Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (Dec 17, 2018 – Dec 21, 2018)

Week In Review

The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team. These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.

MATT MCALEER’S WEEKLY RECAP

Matt talks about trading and pricing in this week’s review. Do we think the market is worth 7% less than when it started on Monday? David Kotok kicks things off with some history of the market going back to 69/70 and offers some projections going forward. WATCH HERE.

 

 

 

 

 

MARKET COMMENTARY

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FEATURED INTERVIEW

Fair For Mnuchin To Pinpoint Algo-Trading: Eisenbeis (Radio) – Bloomberg Markets

 

Bloomberg Markets – Bob Eisenbeis, Vice Chairman and Chief Monetary Economist at Cumberland Advisors, and Former Director of Research at the Atlanta Fed, on the FOMC meeting and markets. Hosted by Pimm Foxx and Lisa Ambramowicz. Running time 08:02
 

Listen here: https://www.cumber.com/fair-for-mnuchin-to-pinpoint-algo-trading-eisenbeis-radio-bloomberg-markets/

IN THE NEWS

Quoted:David R. Kotok 12/17/2018


Painting by Cumberland Advisors’ Chief Global Economist, William Witherell

IN CASE YOU MISSED IT

    • Surplus, Interest, Debt: Personal Finance in a Nutshell

      Michael McNiven, Ph.D. 10/26/2017

      Cumberland Advisors in partnership with the University of South Florida, Sarasota-Manatee (USFSM) and the Global Interdependence Center (GIC), with support from the Financial Planners Association (FPA), are proud to announce the 3rd annual Financial Literacy Day which will be held in Sarasota, FL at USFSM on April 11, 2019. Several nationally recognized speakers are on the agenda. See the USF Sarasota-Manatee website for further information about our upcoming event, “Financial Markets and the Economy – Financial Literacy Day III.” What follows here is a basic guide for individuals regarding their personal approach to debt management and wealth creation. U.S. household consumer debt has reached an all-time high of almost $13 trillion. This includes student loans, auto loans, credit cards, and mortgages/home equity lines of credit. Many of our friends and neighbors of all socioeconomic classes have not been exposed enough to fundamental financial principles. Feel free to share it with others in your communities who may benefit from a refresher on these basic points. An easy to share and downloadable PDF version of this piece is available too. Continued…

  • Kilimanjaro

    David R. Kotok 06/07/2017

    This is the end of my fourth safari. South Africa and Zambia now recede into memory as a fresh natural mosaic of Tanzania and Kenya add a layer to the blending of remarkable African images. Amsterdam to Arusha to start. Coffee fresh and strong. Then off. Tarangire, Lake Manyara, Ngorongoro, Serengeti, Masai Mara, and other names are exquisite, exotic labels that still cannot wholly capture the vividness of the images and memories. Somehow this fourth time, there is still the excitement and wonder of my first time in South Africa, many years ago. In the bush there is an expanse of separation from the turmoil of global politics, terrorism and markets. Roles and patterns in the bush are understood. Carnivores and herbivores know their places and methods in the pursuit of life and of death. Suicide bombers killing children are not part of the bush’s ecosystem. Hemingway’s greatness with his pen was to blend powerful opposites in his depiction of the human drama. Hence we started this commentary with his movingly descriptive metaphor of Harry’s death. In “Snows,” Hemingway’s writing alternately flows between retrospective stream of consciousness and the present, between the internal and private place that is uniquely known only to each of us and the public behavior that may or may not be under our control. That has also been the tenor of the conversation we have enjoyed privately on this trip, contrasted with the interactions and observations made during two weeks on three continents while interfacing with the diversity of the human form and spirit. Yes, we followed markets daily. And, yes, we watched developments in Washington and Pyongyang and Beijing and Jerusalem and London and elsewhere. And, yes, we were in frequent contact with our colleagues and office. Such is travel in today’s world. Even in the bush there is a tower and a signal. And, for us, there is a personal and professional curiosity that requires our always being current. There is something else. Continued…

UPCOMING EVENTS

    • Adapting to a Changing Climate

      From hurricanes to red tide and sea level rise, learn how a changing climate affects the Sarasota-Manatee region and the state of Florida. Expert speakers will discuss the challenges and impact on Florida and other coastal communities while uncovering the adaptive strategies that bring unique social and economic opportunities. The featured speaker is Bob Bunting, CEO Waterstone Strategies/Scientist/Entrepreneur – January 25, 2019 – Selby Auditorium, USFSM , 8:30 am – 3 pm. Lunch is included. Cumberland Advisors is a sponsor and Patricia Healy, CFA, from our firm will discuss “Climate, Municipal Bonds and Infrastructure” with the audience. Details Here.

