Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (Jan 14, 2019 – Jan 18, 2019)

Week In ReviewThe Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team. These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.

MATT MCALEER’S WEEKLY RECAP

Interesting week. In our wrap up, Cumberland Advisors’ Matt McAleer sees a lot of strength. He offers an update on International including a new position. We like the way emerging markets are acting. We keep an eye on volatility. Matt explains how markets are like snowflakes. Good trading to everybody! WATCH HERE


Look forward to extended quarterly videos for our clients that will incorporate equities and fixed-income in the coming weeks.

 

 


MARKET COMMENTARY

Sign up or see more Market Commentary

 


UPCOMING EVENTS

Climate Banner with Bob Bunting

    • Adapting to a Changing Climate

      From hurricanes to red tide and sea level rise, learn how a changing climate affects the Sarasota-Manatee region and the state of Florida. Expert speakers will discuss the challenges and impact on Florida and other coastal communities while uncovering the adaptive strategies that bring unique social and economic opportunities. The featured speaker is Bob Bunting, CEO Waterstone Strategies/Scientist/Entrepreneur – January 25, 2019 – Selby Auditorium, USFSM , 8:30 am – 3 pm. Lunch is included. Cumberland Advisors is a sponsor and Patricia Healy, CFA, from our firm will discuss “Climate, Municipal Bonds and Infrastructure” with the audience. Details Here.

      • U.S. Manufacturing in a Global Context


         

        Join us Friday, February 1, 2019 at the Sarasota Yacht Club as we welcome Bill Strauss, Senior Economist and Economic Adviser of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, for a presentation on U.S. Manufacturing in a Global Context during a special breakfast session. Bill’s chief responsibilities include analyzing the current performance of both the Midwest economy and the manufacturing sector for use in monetary policy. He organizes the Bank’s Economic Outlook Symposium and Automotive Outlook Symposium. In addition, he conducts industrial and manufacturing roundtables throughout the year. Strauss will discuss manufacturing with a view of the sector from a present, historic, and future perspective that’s accessible to members of industry and the general public. According to Bill, “The demise of manufacturing in the USA is greatly exaggerated.” Thanks to the advent of new technology and lean manufacturing processes combined with a strengthening economy, manufacturing is experiencing a resurrection of sorts. Still, despite all the good news in the manufacturing world challenges continue to exist. Bill will also discuss the interrelationship between countries, including the current hot-topics of tariffs, the possibility of a 2019 economic slowdown, how viable is the U.S. manufacturing sector, BREXIT’s effect on the world economy, and ways manufacturers can leverage the latest advancements in technology to face challenges with little disruption. This breakfast presentation may be of interest to those in manufacturing and related industries, the general public, and investors wanting information on how the expansion or contraction of U.S. manufacturing may affect their portfolios. Note: The Fed does not offer financial advice nor suggestions for investors but the information is yours to benefit from. Attendees will have access to Strauss’ Federal Reserve handouts including his long-term analysis of manufacturing that has been updated to reflect current conditions and a summary of the most recent “Economic Outlook Symposium” held on November 30, 2018. Audience questions may be submitted to Bob Eisenbeis in advance at info@cumber.com for use in the session or for possible use during interviews at the conclusion of the talk. Inquiries about the event may be made via telephone, 941-926-6279, or at the aforementioned email address. Details Here.

  • Moose on the Loose – Cruise the High Seas with John Mousseau



    If it’s always been your dream to cruise the high seas with John Mousseau, your wish has been granted! John joins Steve Forbes and other money experts for The 31st Forbes Cruise for Investors on the Crystal Symphony. They explore cities and seaside villages stretching from Rio de Janeiro to Buenos Aires, January 24 – February 3, 2019. The roster of experts that accompany John plan to impart with their co-travellers timely and practical investment strategies including discussions of U.S. policies and how they’ll affect your portfolio. To join John or learn more, visit moneyshow.com

FEATURED INTERVIEWS

Summer of 2018 at Camp Kotok – Jeremy Schwartz, Director of Research at WisdomTree, & Leland Miller, CEO China Beige Book, discuss with David Kotok their day fishing, China, tariffs, trade, trade war, and Apple’s trillion dollar valuation: will Apple be a casualty in the dust-up between China and Trump? How close were they in evaluating China?


