Tag Archives: Federal Reserve

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Fed & Rates

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: July 3, 2018
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary by David Kotok

My colleague Bob Eisenbeis recently described the improved communications from the Fed and offered his current thoughts on Fed policy. His post-Fed-meeting notes are here: http://www.cumber.com/the-fed-decides/. Today we want to take a longer view of interest rates and offer some observations on what lies ahead. I write this after the FOMC June meeting and after […]

FOMC Minutes – May 2018

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: May 25, 2018
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary by Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D.

The FOMC minutes are designed to provide a concise summary of the presentations and discussions that take place at FOMC meetings and the context behind the terse press release provided at the end of each meeting. Presumably, this communication device is meant to provide added color and a sense of where policy may be going. […]

Fed, Fishing, Labor Data

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: May 8, 2018
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary by David Kotok

We thank readers for comments on our Sunday morning piece about the Fed and the risk of policy mistakes. For those who missed it, the link is here: http://www.cumber.com/fed-employment-mistake-or-correct-munis/. For those who missed my colleague Bob Eisenbeis’s piece on Fed policy, here’s the link: http://www.cumber.com/may-fomc-decision/. Bob raised a technical question internally, which we will share […]

Fed, Employment, Mistake or Correct? Munis?

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: May 6, 2018
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary by David Kotok

Albert Einstein was, it turns out, apparently not the person who defined insanity as “doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result” (see https://quoteinvestigator.com/2017/03/23/same/); but it’s a good definition just the same. The definition certainly applies in economics and financial markets when we apply regression analysis to data on the assumption […]

Powell to Ponder Hawkish Tone in FOMC Debut: Decision Day Guide

Author: , Post Date: March 21, 2018

Excerpt below: The FOMC in December estimated 2.5 percent economic growth this year, though that was prior to passage of the $300 billion spending package. Powell told Congress this month the economy was “strong” and tax cuts would add “meaningfully to growth.” In the FOMC statement, the committee could be conflicted about what to say […]

A First Look

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: March 3, 2018
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary by Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D.

As a part of his first semiannual monetary policy report to Congress, Chairman Powell made an appearance this week before both the House Financial Services Committee and Senate Banking Committee to discuss monetary policy and the state of the economy. How did he do? First, his statement was short and sweet, hitting just the high […]

Piggy Bank

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: February 13, 2018
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary by Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D.

One of the characteristics of a struggling republic is the inability to separate its central bank’s resources from the fiscal largesse of the federal government. Using central bank resources to avoid addressing funding of the government is a sure path to runaway inflation, economic decline, and periodic financial crisis. Take the example of Argentina, whose […]