TV Appearances

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Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (Dec 02, 2019 – Dec 06, 2019)

The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team.

Week In Review

These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.

CUMBERLAND ADVISORS’ WEEKLY RECAP

As part of Cumberland Advisors’ continuous effort to maintain strong customer relationships, we offer this week’s short video discussing current market conditions and how we are positioning portfolios.


 

Employment report out today. Nice surprise!

This week, we talk about:

-Bonds, inflation, and the yield curve
-Do we see a buying opportunity?
-Equities – Growth, Value, and some comparisons
-When the market starts to rally, money’s chasing growth
-The Employment Report
-Lingering Trade War effects?

Watch in the video player above or at this link: https://youtu.be/eYiWAn4Bzik

Have a great weekend and thank you for joining us at Cumberland Advisors.

Matt enjoys your feedback. You can reach him at:
-Link to Matt’s Email: Matthew.McAleer@Cumber.com
-Link to Matt’s Twitter: https://twitter.com/MattMcAleer4
-Link to Matt’s LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matthew-c-mcaleer/
-Call Matt: (800) 257-7013

Or email us at info@cumber.com or give us a call at (800) 257-7013




David R. Kotok offers this ongoing series of “Year-End & 2020 Forecast Notes” for your consideration. More to come!

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Year-End-&-2020-Forecast-Notes

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Year-End & 2020 Forecast Note #4: Inflation

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: December 6, 2019

The outlook for inflation and for inflation-sensitive financial instruments is still highly uncertain. Note that this prognosis includes TIPS on the bond side and certain inflation-sensitive stock groups on the equity side. The world’s mature economies have been trying to get inflation up to 2% or higher for many years. They’ve had no success. An [Continued…]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Year-End & 2020 Forecast Note #3: Potential Volatility Driven by US Politics

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: December 5, 2019

US politics will be a closely watched, bubbling pot in 2020, and the media will boil over every news item. That said, it is Super Tuesday (March 3) which becomes the key date for Democrats. Republican challengers to Trump seem to be non-starters as best as we can determine. Perhaps the New Hampshire or Massachusetts [Continued…]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Year-End & 2020 Forecast Note #2: A Vulnerable Trajectory for Stock Prices

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: December 4, 2019

In addition to Trade War uncertainty, US stock markets must grapple with problematic earnings estimates for 2020. Typical year-start estimates are higher than actual outcomes, as a bias toward optimism appears around the year-end holiday time. A good example is 2019, when year-start estimates for the S&P 500 were in the $174–178 range. The actual [Continued…]


The MoneyShow Orlando 2020


John Mousseau at the Money Show Orlando

John R. Mousseau, CFA, will be joining a large gathering of members of Wall Street’s financial community in Orlando this winter season for The MoneyShow Orlando 2020. The three days of the conference will focus on new investment ideas that address the current economic and geopolitical environment and will feature tools, strategies, and advice which may help you better position your portfolio.

John will be a featured speaker, giving a review of the bond market in the past year (2019) and what we should expect from the bond market in a presidential election year.

To join John in February 2020 or learn more, please visit: https://conferences.moneyshow.com/moneyshow-orlando/


Bloomberg Surveillance: Negative Interest Rates with Kotok (Radio Podcast)

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: November 27, 2019

Cumberland Advisors’ David R. Kotok talks about negative interest rates, NIRP, and says the European Central Bank’s (ECB) Christine Lagarde has a difficult task right now.

Cumberland's David Kotok on Bloomberg Radio

He also discusses China, the pork shortage, and the impact of viruses on the global food supply.

Running time 25:02, David is introduced at the 10:45 mark – Play Episode: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/audio/2019-11-27/surveillance-negative-interest-rates-with-kotok-podcast

Also see David’s Nov 25, 2019 commentary on NIRP: https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-nirp-lagarde-trump-dickens-holidays/


Collecting toys for the girls and boys! Sarasota County Sheriff’s Office is hosting its third annual holiday toy drive benefiting the 12th Judicial Circuit of Florida’s Guardian ad Litem program and we’re participating at our Sarasota, FL office. Info here: https://bit.ly/2OO8f2I
Pictured in our photo are Cumberland Advisors’ Patricia Healy & Todd Engelhardt with our first round of toys. Thank you to all supporters!
Closer to our Vineland, NJ office? Cumberland County Technical Education Center’s Interact Club has partnered with the Vineland Salvation Army for its eighth annual Holiday Toy Drive. More info: https://bit.ly/2qkd7TS
Thanks to everyone that participates in community service projects, you make the world a better place!!!

In Case You Missed It…

Reflections on Mumbai and What It Might Mean

Author: Bob Eisenbeis, Post Date: December 4, 2008

Several years ago I had an occasion to go on a mission for the IMF to the Central Bank of India, headquartered in Mumbai. It was the second week of December, so it was past the rainy season and the weather was warm, with temperatures in the high 80s and low 90s. That India is the scene of so many incidents of unrest and violence should not be surprising. The wide disparity of income plus the long history of the caste system and discrimination against various ethnic and religious groups is a hard legacy to shake. Poverty hits you even as you land at the airport in Mumbai. At the end of the runway were many acres of tents made out of black plastic garbage bags, which were homes to many. It hits you again on the drive into the city from the airport. A similar sight awaits you in downtown Mumbai from the Central Bank of India, which overlooked a similar several-acre tent city.

Because it was the dry season, work had begun on road repairs. Instead of dump trucks, however, I saw on the way in from the airport many women dressed in colorful saris, each with a basket of dirt on her head, performing the dump trucks’ tasks. [Continued…]


Links to other websites or electronic media controlled or offered by Third-Parties (non-affiliates of Cumberland Advisors) are provided only as a reference and courtesy to our users. Cumberland Advisors has no control over such websites, does not recommend or endorse any opinions, ideas, products, information, or content of such sites, and makes no warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, reliability or suitability of their content. Cumberland Advisors hereby disclaims liability for any information, materials, products or services posted or offered at any of the Third-Party websites. The Third-Party may have a privacy and/or security policy different from that of Cumberland Advisors. Therefore, please refer to the specific privacy and security policies of the Third-Party when accessing their websites.

Sign up for our FREE Cumberland Market Commentaries

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.

Posted on: 12/07/2019 arrow Watch Video arrow
Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Week in Review - Weekend Recap

Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (Nov 25, 2019 – Nov 29, 2019)

The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team.

Week In Review

These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.

CUMBERLAND ADVISORS’ WEEKLY RECAP

As part of Cumberland Advisors’ continuous effort to maintain strong customer relationships, we offer this week’s short video discussing current market conditions and how we are positioning portfolios.


 

Welcome back from Thanksgiving!

