Tag Archives: Jerome Powell

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Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Hope Is Not a Strategy

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: May 7, 2019
Federal Reserve - FOMC

On Wednesday, the FOMC left its policy stance unchanged. This decision was consistent with the message sent after the previous meeting and was not contradicted by speeches given by FOMC participants in the intermeeting period. This action was also consistent with the consensus view of economists who follow the Fed. Indeed, of the 39 economists […]

The Interview: David Kotok on GSIBs, Markets & Central Banks with Chris Whalen

Author: Chris Whalen, Post Date: March 14, 2019
Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - The Interview David Kotok on GSIBs, Markets and Central Banks

My friend Chris Whalen was kind enough to use an interview he did with me in his weekly publication on financial and banking issues, The Institutional Risk Analyst. Chris has had a distinguished career, and it was a pleasure to interact with him again. This summer Chris and I are cohosting the June gathering at […]

Can the President Fire the Chairman of the Federal Reserve?

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: January 10, 2019
Cumberland Advisors' Bob Eisenbeis

The question has arisen, does the president have the ability to fire the chairman of the Federal Reserve. The short answer appears to be no. But few understand the structure of the Federal Reserve and how, by design, that structure both compartmentalizes and is designed to insulate policy making from attempts by outsiders to influence […]

Mnuchin tweets Trump denial as Republicans warn against firing Fed chairman

Author: , Post Date: December 22, 2018
Cumberland-Advisors-David-Kotok-In-The-News

By BURGESS EVERETT, BEN WHITE and VICTORIA GUIDA 12/22/2018 03:50 PM EST – Updated 12/22/2018 08:21 PM EST Financial markets have cratered in recent days amid a partial government shutdown, rising interest rates and signs of a slowing economy. Shelby said Trump did not bring up the prospect of firing Powell at a lunch with […]

Market Backlash

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: December 21, 2018
Cumberland Advisors' Bob Eisenbeis

The Treasury market had priced in a 25-basis-point increase in the FOMC’s target range for federal funds prior to the FOMC’s December 18–19 meeting. The Committee was faced with essentially three policy options: Pause, deliver on the 25-basis-point increase and signal a pause, or deliver on the 25-basis-point increase and signal the willingness to continue […]

TNB and the Regulatory Dialectic

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: December 13, 2018
Cumberland Advisors' Bob Eisenbeis

Back in the 1980s Professor Edward Kane coined the term regulatory dialectic to capture the dynamics of how regulated financial institutions found innovative ways to circumvent regulations designed to restrict their behavior. For example, banks adopted the one-bank holding company form in the late 1960s to avoid the restrictions on permissible activities. They subsequently used […]

The November FOMC and the Election

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: November 2, 2018
Federal Reserve - FOMC

The November FOMC meeting is scheduled for November 7 & 8, one day after the November 6 midterm election. We are not looking, then, at the possibility of any further FOMC action on interest rates that might influence the election one way or another, but what about after the election? Is the FOMC likely to […]

Federal Reserve Independence – Under Attack Again?

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: October 18, 2018
Federal Reserve - Independence

The last few days, President Trump has made inflammatory and in some instances misguided remarks as to the nature of current Fed policy, its impact on the stock market and potentially on the economy. Examples follow: “It is a correction (the decline in the stock market) that I feel is caused by the Federal Reserve.” […]