Tag Archives: Leo Chen

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Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – 3Q2019 Review – Market Volatility ETF

Author: Leo Chen, Ph.D., Post Date: September 26, 2019
Cumberland Advisors - Quarterly Review - Market Volatility ETF

Although the S&P 500 made new highs after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates in 2018 for the first time since the Great Recession, the hawkish rate cut was not enough to sustain the market rally, which was derailed by additional tariffs that President Trump announced on August 1st on $300 billion of Chinese imports. […]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Market Volatility ETF Portfolio 2Q 2019 Review: Rising VIX

Author: Leo Chen, Ph.D., Post Date: June 19, 2019
Cumberland Advisors - Quarterly Review - Market Volatility ETF

The US stock market experienced some rising volatility caused by the tariff war during the second quarter of 2019. While the S&P 500 didn’t drop by double digits in May, the volatility index, VIX, briefly touched above 20 last month. As a general rule of thumb, investors can expect a 10% correction in the stock […]

Leveraged ETF Tracking Error

Author: Leo Chen, Ph.D., Post Date: December 14, 2018
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary - Leo Chen, Ph.D.

We discussed the goal of leveraged ETFs previously – to provide daily returns that match the desired ratio over the underlying index (https://www.cumber.com/margin-trading-vs-leveraged-etfs/). These ETFs rebalance daily to maintain the proportional leverage through derivatives such as futures, forwards, and swaps. We will demonstrate that this daily rebalancing feature dictates the long-term returns of leveraged ETFs, […]

Margin Trading vs. Leveraged ETFs

Author: Leo Chen, Ph.D., Post Date: November 27, 2018
Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Margin Trading vs. Leveraged ETFs

Our previous commentary on leveraged ETFs (www.cumber.com/leveraged-etfs/) received many comments from our readers. We would like to thank you for sharing your thoughts and address one common question among many investors: Which is better, margin trading or leveraged ETFs? First, what is the difference between these two methods of investing? We walked through leveraged ETFs […]

Leveraged ETFs

Author: Leo Chen, Ph.D., Post Date: November 14, 2018
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary - Leo Chen, Ph.D.

Our quantitative strategy at Cumberland Advisors is a trading model that combines fundamental indicators and quantitative analysis into a binary output – either fully invested or all in cash. The strategy trades the S&P 500 in two versions: unleveraged and leveraged. Specifically, the leveraged portfolio uses a leveraged ETF as our vehicle to track 3X […]

VIX Inversion

Author: Leo Chen, Ph.D., Post Date: October 9, 2018
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary - Leo Chen, Ph.D.

VIX, the “fear gauge,” measures S&P 500 near-term volatility by using options that expire in 23–37 days. Therefore, the VIX we often discuss is the 1-month volatility index. However, the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) also publishes 3-month (VIX3M) and 6-month (VIX6M) volatility indexes, which are less well known. The 3-month and 6-month VIX indexes […]