Market Commentary


Clarity Is Key

Author: Shaun Burgess, Post Date: October 4, 2017
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary

On September 20, 2017, Hurricane Maria laid waste to the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico. As we sit in Cumberland’s offices in Sarasota, Florida, we watch a humanitarian crisis unfold. Millions are without power, internet, cellular service, and clean drinking water. The process of rebuilding will be long and arduous. Damage estimates run into the tens […]

3Q2017 REVIEW: Tactical Trend ETF

Author: Matthew C. McAleer, Post Date: October 3, 2017
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary by Matthew McAleer

Recognizing strengths and weaknesses among primary asset classes is the core goal of our Tactical Trend strategy. The strategy seeks to identify relative strength and trend strength in an attempt to allocate capital to the strongest asset classes while underweighting or eliminating exposure to the weaker asset classes. The asset classes analyzed and allocated to […]

Dogma is Dangerous: The Problem with Active vs. Passive Debating

Author: Michael McNiven, Ph.D., Post Date: October 2, 2017
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary by Michael McNiven Ph.D.

Part of the allure of modern portfolio theory and the academic research that has become a staple of investment theory is its theoretical certainty. In very basic terms it states that through proper diversification and a long-term investment horizon – regardless of what the markets do – investors will, on the aggregate, benefit more and […]

Takeaways from NABE

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: October 1, 2017
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary by Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D.

The 59th annual meeting of the National Association of Business Economics took place earlier last week in Cleveland with a stellar lineup of presentations on the state of the US and world economies. Chair Yellen headlined the meeting with a tour de force discussion of why the Fed can’t figure out why inflation fails to […]

Munis in Third Quarter 2017 – All About Storms

Author: John R. Mousseau, CFA, Post Date: September 29, 2017
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary by John Mousseau

The real story of the muni bond market in the third quarter of 2017 was the impact of the three large named storms: Harvey, Irma, and Maria.

Bond market reactions to both Harvey and Irma were fairly small – perhaps a 10-basis-point uptick in yields, and that was mostly for the issues of local coastal jurisdictions as opposed to larger, more established issues.

On September 20th, Maria hit Puerto Rico head-on as a near-Category 5 hurricane. This was by far the worst of the three hurricanes, since it devastated the Commonwealth completely and produced an absolute human catastrophe.

3Q2017 Review: Taxable Total Return

Author: Daniel Himelberger, Post Date: September 28, 2017
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary

The third quarter of 2017 saw a strong equity market, while yields in the fixed-income market experienced continued volatility. The big picture for the Treasury market during the third quarter was that yields were little changed, with the 1-year Treasury yield increasing by 7.6 basis points and the 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields increasing by […]

September’s FOMC Decision

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: September 27, 2017
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary by Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D.

As we at Cumberland Advisors expected, the FOMC left its policy rate unchanged for the moment and announced that it would begin the process of normalization of its balance sheet in October. They have a plan. It has been well-articulated. There were no surprises, and the Committee and Chair Yellen indicated that they did not […]

A Tale of Two Countries

Author: Bill Witherell, Ph.D., Post Date: September 26, 2017
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary by Bill Witherell, Ph.D.

Currently visiting France, a country in which I lived for some 26 years, I am struck by the widespread optimism about the economic and political future of the nation. This upbeat sentiment contrasts sharply with French attitudes in recent decades and with the situation across the Channel in the United Kingdom as that country struggles […]

Market Volatility ETF Portfolio 3Q 2017 Review: A Low-Volatility Market

Author: Leo Chen, Ph.D., Post Date: September 25, 2017
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary - Leo Chen, Ph.D.

As we march through one all-time high after another in the third quarter this year, our quantitative market volatility strategy has benefited significantly from being fully invested. The leveraged portfolio has done particularly well. The volatility index, VIX, which is highly correlated (negatively) with the equity market, made a remarkable all-time intra-day low of 8.84 […]

A Marshall Plan for the Caribbean

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: September 24, 2017
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary by David Kotok

“George Catlett Marshall, Jr. (December 31, 1880 – October 16, 1959) was an American statesman and soldier. He was Chief of Staff of the United States Army under presidents Franklin D. Roosevelt and Harry S. Truman, and served as Secretary of State and Secretary of Defense under Truman.” Source: Wikipedia. His brilliance on behalf of […]

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