Market Commentary

Insights

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary offers insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies. Our readers appreciate its timeliness, depth of analysis, and quality of research.

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  • Putin
     Author(s): David R. Kotok | Sun March 17, 2024

    Putin


    I’m starting this commentary with an analysis of Putin’s recent state of the nation address (“Putin’s Six-Year Manifesto Sets Sights Beyond Ukraine,” https://carnegieendowment.org/politika/91872). Please take a few minutes. The source is the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. The…


  • LEI, Yield Curve Inversion, Recession?
     Author(s): David R. Kotok | Tue March 12, 2024

    Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary - LEI, Yield Curve Inversion, Recession by David R. Kotok


    Every time the Leading Economic Index (LEI) has been negative year-over-year and the yield curve was simultaneously inverted, there has been a recession – not just a slowdown but a recession. We have decades of data to support this assertion.


  • Chairman Powell’s Semi-annual Monetary Policy Testimony
     Author(s): Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D. | Mon March 11, 2024

    Chairman Powell’s Semi-annual Monetary Policy Testimony


     

    Chairman Powell gave his semi-annual monetary policy testimony on Wednesday before the House Financial Services Committee and on Thursday before the Senate Banking Committee. His introductory remarks were fairly short. 

     


  • Sam Rines Guest Words: Oil, Guyana, Venezuela, US Economics
     Author(s): David R. Kotok | Sun March 10, 2024

    Sam Rines Guest Words


    Sam Rines penned this as a Managing Director of CORBŪ and has granted me permission to share his entire discussion about oil, Guyana, etc. with our readers. He is right on the mark. I thank Sam for his analysis and letting me share it with our readers.


  • Cumberland Advisors Week in Review + Digest Mar 04 - Mar 08, 2024
     Author(s): Norman Dempsey, MBA | Sat March 9, 2024

    Mar 08, 2024 Week in Review


    The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review + Digest is a compendium of news, commentary, and opinion from or of interest to our team. These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We may include older and/or guest…


  • Phillips Curve: Covid Shock is Over!
     Author(s): David R. Kotok | Mon March 4, 2024

    Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary - Phillips Curve - Covid Shock is Over by David R. Kotok


    We believe that the effects of Covid on the economy and financial markets are diminishing. And we believe that the Phillips Curve (which represents the tradeoff between inflation and unemployment) is supporting this. For now, we want to share a long-term chart of the Phillips curve. The…


  • Cuba Series, Part 4: Helms–Burton & Readers Respond
     Author(s): David R. Kotok | Sun March 3, 2024

    Cuba Series Part 4


    We thank readers for their many comments about our Cuba series. The three parts are available here:


  • CDS and Interest Rates: 2023 & Beyond
     Author(s): David R. Kotok | Tue February 27, 2024

    Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary - CDS and Interest Rates, 2023 & Beyond by David R. Kotok


    A few readers have questioned the use of credit default swap (CDS) prices as a determining factor in setting interest rates. Please note that CDS is beyond the control of the Federal Reserve. Prices about the default risk insurance on the United States are set in global markets and really…


  • Munis, SALT, & Trump
     Author(s): David R. Kotok | Sun February 25, 2024

    Munis, SALT, & Trump


    As my colleague John Mousseau recently noted in a weekend video, the tax-free Muni bond market outperformed the US Treasury bond market during the weakness period of trading a few days ago. The question asked by a client was, “Why”?Here’s a possible explanation.


  • The January 2024 FOMC Meeting Minutes
     Author(s): Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D. | Fri February 23, 2024

    Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary - The January 2024 FOMC Meeting Minutes


    Each year, the FOMC’s first order of business is to elect officers. This year, Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell was once again elected to be chairman of the FOMC. On February 2, former president Donald Trump stated that he would not reappoint Powell as chairman of the Federal Reserve…


 

 

"The mind is not a vessel to be filled but a fire to be kindled."

Plutarch