Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (May 13, 2019 – May 17, 2019)

Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (May 13, 2019 – May 17, 2019)
May 18, 2019

The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team. These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We may also include older commentaries that our editors have determined to be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.

 

MATT MCALEER’S WEEKLY RECAP

The markets are two sided and you can approach them from a half-glass-full or a half-glass-empty perspective. In this week’s video, we talk about:

  • What we really dislike
  • What’s positive
  • What we’re keeping an eye on
  • Cash levels
  • We hate being late!
  • What we’re purchasing
  • What we’ll look to do in a pullback
  • Software
  • Liquidity is king

And Matt McAleer tops it off with some “horse” talk and a nod to what John Mousseau and he likes.

Watch below or at this link: YouTube


LATEST MARKET COMMENTARY

Tariffs – Macroeconomic Versus Microeconomic Effects: In the Long Run We Are All Dead

Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D. 05/17/2019

Robert Brusca Ph.D. on Tariffs, Trade, and the Fed

Robert Brusca, Ph.D. 05/14/2019

White House Considers Economist Judy Shelton for Fed Board

David R. Kotok 05/13/2019

Hope Is Not a Strategy

Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D. 05/07/2019

Brexit Deadlock and Investor Uncertainty

William Witherell, Ph.D. 05/06/2019

Q1 2019 Credit Commentary

Patricia Healy, CFA 05/03/2019

Sign up or see more Market Commentary


IN THE NEWS

Bloomberg – Trade War’s Hammerlock on Bond Market Puts Lower Yields in Sight

Quoted: David R. Kotok 05/18/2019

CNN Business – Why the US-China trade war won’t last

Quoted: David R. Kotok 05/14/2019

POLITICO – Markets freak (a little)

Quoted: David R. Kotok 05/08/2019

Bloomberg Radio – Bloomberg Daybreak Asia: Wear a Helmet When Doing Falconry With These Hawks (Radio)

Quoted: David R. Kotok 05/06/2019

Bloomberg Radio – The Fed Decides (Radio Podcast): Bob Eisenbeis on Bloomberg Markets

Quoted: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D. 05/02/2019

WisdomTree – A Unique Lens on Risk Management

Quoted: Matt McAleer 05/01/2019


Join John Mousseau, Matt McAleer, & David Kotok for interviews this past week.

Cumberland Advisors Recent TV Appearances

LOCALLY

Gabriel Hament pictured here with Donna Maytham
Gabriel Hament pictured here with Donna Maytham, Fine Arts Society President

 

This week, Gabriel Hament, Investment Advisor Representative specializing in Foundations, Charitable Accounts & Private Individuals, attended and participated in the Fine Arts Society of Sarasota’s 2019 Scholarship Awards Luncheon at the Bird Key Yacht Club. Audience members were treated to live violin, piano and trumpet performances by scholarship recipients. Young artists studying graphic design, painting and illustration presented their latest works. Over $46,000 in scholarships were awarded to 12 high school and college students pursuing degrees in music, dance and art and design. Locally, students from Booker High School, Pine View, Sarasota High School and Ringling College of Art and Design were well-represented and recognized for their achievements. The Fine Arts Society of Sarasota has given more than $1 million in grants and scholarships in support of our local art community. To learn more about the good work of the Fine Arts Society of Sarasota, please visit www.fineartsrq.com.

ADDITIONAL RESOURCES

Lessons from Thucydides

David R. Kotok has written the monograph pamphlet, “Lessons from Thucydides” detailing information asymmetries and their implications for investors and world affairs. The concept of a Thucydides Trap and its rise and avoidability (or lack thereof) is often debated and David makes a case for dealing with them weaving current and historical events into a comprehensive narrative.

Thucydides-Trap

This free monograph also has lessons for President Donald Trump’s trade policy. Can the United States avoid a Thucydides Trap with China & Xi Jinping? Will you benefit from the Lessons of Thucydides or fall victim to a Thucydides Trap? If information is key, you now have a handbook at your fingertips. Download a copy of this monograph in either PDF (free) or Kindle ($.99) format. https://www.cumber.com/thucydides/




Matt McAleer talks Markets with Oliver Renick on TD Ameritrade 2019-05-13

Matt McAleer, Executive Vice President & Director of Equity Strategies for Cumberland Advisors, appears on the TD Ameritrade Network, May 13th, to discuss financial markets with Oliver Renick.

