Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (Feb 04, 2019 – Feb 08, 2019)

Week In ReviewThe Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team. These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.

MATT MCALEER’S WEEKLY RECAP

Matt McAleer invites John Mousseau to join him in this week’s wrap up. John relates continued demand for bonds. How about volatility in interest rates? And what effect are taxes and returns having in muniland and for investors? Will Trump change taxes again? John weighs in on these things.

Now onto Matt’s recap. Sometimes the markets act very reasonably from a trading standpoint. As mentioned 2 weeks ago, weekly momentum had reached elevated levels that normally create a pause or pullback. Saw some of that over the past 6-7 trading sessions. He talks about where he sees strength. Have a great weekend. WATCH HERE.

Matt McAleer and John Mousseau will provide extended quarterly videos for our clients that will incorporate equities and fixed-income in the coming weeks. Stay tuned!

 


MARKET COMMENTARY

 

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      UPCOMING EVENTS

      Financial Literacy Day – Financial Markets and the Economy
      You’ll want to mark your calendar for Thursday, April 11, when the University of South Florida Sarasota-Manatee joins Cumberland Advisors and the Global Interdependence Center in hosting the third annual “Financial Markets and the Economy Financial Literacy Day” event.

      Financial Markets and the Economy Financial Literacy Day III

      The Outlook for the US Stock Market & Global Economic Outlook will be a feature and there will be a special report on the “Use of the Bloomberg Terminals – Two Years Later” after Cumberland Advisors and David Kotok gifted them to the University led by Paul Bova, Director of Development and/or Dr. GJ de Vreede, Dean, University of South Florida Sarasota-Manatee College of Business. We look forward to seeing what level of impact this has had on area students seeking to enhance their educations and understanding of finance and finance related tools.

      Financial Markets and the Economy Panels, Talks, and Discussions Include:

        • Keynote Speaker: Gretchen Morgenson, The Wall Street Journal: Senior Special Writer, Investigations Unit
        • A Conversation with Susan Harper, Canada’s Consul General in Miami
        • Session I – The Stock Market
          • Matt McAleer, Executive VP & Director of Equity Strategies, Cumberland Advisors
          • Richard Hoey, Senior Economic Advisor to BNY Mellon Wealth Management
          • Moderator: Maryanne Waldman, RBC, Boston, MA
        • Session II – Health Hunger and Philanthropy Judith Monroe, President and CEO, CDC Foundation Erin McLeod, CEO, Friendship Centers, Sarasota, FL Lisa Marsh Ryerson, National President, AARP. Formerly, President and CEO, Wells College, Aurora, NY. Gabriel Hament, Cumberland Advisors Moderator: Lisa Shaw, CFP, CIMA, Managing Partner, Cygnus Asset Management, LLC
        • Session III – How the World Looks to Me Leland Miller, CEO, China Beige Book International Paul O’Brien, Former Deputy Chief Investment Officer, Strategy and Planning Department, Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, ADIA. Moderator: John Authers, Author and Bloomberg Columnist

         

      • Learn More about Financial Markets and the Economy Financial Literacy Day III at USFSM.

        FEATURED INTERVIEW

        Camp Kotok – Judith Monroe from CDC Foundation & David Kotok explore Zika & the role of the foundation for the CDC, including how they help fulfill and extend the CDC’s mission and challenges. A self-described well-kept secret, the source of their funding will surprise many. Can they make the world a better place?


         


        IN THE NEWS

         