 


IN THE NEWS

 

 

 


IN CASE YOU MISSED IT

 

  • Monetary Policy, Savings, and Markets

    David R. Kotok 12/04/2015

    From all that we observe in the United States (Federal Reserve), Europe (European Central Bank), Japan (Bank of Japan), and other jurisdictions, monetary policy now consists of three basic, interconnected variables. They are (1) central bank balance sheet size, (2) balance sheet composition and duration, and (3) policy interest rates set mostly in the short term but also possibly in the intermediate and longer term. This policy tool set is a massively different system from what was studied for decades and applied for more than half a century. Today’s world no longer reflects the monetary dynamics envisioned by Milton Friedman. Let’s look at this configuration of policy tools in the sequence outlined above and then integrate it into portfolio management issues. Continued…

  • Chicken Little

    David R. Kotok 01/16/2011

    Meredith Whitney continues to forecast large ”defaults” in the Muni sector. She is now saying that none of the 50 states will default but that 50 to 100 cities and $100s of billions of Munis will default. Chicken Little? Or Cassandra? Time will tell. In Muniland, mutual fund redemptions are driving fund managers to liquidate tax-free Muni bond positions into a market with falling prices. Pricing references for bonds are used to reprice the estimated market value of all bonds. Very few Munis trade every day. The Muni sector is not like the stock market; pricing is not transparent. So unsophisticated investors watch their prices seem to fall and they hear the media hype and they panic. That triggers more mutual fund redemptions and the cycle repeats itself. Right now, there are Munis backed by federally guaranteed payment streams that are trading at yields above their US Treasury counterparts. The Munis are tax-free. The treasuries referenced are taxable. Clearly, this is not about credit risk or default risk. We are talking about bonds that have the US government as the source of credit on both sides of the comparisons. Clearly, something else is going on. Continued…


ADDITIONAL RESOURCES

Lessons from Thucydides

Lessons from Thucydides on Parchment with Hoplites thin banner
David R. Kotok has written the monograph pamphlet, “Lessons from Thucydides” detailing information asymmetries and their implications for investors and world affairs. The concept of a Thucydides Trap and its rise and avoidability (or lack thereof) is often debated and David makes a case for dealing with them weaving current and historical events into a comprehensive narrative.

This free monograph also has lessons for President Donald Trump’s trade policy. Can the United States avoid a Thucydides Trap with China & Xi Jinping? Will you benefit from the Lessons of Thucydides or fall victim to a Thucydides Trap? If information is key, you now have a handbook at your fingertips. Download a copy of this monograph in either PDF (free) or Kindle ($.99) format. https://www.cumber.com/thucydides/

Have you subscribed to our YouTube Channel?

Thank you for engaging with us, your comments always welcome.




Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (Jan 07, 2019 – Jan 11, 2019)

Week In ReviewThe Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team. These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.

MATT MCALEER’S WEEKLY RECAP

In this week’s wrap up by Cumberland Advisors’ Matt McAleer, we give a quick summary of Muni Bonds with Matt passing along information from CEO & Head of Fixed Income, John Mousseau. On the Equities side, “Higher lows are what we’re looking for in repairing of a market,” says Matt. How do we see developed markets? And how are we trading in our different strategies? Tune in and watch. Also, a quick note for our clients about how you can see our videos. WATCH HERE

Look forward to extended quarterly videos for our clients that will incorporate equities and fixed-income in the coming weeks.


MARKET COMMENTARY

Sign up or see more Market Commentary

 


UPCOMING EVENTS

Climate Banner with Bob Bunting

    • Adapting to a Changing Climate

      From hurricanes to red tide and sea level rise, learn how a changing climate affects the Sarasota-Manatee region and the state of Florida. Expert speakers will discuss the challenges and impact on Florida and other coastal communities while uncovering the adaptive strategies that bring unique social and economic opportunities. The featured speaker is Bob Bunting, CEO Waterstone Strategies/Scientist/Entrepreneur – January 25, 2019 – Selby Auditorium, USFSM , 8:30 am – 3 pm. Lunch is included. Cumberland Advisors is a sponsor and Patricia Healy, CFA, from our firm will discuss “Climate, Municipal Bonds and Infrastructure” with the audience. Details Here.