Matt McAleer talks Markets with Oliver Renick on TD Ameritrade 2019-05-13

View the discussion here: https://tdameritradenetwork.com

You can watch Matt’s deliver weekly updated market commentary here on Cumberland Advisors’ YouTube Channel.




A Unique Lens on Risk Management

May 1, 2019 – Jeremy Schwartz and Liqian Ren from WisdomTree Funds hosted an investment strategy discussion that covered factor investing, U.S. sector trades and the global outlook with Matt McAleer, Director of Equity Strategies at Cumberland Advisors.

Matt McAleer, Director of Equity Strategies at Cumberland Advisors

Read about or listen to their discussion here: https://www.wisdomtree.com




Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (April 15, 2019 – April 18, 2019)

Week In Review
The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team. These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.

MATT MCALEER’S WEEKLY RECAP

Short week. The equity and bond markets were closed on Friday. We talk about some of John Mousseau’s strategies in the bond market and we plan to get John on camera next week to talk about interest rates and munis. On the equity side, a fairly benign week outside of healthcare. We recall some of the atmosphere from 2016 when healthcare costs were top of mind for politicians and the news cycle. Headline risk creeps in on medical which includes medical device companies and biotech and we take a moment to explain.


April is Financial Literacy Month and Cumberland Advisors just held the event, “Financial Markets and the Economy: Financial Literacy Day III” with our partners at the University of South Florida Sarasota-Manatee. Take an opportunity to check out our YouTube channel and take advantage of the breadth and depth of the subject matters, speakers, and panelists we’ve assembled. Gretchen Morgenson’s keynote address from the conference is up and we’ll be posting more videos over the next week or so including our talk with Susan Harper, the Consul General of Canada in Miami, Florida. www.cumber.com/youtube . In the meantime, here is a link available to the full day of talks and panels to enjoy until our video segmentation process is finished. Enjoy!

Our partners at USF Sarasota-Manatee have provided a streaming video link of Cumberland Advisors’ annual event, “Financial Markets and the Economy – Financial Literacy Day III.” It was an open forum for individual investors, state and local officials, financial institutions, pension trustees, philanthropy activists, policy makers and policy wonks – all were welcome. At Cumberland Advisors, we believe everyone benefits from increased financial education. Topics included but were not limited to philanthropy and its impact and stewardship, financial market developments, the outlook for the U.S. stock market and the world, the U.S. banking system, and the global economic outlook.

We are busy segmenting panels and talks for our YouTube Channel. Until these are produced, below is an outline of the entire day’s activities to help you navigate and select where in the hours long streaming video you’d like to watch:

FEATURED VIDEO

FINANCIAL MARKETS & THE ECONOMY Financial Literacy Day III Full Day Video Link from USFSM

Streaming Video Link

April 11, 2019

8:00 – 8:30 a.m. | Registration and Coffee

8:30 – 9:00 a.m. | Welcoming Remarks

David R. Kotok, CIO, Cumberland Advisors, GIC Board Member

Karen Holbrook, Regional Chancellor, USF Sarasota-Manatee

9:00 – 10:00 a.m. | Session I – The Stock Market

Matt McAleer, Executive VP & Director of Equity Strategies, Cumberland Advisors

Richard Hoey, Senior Economic Advisor to BNY Mellon Wealth Management

Tripp Zimmerman, Director of Research at WisdomTree Asset Management, Inc.

Moderator: Maryanne Waldman, RBC, Boston, MA

10:00 – 10:15 a.m. | Break

10:15 – 11:30 a.m. | Session II – Health Hunger and Philanthropy

Judith Monroe, President and CEO, CDC Foundation

Erin McLeod, CEO, Friendship Centers, Sarasota, FL

Lisa Marsh Ryerson, President, AARP Foundation.

Gabriel Hament, Cumberland Advisors

Moderator: Lisa Shaw, CFP, CIMA, Managing Partner, Cygnus Asset Management, LLC

11:30 a.m. – 12:00 p.m. | Special Report on the Use of the Bloomberg Terminals – Two Years Later

Paul Bova, Director of Development and/or Dr. GJ de Vreede, Dean,
University of South Florida Sarasota-Manatee College of Business

Noon – 1:00 p.m. | Lunch

1:00 – 1:15 p.m. | Report on National and International Financial Literacy on-line exams

Christine Brown, CFA Tampa Bay, Society Executive, Tampa, FL

1:15 – 2:00 p.m. | A Conversation with Canada’s Consul General in Florida

Susan Harper, Canadian Consul General in Miami, Former Economic Minister for Embassy of Canada

2:00 – 3:00 p.m. | Session III – How the World Looks to Me

Leland Miller, CEO, China Beige Book International

Paul O’Brien, Former Deputy Chief Investment Officer, Strategy and Planning Department, Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, ADIA.