      • Sarasota Magazine – Cumberland Advisors Sets Third Annual Financial Literacy Conference for April 11
      • Quoted:Cumberland Advisors 02/06/2019
      • Sarasota Herald Tribune – ROBERT EISENBEIS: Tax the rich? Check the facts first
      • Quoted:Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D. 02/04/2019
      • Sarasota Herald Tribune – ‘US manufacturing is doing well and will continue to do well,’ Fed economist says
      • Quoted:Cumberland Advisors / Bill Strauss 02/01/2019
      • Bloomberg – Cumberland Chair David Kotok (Podcast)
      • Quoted:David R. Kotok 02/01/2019
      • Bloomberg – The Fed Is Guessing As it Plays With Fire: David Kotok (Radio)
      • Quoted:David R. Kotok 01/29/2019
      • Bloomberg TV – Cumberland’s Kotok Sees a Need to Expand Uncertainty Premium
      • Quoted:David R. Kotok 01/29/2019
      • SNN TV – USFSM hosts climate change presentation
      • Quoted:Cumberland Advisors / GIC/ USFSM Event Participants 01/25/2019
      • USFSM – Climate change summit draws crowd at USF Sarasota-Manatee
      • Quoted:Cumberland Advisors / GIC/ USFSM Event Participants 01/25/2019
      • Bradenton Herald – Red tide is always bad. Global warming is making it worse, researcher says
      • Quoted:Cumberland Advisors / GIC/ USFSM Event Participants 01/25/2019

      • IN CASE YOU MISSED IT

         

          • Tires, Chickens, and Trade – One Week Later

            Bill Witherell, Ph.D. 09/23/2009

            In the week following President Obama’s imposition of tariffs on Chinese tires, some commentators expressed confidence that the resulting trade dispute would be well-contained by the two countries and argued that the President had to throw some “red meat” to his trade union supporters. Other, including this writer, expressed concerns that this move could be damaging to the Obama Administration, costly for the US, and risk triggering more significant protectionist actions. The pro-business British magazine The Economist was particularly forceful in the cover story of its September 17 issue, entitled “Economic Vandalism.” The article begins with the following: “A protectionist move that is bad politics, bad economics, bad diplomacy and hurts America. Did we miss anything?” Some developments last week are encouraging, but others are not. Starting with the negative, as was anticipated, workers in numerous US industries also suffering from competition with the Chinese have begun to clamor for similar relief. Continued…

          • Joseph Stalin plus 75 (years) = Vladimir Putin

            David R. Kotok 08/15/2008

            Seventy-five years ago another Soviet thug by the name of Stalin chased a food supply and starved the Ukraine. He killed between 7 and 10 million people and thought nothing of it. In an ironic quirk of history, Stalin was born in Gori, Georgia. We now say “Ukraine” and not “the” Ukraine because Ukraine is supposedly an independent country. The Orange Revolution was supposed to have peacefully freed it from the Soviet sphere. So much for wishful thinking. Georgia’s experiment with western-style freedom has ended. The modern-day Stalin looked in George Bush’s eyes and seized the moment. Now Putin is ready to take Ukraine. Anyone who thinks the Georgia events were a one-off and isolated incident is overindulging on vodka. Ukrainian president Yushchenko’s attempt to limit Russian troop movements and obtain notice of them will fail. Putin will use this as the next pretext. We can learn from Georgia how brutal the Russian “ursus horribilus” can be when it chooses to send a message. It will get harder for Mr. Putin when he starts to mess with Poland, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. These are now member states of the European Union. So are others like Slovakia, Slovenia, and Czech Republic. The Russians may draw a line between the EU members and the EU nonmembers. They will use economic warfare against the former and military intervention against the latter. All this leads to more trouble. Continued…


          • ADDITIONAL RESOURCES

            Lessons from Thucydides

            Lessons from Thucydides on Parchment with Hoplites thin banner
            David R. Kotok has written the monograph pamphlet, “Lessons from Thucydides” detailing information asymmetries and their implications for investors and world affairs. The concept of a Thucydides Trap and its rise and avoidability (or lack thereof) is often debated and David makes a case for dealing with them weaving current and historical events into a comprehensive narrative.

            This free monograph also has lessons for President Donald Trump’s trade policy. Can the United States avoid a Thucydides Trap with China & Xi Jinping? Will you benefit from the Lessons of Thucydides or fall victim to a Thucydides Trap? If information is key, you now have a handbook at your fingertips. Download a copy of this monograph in either PDF (free) or Kindle ($.99) format. https://www.cumber.com/thucydides/

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            Thank you for engaging with us, your comments always welcome.