Peter Boockvar summarized a view of this Pearl Harbor Day employment report. We agree with him. Here’s Peter: “Bottom line, the moderation in the pace of job gains coincides with the recent uptick we’ve seen in jobless claims. It’s hard not to wonder how much of this is due to a business pause on the […]
“We’ll not mince words here: The president’s characterization of himself as “Tariff Man” is juvenile and unpresidential. We cannot imagine Mr. Eisenhower, Mr. Kennedy, Mr. Johnson, Mr. Nixon, Mr. Ford, Mr. Carter, Mr. Reagan, Mr. Bush, Mr. Clinton, Mr. Bush or Mr. Obama ever… EVER… making a juvenile statement such as this to any other […]
The United States seems to be losing the ill-conceived Trump-Navarro trade war. The evidence of this loss continues to mount. Here is an important Bloomberg catalog of specific facts and items and actions. (Note that this is not “fake news.”) “These Products Show How Hard It’ll Be to Beat China in Trade War,” https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-11-11/trump-s-china-cold-war-yields-hard-look-at-global-supply-chains. Meanwhile, […]
For the next few years, the increased debt financing of the United States will not be a problem for markets. That will remain the case as long as the US dollar is the unchallenged world reserve currency, as it has been for decades. When you survey the world and look at other countries’ economic systems and current situations, the US emerges as the best or, if you are a hand-wringing detractor, the least troubled.
We thank readers for their many comments and criticisms regarding our commentary on climate change and markets. For those who missed the original piece, here is the link: “Climate Change & Markets,” https://www.cumber.com/climate-change-markets/. There were diverse responses ranging from total disagreement to full endorsement. No one offered observations about the market section. Many agreed that […]
Talking stock markets this morning with Matt McAleer in our shop. Bullets: 1 These kinds of negative weekly momentum extremes have been profitable entry points in the past. 2. “The Trump bump has become the Trump dump” according to one editorial. Trump rhetoric is being dismissed by market agents as pure politics. 3. When election […]
Why did Hurricane Michael intensify so quickly? And why was the Western US so hot and dry this summer? And what about climate change all across the rest of the global landscape and seascape? And what do I do with my portfolio? There are still many climate change deniers. But that cohort shrinks as more […]
We want to open a discussion about cognitive epistemology, invoking behavioral economics and translating our conclusions into a market strategy at the end. Epistemology is the study of how we know what we know – or really, what we think we know. Here is a precise definition: “the theory of knowledge, especially with regard to […]