Moderator: Alison Gardner, Senior Vice President & Financial Advisor, RBC Wealth Management

3:00 – 3:15 p.m. | Break

3:15 – 4:00 p.m. | Keynote Speaker

Gretchen Morgenson, Senior Special Writer in the Investigations unit at The Wall Street Journal

4:00 p.m. | Concluding Remarks

See and read more of this at MailChimp’s site:

https://mailchi.mp/cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-week-in-review-april-15-2019-april-18-2019




1Q2019 Review: Tactical Trend

The Tactical Trend strategy is designed to allocate capital to the strongest primary asset classes, including equities, fixed income, commodities, and cash. The strategy will always allocate to a minimum of two asset classes in an attempt to diversify risk.

CA-Matthew-C-McAleer

A solid bounce in the equity markets off the late December lows has continued through March. The initial move higher was led by small- and mid-cap stocks, but recently large-cap has rallied strongly. Over the past 12 months, growth stocks have traded with higher relative strength than value stocks. The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) remains our largest broad index holding, while small-cap is represented by the S&P Small-Cap 600 Growth ETF, IJT.

Our sector and industry exposure leans on technology, with allocations to the S&P 500 Tech Index ETF, RYT, as well as to Microsoft stock. The holding in RYT is equal-weighted, which allows us to get further down into the mid-cap space and not duplicate the weightings in QQQ. The strategy has also been helped by our biotech investment. After a brutal Q4, XBI has rallied well as one of the leading sectors YTD.

After a difficult 2018, international emerging markets began to rally late in the year and bottomed ahead of domestic stocks. Our allocation to emerging markets through the IEMG ETF provides the strategy exposure to the Asian and Latin American markets. While an added dose of volatility can be present in emerging markets, it is difficult to ignore their impressive growth forecasts.

Matthew C. McAleer
Executive Vice President and Director of Equity Strategies
Email | Bio

__________________________________________________________________

Cumberland Advisors invites you to our third annual Financial Literacy Day, to be held April 11, 2019, from 8:30 AM to 4 PM at the Selby Auditorium of the University of South Florida Sarasota-Manatee.
Our focus is “Financial Markets and the Economy,” featuring:
Panels –
• The Stock Market
• Health Hunger and Philanthropy
• How the World Looks to Me – A Global Economic Outlook
Special Presentations –
• A Conversation with Susan Harper, Canada’s Consul Gen in Fla, on Trade/World Affairs
• Keynote by Gretchen Morgenson, Senior Special Writer in the Investigations Unit at The Wall Street Journal and Former Business and Financial Editor for the New York Times.
We welcome and encourage the participation of our friends, colleagues, and clients. The cost is only $50 to register, and includes coffee, pastries, catered lunch, and a light reception with Gretchen Morgenson. Please reserve your spot soon – we expect a full auditorium. Learn more: https://www.cumber.com/financial-literacy-day/



Matt McAleer talks Markets on TD Ameritrade 2019-03-14

Matt McAleer, Executive Vice President & Director of Equity Strategies for Cumberland Advisors, appears on the TD Ameritrade Network to discuss financial markets with Oliver Renick.

View the discussion here: https://tdameritradenetwork.com

You can watch Matt’s deliver weekly updated market commentary here on Cumberland Advisors’ YouTube Channel.

Morning Trade Live_ 03_14_2019 _ TD Ameritrade Network

Can’t get enough of Matt? Listen to him during a 2018 radio discussion about Financial Literacy in advance of Cumberland Advisors’ annual event with GIC and USFSM here: Suncoast Speaks interview with John Mousseau & Matt McAleer about Financial Literacy




Matt McAleer talks Markets on TD Ameritrade

Matt McAleer, Executive Vice President & Director of Equity Strategies for Cumberland Advisors, appears on the TD Ameritrade Network to discuss financial markets with Oliver Renick.

View the discussion here: https://tdameritradenetwork.com

You can watch Matt’s deliver weekly updated market commentary here on Cumberland Advisors’ YouTube Channel.

