Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Farmers & Credit Issues

While Washington (politics and baseball) dominates the headlines, the American farmer continues to be bludgeoned by the Peter Navarro-designed and Donald Trump-approved trade war. The last two years have seen a significant erosion in US agricultural exports, and farmers have been badly hurt.

We have written many times about time lags in trade policy. It takes a year or more to get from tweeting threats to actual and measurable destructive outcomes. So here’s an update on outcomes of Navarro’s advice for the broad-based tariffs, which advice Trump followed. In doing so, Trump invited retaliatory tariffs on Agriculture and Aquaculture. Nearly every economist I’ve met advised against Navarro’s policy prescription. At this summer’s gathering in Maine, only 1 supported Navarro; 36 opposed; 3 were unsure.

The following report, detailing sharply rising farm bankruptcies, the impact on farmer’s income and more, is from the American Farm Bureau. It is loaded with information. When you read it, please ask yourself what soybeans (agriculture) or lobsters (aquaculture) have to do with intellectual property rights and 5G development.

Trump continues on a self-destructive path that is also taking down American farming. Notice the state-by-state details in the report and please muse on the potential Electoral College outcome in next year’s election. Please read the first three paragraphs if you’re short on time.

Now here’s the Farm Bureau: https://www.fb.org/market-intel/farm-bankruptcies-rise-again

David R. Kotok
Chairman and Chief Investment Officer
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Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.