In early September 2019 there was an unusual spike in rates in the repurchase (“repo”) market causing a liquidity squeeze on broker-dealers that use repos to finance their portfolios of Treasury and agency securities. It remains a mystery as to what catalyzed the liquidity squeeze. The response by the Federal Reserve Bank and market participants […]
The week of September 16 saw the Federal Reserve Bank of New York inject funds into the repo market in response to an unusual spike in rates that was above the initial target range for the federal funds rate of 2.0–2.25%. (The target rate was lowered to 1.75–2.00% after the close of the FOMC’s meeting […]
The FOMC decided to throw a pass by cutting rates; but given the market’s response, it looks like they were tackled for a loss. In Woody Hayes’ parlance, the one positive of a forward pass turned into a negative. Powell attempted to offer three justifications for the policy move: to insure against downside risks, to […]
We Are Not Clear About a Future Fed Path, Says Cumberland Advisors’s Kotok July 31, 2019 David Kotok, chairman and chief investment officer at Cumberland Advisors, discusses the Fed decision and the way forward for markets. He speaks on “Bloomberg Daybreak: Asia.” Watch at Bloomberg TV or in the embedded player below.
In our previous discussion of the three options facing the FOMC – raise the funds-rate target, hold the rate steady, or cut the target rate – we argued that there were risks and potentially negative consequences associated with each. The first option would shock markets and raise questions about the Committee’s rationale, regardless of what […]
Ohio State’s Woody Hayes used to say that his problem with the forward pass was that “Three things can happen, and two of them are bad.” Well, after Chairman Powell’s testimony last week, the FOMC may find itself in a similar position, only maybe worse. The Committee can do three things – lower rates, keep […]
In the commentary leading up to the June meeting, I argued that some relaxation of the tariff issues with Mexico, combined with relatively good data for the US economy, would make the FOMC’s decision to hold pat on rates relatively easier. While the FOMC did decide at its June meeting to hold rates constant for […]
UBS Sees No Fed Rate Cut Until at Least 2021 June 18, 2019 David Kotok, Cumberland Advisors Chairman and CIO, and Laura Kane, UBS head of Americas investing themes, discuss their outlook for the Fed. They appear on “Bloomberg Daybreak: Americas.” Watch at Bloomberg TV or in the embedded player below.
In advance of the release of the FOMC’s May minutes, speculation in the press and by financial market participants was that the Committee might cut the federal funds target rate. The main line of conjecture centered on how long the FOMC could continue to miss its inflation target on the downside before a rate cut […]
For a history of the Fed Board of Governors and its changes over the past century, see https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/bios/board/boardmembership.htm . Right now we have five of seven governors’ seats filled. One of those seats is held by Lael Brainard, and she is in a holdover capacity. She was appointed by President Obama in 2014. In a perfect […]