Matthew McAleer, Executive Vice President & Director of Equity Strategies for Cumberland Advisors, appears on the TD Ameritrade Network to discuss financial markets.

Can’t get enough of Matt? Listen to him during a 2018 radio discussion about Financial Literacy in advance of Cumberland Advisors’ annual event with GIC and USFSM here: Suncoast Speaks interview with John Mousseau & Matt McAleer about Financial Literacy




Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (Feb 04, 2019 – Feb 08, 2019)

Week In ReviewThe Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team. These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.

MATT MCALEER’S WEEKLY RECAP

Matt McAleer invites John Mousseau to join him in this week’s wrap up. John relates continued demand for bonds. How about volatility in interest rates? And what effect are taxes and returns having in muniland and for investors? Will Trump change taxes again? John weighs in on these things.

Now onto Matt’s recap. Sometimes the markets act very reasonably from a trading standpoint. As mentioned 2 weeks ago, weekly momentum had reached elevated levels that normally create a pause or pullback. Saw some of that over the past 6-7 trading sessions. He talks about where he sees strength. Have a great weekend. WATCH HERE.

Matt McAleer and John Mousseau will provide extended quarterly videos for our clients that will incorporate equities and fixed-income in the coming weeks. Stay tuned!

 


MARKET COMMENTARY

 

    • Sign up or see more Market Commentary

       


      UPCOMING EVENTS

      Financial Literacy Day – Financial Markets and the Economy
      You’ll want to mark your calendar for Thursday, April 11, when the University of South Florida Sarasota-Manatee joins Cumberland Advisors and the Global Interdependence Center in hosting the third annual “Financial Markets and the Economy Financial Literacy Day” event.

      Financial Markets and the Economy Financial Literacy Day III

      The Outlook for the US Stock Market & Global Economic Outlook will be a feature and there will be a special report on the “Use of the Bloomberg Terminals – Two Years Later” after Cumberland Advisors and David Kotok gifted them to the University led by Paul Bova, Director of Development and/or Dr. GJ de Vreede, Dean, University of South Florida Sarasota-Manatee College of Business. We look forward to seeing what level of impact this has had on area students seeking to enhance their educations and understanding of finance and finance related tools.

      Financial Markets and the Economy Panels, Talks, and Discussions Include:

        • Keynote Speaker: Gretchen Morgenson, The Wall Street Journal: Senior Special Writer, Investigations Unit
        • A Conversation with Susan Harper, Canada’s Consul General in Miami
        • Session I – The Stock Market
          • Matt McAleer, Executive VP & Director of Equity Strategies, Cumberland Advisors
          • Richard Hoey, Senior Economic Advisor to BNY Mellon Wealth Management
          • Moderator: Maryanne Waldman, RBC, Boston, MA
        • Session II – Health Hunger and Philanthropy Judith Monroe, President and CEO, CDC Foundation Erin McLeod, CEO, Friendship Centers, Sarasota, FL Lisa Marsh Ryerson, National President, AARP. Formerly, President and CEO, Wells College, Aurora, NY. Gabriel Hament, Cumberland Advisors Moderator: Lisa Shaw, CFP, CIMA, Managing Partner, Cygnus Asset Management, LLC
        • Session III – How the World Looks to Me Leland Miller, CEO, China Beige Book International Paul O’Brien, Former Deputy Chief Investment Officer, Strategy and Planning Department, Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, ADIA. Moderator: John Authers, Author and Bloomberg Columnist

         

      • Learn More about Financial Markets and the Economy Financial Literacy Day III at USFSM.

        FEATURED INTERVIEW

        Camp Kotok – Judith Monroe from CDC Foundation & David Kotok explore Zika & the role of the foundation for the CDC, including how they help fulfill and extend the CDC’s mission and challenges. A self-described well-kept secret, the source of their funding will surprise many. Can they make the world a better place?