This week, we talk about:

-What might be coming up next week that could be a cause for concern
-What we see this week in the market that we liked, including
—Small Cap & Mid Cap continue their bid (they had been poor relative performers vs. S&P/Large Cap)
—Biotech in particular had a nice bid this week
-On the international scene, the August bottom in Europe looks like it’s holding
—Much of the negative rates we’ve seen have improved
-Asia may continue to win/lose, reacting to trade talks
-Pullbacks

Watch in the video player above or at this link: https://youtu.be/yVz47LfUHuw

Have a great weekend and thank you for joining us at Cumberland Advisors.

Matt enjoys your feedback. You can reach him at:
-Link to Matt’s Email: Matthew.McAleer@Cumber.com
-Link to Matt’s Twitter: https://twitter.com/MattMcAleer4
-Link to Matt’s LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matthew-c-mcaleer/
-Call Matt: (800) 257-7013

Or email us at info@cumber.com or give us a call at (800) 257-7013


FAANG stocks hit hard by U.S.-China trade war

Yahoo Finance Highlight: The trade war rages on

Yahoo Finance Highlight: The trade war rages on Nov 22, 2019

Watch the video from Yahoo Finance at this link: https://finance.yahoo.com/video/trade-war-rages-141444340.html

Yahoo Finance’s Adam Shapiro, Julie Hyman, Dan Roberts and Cumberland Advisors Chairman & CIO David Kotok discuss how the trade war has ruined relations between the U.S. and China and how [Continued…]


Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – UK Voters’ Dilemma: Johnson or Corbyn?

Author: William Witherell, Ph.D., Post Date: November 27, 2019

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary by William "Bill" Witherell, Ph.D.

On December 12th, UK voters will participate in a general election to determine the composition of the next government. The manifestos of both the Conservative Party and the Labor Party contain elements that should concern investors. Jeremy Corbyn’s hard-left Labor Party intends to convert the UK into a socialist economy through sweeping nationalizations (railways, broadband [Continued…] https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-uk-voters-dilemma-johnson-or-corbyn/


Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – NIRP, Lagarde, Trump, Dickens & Holidays

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: November 25, 2019

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - NIRP (David Kotok)

Negative-interest-rate policies (NIRP) have been criticized by some (me included) and pursued by others, including Europeans aligned with former European Central Bank (ECB) president Mario Draghi. However, growing numbers of Europeans are becoming disenchanted with NIRP, and some are now shifting away from it. In our view, negative rates have, predictably, damaged growth for over five years. The ECB’s new president, Christine Lagarde, seems to understand that she faces a daunting task in extricating ECB policy from reliance upon negative rates.

Here is an excerpt from her first speech:

“In my view, since our challenges are common ones, we must meet them with a common response. This involves moving towards a new European policy mix, which has a number of key elements. The first is monetary policy, which I start with because it is my area of responsibility and which will undergo a strategic review due to begin in the near future.”

Hat tip to Kevin Humphreys for the reference. Kevin is manager, European money markets, for BGC Partners. He is based in London. Kevin has kindly given us permission to share his observations with our readers. We completely agree with his view.

“Having had a few references of late from board members to potential side-effects of European Central Bank monetary policy, it was perhaps of little surprise that the ECB in their financial stability report should highlight that sub-zero interest rates have forced large investors to take on more risks and businesses to take on more debt. Equally unremarkable were the other two main observations, that bank profitability prospects have weakened and that mispriced assets may represent a vulnerability.

[Continued…] https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-nirp-lagarde-trump-dickens-holidays/


The MoneyShow Orlando 2020


John Mousseau at the Money Show Orlando

John R. Mousseau, CFA, will be joining a large gathering of members of Wall Street’s financial community in Orlando this winter season for The MoneyShow Orlando 2020. The three days of the conference will focus on new investment ideas that address the current economic and geopolitical environment and will feature tools, strategies, and advice which may help you better position your portfolio.

John will be a featured speaker, giving a review of the bond market in the past year (2019) and what we should expect from the bond market in a presidential election year.

To join John in February 2020 or learn more, please visit: https://conferences.moneyshow.com/moneyshow-orlando/


Bloomberg Surveillance: Negative Interest Rates with Kotok (Radio Podcast)

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: November 27, 2019

Cumberland Advisors’ David R. Kotok talks about negative interest rates, NIRP, and says the European Central Bank’s (ECB) Christine Lagarde has a difficult task right now.

Cumberland's David Kotok on Bloomberg Radio

He also discusses China, the pork shortage, and the impact of viruses on the global food supply.

Running time 25:02, David is introduced at the 10:45 mark – Play Episode:  https://www.bloomberg.com/news/audio/2019-11-27/surveillance-negative-interest-rates-with-kotok-podcast

Also see David’s Nov 25, 2019 commentary on NIRP: https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-nirp-lagarde-trump-dickens-holidays/


From Yahoo Finance

Charles Schwab is reportedly buying TD Ameritrade. “The hidden piece of this for investors is the yield on the money market fund, the yield on the sweep,” @CumberlandADV Chiarman David Kotok says. “And they tend not to look at it, and so there’s a widening margin.”


Negative interest rates aren’t working

Excerpt from ForexLive’s “Negative interest rates aren’t working”

Nov, 25 2019

Author: Adam Button

There haven’t been any victories in the negative-rate world.

The ultimate test of any theory is in the results.

The idea behind negative interest rates is that they will spur borrowing and economic activity, leading to inflation and a weaker currency.

It may be too soon to judge the results but the early returns are poor. Earlier this month the CME looked at the results of negative rates in four regions: the eurozone, Japan, Sweden and Switzerland. They all went negative between 2014 and 2016.

None of the four “have achieved their inflation targets as a result of negative deposit rates,” the CME writes.

Moreover, the negative-rate experiment so far has failed to stimulate growth sustainably. Early returns in Japan, the eurozone and Sweden were solid but GDP has slumped back close to zero.

David Kotok of Cumberland Advisors is out with a paper attacking negative rates.

The notional pricing of the trillions of dollars and euros in swaps and derivatives is thrown into disarray. As a result, the banks and market agents sponsoring those derivatives must raise their pricing to protect themselves from this added risk induced by NIRP. When they raise their pricing, they add to transactional costs and therefore suppress economic activity at the margin. That is a reason NIRP slows growth and raises risk.

Read the full article at ForexLive’s website: https://www.forexlive.com/news/!/negative-interest-rates-arent-working-20191125

 


In Case You Missed It…

Florida’s Red Tide: Possible causes, Who’s to blame?

Author: John R. Mousseau, CFA, Post Date: September 15, 2018

Jim Roemer (A.K.A. Dr. Weather) has been forecasting for the commodity and ski industry for over 30 years . He splits his time between Sarasota, Florida and Vermont, and has a deep passion and concern about the environment and climate. We found his work titled, “Florida’s Red Tide: Possible causes, Who’s to blame? Implications to humans and how it can be resolved,” to be interesting and of interest to our audience. With his permission and our thanks to Jim, we share it with you today. You can find out more about Jim Roemer at his website, https://www.bestweatherinc.com.

