Tag Archives: FOMC


May FOMC Minutes: Patience

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: May 28, 2019
Federal Reserve - FOMC

In advance of the release of the FOMC’s May minutes, speculation in the press and by financial market participants was that the Committee might cut the federal funds target rate. The main line of conjecture centered on how long the FOMC could continue to miss its inflation target on the downside before a rate cut […]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary –  White House Considers Economist Judy Shelton for Fed Board

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: May 13, 2019
Federal Reserve Building

For a history of the Fed Board of Governors and its changes over the past century, see https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/bios/board/boardmembership.htm . Right now we have five of seven governors’ seats filled. One of those seats is held by Lael Brainard, and she is in a holdover capacity. She was appointed by President Obama in 2014. In a perfect […]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Hope Is Not a Strategy

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: May 7, 2019
Federal Reserve - FOMC

On Wednesday, the FOMC left its policy stance unchanged. This decision was consistent with the message sent after the previous meeting and was not contradicted by speeches given by FOMC participants in the intermeeting period. This action was also consistent with the consensus view of economists who follow the Fed. Indeed, of the 39 economists […]

Fed Appointees

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: May 1, 2019
Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Fed Appointees

“If the Fed had done its job properly, which it has not, the Stock Market would have been up 5000 to 10,000 additional points, and GDP would have been well over 4% instead of 3%…with almost no inflation. Quantitative tightening was a killer, should have done the exact opposite!” – President Donald Trump, April 14, […]

The FOMC, March 2019

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: March 27, 2019
Federal Reserve - FOMC

To no one’s surprise, the FOMC left its policy rate unchanged. This decision was widely telegraphed in advance. What was a surprise to many – but should not have been – was the mark-down in prospective rate changes to zero in 2019 and only one in 2020. Pundits puzzled over what had changed since the […]

The January 2019 Fed Minutes

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: February 22, 2019
Federal Reserve - FOMC

Attention has turned to what extra gems of information might be contained in the release of the FOMC’s January 2019 minutes about the future path of policy. Comments have focused on the Fed’s balance sheet, the consequences of its runoff for financial markets, and what the Fed’s policies might be going forward in terms of […]

The Fed Is Guessing As it Plays With Fire: David Kotok (Radio)

Author: , Post Date: January 29, 2019
Cumberland's David Kotok on Bloomberg Radio

David Kotok, Chairman & Chief Investment Officer of Cumberland Advisors, on what to expect from the FOMC, balance sheet, and the outlook for bonds and markets. Hosted by Abramowicz and Paul Sweeney. Running time 12:42   LISTEN HERE: Bloomberg Radio NOTE: Links to other websites or electronic media controlled or offered by Third-Parties (non-affiliates of […]

Can the President Fire the Chairman of the Federal Reserve?

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: January 10, 2019
Cumberland Advisors' Bob Eisenbeis

The question has arisen, does the president have the ability to fire the chairman of the Federal Reserve. The short answer appears to be no. But few understand the structure of the Federal Reserve and how, by design, that structure both compartmentalizes and is designed to insulate policy making from attempts by outsiders to influence […]