         


        IN THE NEWS

         

      • Sarasota Magazine – Cumberland Advisors Sets Third Annual Financial Literacy Conference for April 11
      • Quoted:Cumberland Advisors 02/06/2019
      • Sarasota Herald Tribune – ROBERT EISENBEIS: Tax the rich? Check the facts first
      • Quoted:Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D. 02/04/2019
      • Sarasota Herald Tribune – ‘US manufacturing is doing well and will continue to do well,’ Fed economist says
      • Quoted:Cumberland Advisors / Bill Strauss 02/01/2019
      • Bloomberg – Cumberland Chair David Kotok (Podcast)
      • Quoted:David R. Kotok 02/01/2019
      • Bloomberg – The Fed Is Guessing As it Plays With Fire: David Kotok (Radio)
      • Quoted:David R. Kotok 01/29/2019
      • Bloomberg TV – Cumberland’s Kotok Sees a Need to Expand Uncertainty Premium
      • Quoted:David R. Kotok 01/29/2019
      • SNN TV – USFSM hosts climate change presentation
      • Quoted:Cumberland Advisors / GIC/ USFSM Event Participants 01/25/2019
      • USFSM – Climate change summit draws crowd at USF Sarasota-Manatee
      • Quoted:Cumberland Advisors / GIC/ USFSM Event Participants 01/25/2019
      • Bradenton Herald – Red tide is always bad. Global warming is making it worse, researcher says
      • Quoted:Cumberland Advisors / GIC/ USFSM Event Participants 01/25/2019

      • IN CASE YOU MISSED IT

         

          • Tires, Chickens, and Trade – One Week Later

            Bill Witherell, Ph.D. 09/23/2009

            In the week following President Obama’s imposition of tariffs on Chinese tires, some commentators expressed confidence that the resulting trade dispute would be well-contained by the two countries and argued that the President had to throw some “red meat” to his trade union supporters. Other, including this writer, expressed concerns that this move could be damaging to the Obama Administration, costly for the US, and risk triggering more significant protectionist actions. The pro-business British magazine The Economist was particularly forceful in the cover story of its September 17 issue, entitled “Economic Vandalism.” The article begins with the following: “A protectionist move that is bad politics, bad economics, bad diplomacy and hurts America. Did we miss anything?” Some developments last week are encouraging, but others are not. Starting with the negative, as was anticipated, workers in numerous US industries also suffering from competition with the Chinese have begun to clamor for similar relief. Continued…

          • Joseph Stalin plus 75 (years) = Vladimir Putin

            David R. Kotok 08/15/2008

            Seventy-five years ago another Soviet thug by the name of Stalin chased a food supply and starved the Ukraine. He killed between 7 and 10 million people and thought nothing of it. In an ironic quirk of history, Stalin was born in Gori, Georgia. We now say “Ukraine” and not “the” Ukraine because Ukraine is supposedly an independent country. The Orange Revolution was supposed to have peacefully freed it from the Soviet sphere. So much for wishful thinking. Georgia’s experiment with western-style freedom has ended. The modern-day Stalin looked in George Bush’s eyes and seized the moment. Now Putin is ready to take Ukraine. Anyone who thinks the Georgia events were a one-off and isolated incident is overindulging on vodka. Ukrainian president Yushchenko’s attempt to limit Russian troop movements and obtain notice of them will fail. Putin will use this as the next pretext. We can learn from Georgia how brutal the Russian “ursus horribilus” can be when it chooses to send a message. It will get harder for Mr. Putin when he starts to mess with Poland, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. These are now member states of the European Union. So are others like Slovakia, Slovenia, and Czech Republic. The Russians may draw a line between the EU members and the EU nonmembers. They will use economic warfare against the former and military intervention against the latter. All this leads to more trouble. Continued…


          • ADDITIONAL RESOURCES

            Lessons from Thucydides

            Lessons from Thucydides on Parchment with Hoplites thin banner
            David R. Kotok has written the monograph pamphlet, “Lessons from Thucydides” detailing information asymmetries and their implications for investors and world affairs. The concept of a Thucydides Trap and its rise and avoidability (or lack thereof) is often debated and David makes a case for dealing with them weaving current and historical events into a comprehensive narrative.

            This free monograph also has lessons for President Donald Trump’s trade policy. Can the United States avoid a Thucydides Trap with China & Xi Jinping? Will you benefit from the Lessons of Thucydides or fall victim to a Thucydides Trap? If information is key, you now have a handbook at your fingertips. Download a copy of this monograph in either PDF (free) or Kindle ($.99) format. https://www.cumber.com/thucydides/

            Have you subscribed to our YouTube Channel?

            Thank you for engaging with us, your comments always welcome.




Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (Jan 14, 2019 – Jan 18, 2019)

Week In ReviewThe Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team. These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.

