It is still dark at 4:30 AM. I will try for one more snooze and then walk to the lodge for Wi-Fi. Now that the moon is setting, the night sky has a touch of haze. The stars are still brightly visible in this rural Wyoming heaven. The temperature is around 60°F. Cool, dry air greets me when I open my cabin door at Trout Ranch. I listen to the soft rush of a small waterfall and the stream's teasing rivulets. It is too dark to see any trout, but I know they are there.
This is the setting for the pre-GIC Jackson Hole meeting.
Last night's dinner gathering included talk of Europe and Libor scandal and policy options. Some personalities from panels on Friday's program are here. George Tsetsekos is back from Greece, which triggered the "what's next and when" discussion. It ended with speculation about Italy and the risk with Italy's sovereign debt. Fund mangers here are genuinely worried and cite many good reasons. One manager traveled here from Paris.
Dino Kos, a seasoned Fed official who is now in the private sector, will be speaking on Friday. Dino, Bill Stone, and Bob Eisenbeis make up the three retired Feddies panel, moderated by Bloomberg's Mike McKee. Chatham House rules govern our private pre-conference talk.
The Libor scandal is distracting central bankers from policy making at a time when policy is sorely tested. The back-and-forth dart throwing between the Fed and the Bank of England was one of our warmer dinner topics. The Libor scandal now reaches multiple currencies, countries, and banking institutions. Friday's conference will certainly be lively.
The link to the conference agenda and last-minute registration is www.interdependence.org. The conference center holds 300, and about 200 are prospectively registered. There is room for last-minute additions. Some have noted that the GIC Rocky Mountain Summit in July has a larger attendance than the Fed's meeting in late August. There are more market and entrepreneurial folks here.
NFIB's Bill Dunkelberg is simpatico with these real businesses. He, John Silvia, Catherine Mann, and Steve Sexauer makeup the econ panel. They will offer candid outlook views.
Meanwhile, markets continue to reflect global turmoil (Europe) and mixed economic signals in the US. I am glad to be holding some cash in reserve in US portfolios.
Now, I’ll have a peek at first light breaking in the east. Then the sunrise. Then the scent of fresh morning coffee. After breakfast I will seek out a cooperative trout. I suspect some market and finance doings may distract me, so I had better not take my eye off the fly.