John R. Mousseau, CFA
President and CEO
Email | Bio

Florida’s Red Tide: Possible causes, Who’s to blame?


Florida’s Red Tide: Possible causes, Who’s to blame?
Implications to humans and how it can be resolved

As a steward of trying to bring more awareness to people about global warming and protecting our environment, seeing and smelling, the Red Tide Algae in Florida, is particularly bothersome.

THE FIRST THING you notice is the smell. It’s not a scent, exactly, but a tingling in the nose that quickly spreads to the throat and burns the lungs. But then you see the carcasses.

I moved to Florida 10 years ago to enjoy the Florida beaches, but have seen first hand how Red Tide has gotten worse over the years. In the past, hurricanes such as Katrina, Irma, etc. were thought to add to the problem, but actually, we need some sort of tropical weather system to churn up the waters. This would potentially mix up and move toxins, if only temporarily. It’s ironic to think about a hurricane actually benefiting Florida, after the many disasters the Sunshine State has witnessed over the years. However, a weak system could actually be beneficial to Florida.

RED TIDE–“It’s killing sea life, battering our economy and making people sick,” says a recent Florida TV ad. “Red tide continues to devastate our area. And many feel it’s fair to blame Rick Scott.” The blame assertion is lifted from an Orlando Sentinel editorial, which appears on screen.

[Continued…] https://www.cumber.com/floridas-red-tide-possible-causes-whos-to-blame/


Links to other websites or electronic media controlled or offered by Third-Parties (non-affiliates of Cumberland Advisors) are provided only as a reference and courtesy to our users. Cumberland Advisors has no control over such websites, does not recommend or endorse any opinions, ideas, products, information, or content of such sites, and makes no warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, reliability or suitability of their content. Cumberland Advisors hereby disclaims liability for any information, materials, products or services posted or offered at any of the Third-Party websites. The Third-Party may have a privacy and/or security policy different from that of Cumberland Advisors. Therefore, please refer to the specific privacy and security policies of the Third-Party when accessing their websites.

Sign up for our FREE Cumberland Market Commentaries

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.

Posted on: 11/30/2019 arrow Watch Video arrow
FAANG stocks hit hard by U.S.-China trade war

Yahoo Finance Highlight: The trade war rages on

Yahoo Finance Highlight: The trade war rages on

Nov 22, 2019

David Kotok on Yahoo Finance: Trade War Rages On [Video]

Watch the embedded video from Yahoo Finance below or at this link: https://finance.yahoo.com/video/trade-war-rages-141444340.html

Yahoo Finance’s Adam Shapiro, Julie Hyman, Dan Roberts and Cumberland Advisors Chairman & CIO David Kotok discuss how the trade war has ruined relations between the U.S. and China and how China’s purchasing of soybeans from Brazil puts pressure on the Amazon Rain Forrest.

 


Links to other websites or electronic media controlled or offered by Third-Parties (non-affiliates of Cumberland Advisors) are provided only as a reference and courtesy to our users. Cumberland Advisors has no control over such websites, does not recommend or endorse any opinions, ideas, products, information, or content of such sites, and makes no warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, reliability or suitability of their content. Cumberland Advisors hereby disclaims liability for any information, materials, products or services posted or offered at any of the Third-Party websites. The Third-Party may have a privacy and/or security policy different from that of Cumberland Advisors. Therefore, please refer to the specific privacy and security policies of the Third-Party when accessing their websites.

Sign up for our FREE Cumberland Market Commentaries

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.

Posted on: 11/27/2019 arrow Watch Video arrow
Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (Nov 18, 2019 - Nov 22, 2019)

Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (Nov 18, 2019 – Nov 22, 2019)

The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team.

Week In Review

These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.

CUMBERLAND ADVISORS’ WEEKLY RECAP

As part of Cumberland Advisors’ continuous effort to maintain strong customer relationships, we offer this week’s short video discussing current market conditions and how we are positioning portfolios.



We have Matt McAleer on camera this week to discuss our Quant work and indicators and the four Cumberland Advisors strategies that are involved with them. He talks about:

-Where our Quant Strategy started with Leo Chen Ph.D.
-What are “buy” signals in our Quant work?
-What are “sell” or “exit” signals in our Quant work?
-Matt outlines what sectors we’re in in response to our Quant work

Thanks for taking the time to join us!

Watch and comment online at: https://youtu.be/krnZG0DiKlU

Matt enjoys your feedback. You can reach him at:
-Link to Matt’s Email: Matthew.McAleer@Cumber.com
-Link to Matt’s Twitter: https://twitter.com/MattMcAleer4
-Link to Matt’s LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matthew-c-mcaleer/
-Call Matt: (800) 257-7013

Or email us at info@cumber.com or give us a call at (800) 257-7013


Cumberland Advisors in the Community

Spark-Growth-Sara-Hand-USF-Dr-Greg-Smogard-Cumberland-Advisors-Patricia-Healy-CFA
Patricia Healy, CFA (on the right) is pictured with Sara Hand of Spark Growth, TiE Tampa Bay Conference Program Chair, along with USF Sarasota-Manatee’s Dr. Greg Smogard, their innovation and business development officer.

Cumberland Advisors’ Patricia Healy, CFA and Norman Dempsey, MBA, attended the Indus Entrepreneurs (TiE) “Talk” in celebration of Global Entrepreneurship Week. The event was titled, “Funding Continuum and Landscape for Startups” and was held at the USF Sarasota-Manatee campus.

Patricia Healy (on the right) is pictured with Sara Hand of Spark Growth, TiE Tampa Bay Conference Program Chair, along with USF Sarasota-Manatee’s Dr. Greg Smogard, their innovation and business development officer.

Cumberland Advisors’ team members enjoy interacting within the communities in which we live, work and play whether it be chambers of commerce, museums, educational institutions, non-profits, or others. Watch for more collaboration with USF including Cumberland Advisors’ “Fourth Annual Financial Literacy Day: Understanding Global Markets and Finance” coming February 2020. We hope to see you around town!


Worried About a Bear Market? Bonds Pose More Danger Than Stocks.


Cumberland Advisors John MousseauBarron’s excerpt: Municipal Bonds could provide some protection against higher taxes should Elizabeth Warren become the next president. That’s the view of John R. Mousseau, president, CEO, and director of fixed income at Cumberland Advisors.

Read more: https://www.cumber.com/barrons-worried-about-a-bear-market-bonds-pose-more-danger-than-stocks/


Bloomberg Daybreak: Australia with David R. Kotok on Trade and China (Video)


Bloomberg Daybreak Australia - David Kotok talks Trade & China

David Kotok joins Bloomberg Daybreak: Australia to discuss the US-China trade relationship.