MATT MCALEER’S WEEKLY RECAP

Interesting week. In our wrap up, Cumberland Advisors’ Matt McAleer sees a lot of strength. He offers an update on International including a new position. We like the way emerging markets are acting. We keep an eye on volatility. Matt explains how markets are like snowflakes. Good trading to everybody! WATCH HERE


Look forward to extended quarterly videos for our clients that will incorporate equities and fixed-income in the coming weeks.

 

 


MARKET COMMENTARY

Sign up or see more Market Commentary

 


UPCOMING EVENTS

Climate Banner with Bob Bunting

    • Adapting to a Changing Climate

      From hurricanes to red tide and sea level rise, learn how a changing climate affects the Sarasota-Manatee region and the state of Florida. Expert speakers will discuss the challenges and impact on Florida and other coastal communities while uncovering the adaptive strategies that bring unique social and economic opportunities. The featured speaker is Bob Bunting, CEO Waterstone Strategies/Scientist/Entrepreneur – January 25, 2019 – Selby Auditorium, USFSM , 8:30 am – 3 pm. Lunch is included. Cumberland Advisors is a sponsor and Patricia Healy, CFA, from our firm will discuss “Climate, Municipal Bonds and Infrastructure” with the audience. Details Here.

      • U.S. Manufacturing in a Global Context


         

        Join us Friday, February 1, 2019 at the Sarasota Yacht Club as we welcome Bill Strauss, Senior Economist and Economic Adviser of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, for a presentation on U.S. Manufacturing in a Global Context during a special breakfast session. Bill’s chief responsibilities include analyzing the current performance of both the Midwest economy and the manufacturing sector for use in monetary policy. He organizes the Bank’s Economic Outlook Symposium and Automotive Outlook Symposium. In addition, he conducts industrial and manufacturing roundtables throughout the year. Strauss will discuss manufacturing with a view of the sector from a present, historic, and future perspective that’s accessible to members of industry and the general public. According to Bill, “The demise of manufacturing in the USA is greatly exaggerated.” Thanks to the advent of new technology and lean manufacturing processes combined with a strengthening economy, manufacturing is experiencing a resurrection of sorts. Still, despite all the good news in the manufacturing world challenges continue to exist. Bill will also discuss the interrelationship between countries, including the current hot-topics of tariffs, the possibility of a 2019 economic slowdown, how viable is the U.S. manufacturing sector, BREXIT’s effect on the world economy, and ways manufacturers can leverage the latest advancements in technology to face challenges with little disruption. This breakfast presentation may be of interest to those in manufacturing and related industries, the general public, and investors wanting information on how the expansion or contraction of U.S. manufacturing may affect their portfolios. Note: The Fed does not offer financial advice nor suggestions for investors but the information is yours to benefit from. Attendees will have access to Strauss’ Federal Reserve handouts including his long-term analysis of manufacturing that has been updated to reflect current conditions and a summary of the most recent “Economic Outlook Symposium” held on November 30, 2018. Audience questions may be submitted to Bob Eisenbeis in advance at info@cumber.com for use in the session or for possible use during interviews at the conclusion of the talk. Inquiries about the event may be made via telephone, 941-926-6279, or at the aforementioned email address. Details Here.

  • Moose on the Loose – Cruise the High Seas with John Mousseau



    If it’s always been your dream to cruise the high seas with John Mousseau, your wish has been granted! John joins Steve Forbes and other money experts for The 31st Forbes Cruise for Investors on the Crystal Symphony. They explore cities and seaside villages stretching from Rio de Janeiro to Buenos Aires, January 24 – February 3, 2019. The roster of experts that accompany John plan to impart with their co-travellers timely and practical investment strategies including discussions of U.S. policies and how they’ll affect your portfolio. To join John or learn more, visit moneyshow.com

FEATURED INTERVIEWS

Summer of 2018 at Camp Kotok – Jeremy Schwartz, Director of Research at WisdomTree, & Leland Miller, CEO China Beige Book, discuss with David Kotok their day fishing, China, tariffs, trade, trade war, and Apple’s trillion dollar valuation: will Apple be a casualty in the dust-up between China and Trump? How close were they in evaluating China?