  • U.S. Manufacturing in a Global Context

    Save the Date! GIC is returning to Sarasota, FL on Friday, February 1, 2019 to partner with the Financial Planning Associates of the Suncoast and Cumberland Advisors. Join us at the Sarasota Yacht Club as we welcome Bill Strauss, Senior Economist and Economic Adviser of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, for a presentation on U.S. Manufacturing in a Global Context. Strauss is a senior economist and economic adviser in the economic research department at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, which he joined in 1982. His chief responsibilities include analyzing the current performance of both the Midwest economy and the manufacturing sector for use in monetary policy. Details Here.

ADDITIONAL RESOURCES

Lessons from Thucydides

David R. Kotok has written the monograph pamphlet, “Lessons from Thucydides” detailing information asymmetries and their implications for investors and world affairs. The concept of a Thucydides Trap and its rise and avoidability (or lack thereof) is often debated and David makes a case for dealing with them weaving current and historical events into a comprehensive narrative.

Thucydides-Trap

This free monograph also has lessons for President Donald Trump’s trade policy. Can the United States avoid a Thucydides Trap with China & Xi Jinping? Will you benefit from the Lessons of Thucydides or fall victim to a Thucydides Trap? If information is key, you now have a handbook at your fingertips. Download a copy of this monograph in either PDF (free) or Kindle ($.99) format. https://www.cumber.com/thucydides/


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Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (Nov 26, 2018 – Nov 30, 2018)

The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team. These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.

Week In Review

MATT MCALEER’S WEEKLY RECAP

Matt gives us the latest from the Equity Desk In this Week In Review for November 26-30, 2018. Our Director of Equity Strategies for Cumberland Advisors tells you how he’s trading and shares some forward thinking. WATCH HERE.

Cumberland-Advisors-Matt-McAleer-Market-Position-Broadly


 

MARKET COMMENTARY

 

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FEATURED VIDEO


John Mousseau joins Matt McAleer this week for a discussion about his week in bonds.

The video is available here.


IN THE NEWS

 

 

 

 


IN CASE YOU MISSED IT

 

    • Bitcoin price WARNING: HILARIOUS moment investor compares cryptocurrency to CHOCOLATE COIN

      David Kotok 1/04/2018

      BITCOIN is as tangible as a chocolate coin a top investor has warned in a hilarious quip about the cryptocurrency. Appearing on Bloomberg, Mr Kotok offered the hosts a “New Year’s gift” – a chocolate coin shaped like a bitcoin. Handing out the sweet treat, he said: “I brought proof that bitcoin can be tangible, here’s a New Year’s gift for each of you.” The delighted presenters asked if the gift was chocolate. Mr Kotok said that the chocolate version of the cryptocurrency had more value than the real thing. He said: “That is a chocolate covered bitcoin, that is the most tangible value you will see in bitcoin.”Continued…

 

  • Europe’s Migration Crisis

    Bill Witherell 12/15/2015

    A European perspective on the complex societal challenges now confronting Europe as it seeks to address a humanitarian crisis and heightened security risks. A reader shares, “In every institution, including education, we take for granted that men and women will mix and work together. My friends’ children are off dating each other and staying over at each other’s houses. Think about this very specifically and you see that the whole basis of social organization will come under pressure if migration continues, or is allowed to continue, on the scale which seems likely. Think about business life, and you’ll see the same thing. The questions to ask are these: How many will come, or try to come, in the coming years? How will they try to live when they get here? What will the reaction of Europeans be? How will all this affect enterprise, investment, and credit ratings?” Continued…

 

 


 

UPCOMING EVENTS

 

    • Adapting to a Changing Climate

      From hurricanes to red tide and sea level rise, learn how a changing climate affects the Sarasota-Manatee region and the state of Florida. Expert speakers will discuss the challenges and impact on Florida and other coastal communities while uncovering the adaptive strategies that bring unique social and economic opportunities. The featured speaker is Bob Bunting, CEO Waterstone Strategies/Scientist/Entrepreneur – January 25, 2019 – Selby Auditorium, USFSM , 8:30 am – 3 pm. Lunch is included. Cumberland Advisors is a sponsor and Patricia Healy, CFA, from our firm will discuss “Climate, Municipal Bonds and Infrastructure” with the audience. Details Here.