      Event - U.S. Manufacturing in a Global Context with Bill Strauss (GIC, FPA Suncoast & Cumberland Advisors) Small Banner

  • U.S. Manufacturing in a Global Context

    Save the Date! GIC is returning to Sarasota, FL on Friday, February 1, 2019 to partner with the Financial Planning Associates of the Suncoast and Cumberland Advisors. Join us at the Sarasota Yacht Club as we welcome Bill Strauss, Senior Economist and Economic Adviser of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, for a presentation on U.S. Manufacturing in a Global Context. Strauss is a senior economist and economic adviser in the economic research department at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, which he joined in 1982. His chief responsibilities include analyzing the current performance of both the Midwest economy and the manufacturing sector for use in monetary policy. Details Here.

 

  • Moose on the Loose – Cruise the High Seas with John Mousseau


    If it’s always been your dream to cruise the high seas with John Mousseau, your wish has been granted! John joins Steve Forbes and other money experts for The 31st Forbes Cruise for Investors on the Crystal Symphony. They explore cities and seaside villages stretching from Rio de Janeiro to Buenos Aires, January 24 – February 3, 2019. The roster of experts that accompany John plan to impart with their co-travellers timely and practical investment strategies including discussions of U.S. policies and how they’ll affect your portfolio. To join John or learn more, visit moneyshow.com


FEATURED INTERVIEWS

We rewind to the summer of 2018 at Camp Kotok – David Kotok leads a conversation with Stuart Hoffman, SVP & Sr. Economic Advisor at PNC, & Barry Ritholtz, Chairman & CIO at Ritholtz Wealth Management. They discuss Apple’s ascension as a One Trillion Dollar Company, what impact will trade war, China, & Trump have on Apple’s operations, and will the trade war and any accompanying inflation trigger a response from the Fed that could bring about recession? Also, where did they learn their outdoor and fishing skills??? Hmmmm….


IN THE NEWS


 IN CASE YOU MISSED IT

 

Drachma!

David R. Kotok 05/29/2012
The drachma, the Greek currency, is over 3000 years old. It was the most widely circulated coin in the world prior to the time of Alexander the Great. Readers may enjoy a few minutes of study about Alexander the Great. His Macedonian army conquered Persia and much of the rest of the ancient world. His education came from Aristotle, his tutor up to the age of 16. He changed the political geography of the Balkans and the Mediterranean. See a few notes at the very end of this commentary. Back to the drachma. Since its reintroduction in 1832, all modern forms of the drachma have ended badly. The single exception was the exchange of the drachma for the euro in 2001. That chapter of Greek history is being rewritten now. Continued…

East Asian Kerfuffle

David R. Kotok 12/08/2013
Ieodo is a manmade platform affixed to an undersea rock (named Socotra) in the Yellow Sea. For a map and an aerial photo see Cumberland’s website. The platform is Korean, and the facility is an oceanographic research station. South Korea built the platform and claims jurisdiction, but China claims jurisdiction, too. International maritime law stipulates that undersea structures are not nationally territorial while above-sea-level structures are subject to claims. Ieodo is situated in the area where South Korea, China, and Japan are engaged in asserting claims over Air Defense Identification Zones (ADIZ). The airspace zones claimed by the three countries overlap. And now there is an occasional scrambling of military aircraft when planes enter the zones. Civilian aircraft and unarmed military or research aircraft face the choice of lengthening routes to bypass the zones or acknowledging them by advance filing of flight plans with the respective governments. And those governments face similar choices. Do they respect the zone of another country with which they disagree and file their own flight plans? Or do they ignore the claim of another country, which they contest, and thereby add to the risk of confrontation? Thus we have a geopolitical test of wills at work in East Asia. The initial US response to competing claims was to support Japan and fly two B-52s into the zone the Chinese claim, without notifying China. That move ratcheted up the Chinese response, and the Chinese scrambled fighter escorts. The incident triggered more responses and drew Korea into the kerfuffle. Continued…


ADDITIONAL RESOURCES

Lessons from Thucydides

Lessons from Thucydides on Parchment with Hoplites thin banner
David R. Kotok has written the monograph pamphlet, “Lessons from Thucydides” detailing information asymmetries and their implications for investors and world affairs. The concept of a Thucydides Trap and its rise and avoidability (or lack thereof) is often debated and David makes a case for dealing with them weaving current and historical events into a comprehensive narrative.