“Our view is, a full trade arrangement with China has eluded us; it’s gone. Businesses are now making decisions about location around the world. They’re changing what they’re doing. The United States is now collecting a sales tax on Americans, masquerading as a tariff. And the amount in the tariff is now paying approximately 1/4 of the interest bill on American borrowings and we have a rising deficit. And you hear the president say we’re collecting all this money. Well we are collecting it. Americans are paying it. And we see it in changes in prices. A washing machine costs 10 or 12 percent more than it did before the tariffs. So this is an unfolding story. I’m not sanguine about it and I believe markets are adjusting to the fact that this is a more permanent space. Which means pricing is different, location of businesses are different.”

Watch David’s full interview online at the Bloomberg website. He starts around the 12:30 minute mark: www.bloomberg.com


BondBuyer – Lower tuition rates may mean more downgrades in FY 2020


Cumberland-Advisors-Patricia-Healy-In-The-News

Excerpt from The Bond Buyer
By Sarah Wynn
Nov 18, 2019

Some analysts have decided to stick with highly rated bonds in the higher education sector.

“The higher education area, depending on if it’s public or private has seen some declines (in enrollment) over the years, especially in the private colleges,” said Patricia Healy, senior vice president of research and portfolio manager at Cumberland Advisors. Private universities have seen more downgrades than public universities, Healy later added.

Healy said Cumberland looks for double-A and higher single A-rated bonds because high-quality bonds tend to be more liquid and the firm tends to take a more active strategy.

Healy said her firm stopped investing in many private colleges years ago due to the continuing decline in enrollment. Healy said a decline in enrollment can be a reflection of a good economy because people are going directly into the workforce.

Continued:  https://www.cumber.com/bondbuyer-lower-tuition-rates-may-mean-more-downgrades-in-fy-2020/


Yahoo Finance Highlight: David Kotok discusses Macy’s, Target earnings & retail divide


CA-David-Kotok-Yahoo-Finance-Retail discussion

Watch the video at this link: https://www.cumber.com/yahoo-finance-highlight-david-kotok-discusses-macys-target-earnings-retail-divide/


The MoneyShow Orlando 2020


John Mousseau at the Money Show Orlando

John R. Mousseau, CFA, will be joining a large gathering of members of Wall Street’s financial community in Orlando this winter season for The MoneyShow Orlando 2020. The three days of the conference will focus on new investment ideas that address the current economic and geopolitical environment and will feature tools, strategies, and advice which may help you better position your portfolio.

John will be a featured speaker, giving a review of the bond market in the past year (2019) and what we should expect from the bond market in a presidential election year.

To join John in February 2020 or learn more, please visit: https://conferences.moneyshow.com/moneyshow-orlando/


Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Overshadowed?


Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: November 19, 2019
Federal Reserve - FOMC
Public attention this past week was riveted on the impeachment testimony before the House Intelligence Committee, which totally overshadowed Chairman Powell’s semiannual report and two days of testimony to Congress on monetary policy. That outcome is probably not a bad one, since there were no new insights provided nor any clues as to when or […]

Continued: https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-overshadowed/


Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – The Warren Hedge


Author: John R. Mousseau, CFA, Post Date: November 20, 2019

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - The Warren Hedge (John Mousseau)In the past few weeks Senator Elizabeth Warren has risen to be neck and neck with Joe Biden in most of the national polls for the Democratic nomination. In some of the electronic betting polls, though, Warren is ahead of Biden by 5–6 points, depending on the day. Warren has promised higher taxes, which would […]

Continued:  https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-the-warren-hedge/


Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Trade War and No Recession


Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: November 18, 2019

Stop Digging

The United States has gotten itself into a trade war negotiations mess. (See “How Trump’s Trade War Went From Method to Madness,” https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2019-11-14/how-trump-s-trade-war-went-from-method-to-madness.) There is an old adage: “When you’re in a hole and it’s getting deeper, stop digging!” Trump and Co. know they’re in a mess but don’t know how to stop digging, so they have […]

Continued: https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-trade-war-and-no-recession/


Links to other websites or electronic media controlled or offered by Third-Parties (non-affiliates of Cumberland Advisors) are provided only as a reference and courtesy to our users. Cumberland Advisors has no control over such websites, does not recommend or endorse any opinions, ideas, products, information, or content of such sites, and makes no warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, reliability or suitability of their content. Cumberland Advisors hereby disclaims liability for any information, materials, products or services posted or offered at any of the Third-Party websites. The Third-Party may have a privacy and/or security policy different from that of Cumberland Advisors. Therefore, please refer to the specific privacy and security policies of the Third-Party when accessing their websites.

Sign up for our FREE Cumberland Market Commentaries

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.

Posted on: 11/23/2019 arrow Watch Video arrow
Bloomberg Daybreak Australia - David Kotok talks Trade & China

Bloomberg Daybreak: Australia with David R. Kotok on Trade and China (Video)

Bloomberg Daybreak: Australia with David R. Kotok on Trade and China

Nov 20, 2019

Bloomberg Daybreak Australia - David Kotok talks Trade & China

David Kotok joins Bloomberg Daybreak: Australia to discuss the US-China trade relationship.

“Our view is, a full trade arrangement with China has eluded us; it’s gone. Businesses are now making decisions about location around the world. They’re changing what they’re doing. The United States is now collecting a sales tax on Americans, masquerading as a tariff. And the amount in the tariff is now paying approximately 1/4 of the interest bill on American borrowings and we have a rising deficit. And you hear the president say we’re collecting all this money. Well we are collecting it. Americans are paying it. And we see it in changes in prices. A washing machine costs 10 or 12 percent more than it did before the tariffs. So this is an unfolding story. I’m not sanguine about it and I believe markets are adjusting to the fact that this is a more permanent space. Which means pricing is different, location of businesses are different. And as that unfolds we go down first, we see it, and then there is the reallocation elsewhere.”

Watch online at the Bloomberg website. David starts around the 12:30 minute mark: www.bloomberg.com

 


Links to other websites or electronic media controlled or offered by Third-Parties (non-affiliates of Cumberland Advisors) are provided only as a reference and courtesy to our users. Cumberland Advisors has no control over such websites, does not recommend or endorse any opinions, ideas, products, information, or content of such sites, and makes no warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, reliability or suitability of their content. Cumberland Advisors hereby disclaims liability for any information, materials, products or services posted or offered at any of the Third-Party websites. The Third-Party may have a privacy and/or security policy different from that of Cumberland Advisors. Therefore, please refer to the specific privacy and security policies of the Third-Party when accessing their websites.