 

  • U.S. Manufacturing in a Global Context

    Save the Date! GIC is returning to Sarasota, FL on Friday, February 1, 2019 to partner with the Financial Planning Associates of the Suncoast and Cumberland Advisors. Join us at the Sarasota Yacht Club as we welcome Bill Strauss, Senior Economist and Economic Adviser of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, for a presentation on U.S. Manufacturing in a Global Context. Strauss is a senior economist and economic adviser in the economic research department at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, which he joined in 1982. His chief responsibilities include analyzing the current performance of both the Midwest economy and the manufacturing sector for use in monetary policy. Details Here.

 


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Thank you for engaging with us, your comments always welcome.

Cumberland Advisors
Weekly Update
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Links to other websites or electronic media controlled or offered by Third-Parties (non-affiliates of Cumberland Advisors) are provided only as a reference and courtesy to our users. Cumberland Advisors has no control over such websites, does not recommend or endorse any opinions, ideas, products, information, or content of such sites, and makes no warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, reliability or suitability of their content. Cumberland Advisors hereby disclaims liability for any information, materials, products or services posted or offered at any of the Third-Party websites. The Third-Party may have a privacy and/or security policy different from that of Cumberland Advisors. Therefore, please refer to the specific privacy and security policies of the Third-Party when accessing their websites.

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Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.




Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (Nov 05, 2018 – Nov 09, 2018)

The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team. These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.


MATT MCALEER’S WEEKLY RECAP

 

Matt McAleer gives us his take on the market this week. What about cash? Is it good to have it? Matt offers some insight into how Cumberland Advisors leverages cash and their strategy to use it for advantage. WATCH HERE.

 

Cumberland-Advisors-Matt-McAleer-Update-November-09-2018-Video

 


MARKET COMMENTARY

 

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FEATURED INTERVIEW

 

Can Smallcaps Regain Status as Market Leaders After October Selloff? Matt McAleer Weighs In.

Matt McAleer discusses opportunities in the market, what about FAANG, active vs. passive trading, what position are investors truly in financial markets, and what types of value in the market he gravitates toward. His conversation is with Oliver Renick, host of “Market On Close” at TDAmeritrade.

The interview is available here.

 


IN THE NEWS

 

Quoted: David R. Kotok 11/09/2018

Quoted: John R. Mousseau, CFA 11/09/2018

Quoted: David R. Kotok 11/02/2018


IN CASE YOU MISSED IT

 

    • The Rise Of Municipal Separately Managed Accounts 2018 Update

      Patricia Healy, CFA 9/18/2018

      Cumberland has utilized separately managed accounts to execute its fixed-income strategy since its inception in 1973, long before separately managed accounts (SMAs) were popularized in the early 2000s. Market Commentary – Cumberland Advisors – The Rise of Municipal Separately Managed Accounts 2018 Update What exactly is an SMA? Per Investopedia: “A[n] SMA is a portfolio of assets under the management of a professional investment firm. In the United States, the vast majority of such firms are called registered investment advisors, and operate under the regulatory auspices of the Investment Advisors Act of 1940 and the purview of the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). One or more portfolio managers are responsible for day-to-day investment decisions, supported by a team of analysts, operations and administrative staff. SMAs differ from pooled vehicles like mutual funds in that each portfolio is unique to a single account (hence the name). In other words, if you set up a separate account with Money Manager X, then Manager X has the discretion to make decisions for this account that may be different from decisions made for other accounts.” The reasons for managing money in this fashion are the same today as they were then. Continued…

    • How Safe is Your Bank?

