Tag Archives: FOMC

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Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Overshadowed?

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: November 19, 2019
Federal Reserve - FOMC

Public attention this past week was riveted on the impeachment testimony before the House Intelligence Committee, which totally overshadowed Chairman Powell’s semiannual report and two days of testimony to Congress on monetary policy. That outcome is probably not a bad one, since there were no new insights provided nor any clues as to when or […]

What the FOMC Said

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: November 1, 2019
Cumberland Advisors' Robert "Bob" Eisenbeis, Ph.D.

Following the FOMC’s announcement of its third consecutive rate cut after its meeting this week, speculation immediately broke out among market participants about whether additional cuts or even rate increases might be on the horizon going into 2020. However, such speculation is probably more noise than substance at this point, since the Committee’s statement was […]

Bloomberg TV – Think the Fed Will Be Pat for a While, Says Cumberland’s Eisenbeis

Author: , Post Date: October 30, 2019
Bloomberg TV - Think the Fed Will Be Pat for a While, Says Cumberland’s Eisenbeis

Bloomberg TV – Daybreak Asia October 30, 2019 Robert Eisenbeis, vice chairman and chief monetary economist at Cumberland Advisors, discusses the potential for another Fed rate cut in December and beyond and his thoughts on communication from the central bank. He speaks on “Bloomberg Daybreak: Asia.” (Source: Bloomberg)   WATCH HERE (or click the embedded […]

Repo Market, Monetary Policy, & Liquidity Discussion – An On-Demand Webinar

Author: Cumberland Advisors, Post Date: October 5, 2019
On-Demand Webinar - How does the Repo Market, Monetary Policy, & a Liquidity crunch affect Financial Markets

In early September 2019 there was an unusual spike in rates in the repurchase (“repo”) market causing a liquidity squeeze on broker-dealers that use repos to finance their portfolios of Treasury and agency securities.  It remains a mystery as to what catalyzed the liquidity squeeze.  The response by the Federal Reserve Bank and market participants […]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Repos and Reverse Repos

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: September 27, 2019
Cumberland Advisors' Robert "Bob" Eisenbeis, Ph.D.

The week of September 16 saw the Federal Reserve Bank of New York inject funds into the repo market in response to an unusual spike in rates that was above the initial target range for the federal funds rate of 2.0–2.25%. (The target rate was lowered to 1.75–2.00% after the close of the FOMC’s meeting […]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – To Pass or Not to Pass (Part 3)

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: August 1, 2019
Market Commentary - Robert-Eisenbeis - To Pass or Not to Pass (Part 3)

The FOMC decided to throw a pass by cutting rates; but given the market’s response, it looks like they were tackled for a loss. In Woody Hayes’ parlance, the one positive of a forward pass turned into a negative. Powell attempted to offer three justifications for the policy move: to insure against downside risks, to […]

We Are Not Clear About a Future Fed Path, Says Cumberland Advisors’s Kotok

Author: , Post Date: July 31, 2019
Cumberland Advisors's David Kotok - Future Fed Path Is Not Clear – Bloomberg TV

We Are Not Clear About a Future Fed Path, Says Cumberland Advisors’s Kotok July 31, 2019 David Kotok, chairman and chief investment officer at Cumberland Advisors, discusses the Fed decision and the way forward for markets. He speaks on “Bloomberg Daybreak: Asia.” Watch at Bloomberg TV or in the embedded player below.

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – To Pass or Not to Pass? (Part 2)

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: July 30, 2019
Federal Reserve - FOMC - Uncertainty, Risk, & Three Options

In our previous discussion of the three options facing the FOMC – raise the funds-rate target, hold the rate steady, or cut the target rate – we argued that there were risks and potentially negative consequences associated with each. The first option would shock markets and raise questions about the Committee’s rationale, regardless of what […]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – To Pass or Not to Pass? (Part 1)

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: July 15, 2019
Federal Reserve - FOMC - Uncertainty, Risk, & Three Options

Ohio State’s Woody Hayes used to say that his problem with the forward pass was that “Three things can happen, and two of them are bad.” Well, after Chairman Powell’s testimony last week, the FOMC may find itself in a similar position, only maybe worse. The Committee can do three things – lower rates, keep […]

The June FOMC

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: June 24, 2019
Federal Reserve - FOMC

In the commentary leading up to the June meeting, I argued that some relaxation of the tariff issues with Mexico, combined with relatively good data for the US economy, would make the FOMC’s decision to hold pat on rates relatively easier. While the FOMC did decide at its June meeting to hold rates constant for […]