Sign up for our FREE Cumberland Market Commentaries

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.

Posted on: 11/21/2019 arrow Watch Video arrow
CA-David-Kotok-Yahoo-Finance-Retail discussion

Yahoo Finance Highlight: David Kotok discusses Macy’s, Target earnings & retail divide

Yahoo Finance Highlight: David Kotok discusses Macy’s, Target earnings & retail divide

 

CA-David-Kotok-Yahoo-Finance-Retail discussion

Watch the embedded video from Twitter & Yahoo Finance below.

 



 


Links to other websites or electronic media controlled or offered by Third-Parties (non-affiliates of Cumberland Advisors) are provided only as a reference and courtesy to our users. Cumberland Advisors has no control over such websites, does not recommend or endorse any opinions, ideas, products, information, or content of such sites, and makes no warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, reliability or suitability of their content. Cumberland Advisors hereby disclaims liability for any information, materials, products or services posted or offered at any of the Third-Party websites. The Third-Party may have a privacy and/or security policy different from that of Cumberland Advisors. Therefore, please refer to the specific privacy and security policies of the Third-Party when accessing their websites.

Sign up for our FREE Cumberland Market Commentaries

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.

Posted on: 11/21/2019 arrow Watch Video arrow
Cumberland-Advisors-Week-in-Review-November-15-2019- John Mousseau

Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (Nov 11, 2019 – Nov 15, 2019)

The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team.

Week In Review

These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.

CUMBERLAND ADVISORS’ WEEKLY RECAP

As part of Cumberland Advisors’ continuous effort to maintain strong customer relationships, we offer this week’s short video discussing current market conditions and how we are positioning portfolios.

 

 

We have John Mousseau at the helm this week and he talks about:
-Another good week for the markets
-What sectors performed well this week?
-And what doe this tell us?

Thanks for joining us, have a great weekend!
-Bond yields came down this week but are substantially above October lows
-What caused yields to come down? John details.
-An update of our Quantitative Strategies run by Dr. Chen
-Is caution in the market called for?
-How about interest rates?

Watch in the video player above or at this link: https://youtu.be/KTPfGmiDShI

Contact John Mousseau with any comments for him at: John.Mousseau@Cumber.com

Have a great weekend and thank you for joining John and Cumberland Advisors this week.

-Matt McAleer

Matt enjoys your feedback. You can reach him at:
-Link to Matt’s Email: Matthew.McAleer@Cumber.com
-Link to Matt’s Twitter: https://twitter.com/MattMcAleer4
-Link to Matt’s LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matthew-c-mcaleer/
-Call Matt: (800) 257-7013

 


Farmers & Credit Issues


Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: November 30, 2019

While Washington (politics and baseball) dominates the headlines, the American farmer continues to be bludgeoned by the Peter Navarro-designed and Donald Trump-approved trade war. The last two years have seen a significant erosion in US agricultural exports, and farmers have been badly hurt.

We have written many times about time lags in trade policy. It takes a year or more to get from tweeting threats to actual and measurable destructive outcomes. So here’s an update on outcomes of Navarro’s advice for the broad-based tariffs, which advice Trump followed. In doing so, Trump invited retaliatory tariffs on Agriculture and Aquaculture. Nearly every economist I’ve met advised against Navarro’s policy prescription. At this summer’s gathering in Maine, only 1 supported Navarro; 36 opposed; 3 were unsure.

The following report, detailing sharply rising farm bankruptcies, the impact on farmer’s income and more, is from the American Farm Bureau. It is loaded with information. When you read it, please ask yourself what soybeans (agriculture) or lobsters (aquaculture) have to do with intellectual property rights and 5G development.

Trump continues on a self-destructive path that is also taking down American farming. Notice the state-by-state details in the report and please muse on the potential Electoral College outcome in next year’s election. Please read the first three paragraphs if you’re short on time.

Now here’s the Farm Bureau: https://www.fb.org/market-intel/farm-bankruptcies-rise-again


Opportunities in Japan for Global Equity Investors


Author: Bill Witherell, Ph.D., Post Date: November 08, 2019

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Opportunities in Japan

The Bank of Japan at its October 30–31 Monetary Policy Committee meeting kept its policy unchanged while indicating it was willing to lower interest rates further into negative territory from their current low levels if needed to maintain progress towards the 2% inflation objective. The decision not to cut rates at this time was based on the Bank’s belief that the Japanese economy is strong enough to get through the current period of weak global demand. The economy has indeed encountered a “speed bump” that can be attributed to the rise in Japan’s sales tax from 8 to 10 percent on October 1, the major typhoon Hagibis, and the global slowdowns in trade and manufacturing. In addition, economic growth across the Asia region has been weakened by the US-China trade war.

According to the Jibun Bank Flash Japan Composite PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) reported by Markit, the Japanese economy slipped into contraction in October. Manufacturing new orders declined at the steepest pace in almost seven years, while “the service economy exhibited a remarkable degree of resilience.” The consumer sector has been one source of support for the economy as wage growth has been supported by labor shortages. Retail sales surged by over 9% in September in anticipation of the sales tax increase but appear to have fallen off in October. The labor shortages together with capacity constraints have also encouraged business investment.

Continued: https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-opportunities-in-japan-for-global-equity-investors/


Financial Literacy & Predatory Lending


Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: November 7, 2019

The Military Lending Act caps annual interest on loans to military members at 36% and offers other safeguards. Now, lawmakers are proposing to extend that protection to veterans and others. NPR reports: https://www.npr.org/2019/11/07/776769597/a-ban-on-high-cost-loans-may-be-coming

Financial Literacy & Predatory Lending

How do people wind up with “High-Cost Loans” in the first place? If a lack of financial literacy is the cause, there are resources available at various levels of understanding to educate and enlighten. If you know of anyone needing a primer on financial literacy, the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis offers an online course, “Paying & Receiving Interest” at this link: https://www.econlowdown.org/interest?p=yes

Ready for more advanced topics? Then join Cumberland Advisors for the 2020 event, “Financial Markets and the Economy – Fourth Annual Financial Literacy Day”, at the University of South Florida Sarasota-Manatee (USFSM) for a deep dive into the Bond Market where we’ll examine the categories of debt and the influences on them including budget deficits and larger issues like central bank QE and its impacts on interest rates for this debt before diving into Real Time Payments (RTP) where Bitcoin, Libra, Venmo and new versions of electronic money are having an increasing impact. We’ll cap off the day’s event with a Keynote Speech from Loretta Mester, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.

