Tag Archives: FOMC

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Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – To Pass or Not to Pass (Part 3)

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: August 1, 2019
Market Commentary - Robert-Eisenbeis - To Pass or Not to Pass (Part 3)

The FOMC decided to throw a pass by cutting rates; but given the market’s response, it looks like they were tackled for a loss. In Woody Hayes’ parlance, the one positive of a forward pass turned into a negative. Powell attempted to offer three justifications for the policy move: to insure against downside risks, to […]

We Are Not Clear About a Future Fed Path, Says Cumberland Advisors’s Kotok

Author: , Post Date: July 31, 2019
Cumberland Advisors's David Kotok - Future Fed Path Is Not Clear – Bloomberg TV

We Are Not Clear About a Future Fed Path, Says Cumberland Advisors’s Kotok July 31, 2019 David Kotok, chairman and chief investment officer at Cumberland Advisors, discusses the Fed decision and the way forward for markets. He speaks on “Bloomberg Daybreak: Asia.” Watch at Bloomberg TV or in the embedded player below.

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – To Pass or Not to Pass? (Part 2)

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: July 30, 2019
Federal Reserve - FOMC - Uncertainty, Risk, & Three Options

In our previous discussion of the three options facing the FOMC – raise the funds-rate target, hold the rate steady, or cut the target rate – we argued that there were risks and potentially negative consequences associated with each. The first option would shock markets and raise questions about the Committee’s rationale, regardless of what […]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – To Pass or Not to Pass? (Part 1)

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: July 15, 2019
Federal Reserve - FOMC - Uncertainty, Risk, & Three Options

Ohio State’s Woody Hayes used to say that his problem with the forward pass was that “Three things can happen, and two of them are bad.” Well, after Chairman Powell’s testimony last week, the FOMC may find itself in a similar position, only maybe worse. The Committee can do three things – lower rates, keep […]

The June FOMC

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: June 24, 2019
Federal Reserve - FOMC

In the commentary leading up to the June meeting, I argued that some relaxation of the tariff issues with Mexico, combined with relatively good data for the US economy, would make the FOMC’s decision to hold pat on rates relatively easier. While the FOMC did decide at its June meeting to hold rates constant for […]

May FOMC Minutes: Patience

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: May 28, 2019
Federal Reserve - FOMC

In advance of the release of the FOMC’s May minutes, speculation in the press and by financial market participants was that the Committee might cut the federal funds target rate. The main line of conjecture centered on how long the FOMC could continue to miss its inflation target on the downside before a rate cut […]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary –  White House Considers Economist Judy Shelton for Fed Board

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: May 13, 2019
Federal Reserve Building

For a history of the Fed Board of Governors and its changes over the past century, see https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/bios/board/boardmembership.htm . Right now we have five of seven governors’ seats filled. One of those seats is held by Lael Brainard, and she is in a holdover capacity. She was appointed by President Obama in 2014. In a perfect […]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Hope Is Not a Strategy

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: May 7, 2019
Federal Reserve - FOMC

On Wednesday, the FOMC left its policy stance unchanged. This decision was consistent with the message sent after the previous meeting and was not contradicted by speeches given by FOMC participants in the intermeeting period. This action was also consistent with the consensus view of economists who follow the Fed. Indeed, of the 39 economists […]