Market Commentary


John McCain & Return of Prisoners

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: May 9, 2018
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary by David Kotok

The morning email (today) from my friend Dennis Gartman really struck home with me. Dennis and I have a standing agreement to grant each other permission to quote each other. So here is what I read in Dennis’ morning missive: “Senator John McCain has terminal brain cancer and shall soon pass from the scene. He […]

Fed, Fishing, Labor Data

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: May 8, 2018
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary by David Kotok

We thank readers for comments on our Sunday morning piece about the Fed and the risk of policy mistakes. For those who missed it, the link is here: For those who missed my colleague Bob Eisenbeis’s piece on Fed policy, here’s the link: Bob raised a technical question internally, which we will share […]

Fed, Employment, Mistake or Correct? Munis?

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: May 6, 2018
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary by David Kotok

Albert Einstein was, it turns out, apparently not the person who defined insanity as “doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result” (see; but it’s a good definition just the same. The definition certainly applies in economics and financial markets when we apply regression analysis to data on the assumption […]

May FOMC Decision

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: May 4, 2018
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary by Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D.

To no one’s surprise, the FOMC left its target range for the federal funds rate constant at 1.5 to 1.75%. This decision maintains the Committee’s record of no rate hikes at meetings where no SEP forecasts were available and also spaces out its gradual normalization of policy. There is virtually no information in the statement […]

Thucydides–Part 2

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: May 2, 2018

Many thanks to readers for comments about our “Thucydides – Part 1.” For those who missed it the link is In this part 2 we must first offer an apology to Professor Graham Allison. An astute reader caught a typo on a third occurrence of his first name, deep in the text of part […]

Thucydides–Part 1

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: April 28, 2018
Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Thucydides Trap

“Let China sleep; when she wakes, she will shake the world.” – Napoleon, 1817 (citation source: Graham Allison) “We really don’t think it was tariffs – those have been in the public domain for days. Rather, we believe the market has a very unhealthy dynamic at the moment. Washington policy is critical to the market […]

Global Economy Strengthening with Upside and Downside Risks Broadly Balanced

Author: Bill Witherell, Ph.D., Post Date: April 27, 2018
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary - Bill Witherell, Ph.D.

Last week the Spring Meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank brought together in Washington the world’s finance ministers, central bankers, financial experts and economists, other government officials, and invited representatives from the private sector, academia, and civil society organizations. A central issue for discussion at these meetings is the outlook […]

Marcus Island

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: April 23, 2018
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary by David Kotok

An isolated Pacific island barely big enough to accommodate an airstrip has gained global importance (see photo: Some 787 miles east of South Iwo Jima, Marcus Island, or as the Japanese call it, Minami-Tori-shima, meaning “Southern Bird Island,” is the southernmost island under Japanese governance and within the Japanese economic security zone. In its history […]

Global Dialogue & Exchange of Divergent Perspectives: The Rocky Mountain Economic Summit

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: April 19, 2018
David Kotok & Raphael Bostic

Leo Chen, Ph.D., Portfolio Manager & Quantitative Strategist for Cumberland Advisors, will join me to speak on July 12th for an annual gathering of economists, bankers, academics, and finance industry representatives known as the Rocky Mountain Economic Summit. If you missed Dr. Chen’s recent commentary on the VIX and volatility in the market, you can […]

Some Thoughts About The Stock Market

Author: , Post Date: April 16, 2018
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary by David Kotok

We thought we would list a few things for readers to think about when contemplating the US stock market. 1. The first is a brilliant research observation from Morgan Stanley’s Andrew Sheets, who writes from London: “The result can materially boost the income a USD investor receives if they buy overseas assets and remove the […]

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