Market Commentary

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Leen’s Lodge Labor Day Musings

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: September 5, 2017

1. The test of wills with North Korea intensifies, as all observers of this news flow confirm. 2. The revisions in Friday’s employment report were disconcerting. 3. The central bank picture remains fuzzy as divergence in policy makes interest-rate forecasting more difficult.

Hurricane Harvey – Unprecedented Event?

Author: Patricia Healy, CFA, Post Date: August 30, 2017

Our thoughts go out to all those displaced or injured, those who had homes and businesses destroyed, and especially those who lost loved ones. Many of us have been glued to the TV, focused on the news surrounding the devastating damage that has occurred and is continuing to occur at the time of this writing. […]

Debt Ceiling Part II

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: August 29, 2017

Bullets on the debt-ceiling charade: 1. No one expects the US to default. So why has the credit default swap (CDS) on the US risen in price? Answer: Bond market agents want to add a little insurance just in case American politics deliver a negative surprise. 2. The short end of the US Treasury curve […]

Inflation and the FOMC: Minutes of July 2017

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: August 28, 2017

For many years, the so-called Phillips curve has provided the inflation forecast framework underlying much of the FOMC’s policy discussions.  Yet both before and especially after the financial crisis, the Fed and FOMC members have consistently under-forecasted inflation.  A new working paper from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia adds to what is now a […]

Emerging-Market Rally Has Further to Run

Author: Bill Witherell, Ph.D., Post Date: August 25, 2017

Emerging market equities are continuing to outperform remarkably this year. While a pullback seems overdue, there are a number of reasons to expect the trend to remain upward, perhaps for several years more. The iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF, EEM, is up 28.19% year-to-date August 24. The Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF, VWO, has gained […]

Biggest Rainbow Trout

Author: , Post Date: August 24, 2017

The biggest rainbow trout I ever caught lives at the Keystone (Colorado) Village Ice Rink, a five-acre lake at 9321 feet above sea level. Here is that wonderful fish, held by Matt Campanella, a skilled fly fishing guide. Keystone is best known for winter sports like skiing and for its eponymous conference center. The lake […]

What is Camp Kotok???

Author: Sharon Prizant, Post Date: August 23, 2017
Camp Kotok Maine 2017 - David Kotok, Susan Collins and Sharon Prizant

What is Camp Kotok??? This is not a routine Cumberland Advisors Commentary!  Rather than offering commentary on issues and events of importance to the investment and advisory community, this Commentary reports on a very unique and special event for the investment and advisory community known as “Camp Kotok”, held annually at Leen’s Lodge in Grand […]

Rats and Repatriation

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: August 21, 2017

“Rats have been said to be the first to sense an impending disaster, such as a sinking ship or a gas leak in a mine – so if rats are leaving, it’s a good idea to follow!” “Early records of the expression [‘like rats deserting a sinking ship’] go back all the way to Pliny […]

Charlottesville

Author: David R. Kotok & Philippa Dunne, Post Date: August 17, 2017

This commentary was co-authored by Philippa Dunne (The Liscio Report) and David Kotok (Cumberland Advisors). It reflects their personal views. A saga unfolds. First, snippets of online news, followed by TV images and “breaking news” reports. “Another one,” she thinks. “Ugh!” he exclaims, “madness! Why? What is the matter with these people?” Two thousand miles […]

War Risk and Markets

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: August 14, 2017

“Geopolitical tensions reared up last week and eclipsed key fundamental data points. The escalating war of words between the US and North Korea resulted in a textbook flight to safety into bonds, and also provided an excuse to take profits on equities, especially after the Dow posted nine straight record highs. So far, the tensions […]

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For a list of all equity recommendations for the past year, please contact Timothy J. Lyle at 800-257-7013, ext. 350. It is not our intention to state or imply in any manner that past results and profitability is an indication of future performance. All material presented is compiled from sources believed to be reliable. However, accuracy cannot be guaranteed.

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