If you’re interested in learning more about financial markets and the economy, please join us on Friday, February 14, 2020 for our annual conference. Learn more or register here: https://www.interdependence.org/events/browse/fourth-annual-financial-literacy-day/


Camp Kotok Conversations


We invite you to visit our YouTube channel and explore the “Camp Kotok” video playlist. This playlist is comprised of Camp Kotok interviews with guests and “campers” who participate and enjoy sharing with us. We also include panel talks, scenes from the location in Maine, and other snippets we find interesting. Enjoy! #CampKotok

Camp Kotok - Big Lake - Stacked Stones - Conversations from Camp Kotok


What the FOMC Said


Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: November 1, 2019

Federal Reserve - FOMC

Following the FOMC’s announcement of its third consecutive rate cut after its meeting this week, speculation immediately broke out among market participants about whether additional cuts or even rate increases might be on the horizon going into 2020. However, such speculation is probably more noise than substance at this point, since the Committee’s statement was fairly clear and became even more so during Chairman Powell’s press conference. Most commentators noted the change in language from the previous statement to the current one:

“September: As the Committee contemplates the future path of the target range for the federal funds rate, it will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and will act as appropriate to sustain the expansion, with a strong labor market and inflation near its symmetric 2 percent objective.”

“October: The Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook as it assesses the appropriate path of the target range for the federal funds rate.”

But more important than the differences in the wording of the statements were several things that Chairman Powell made clear during his press conference.

Continued: https://www.cumber.com/what-the-fomc-said/


The Greater Sarasota Chamber of Commerce, along with nearly 500 business and community leaders, celebrated local small businesses by awarding five category winners and one Top Honor Small Business of the Year at the 29th Annual Frank G. Berlin Sr., Small Business Awards on June 14. Cumberland Advisors won in the “Professional Services Business of the Year” category. We’re proud to display our award and this plaque at the office. Thank you Sarasota!

Sarasota Chamber of Commerce Award Plaque
Professional Services Business of the Year

Links to other websites or electronic media controlled or offered by Third-Parties (non-affiliates of Cumberland Advisors) are provided only as a reference and courtesy to our users. Cumberland Advisors has no control over such websites, does not recommend or endorse any opinions, ideas, products, information, or content of such sites, and makes no warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, reliability or suitability of their content. Cumberland Advisors hereby disclaims liability for any information, materials, products or services posted or offered at any of the Third-Party websites. The Third-Party may have a privacy and/or security policy different from that of Cumberland Advisors. Therefore, please refer to the specific privacy and security policies of the Third-Party when accessing their websites.

Sign up for our FREE Cumberland Market Commentaries

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.

Posted on: 11/16/2019 arrow Watch Video arrow
Cumberland Advisors Weekly Video Update with Matt McAleer & John Mousseau

Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (Nov 04, 2019 – Nov 08, 2019)

The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team.

Week In Review

These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.

MATT MCALEER’S WEEKLY RECAP

As part of Cumberland Advisors’ continuous effort to maintain strong customer relationships, we offer this week’s short video discussing current market conditions and how we are positioning portfolios.

 

 

This week we talk about:
-The 10 & 30 year bonds – where they were and are now
-We like to look at the Utility Index – John explains
-We are playing “Defense” in Bonds
-John explains what it means for Cumberland to be defensive and our barbell strategy
-Different types of bonds have “life preservers” and John explains this
-Matt talks about the types of signals Cumberland Advisors pays attention to
-Leo Chen Ph.D.’s work is briefly discussed
-What are call buyers telling us?
-Is there too much optimism in the market?
-How about gold?

Watch in the video player above or at this link: https://youtu.be/b5zMJ62xwx4

Contact John Mousseau with any comments for him at: John.Mousseau@Cumber.com

Have a great weekend and thank you for joining me along with John.

-Matt McAleer

Matt enjoys your feedback. You can reach him at:
-Link to Matt’s Email: Matthew.McAleer@Cumber.com
-Link to Matt’s Twitter: https://twitter.com/MattMcAleer4
-Link to Matt’s LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matthew-c-mcaleer/
-Call Matt: (800) 257-7013

 


Farmers & Credit Issues


Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: November 30, 2019

While Washington (politics and baseball) dominates the headlines, the American farmer continues to be bludgeoned by the Peter Navarro-designed and Donald Trump-approved trade war. The last two years have seen a significant erosion in US agricultural exports, and farmers have been badly hurt.

We have written many times about time lags in trade policy. It takes a year or more to get from tweeting threats to actual and measurable destructive outcomes. So here’s an update on outcomes of Navarro’s advice for the broad-based tariffs, which advice Trump followed. In doing so, Trump invited retaliatory tariffs on Agriculture and Aquaculture. Nearly every economist I’ve met advised against Navarro’s policy prescription. At this summer’s gathering in Maine, only 1 supported Navarro; 36 opposed; 3 were unsure.

The following report, detailing sharply rising farm bankruptcies, the impact on farmer’s income and more, is from the American Farm Bureau. It is loaded with information. When you read it, please ask yourself what soybeans (agriculture) or lobsters (aquaculture) have to do with intellectual property rights and 5G development.

Trump continues on a self-destructive path that is also taking down American farming. Notice the state-by-state details in the report and please muse on the potential Electoral College outcome in next year’s election. Please read the first three paragraphs if you’re short on time.

Now here’s the Farm Bureau: https://www.fb.org/market-intel/farm-bankruptcies-rise-again


Opportunities in Japan for Global Equity Investors


Author: Bill Witherell, Ph.D., Post Date: November 08, 2019

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Opportunities in Japan

The Bank of Japan at its October 30–31 Monetary Policy Committee meeting kept its policy unchanged while indicating it was willing to lower interest rates further into negative territory from their current low levels if needed to maintain progress towards the 2% inflation objective. The decision not to cut rates at this time was based on the Bank’s belief that the Japanese economy is strong enough to get through the current period of weak global demand. The economy has indeed encountered a “speed bump” that can be attributed to the rise in Japan’s sales tax from 8 to 10 percent on October 1, the major typhoon Hagibis, and the global slowdowns in trade and manufacturing. In addition, economic growth across the Asia region has been weakened by the US-China trade war.

According to the Jibun Bank Flash Japan Composite PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) reported by Markit, the Japanese economy slipped into contraction in October. Manufacturing new orders declined at the steepest pace in almost seven years, while “the service economy exhibited a remarkable degree of resilience.” The consumer sector has been one source of support for the economy as wage growth has been supported by labor shortages. Retail sales surged by over 9% in September in anticipation of the sales tax increase but appear to have fallen off in October. The labor shortages together with capacity constraints have also encouraged business investment.

