Market History and Metaphors

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: October 13, 2017
image_pdfimage_print

“History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes,” Mark Twain supposedly once observed. As the Fed begins to shrink its balance sheet even as it determinedly jacks up interest rates, we would be prudent to consider where history has rhymed before and what we might learn from those instances.

2007–08

This is the tenth anniversary of the launching of a criminal investigation into the collapse of Bear Stearns. Here is a link to a quick chronology of the demise of the firm: reuters.com/article/sppage014-n17240319.

Reflecting on these ten years and the history leading up to and since the financial crisis is important. At Cumberland, we attempt to learn from history, and we respect it. Among our 40-plus people we have some oldies, some not quite so oldies, and also some youngies who were still students when Bear Stearns failed. Our youngest employee’s age was a single digit when the financial crisis entered its early stages.

Let’s think about this for a minute. Anyone in the financial services industry in the United States who is under 40 has no, or only limited, experience of the pre-crisis period. True, there are now many books for those who have the time and inclination to read about what unfolded. A couple of them are ours. But time has presented us with new issues, and ten years of excess reserves in the global banking system and ten years of zero interest rates have been applied as a lubricant to ease recovery following the crisis period.

Few remember that the first primary dealer to fail was Countrywide. And few have read the Federal Reserve history to see how the Fed amended its rules to facilitate the absorption of Countrywide into Bank of America. That was the first instance in which the Fed started to pick winners and losers. As my friend Chris Whalen reminds us, Washington Mutual wasn’t a primary dealer. It was treated differently than Countrywide was. For an interesting history lesson, see this Gretchen Morgenson column from June 2016: nytimes.com/2016/06/26/business/countrywide-mortgage-devastation-lingers.

We can now read how decisions to leverage up at Lehman Brothers were probably influenced by the notion that the Fed treats primary dealers differently than it does others. There was great surprise in autumn of 2008 when market agents learned that that was no longer going to be true.

Fast-forward, and there is now a discussion about releasing AIG from the imposed structures of a decade ago. And we still haven’t addressed the issues surrounding the government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The housing market and mortgage finance in the US have still not normalized. Furthermore, that is not likely to happen for years more, given the political deadlock in Washington.

The 1960s

Here is some history cited by Credit Suisse in a September 28 research report:

“In January 1966 US inflation was low. Headline PCE inflation was 1.7% (y/y), core was 1.4%. Inflation had for years been low and stable. Since the sixties began, the highest either figure reached was 2.1%, and both averaged 1.3%. The unemployment rate, which was steady near 5% in the early sixties, had recently begun to trend lower, breaching 4% in early 1966.”

More history from that report:

“By late 1966, the core PCE deflator was above 3%. It would drift higher for the next five years, reaching a peak of 5% in early 1971, two years before the oil price shock that would begin the more famous inflationary episodes of the seventies.”

At Cumberland there are four oldies for whom this history is personal experience. There are a few more “not as oldies” who were students at the time. Most of the rest of the Cumberland crew wasn’t born yet. Very few today recall Arthur Burns, who chaired the Fed during those tumultuous times. I recall two meetings with him. My colleague Bob Eisenbeis was in the early days of his career and remembers this period and Arthur Burns well.

Today we have little inflation and have seen a long period of low inflation. Are we about to rhyme over the next few years? Will the late 1960s be the metaphor?

But history has another lesson.

The 1930s

The following link will take you to the Federal Reserve’s policy action archives. Note that the period covered is when the Fed raised interest rates following the Great Depression and tried to ”normalize” policy: federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomchistorical1937.htm.

Here is a link to a 2011 paper from the New York Fed research website that describes the 1937 “policy mistake”: libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2011/06/commodity-prices-and-the-mistake-of-1937-would-modern-economists-make-the-same-mistake.html.

The author, Gauti Eggertsson, opens with the following summary:

cumber map
Cumberland Advisors® is registered with the SEC under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940. All information contained herein is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a solicitation or offer to sell securities or investment advisory services. Such an offer can only be made in the states where Cumberland Advisors is either registered or is a Notice Filer or where an exemption from such registration or filing is available. New accounts will not be accepted unless and until all local regulations have been satisfied. This presentation does not purport to be a complete description of our performance or investment services. Please feel free to forward our commentaries (with proper attribution) to others who may be interested. It is not our intention to state or imply in any manner that past results and profitability is an indication of future performance. All material presented is compiled from sources believed to be reliable. However, accuracy cannot be guaranteed.
Loading...