Friday’s GDP release showing growth at 4.1% is clearly positive news. Naysayers will argue that this growth rate can’t continue and that 4.1% is clearly above potential. Well, the question is, can 4.1% be repeated the next couple of quarters?
Why meddle? Why overturn decades of central bank independence? Why stir up a pot after the Fed spent 37 years getting from double-digit interest rates (1981) and double digit inflation (1970s) to present day 2% level.
Bob Eisenbeis, Vice Chairman and Chief Monetary Economist at Cumberland Advisors, and Former Director of Research at the Atlanta Fed, on the FOMC meeting and economic outlook.
The FOMC minutes are designed to provide a concise summary of the presentations and discussions that take place at FOMC meetings and the context behind the terse press release provided at the end of each meeting. Presumably, this communication device is meant to provide added color and a sense of where policy may be going. […]
To no one’s surprise, the FOMC left its target range for the federal funds rate constant at 1.5 to 1.75%. This decision maintains the Committee’s record of no rate hikes at meetings where no SEP forecasts were available and also spaces out its gradual normalization of policy. There is virtually no information in the statement […]
Kotok is watching the yield curve “like a hawk,” but he’s not worried about a downturn yet. He argued that the double whammy of tax cuts and government spending will be powerful enough to offset the Fed tapping the brakes on growth.
Fierce forces at work on interest rates … or are we just seeing a mild adjustment? There is no way to know. We are referring to US Treasury interest rates on bills, notes, and bonds. Some bullets follow. 1. It is clear that the newly installed leadership of the Federal Reserve want to raise short-term […]
of federal reserve interest rate risk (data from BloombergDuration.xlsm). CUMB-E Index of Federal Reserve Policy Flexibility. Note: An increase in the measure means the Fed’s interest rate risk exposure has decreased.