 


IN THE NEWS

 

 

 


IN CASE YOU MISSED IT

 

  • Monetary Policy, Savings, and Markets

    David R. Kotok 12/04/2015

    From all that we observe in the United States (Federal Reserve), Europe (European Central Bank), Japan (Bank of Japan), and other jurisdictions, monetary policy now consists of three basic, interconnected variables. They are (1) central bank balance sheet size, (2) balance sheet composition and duration, and (3) policy interest rates set mostly in the short term but also possibly in the intermediate and longer term. This policy tool set is a massively different system from what was studied for decades and applied for more than half a century. Today’s world no longer reflects the monetary dynamics envisioned by Milton Friedman. Let’s look at this configuration of policy tools in the sequence outlined above and then integrate it into portfolio management issues. Continued…

  • Chicken Little

    David R. Kotok 01/16/2011

    Meredith Whitney continues to forecast large ”defaults” in the Muni sector. She is now saying that none of the 50 states will default but that 50 to 100 cities and $100s of billions of Munis will default. Chicken Little? Or Cassandra? Time will tell. In Muniland, mutual fund redemptions are driving fund managers to liquidate tax-free Muni bond positions into a market with falling prices. Pricing references for bonds are used to reprice the estimated market value of all bonds. Very few Munis trade every day. The Muni sector is not like the stock market; pricing is not transparent. So unsophisticated investors watch their prices seem to fall and they hear the media hype and they panic. That triggers more mutual fund redemptions and the cycle repeats itself. Right now, there are Munis backed by federally guaranteed payment streams that are trading at yields above their US Treasury counterparts. The Munis are tax-free. The treasuries referenced are taxable. Clearly, this is not about credit risk or default risk. We are talking about bonds that have the US government as the source of credit on both sides of the comparisons. Clearly, something else is going on. Continued…


ADDITIONAL RESOURCES

Lessons from Thucydides

Lessons from Thucydides on Parchment with Hoplites thin banner
David R. Kotok has written the monograph pamphlet, “Lessons from Thucydides” detailing information asymmetries and their implications for investors and world affairs. The concept of a Thucydides Trap and its rise and avoidability (or lack thereof) is often debated and David makes a case for dealing with them weaving current and historical events into a comprehensive narrative.

This free monograph also has lessons for President Donald Trump’s trade policy. Can the United States avoid a Thucydides Trap with China & Xi Jinping? Will you benefit from the Lessons of Thucydides or fall victim to a Thucydides Trap? If information is key, you now have a handbook at your fingertips. Download a copy of this monograph in either PDF (free) or Kindle ($.99) format. https://www.cumber.com/thucydides/

Have you subscribed to our YouTube Channel?

Thank you for engaging with us, your comments always welcome.




Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (Jan 07, 2019 – Jan 11, 2019)

Week In ReviewThe Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team. These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.

MATT MCALEER’S WEEKLY RECAP

In this week’s wrap up by Cumberland Advisors’ Matt McAleer, we give a quick summary of Muni Bonds with Matt passing along information from CEO & Head of Fixed Income, John Mousseau. On the Equities side, “Higher lows are what we’re looking for in repairing of a market,” says Matt. How do we see developed markets? And how are we trading in our different strategies? Tune in and watch. Also, a quick note for our clients about how you can see our videos. WATCH HERE

Look forward to extended quarterly videos for our clients that will incorporate equities and fixed-income in the coming weeks.


MARKET COMMENTARY

Sign up or see more Market Commentary

 


UPCOMING EVENTS

Climate Banner with Bob Bunting

    • Adapting to a Changing Climate

      From hurricanes to red tide and sea level rise, learn how a changing climate affects the Sarasota-Manatee region and the state of Florida. Expert speakers will discuss the challenges and impact on Florida and other coastal communities while uncovering the adaptive strategies that bring unique social and economic opportunities. The featured speaker is Bob Bunting, CEO Waterstone Strategies/Scientist/Entrepreneur – January 25, 2019 – Selby Auditorium, USFSM , 8:30 am – 3 pm. Lunch is included. Cumberland Advisors is a sponsor and Patricia Healy, CFA, from our firm will discuss “Climate, Municipal Bonds and Infrastructure” with the audience. Details Here.

      Event - U.S. Manufacturing in a Global Context with Bill Strauss (GIC, FPA Suncoast & Cumberland Advisors) Small Banner

  • U.S. Manufacturing in a Global Context

    Save the Date! GIC is returning to Sarasota, FL on Friday, February 1, 2019 to partner with the Financial Planning Associates of the Suncoast and Cumberland Advisors. Join us at the Sarasota Yacht Club as we welcome Bill Strauss, Senior Economist and Economic Adviser of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, for a presentation on U.S. Manufacturing in a Global Context. Strauss is a senior economist and economic adviser in the economic research department at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, which he joined in 1982. His chief responsibilities include analyzing the current performance of both the Midwest economy and the manufacturing sector for use in monetary policy. Details Here.

