Tag Archives: China

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Trump Trade War, Soybeans, Danielle DiMartino Booth, Bill Poole

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: July 10, 2018
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary by David Kotok

Former St. Louis Fed President Bill Poole who also was an economic adviser to Ronald Reagan has written about Trump-Trade policy and published this profoundly instructive commentary on July 2. He reveals the money conflict of interests that lurk behind some of the tariffs and he proposes a simple solution.  Here is the link: The […]

Dow dives as trade war angst boosts investor anxiety over growth, earnings

Author: , Post Date: June 26, 2018
Cumberland-Advisors-David-Kotok-In-The-News

Confusion over the administration’s China trade policy related to technology caused a sell-off that pushed the Dow Jones industrial average down nearly 500 points before it recovered and finished down 328 points, or 1.3 percent, at 24,253. Wall Street fears that economic growth is slowing around the globe as a result of the trade friction. […]

Dollar May Have Not Peaked Yet, Cumberland Advisors CIO Says

Author: , Post Date: June 24, 2018
Bloomberg - David Kotok - Dollar May Have Not Peaked Yet

Dollar May Have Not Peaked Yet, Cumberland Advisors CIO Says Bloomberg Daybreak: Australia June 24th, 2018, 7:25 PM EDT  David Kotok, chairman and chief investment officer at Cumberland Advisors Inc., shares his views on emerging markets, the trade disputes and the dollar. He speaks with Haidi Lun and Yvonne Man on “Bloomberg Daybreak: Australia.” (Source: […]

Kim, Trump, Thucydides

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: May 24, 2018
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary by David Kotok

Trump’s cancellation of the Kim summit meeting clearly draws lines in the sand. Trump’s position cannot now be reversed for a longer period of time than was contemplated just hours ago. We now have an unpredictable escalation path. Kim’s behavior in destroying tunnels, underground mountain rail lines, and other parts of his nuclear test site […]

Thucydides–Part 3

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: May 15, 2018

In book five of The History of the Peloponnesian War, Thucydides describes how the Athenians sustained surprisingly large losses in battle and how the Spartans prevailed. He also describes what each side didn’t know about the condition of the other side. Problems arise when decisions are based on incomplete information. Athens didn’t know of the […]

Thucydides–Part 2

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: May 2, 2018

Many thanks to readers for comments about our “Thucydides – Part 1.” For those who missed it the link is http://www.cumber.com/thucydides-part-1/. In this part 2 we must first offer an apology to Professor Graham Allison. An astute reader caught a typo on a third occurrence of his first name, deep in the text of part […]

Thucydides–Part 1

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: April 28, 2018
Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Thucydides Trap

“Let China sleep; when she wakes, she will shake the world.” – Napoleon, 1817 (citation source: Graham Allison) “We really don’t think it was tariffs – those have been in the public domain for days. Rather, we believe the market has a very unhealthy dynamic at the moment. Washington policy is critical to the market […]

Marcus Island

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: April 23, 2018
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary by David Kotok

An isolated Pacific island barely big enough to accommodate an airstrip has gained global importance (see photo: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Marcus_Island_DF-ST-87-08298.JPEG). Some 787 miles east of South Iwo Jima, Marcus Island, or as the Japanese call it, Minami-Tori-shima, meaning “Southern Bird Island,” is the southernmost island under Japanese governance and within the Japanese economic security zone. In its history […]