Market Commentary

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Federal Reserve Independence – Under Attack Again?

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: October 18, 2018
Federal Reserve - Independence

The last few days, President Trump has made inflammatory and in some instances misguided remarks as to the nature of current Fed policy, its impact on the stock market and potentially on the economy. Examples follow: “It is a correction (the decline in the stock market) that I feel is caused by the Federal Reserve.” […]

Hurricane Michael and Bond Portfolio Management

Author: Patricia Healy, CFA, Post Date: October 17, 2018
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary

The devastation from Michael in terms of lives and property damage is still being assessed. Our hearts go out to those affected. We have written (http://www.cumber.com/wildfires-abound/) about the general uptick in economic activity in a municipality after a storm or other natural disaster and the resulting maintenance of credit ratings. However, there could be a period […]

Doc Holliday, Jay Powell, Donald Trump & The Piano

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: October 12, 2018
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary by David Kotok

“Ready, Fire, Aim”? In Understanding and Managing Public Organizations, Hal Rainey makes the point that “the intangible issues of culture, values, human relations – matters that many managers regard as fuzzy and unmanageable – can and must be skillfully managed.” The contrary approach, which is favored by many companies and government agencies, can be summarized […]

VIX Inversion

Author: Leo Chen, Ph.D., Post Date: October 9, 2018
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary - Leo Chen, Ph.D.

VIX, the “fear gauge,” measures S&P 500 near-term volatility by using options that expire in 23–37 days. Therefore, the VIX we often discuss is the 1-month volatility index. However, the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) also publishes 3-month (VIX3M) and 6-month (VIX6M) volatility indexes, which are less well known. The 3-month and 6-month VIX indexes […]

Another Italian Drama – Why It Matters

Author: William Witherell, Ph.D., Post Date: October 3, 2018
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary - Bill Witherell, Ph.D.

Government deficit out of control, irresponsible government policies, tumbling bond prices and bank share prices, threat of rating-agency downgrades, political instability – we have seen similar Italian dramas in the past that, in the end, did not lead to serious financial market contagion. Nevertheless, there are reasons to be concerned that this time the impact […]

Taxable Total Return 3rd Quarter Review

Author: Daniel Himelberger, Post Date: October 1, 2018
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary

Treasury yields went up across the curve throughout the third quarter of 2018. Once again the rate move was led by the front end of the yield curve, with Treasury bills and notes out to three years experiencing the largest increase in yield. The longer-dated Treasuries were not far behind, with the 10-year Treasury holding […]

SCOTUS

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date:
Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - SCOTUS

Readers are invited to check out the background of this case scheduled for SCOTUS at the end of this month: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gamble_v._United_States. Here is the Wikipedia summary: “Gamble v. United States is a pending United States Supreme Court case about the separate sovereignty exception to the Double Jeopardy Clause of the Fifth Amendment to the United States […]

FOMC Closes Out Q3 2018

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: September 28, 2018
Federal Reserve - FOMC

As Treasury markets had correctly predicted, the FOMC raised its target range for federal funds by 25 basis points to 2.0%–2.25% at its meeting on Wednesday, Sept. 26. Perhaps more importantly, it also deleted the observation that policy remains accommodative, though Chairman Powell went out of his way in his opening remarks to point out […]

Q3 2018 Municipal Credit Commentary

Author: Patricia Healy, CFA, Post Date:
Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Q3 2018 Municipal Credit Commentary

Updates, budgets, potential future stresses, state ratings, default study, and last but not least, storms Last quarter we focused our 2Q 2018 municipal credit commentary on two SCOTUS (Supreme Court of the United States) rulings. One allows states to collect tax on out-of-state internet sales while the other restricts public unions from requiring that non-union […]

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