’s illicit and protectionist behaviour. Instead, China is attacking American farmers with the threat of retaliatory tariffs in the apparent hope of rattling a key component of the coalition that put Mr. […]

Trump, Trade, Will Rogers

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: April 9, 2018
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary by David Kotok

“It was a tumultuous first week of the quarter that has left the markets caught between more truculent tweets on trade from President Trump, and slightly more diplomatic messages from his advisors. Predictably China countered with $50 bln in tariffs of their own against a variety of U.S. imports, while the White House threatened to […]

More on Trade Wars

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: April 4, 2018
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary by David Kotok

Well, well! Who’d a thunk it? First we must thank David Blond and Bob Brusca for engaging in a debate for our readers. For those who missed it, the links to the David Blond essay and the Bob Brusca response are here: Blond: “Winners and Losers from Global Trade” – http://www.cumber.com/winners-and-losers-from-global-trade/ Brusca: “Why David Blond […]

Tactical Trend, Q1 2018

Author: Matthew C. McAleer, Post Date:
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary by Matthew McAleer

Well, that didn’t take long! The secondary indicators (sentiment) we mentioned as a concern in our 2017 year-end commentary (see Tactical Trend, Q4 2017) proved to be a bit too much for the equity markets to digest during Q1. The extreme bullish readings in late December and early January were a warning that capital had already been […]

More on Muni Credit

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: April 3, 2018
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary by David Kotok

My colleague Patty Healy discussed the muni sector’s credit scoring and status in her recent quarterly commentary. See http://www.cumber.com/q1-2018-municipal-credit/. Readers who missed her missive may want to take a look at it, as it recites lots of evidence of upgrades and downgrades in municipal credit and why they happened. Patty is an expert on municipal credit. Let […]

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