Cryptocurrency

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: July 26, 2017
image_pdfimage_print

For an in-depth discussion of blockchain and cryptocurrencies see the June 2017 white paper published by the World Economic Forum: “Realizing the Potential of Blockchain: A Multistakeholder Approach to the Stewardship of Blockchain and Cryptocurrencies” (www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Realizing_Potential_Blockchain.pdf).

Bitcoin, Ethereum, Monero, Litecoin, Stratis, and many other strange names now collectively make up an asset class of about $100 billion. Bitcoin is about half of the total.

Wild price gyrations have characterized this speculative asset class with more than a hundred players. Its short history has spawned extraordinary future price forecasts in the new theater of cryptocurrency. I’ve read one forecast arguing that a bitcoin could bring between $12,000 and $55,000 within five years. Readers may follow these price gyrations at coinmarketcap.com/currencies.

In the very beginning, cryptocurrency was viewed as a way to make payments under the radar screen of government regulation and supervision. That is changing. Slowly an expanding number of legitimate businesses accept cryptocurrency as a payment method. They usually immediately convert bitcoins or other currency into the ordinary fiat money in use.

The near immediacy of a blockchain transfer facilitates transactions. Often there is a service fee similar to the charge for using a traditional credit or debit card.

So what started out as a mechanism for secretive transactions that could not be traced easily has now transitioned into broader usage.

But what about those wild price gyrations? Should we consider Bitcoin and its growing list of competing cryptocurrencies money? We think the answer is no.

We can think of a given cryptocurrency as a way to transfer money using a methodology that bypasses the traditional banking system payments we are accustomed to. Cryptocurrency transfer is a version of an electronic debit card. So it does permit the classic function of money as a medium of exchange.

But money is also a store of value. At least that is true of a currency with low or no inflation. And money is used to measure and account. Thus we have price references denominated in dollars or euro or yen. Bitcoin has not yet attained the ubiquity needed to meet those tests.

cumber map
Cumberland Advisors® is registered with the SEC under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940. All information contained herein is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a solicitation or offer to sell securities or investment advisory services. Such an offer can only be made in the states where Cumberland Advisors is either registered or is a Notice Filer or where an exemption from such registration or filing is available. New accounts will not be accepted unless and until all local regulations have been satisfied. This presentation does not purport to be a complete description of our performance or investment services. Please feel free to forward our commentaries (with proper attribution) to others who may be interested. It is not our intention to state or imply in any manner that past results and profitability is an indication of future performance. All material presented is compiled from sources believed to be reliable. However, accuracy cannot be guaranteed.
Loading...