 

  • Moose on the Loose – Cruise the High Seas with John Mousseau


    If it’s always been your dream to cruise the high seas with John Mousseau, your wish has been granted! John joins Steve Forbes and other money experts for The 31st Forbes Cruise for Investors on the Crystal Symphony. They explore cities and seaside villages stretching from Rio de Janeiro to Buenos Aires, January 24 – February 3, 2019. The roster of experts that accompany John plan to impart with their co-travellers timely and practical investment strategies including discussions of U.S. policies and how they’ll affect your portfolio. To join John or learn more, visit moneyshow.com


FEATURED INTERVIEWS

We rewind to the summer of 2018 at Camp Kotok – David Kotok leads a conversation with Stuart Hoffman, SVP & Sr. Economic Advisor at PNC, & Barry Ritholtz, Chairman & CIO at Ritholtz Wealth Management. They discuss Apple’s ascension as a One Trillion Dollar Company, what impact will trade war, China, & Trump have on Apple’s operations, and will the trade war and any accompanying inflation trigger a response from the Fed that could bring about recession? Also, where did they learn their outdoor and fishing skills??? Hmmmm….


IN THE NEWS


 IN CASE YOU MISSED IT

 

Drachma!

David R. Kotok 05/29/2012
The drachma, the Greek currency, is over 3000 years old. It was the most widely circulated coin in the world prior to the time of Alexander the Great. Readers may enjoy a few minutes of study about Alexander the Great. His Macedonian army conquered Persia and much of the rest of the ancient world. His education came from Aristotle, his tutor up to the age of 16. He changed the political geography of the Balkans and the Mediterranean. See a few notes at the very end of this commentary. Back to the drachma. Since its reintroduction in 1832, all modern forms of the drachma have ended badly. The single exception was the exchange of the drachma for the euro in 2001. That chapter of Greek history is being rewritten now. Continued…

East Asian Kerfuffle

David R. Kotok 12/08/2013
Ieodo is a manmade platform affixed to an undersea rock (named Socotra) in the Yellow Sea. For a map and an aerial photo see Cumberland’s website. The platform is Korean, and the facility is an oceanographic research station. South Korea built the platform and claims jurisdiction, but China claims jurisdiction, too. International maritime law stipulates that undersea structures are not nationally territorial while above-sea-level structures are subject to claims. Ieodo is situated in the area where South Korea, China, and Japan are engaged in asserting claims over Air Defense Identification Zones (ADIZ). The airspace zones claimed by the three countries overlap. And now there is an occasional scrambling of military aircraft when planes enter the zones. Civilian aircraft and unarmed military or research aircraft face the choice of lengthening routes to bypass the zones or acknowledging them by advance filing of flight plans with the respective governments. And those governments face similar choices. Do they respect the zone of another country with which they disagree and file their own flight plans? Or do they ignore the claim of another country, which they contest, and thereby add to the risk of confrontation? Thus we have a geopolitical test of wills at work in East Asia. The initial US response to competing claims was to support Japan and fly two B-52s into the zone the Chinese claim, without notifying China. That move ratcheted up the Chinese response, and the Chinese scrambled fighter escorts. The incident triggered more responses and drew Korea into the kerfuffle. Continued…


ADDITIONAL RESOURCES

Lessons from Thucydides

Lessons from Thucydides on Parchment with Hoplites thin banner
David R. Kotok has written the monograph pamphlet, “Lessons from Thucydides” detailing information asymmetries and their implications for investors and world affairs. The concept of a Thucydides Trap and its rise and avoidability (or lack thereof) is often debated and David makes a case for dealing with them weaving current and historical events into a comprehensive narrative.

This free monograph also has lessons for President Donald Trump’s trade policy. Can the United States avoid a Thucydides Trap with China & Xi Jinping? Will you benefit from the Lessons of Thucydides or fall victim to a Thucydides Trap? If information is key, you now have a handbook at your fingertips. Download a copy of this monograph in either PDF (free) or Kindle ($.99) format. https://www.cumber.com/thucydides/

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