      David R. Kotok 7/25/2008

      In 1790, Edmund Burke, the founder of Anglo-American conservatism, waxed eloquently about the power and responsibilities of a government’s agencies in a democracy. He said: “To execute laws is a royal office; to execute orders is not to be king. A political magistracy, though merely such, is a great trust.” This warning came before there were central banks like the Federal Reserve, before there were bank regulators & supervisors, and before there were bank deposit insurers like the FDIC. Was Burke prescient and thinking about them? Two hundred and eighteen years after Burke’s admonition, we can ask: Is your money safe in the bank? Here is what we know about banks and your bank deposits. And there is a lot we don’t know. Continued…

 

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Cumberland Advisors
Weekly Update
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Links to other websites or electronic media controlled or offered by Third-Parties (non-affiliates of Cumberland Advisors) are provided only as a reference and courtesy to our users. Cumberland Advisors has no control over such websites, does not recommend or endorse any opinions, ideas, products, information, or content of such sites, and makes no warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, reliability or suitability of their content. Cumberland Advisors hereby disclaims liability for any information, materials, products or services posted or offered at any of the Third-Party websites. The Third-Party may have a privacy and/or security policy different from that of Cumberland Advisors. Therefore, please refer to the specific privacy and security policies of the Third-Party when accessing their websites.

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Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.




Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (Oct 29, 2018 – Nov 02, 2018)

The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team. These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.

 

MATT MCALEER’S WEEKLY RECAP

Matt McAleer talks about the market this week and Cumberland Advisors’ broad positions. David Kotok jumps in with some Q&A about trade talks and the midterm elections: are they having an effect on the market?

 

 

MARKET COMMENTARY

 

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FEATURED INTERVIEW

David Kotok, Chief Investment Officer/Co-Founder, Cumberland Advisors, joins Chuck Jaffe on his program, Money Life.

David Kotok and Chuck Jaffe discuss what’s normal for financial markets, the Great Recession, thoughts on the volatility of October 2018, trade wars, and how does he see the year and the decade finishing out.

The interview is available here.


IN THE NEWS

 

BLOOMBERG – Markets to Head Higher After Rocky Period (Radio)
Quoted: David R. Kotok 10/31/2018

The Queensland Times – Puerto Rico’s revised fiscal plan shows surplus; bonds rally
Quoted: Shaun Burgess 10/23/2018

Sarasota Herald Tribune – MOUSSEAU: The Cumberland World Series Theory of the Bond
Quoted: David R. Kotok 10/19/2018


 

IN CASE YOU MISSED IT

 

    • Fed Independence

      Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D. 7/23/2018

      In the wake of the turmoil in Washington, DC, over his performance in Helsinki, President Trump also took a sideswipe at the Federal Reserve, criticizing the FOMC’s recent efforts to normalize policy. Most presidents – though not all – have understood that Fed independence ensures separation from the Treasury and serves as a check on fiscal excesses. When a central bank takes orders from the fiscal side of government, history shows that inflation and economic decline soon follow. Continued…

 

  • Tuplip Fever

    David R. Kotok 10/15/2017

    Three levels are apparent in the wonderfully crafted movie Tulip Fever, in which the impeccably cast Judi Dench is both abbess (mother superior) and tulip-speculating vault keeper. The film is a cinematic lesson about trading momentum and human emotions overtaking investment reasoning. But there is also a lesson in Dutch history, with a marvelous depiction of early 17th-century Amsterdam and only by surmise and projections Amsterdam’s upstart cousin Nieuw Amsterdam, otherwise known as New York. Bottom line: NYC really was and still is a Dutch town. Continued…

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Cumberland Advisors
Weekly Update
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Links to other websites or electronic media controlled or offered by Third-Parties (non-affiliates of Cumberland Advisors) are provided only as a reference and courtesy to our users. Cumberland Advisors has no control over such websites, does not recommend or endorse any opinions, ideas, products, information, or content of such sites, and makes no warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, reliability or suitability of their content. Cumberland Advisors hereby disclaims liability for any information, materials, products or services posted or offered at any of the Third-Party websites. The Third-Party may have a privacy and/or security policy different from that of Cumberland Advisors. Therefore, please refer to the specific privacy and security policies of the Third-Party when accessing their websites.

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Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.




Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (Oct 22, 2018 – Oct 26, 2018)

The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team. They are not revised assessments and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries our editors have determined of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.

MATT MCALEER’S WEEKLY RECAP

Matt McAleer on attitudes, movements, signals, cash, and broad positions in the market from Cumberland Advisors’ perspective.