Continued: https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-opportunities-in-japan-for-global-equity-investors/


Financial Literacy & Predatory Lending


Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: November 7, 2019

The Military Lending Act caps annual interest on loans to military members at 36% and offers other safeguards. Now, lawmakers are proposing to extend that protection to veterans and others. NPR reports: https://www.npr.org/2019/11/07/776769597/a-ban-on-high-cost-loans-may-be-coming

Financial Literacy & Predatory Lending

How do people wind up with “High-Cost Loans” in the first place? If a lack of financial literacy is the cause, there are resources available at various levels of understanding to educate and enlighten. If you know of anyone needing a primer on financial literacy, the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis offers an online course, “Paying & Receiving Interest” at this link: https://www.econlowdown.org/interest?p=yes

Ready for more advanced topics? Then join Cumberland Advisors for the 2020 event, “Financial Markets and the Economy – Fourth Annual Financial Literacy Day”, at the University of South Florida Sarasota-Manatee (USFSM) for a deep dive into the Bond Market where we’ll examine the categories of debt and the influences on them including budget deficits and larger issues like central bank QE and its impacts on interest rates for this debt before diving into Real Time Payments (RTP) where Bitcoin, Libra, Venmo and new versions of electronic money are having an increasing impact. We’ll cap off the day’s event with a Keynote Speech from Loretta Mester, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.

If you’re interested in learning more about financial markets and the economy, please join us on Friday, February 14, 2020 for our annual conference. Learn more or register here: https://www.interdependence.org/events/browse/fourth-annual-financial-literacy-day/


Camp Kotok Conversations


We invite you to visit our YouTube channel and explore the “Camp Kotok” video playlist. This playlist is comprised of Camp Kotok interviews with guests and “campers” who participate and enjoy sharing with us. We also include panel talks, scenes from the location in Maine, and other snippets we find interesting. Enjoy! #CampKotok

Camp Kotok - Big Lake - Stacked Stones - Conversations from Camp Kotok


What the FOMC Said


Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: November 1, 2019

Federal Reserve - FOMC

Following the FOMC’s announcement of its third consecutive rate cut after its meeting this week, speculation immediately broke out among market participants about whether additional cuts or even rate increases might be on the horizon going into 2020. However, such speculation is probably more noise than substance at this point, since the Committee’s statement was fairly clear and became even more so during Chairman Powell’s press conference. Most commentators noted the change in language from the previous statement to the current one:

“September: As the Committee contemplates the future path of the target range for the federal funds rate, it will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and will act as appropriate to sustain the expansion, with a strong labor market and inflation near its symmetric 2 percent objective.”

“October: The Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook as it assesses the appropriate path of the target range for the federal funds rate.”

But more important than the differences in the wording of the statements were several things that Chairman Powell made clear during his press conference.

Continued: https://www.cumber.com/what-the-fomc-said/


The Greater Sarasota Chamber of Commerce, along with nearly 500 business and community leaders, celebrated local small businesses by awarding five category winners and one Top Honor Small Business of the Year at the 29th Annual Frank G. Berlin Sr., Small Business Awards on June 14. Cumberland Advisors won in the “Professional Services Business of the Year” category. We’re proud to display our award and this plaque at the office. Thank you Sarasota!

Sarasota Chamber of Commerce Award Plaque
Professional Services Business of the Year

Links to other websites or electronic media controlled or offered by Third-Parties (non-affiliates of Cumberland Advisors) are provided only as a reference and courtesy to our users. Cumberland Advisors has no control over such websites, does not recommend or endorse any opinions, ideas, products, information, or content of such sites, and makes no warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, reliability or suitability of their content. Cumberland Advisors hereby disclaims liability for any information, materials, products or services posted or offered at any of the Third-Party websites. The Third-Party may have a privacy and/or security policy different from that of Cumberland Advisors. Therefore, please refer to the specific privacy and security policies of the Third-Party when accessing their websites.

Sign up for our FREE Cumberland Market Commentaries

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.

Posted on: 11/09/2019 arrow Watch Video arrow
Cumberland Advisors John Mousseau Update

Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (Oct 28, 2019 – Nov 01, 2019)

The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team.

Week In Review

These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.

MATT MCALEER’S WEEKLY RECAP

As part of Cumberland Advisors’ continuous effort to maintain strong customer relationships, we offer this week’s short video discussing current market conditions and how we are positioning portfolios.

 

 

John Mousseau is in for Matt this week.

– We had a good trick-or-treat surprise today in the markets: we saw a great employment number
the non-farm payroll was up 128,000 when we were expecting 85,000 in new jobs
– Concerns about trade and tariffs are fading a bit, like the saying, “objects in (the) mirror are closer than they appear” but in the reverse; trade issues are not as close as they appear
– In Bonds, yields were down this week but back up a few bps today
– Munis? Down just a couple of bps this week
– We’re starting to see to with rates a pattern of two-steps-forward, one-step-back in terms of advancing since the summer lows of August
– We think this is particularly important for Munis where municipalities are coming to market for the simple reason that interest rates are very low and they’re locking in today’s low yields
– The Fed cut its rate this week and noted they are not committing to any more rate cuts which in their mind, they are accommodating the market
– This could shift the balance of the yield curve
– This will benefit banks and financial institutions
– With better financial health, we think that’s better for the overall equity markets as well

Watch in the video player above or at this link: https://youtu.be/-kbdjMzp76g

Want to contact John directly? Email him at: John.Mousseau@Cumber.com

Have a great weekend and thank you for joining John in my absence!

-Matt McAleer

Matt enjoys your feedback. You can reach him at:
-Link to Matt’s Email: Matthew.McAleer@Cumber.com
-Link to Matt’s Twitter: https://twitter.com/MattMcAleer4
-Link to Matt’s LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matthew-c-mcaleer/


Markets & The Deficit


Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: October 30, 2019

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Markets & The Deficit

The latest federal deficit numbers show the Trump budget implementation running about $1 trillion annualized. Here’s the link to a PDF that contains details and projections by the Congressional Budget Office: https://www.cbo.gov/system/files?file=2019-01/54918-Outlook-AppendixC.pdf.US stock and bond markets greeted this news with a yawn. Market agents are more focused on other things. Meanwhile, deficit warnings, intertwined with political scenarios, are thoughtful and eloquent yet remain largely ignored. Here’s a sample from the National Review, sent out by the American Enterprise Institute: https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/what-deficit/.And please remember the present trillion-dollar annual deficit of 5% of GDP is projected to continue for the next decade. And it is happening when the economy is in the longest recovery cycle in modern times.

