Market Commentary

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Jingoism & Rare Earths

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: June 5, 2019
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary

“The Trump Administration last year recognized the importance of rare earths elements – albeit as an after-thought – when it pulled them off a list of Chinese imports to be hit with US tariffs. China mines about 80% of the 17 elements that appear on the Periodic Table, and has a lock on about 90% […]

EU Election: Negative But Could Have Been Worse

Author: William Witherell, Ph.D., Post Date: June 3, 2019
Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - EUROPE MAP

The results of the European Union’s Parliamentary elections, held the last weekend in May, were welcomed by investors as being not as bad as many had feared. A broad populist and nationalist anti-EU surge, which had looked possible, was avoided. Pro-EU lawmakers will continue to be in a clear majority, aided by gains by green […]

Fed and Climate Change

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: May 30, 2019
Fed & Climate Change

My note today puzzles over the Fed’s sitting on the sidelines while other central bankers act together to mitigate a growing risk to national economies and the global financial system. As context for this discussion, please take a minute to read this report about the accelerated melting of ice in Antarctica: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/may/16/thinning-of-antarctic-ice-sheets-spreading-inland-rapidly-study. Now to the […]

May FOMC Minutes: Patience

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: May 28, 2019
Federal Reserve - FOMC

In advance of the release of the FOMC’s May minutes, speculation in the press and by financial market participants was that the Committee might cut the federal funds target rate. The main line of conjecture centered on how long the FOMC could continue to miss its inflation target on the downside before a rate cut […]

Memorial Day Reflections

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: May 27, 2019

“[On Saturday, May 25,] more than 980 cadets became army second lieutenants at West Point’s football stadium. America’s Vice-President, Mike Pence, told them President Trump has proposed a $750bn defense budget for 2020 and said the US ‘is once again embracing our role as the leader of the free world.’ “ ‘It is a virtual […]

Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (May 20, 2019 – May 24, 2019)

Author: Cumberland Advisors, Post Date: May 26, 2019
Week In Review

The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team. These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback […]

5G, Huawei, Trade War, Shooting War

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: May 23, 2019
Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - 5G, Huawei, Trade War, Shooting War

From the onset of the Trump trade war we’ve argued that the broad-brush tariffs advocated by Peter Navarro were damaging and that a very targeted approach on security and intellectual property would have been better. Finally, the tariff fight with China is being defined over 5G, which is where critical agreements always needed to be […]

Finally, Some Positive Trade News

Author: William Witherell, Ph.D., Post Date: May 21, 2019
Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Global Trade

Toward the end of a week during which global markets were pummeled by a sudden worsening in the prospects for a trade agreement between China and the US, President Trump announced two positive developments in US trade relations with our allies. The first was a decision to defer for six months a scheduled imposition of […]

“Nations, Wars and Liberal Democracy” by George Friedman

Author: George Friedman, Post Date: May 20, 2019
“Nations, Wars and Liberal Democracy” by George Friedman

My friend George Friedman is an internationally known geopolitical forecaster and strategist on international affairs and the founder and chairman of Geopolitical Futures (https://geopoliticalfutures.com/). He’s also a bestselling author whose most popular book, The Next 100 Years, is kept alive by the prescience of its predictions. George has briefed numerous military and government organizations in […]

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