 

MARKET COMMENTARY

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RECENT TV

China Conducting ‘Subtle’ Stock Market Intervention, Cumberland CIO Says


David Kotok talks about China’s economy, policies, stock market, and the disputes between the world’s two largest economies. He speaks with Ramy Inocencio and Haidi Stroud-Watts on “Bloomberg Daybreak: Australia.”

See More Recent TV

 

IN THE NEWS


IN CASE YOU MISSED IT

 

  • Venezuela Implodes, Neighbors Suffer

    Bill Witherell, Ph.D. 8/28/2018

    In August, Venezuela devalued its currency, the bolivar, by 95%, cutting five zeros off the exchange rate. This measure was a desperate response to hyperinflation that reached an astonishing rate of 83,000% YoY in July, with prices doubling every 26 days. The IMF has projected the rate could reach one million percent this year. Continued…

  • Key West, Bob Bunting

    Key West, Bob Bunting 11/27/20178

    On September 10, 2018, Bob Bunting reminded us that one year prior, Hurricane Irma terrified citizens of Florida as the largest evacuation in US history and moved 6M people before the storm struck with 140 mph wind gusts at Marco Island before traversing the center of Florida. Had the storm moved 50 miles west, a knockout blow to Florida’s West Coast would have changed life as we know it. Our thoughts now go out to our fellow Floridians in the panhandle. Businesses and homeowners continue to struggle in areas like Panama City and Mexico Beach after Hurricane Michael destroyed thousands of homes and buildings on Florida’s Gulf Coast after making landfall on October 10, 2018.

Thank you for engaging with us, your comments always welcome.

 

Cumberland Advisors
Weekly Update
Email | About

Links to other websites or electronic media controlled or offered by Third-Parties (non-affiliates of Cumberland Advisors) are provided only as a reference and courtesy to our users. Cumberland Advisors has no control over such websites, does not recommend or endorse any opinions, ideas, products, information, or content of such sites, and makes no warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, reliability or suitability of their content. Cumberland Advisors hereby disclaims liability for any information, materials, products or services posted or offered at any of the Third-Party websites. The Third-Party may have a privacy and/or security policy different from that of Cumberland Advisors. Therefore, please refer to the specific privacy and security policies of the Third-Party when accessing their websites.

Sign up for our FREE Cumberland Market Commentaries

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.




Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (Oct 15, 2018 – Oct 19, 2018)

The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team. They are not revised assessments and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries our editors have determined of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.

SUMMARY OF TRADES

Cumberland-Advisors-Matt-McAleer-Market-Update-Video-Player

MARKET COMMENTARY

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RECENT TV

Fed Expected to Say Policy Will Be ‘Data Dependent,’ Cumberland’s Eisenbeis Says


Robert Eisenbeis, vice chairman of Cumberland Advisors and a former Atlanta Federal Reserve research director, talks about the central bank’s policy.

See More Recent TV

IN THE NEWS

 

IN CASE YOU MISSED IT

 

  • Q3 2018 Municipal Credit Commentary

    Patricia Healy, CFA 9/28/2018

    In addition to the SCOTUS rulings, Q2 was notable because all states passed budgets on time or nearly on time – even the states notorious for passing late budgets, such as Illinois, Connecticut, and Pennsylvania. Common threads for this phenomenon include election-year politics, good revenue growth driven by a generally improved economy, and the acceleration of tax collections in 2017 due to the Tax Cut and Jobs Act.

  • The Tale of Two Ratios: Shorter and Longer

    John R. Mousseau, CFA 9/28/2018

    In a year when we have seen commentators talking about the relative flatness of yield curves, we have a conundrum when we look at the US Treasury yield curve & US muni yield curve.

Thank you for engaging with us and enjoy your weekend!
Cumberland Advisors
Weekly Update
Email | About

Links to other websites or electronic media controlled or offered by Third-Parties (non-affiliates of Cumberland Advisors) are provided only as a reference and courtesy to our users. Cumberland Advisors has no control over such websites, does not recommend or endorse any opinions, ideas, products, information, or content of such sites, and makes no warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, reliability or suitability of their content. Cumberland Advisors hereby disclaims liability for any information, materials, products or services posted or offered at any of the Third-Party websites. The Third-Party may have a privacy and/or security policy different from that of Cumberland Advisors. Therefore, please refer to the specific privacy and security policies of the Third-Party when accessing their websites.

Sign up for our FREE Cumberland Market Commentaries

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.