Market Commentary

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Guns: Part 1, A Personal Journey

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: February 25, 2018
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary by David Kotok

Each year at the Camp Kotok gathering in Maine, there is an optional morning for those who want to shoot. A variety of weapons are available. All shooting is supervised and all is on ranges or safe venues. We debated doing this for a few years and then tried it. The response was large. Many […]

The Classic DuPont Model

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: February 21, 2018

In their February 15 DataTrek newsletter, Jessica Rabe and Nick Colas refer to the classic DuPont model in discussing how to deal with equity valuations. They admit that “Permanent changes to the tax code shift returns higher.” We agree. They then temper their outlook by introducing the deficit issue, inflation expectations, risks of higher interest […]

Vexed by VIX? Ask Pravit Chintawongvanich.

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: February 19, 2018
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary by David Kotok

Many market agents seem vexed by the VIX. Their recent lessons include a dramatic spiking of volatility, the reactionary pricing of an exchange-traded note (ETN), some forced liquidation, and a blisteringly fast correction in stock prices. The average stock dropped 14% in only a few weeks. Everyone following the investment markets in the US knows […]

Piggy Bank

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: February 13, 2018
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary by Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D.

One of the characteristics of a struggling republic is the inability to separate its central bank’s resources from the fiscal largesse of the federal government. Using central bank resources to avoid addressing funding of the government is a sure path to runaway inflation, economic decline, and periodic financial crisis. Take the example of Argentina, whose […]

Trump Infrastructure – First Take

Author: Patricia Healy, CFA, Post Date: February 12, 2018
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary by Patricia Healy, CFA

The President’s infrastructure vision is now in the hands of Congress, which is tasked with devising a plan that promotes investment in our nation’s well-being. The vision includes over $1 trillion in investment over the next ten years. Infrastructure investment is sorely needed, as is demonstrated by the Association of Civil Engineers’ report card on […]

Politics Threatens the Fed

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date:
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary by David Kotok

“Yet there is also good reason to worry,” wrote the Economist on a page 10 editorial dated February 3, 2018. We agree. They made the case with this summary: “An independent central bank can be better trusted to act swiftly to curb inflation. That trust also gives it freedom to cut interest rates when the […]

Money, Banking, Energy, Economics on February 22

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: February 7, 2018
What now, Cuba - USF Sarasota-Manatee

Economic and financial issues will be thoroughly discussed on February 22 at USF Sarasota-Manatee. The confirmed lineup includes Sara Banaszak of Exxon Mobil, who has expertise in the energy sector. Everything from Puerto Rico Electric Power to offshore drilling to national constraints is on the table. Eugenio Alemán carries the Latin connection; he is senior […]

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