Continued: https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-markets-the-deficit/


Taxing Wealth Series


Author: Cumberland Advisors, Post Date: October 27, 2019

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Wealth Taxation Series

Cumberland Advisors has produced a number of market commentaries around the core theme of income, wealth inequality, and wealth taxation. In them you’ll find related data and implications of wealth tax proposals and their probable effect on markets, individuals, entrepreneurs, and businesses. Here are links to those recent writings in what forms a series of wealth tax pieces:

Wealth Tax,” David Kotok, October 9, 2019
https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-wealth-tax/

Taxing Wealth Instead of Income?” Bob Eisenbeis, February 13, 2019
https://www.cumber.com/taxing-wealth-instead-of-income/

Taxing Wealth Instead of Income, Part 2,” Bob Eisenbeis, October 15, 2019
https://www.cumber.com/taxing-wealth-instead-of-income-2/

The Kiplinger Tax Map: Guide to State Income Taxes, State Sales Taxes, Gas Taxes, Sin Taxes,” David Kotok, October 25, 2019
https:/www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-the-kiplinger-tax-map-guide-to-state-income-taxes-state-sales-taxes-gas-taxes-sin-taxes/


Meet Regional Director of Investments, Todd Engelhardt


Todd Engelhardt - Regional Director of Investments for southwest Florida
Todd Engelhardt serves as Regional Director of Investments for Southwest Florida. He is responsible for Cumberland Advisors’ service to individuals, institutions, retirement plans, and government entities. Todd speaks at investment conferences and other events explaining Cumberland’s investment philosophy and portfolio options to individuals, financial advisors and institutional clients.

Prior to Cumberland, Todd held senior positions in distribution and marketing with FleetBoston, Manning & Napier Advisors, and Fifth Third. While at Fleet, Todd was responsible for developing the institutional asset management business for over a decade. He served as National Sales Director in Fleet’s Columbia Management Group subsidiary, with responsibility for Endowment and Foundation business development. Todd also assisted in Columbia’s integration of Boston-based Liberty Asset Management, as well as a host of smaller bank investment unit acquisitions. He began his career with the management information systems consulting practice of Arthur Andersen & Co. in New York City where he worked with financial services clients.

Todd received an MBA from Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute in 1984. He has over 30 years of investment management experience.

Drop Todd a line or give him a call, he’d love to meet you: Todd.Engelhardt@Cumber.com

Send an email to Todd.Engelhardt@Cumber.com Contact-Cumberland-Advisors 800.257.7013 x371 800.257.7013 x371


Think the Fed Will Be Pat for a While, Says Cumberland’s Eisenbeis




WATCH HERE (or click the embedded player above): https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2019-10-31/think-the-fed-will-be-pat-for-a-while-sys-cumberland-s-eisenbeis-video


Fire and Water


Author: Patricia Healy, Post Date: November 1, 2019

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - California - A Note on the FiresThe fires engulfing parts of California are feared to become the nation’s worst fire disaster, possibly surpassing 2017 and 2018 fire events. Spurred on by wind gusts of up to 80 mph, this disaster harkens back to Superstorm Sandy, which occurred seven years ago, in October 2012.

Superstorm Sandy soaked the Northeast, and its 80-mph winds caused almost $70 billion in damages per Wikipedia. It was one of the most costly natural disasters ever to hit the United States. The extent of the damage was also a function of the storm’s hitting many densely populated areas that were centers of economic activity. No one yet knows, and it will likely take some time to determine the full cost of the 2019 fires in terms of damages to homes and businesses, lives lost, and the cost of the herculean response by CalFire, municipal fire departments, and others. It is only October, while the deadly Camp fire of 2018 occurred in November, and dry conditions continue to persist. The fires this year, like Superstorm Sandy, have occurred in or near some densely populated areas with high real estate values, many businesses, and intense economic activity.

Continued: https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-fire-and-water/


Camp Kotok Conversations


Camp Kotok alum Ann Berry, Partner, Cornell Capital, joined Rishaad Salamat and Bryan Curtis on Bloomberg’s Daybreak Asia. She says there’s more focus on fundamental business performance this earnings season. She goes on to how discussions on trade have changed. You can listen to her October 24, 2019 interview here:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/audio/2019-10-24/messages-on-trade-in-last-couple-of-weeks-calmer-radio

Ann Berry Interview on Bloomberg

We invite you to visit our YouTube channel and explore the “Camp Kotok” video playlist. This playlist is comprised of Camp Kotok interviews with guests and “campers” who participate and enjoy sharing with us. We also include panel talks, scenes from the location in Maine, and other snippets we find interesting. Enjoy! #CampKotok

Camp Kotok - Big Lake - Stacked Stones - Conversations from Camp Kotok


What the FOMC Said


Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: November 1, 2019

Federal Reserve - FOMC

Following the FOMC’s announcement of its third consecutive rate cut after its meeting this week, speculation immediately broke out among market participants about whether additional cuts or even rate increases might be on the horizon going into 2020. However, such speculation is probably more noise than substance at this point, since the Committee’s statement was fairly clear and became even more so during Chairman Powell’s press conference. Most commentators noted the change in language from the previous statement to the current one:

“September: As the Committee contemplates the future path of the target range for the federal funds rate, it will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and will act as appropriate to sustain the expansion, with a strong labor market and inflation near its symmetric 2 percent objective.”

“October: The Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook as it assesses the appropriate path of the target range for the federal funds rate.”

But more important than the differences in the wording of the statements were several things that Chairman Powell made clear during his press conference.

Continued: https://www.cumber.com/what-the-fomc-said/


Links to other websites or electronic media controlled or offered by Third-Parties (non-affiliates of Cumberland Advisors) are provided only as a reference and courtesy to our users. Cumberland Advisors has no control over such websites, does not recommend or endorse any opinions, ideas, products, information, or content of such sites, and makes no warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, reliability or suitability of their content. Cumberland Advisors hereby disclaims liability for any information, materials, products or services posted or offered at any of the Third-Party websites. The Third-Party may have a privacy and/or security policy different from that of Cumberland Advisors. Therefore, please refer to the specific privacy and security policies of the Third-Party when accessing their websites.

Sign up for our FREE Cumberland Market Commentaries

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.

Posted on: 11/02/2019 arrow Watch Video arrow
Bloomberg TV - Think the Fed Will Be Pat for a While, Says Cumberland’s Eisenbeis

Bloomberg TV – Think the Fed Will Be Pat for a While, Says Cumberland’s Eisenbeis



 

WATCH HERE (or click the embedded player above): https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2019-10-31/think-the-fed-will-be-pat-for-a-while-sys-cumberland-s-eisenbeis-video


Another podcast you may enjoy is the June 22, 2018 Bloomberg Daybreak interview with  David Kotok, Chairman and Chief Investment Officer at Cumberland Advisors. He discusses the Dow’s eight day drop and possible trade war with China. He also discussed bonds and treasuries with Bloomberg.

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If you like podcasts, check out this one from 2015 featuring David Kotok talking about his background and Camp Kotok with Barry Ritholtz. They also talk about the history of Cumberland Advisors since its founding, and delve into fundamental principles of investing and valuation.


Links here
https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/masters-in-business/id730188152?mt=2

And here
http://www.bloomberg.com/podcasts/masters-in-business/

Posted on: 10/30/2019 arrow Watch Video arrow
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