"Tiger fishing is best during a waxing gibbous moon," said George Bell.  We put the rods and water cooler in the boat and headed toward the middle of the river.  The results of this fishing expedition may be accessed toward the end of this commentary.

The "deepest channel" of the Lower Zambezi River is the "official" border between Zambia and Zimbabwe (Zim).  George is originally from Zim and closely follows events there.  We talked as we motored downriver to one of his favorite places.  Zim was on the right (south), Zambia on the left (north).

The hippos and crocs were ubiquitous and ignored national boundaries. They could do so safely.  We chose not to cross the border.

Zimbabwe has withdrawn the latest round of its currency from circulation.  The largest denomination in use was the 100-trillion Zim-dollar bill.  Tourists can now buy them for a single US dollar at gift shops near Victoria Falls.  The Zim currency had become so hyperinflated that it reached full worthlessness.  In Zim today the US dollar, South African rand, and euro are in circulation.  The government pays its agents in US dollars that come in from foreign exchange transactions.  In Zim the maximum pay level is now 100 US dollars per month.  Note that in neighboring Zambia the minimum wage is about the equivalent of 100 US dollars.  That is an indication of how far these two economies have diverged.

At dinner we discussed how regimes alter policy and how Zim is the extreme example of a sequence that was summarized by LSU professor Joe Mason as political change leading to socialization and industrial policy followed by inflation, as the government dominates or controls the financial engine.  In Zim's case, Joe noted that the politics were those of “a "ruthless dictatorship.”  The target of the industrial policy in Zim is agriculture, and property seizure, corrupted courts, and painfully inflicted police power have also been characteristics of this regime change.

That led us to a discussion of the present evolution underway in the United States.  We do see major political change in the massive repudiation of the Bush Administration and with the now overwhelming majority in the House and the Senate of a single party that also includes the president.  Add only one or two Democrat senators, and the US will be operating under a full one-party rule.

There is a trend toward growing socialization, which will accelerate when the proposed Obama tax structure becomes law.  By then, less than half the wage earners in America will be paying income taxes; hence, the funding of government will fall on the minority.

We already see an industrial policy in banking.  And we have one in housing finance now that most residential mortgage lending is done by government agencies. We are also evolving an industrial policy with autos.  We've had one in agriculture for years; federally subsidized ethanol policy was one of the worst results.

Will this lead to inflation?  Our central bank claims vigilance while expanding its balance sheet in ways without precedent.  Clearly markets see an inflation risk and are raising interest rates.  Foreigners worry about the US dollar and evidence their views in the foreign-exchange market.  The jury is still out on an eventual large inflation while the US economy remains in recession, but one must certainly admit that the inflation risk is high.  The political influence on the central bank by our Congress doesn’t lessen this longer-term inflation fear.

Dinner conversation ended with more questions than answers.  To sum it up: can the US borrow trillions, run expansive monetary policy, raise the amount of government control of private enterprise, and still keep its head above water?

Speaking of water, George successfully reached the place where tiger fish were supposed to be.  Off went the motor.  At first some casting was needed.  Trial and error with flies and lures ultimately led to success.  George's choices brought about results, as readers can see at www.cumber.com.  Here is the link to the picture: http://www.cumber.com/special/fish060109.jpg

We are leaving Kulefu tomorrow and will be back at our desk on Monday.  Kulefu is a word in the language of the Shona tribe that is indigenous to this region.  It means "far away place."  It certainly is that, yet in this modern, wonderful world I can catch a tiger fish and email George's digital photo for any interested reader to see.

Steve Liesman, you would like it here.  The new Orvis Helios 8 wt. performed well.

So did George and the whole staff at Zambezi Kulefu Camp and at Puku Ridge.  We hope to return soon.  See www.sanctuaryretreats.com.