Market Commentary


The Global Economy Moderation & International Equity Markets

Author: William Witherell, Ph.D., Post Date: December 18, 2018
Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - The Global Economy Moderation and International Equity Markets

As 2018 draws to a close, economic growth in almost all economies, including that of the US, is moderating but is still expansionary and in most cases remains above long-term trends.   For the year 2018 as a whole, global growth looks likely to be the same as for 2017, 3.7%, with advanced economies advancing […]

Leveraged ETF Tracking Error

Author: Leo Chen, Ph.D., Post Date: December 14, 2018
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary - Leo Chen, Ph.D.

We discussed the goal of leveraged ETFs previously – to provide daily returns that match the desired ratio over the underlying index ( These ETFs rebalance daily to maintain the proportional leverage through derivatives such as futures, forwards, and swaps. We will demonstrate that this daily rebalancing feature dictates the long-term returns of leveraged ETFs, […]

TNB and the Regulatory Dialectic

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: December 13, 2018
Cumberland Advisors' Bob Eisenbeis

Back in the 1980s Professor Edward Kane coined the term regulatory dialectic to capture the dynamics of how regulated financial institutions found innovative ways to circumvent regulations designed to restrict their behavior. For example, banks adopted the one-bank holding company form in the late 1960s to avoid the restrictions on permissible activities. They subsequently used […]

January 25th & Gary Shilling

Author: , Post Date: December 11, 2018
GIC & USFSM - Adapting to a Changing Climate - Challenges & Opportunities

Gary Shilling is an icon of our finance industry. His monthly missive is priceless. Fred Rossi edits and researches. The work product is extraordinary. We thank them for permission to share the December monthly in full. The trigger for our request was their thorough examination of the climate-change debate and the coincident timing, as registration […]

Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (Dec 03, 2018 – Dec 07, 2018)

Author: Cumberland Advisors, Post Date: December 8, 2018

The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team. These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback […]

Trump Trade War Tariffs & Markets

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: December 6, 2018
Trump Trade War Tariffs & Markets

“We’ll not mince words here: The president’s characterization of himself as “Tariff Man” is juvenile and unpresidential. We cannot imagine Mr. Eisenhower, Mr. Kennedy, Mr. Johnson, Mr. Nixon, Mr. Ford, Mr. Carter, Mr. Reagan, Mr. Bush, Mr. Clinton, Mr. Bush or Mr. Obama ever… EVER… making a juvenile statement such as this to any other […]

January 25th and California Fires

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: December 5, 2018
GIC & USFSM - Adapting to a Changing Climate - Challenges & Opportunities

The January 25th GIC-USFSM conference on adaptive climate change, Adapting to a Changing Climate: Challenges & Opportunities, to be held at the University of South Florida Sarasota-Manatee, includes discussion of fires as well as hurricanes. Here is a recent Bloomberg story for reference: “What Wildfires and Hurricanes Mean for the Global Economy” ( 2018 has […]

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