Tag Archives: Bonds

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The Fed Is Guessing As it Plays With Fire: David Kotok (Radio)

Author: , Post Date: January 29, 2019
Cumberland's David Kotok on Bloomberg Radio

David Kotok, Chairman & Chief Investment Officer of Cumberland Advisors, on what to expect from the FOMC, balance sheet, and the outlook for bonds and markets. Hosted by Abramowicz and Paul Sweeney. Running time 12:42   LISTEN HERE: Bloomberg Radio NOTE: Links to other websites or electronic media controlled or offered by Third-Parties (non-affiliates of […]

Buyer Beware

Author: Shaun Burgess, Post Date: January 17, 2019
Cumberland Advisors - Shaun Burgess - Portfolio Manager & Fixed Income Analyst

In a move that caught many observers by surprise, the Federal Oversight and Management Board (FOMB), which was created to oversee the restructuring of the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico, has requested that Judge Swain invalidate more than $6 billion of the territory’s debt. The move would affect uninsured general-obligation bonds issued in 2012 and after. […]

Q4 2018 Credit Commentary and a Look Ahead to 2019

Author: Patricia Healy, CFA, Post Date: January 8, 2019
Cumberland Advisors - Q4 2018 Credit Commentary and a Look Ahead to 2019

Has The Municipal Credit Cycle Plateaued? Many positive indicators suggest that the municipal credit cycle has yet to plateau. Upgrades continue to outpace downgrades; the US economy is still growing; federal tax reform boosted revenues in fiscal 2018; and rainy day funds or reserve levels in many localities are strong. However, pressures continue to confront […]

4Q2018 Review: Puerto Rico Insured Bond

Author: Shaun Burgess, Post Date: January 3, 2019
Cumberland Advisors - Shaun Burgess - Portfolio Manager & Fixed Income Analyst

It has been a busy quarter for the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico. Milestones included a conclusion to the Title VI restructuring of the Government Development Bank (GDB) and a plan for the restructuring of the Puerto Rico Sales Tax Financing Corporation’s (COFINA), as well as the continued rebuilding from the damages wrought by Hurricane Maria […]

Total Return Taxable Fixed Income: 4Q 2018 Review

Author: Daniel Himelberger, Post Date: January 2, 2019
Cumberland Advisors - Dan Himelberger - Portfolio Manager & Fixed Income Analyst

After a poor start to the quarter, the Treasury market rebounded nicely over the month of December, providing positive performance across the Treasury curve as the equity market suffered from negative sentiment pertaining to geopolitical risk and concerns over the Fed’s path towards raising short-term interest rates. Political bickering over building “the wall” and threats […]

Is the Municipal Bond Market Sleepy?! Pension Doomsday?

Author: Patricia Healy, CFA, Post Date: November 19, 2018
Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Is the Municipal Bond Market Sleepy - Pension Doomsday

Today’s municipal bond market is anything but “sleepy,” as Spencer Jakab characterized it in his Wall Street Journal article “Prophet of Muni Market Doom Wasn’t Wrong, Just Early” (10/26/2018). The Prophet of Doom he referred to was Meredith Whitney, who shortly before the financial crisis successfully predicted the damage to Citibank by bad mortgages. In […]

California, Land of Natural Disasters?

Author: Patricia Healy, CFA, Post Date: November 13, 2018
Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - California, Land of Natural Disasters

Last week we conducted a review of our California municipal bond holdings along the San Andreas Fault looking for holdings that may be more susceptible to credit deterioration in the event of a disaster. At the time, little did we know that wildfires would engulf large swaths of California. First, our hearts and prayers go […]

MOUSSEAU: The Cumberland World Series Theory of the Bond

Author: , Post Date: October 26, 2018
Cumberland Advisors John Mousseau

Most investors have heard of the “Super Bowl Theory of the Dow.” This theory, first proposed by sportswriter Leonard Koppett in the 1970s, according to Wikipedia, posited that when a team from the “old” NFL (the current NFC, plus the Colts, Browns and Steelers, who joined the AFC in 1970) won the Super Bowl, the […]

Hurricane Michael and Bond Portfolio Management

Author: Patricia Healy, CFA, Post Date: October 17, 2018
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary

The devastation from Michael in terms of lives and property damage is still being assessed. Our hearts go out to those affected. We have written (http://www.cumber.com/wildfires-abound/) about the general uptick in economic activity in a municipality after a storm or other natural disaster and the resulting maintenance of credit ratings. However, there could be a period […]