This free monograph also has lessons for President Donald Trump’s trade policy. Can the United States avoid a Thucydides Trap with China & Xi Jinping? Will you benefit from the Lessons of Thucydides or fall victim to a Thucydides Trap? If information is key, you now have a handbook at your fingertips. Download a copy of this monograph in either PDF (free) or Kindle ($.99) format. https://www.cumber.com/thucydides/

Have you subscribed to our YouTube Channel?

Thank you for engaging with us, your comments always welcome.




Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (Dec 17, 2018 – Dec 21, 2018)

Week In Review

The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team. These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.

MATT MCALEER’S WEEKLY RECAP

Matt talks about trading and pricing in this week’s review. Do we think the market is worth 7% less than when it started on Monday? David Kotok kicks things off with some history of the market going back to 69/70 and offers some projections going forward. WATCH HERE.

 

 

 

 

 

MARKET COMMENTARY

Sign up or see more Market Commentary

FEATURED INTERVIEW

Fair For Mnuchin To Pinpoint Algo-Trading: Eisenbeis (Radio) – Bloomberg Markets

 

Bloomberg Markets – Bob Eisenbeis, Vice Chairman and Chief Monetary Economist at Cumberland Advisors, and Former Director of Research at the Atlanta Fed, on the FOMC meeting and markets. Hosted by Pimm Foxx and Lisa Ambramowicz. Running time 08:02
 

Listen here: https://www.cumber.com/fair-for-mnuchin-to-pinpoint-algo-trading-eisenbeis-radio-bloomberg-markets/

IN THE NEWS

Quoted:David R. Kotok 12/17/2018


Painting by Cumberland Advisors’ Chief Global Economist, William Witherell

IN CASE YOU MISSED IT

    • Surplus, Interest, Debt: Personal Finance in a Nutshell

      Michael McNiven, Ph.D. 10/26/2017

      Cumberland Advisors in partnership with the University of South Florida, Sarasota-Manatee (USFSM) and the Global Interdependence Center (GIC), with support from the Financial Planners Association (FPA), are proud to announce the 3rd annual Financial Literacy Day which will be held in Sarasota, FL at USFSM on April 11, 2019. Several nationally recognized speakers are on the agenda. See the USF Sarasota-Manatee website for further information about our upcoming event, “Financial Markets and the Economy – Financial Literacy Day III.” What follows here is a basic guide for individuals regarding their personal approach to debt management and wealth creation. U.S. household consumer debt has reached an all-time high of almost $13 trillion. This includes student loans, auto loans, credit cards, and mortgages/home equity lines of credit. Many of our friends and neighbors of all socioeconomic classes have not been exposed enough to fundamental financial principles. Feel free to share it with others in your communities who may benefit from a refresher on these basic points. An easy to share and downloadable PDF version of this piece is available too. Continued…

  • Kilimanjaro

    David R. Kotok 06/07/2017

    This is the end of my fourth safari. South Africa and Zambia now recede into memory as a fresh natural mosaic of Tanzania and Kenya add a layer to the blending of remarkable African images. Amsterdam to Arusha to start. Coffee fresh and strong. Then off. Tarangire, Lake Manyara, Ngorongoro, Serengeti, Masai Mara, and other names are exquisite, exotic labels that still cannot wholly capture the vividness of the images and memories. Somehow this fourth time, there is still the excitement and wonder of my first time in South Africa, many years ago. In the bush there is an expanse of separation from the turmoil of global politics, terrorism and markets. Roles and patterns in the bush are understood. Carnivores and herbivores know their places and methods in the pursuit of life and of death. Suicide bombers killing children are not part of the bush’s ecosystem. Hemingway’s greatness with his pen was to blend powerful opposites in his depiction of the human drama. Hence we started this commentary with his movingly descriptive metaphor of Harry’s death. In “Snows,” Hemingway’s writing alternately flows between retrospective stream of consciousness and the present, between the internal and private place that is uniquely known only to each of us and the public behavior that may or may not be under our control. That has also been the tenor of the conversation we have enjoyed privately on this trip, contrasted with the interactions and observations made during two weeks on three continents while interfacing with the diversity of the human form and spirit. Yes, we followed markets daily. And, yes, we watched developments in Washington and Pyongyang and Beijing and Jerusalem and London and elsewhere. And, yes, we were in frequent contact with our colleagues and office. Such is travel in today’s world. Even in the bush there is a tower and a signal. And, for us, there is a personal and professional curiosity that requires our always being current. There is something else. Continued…

UPCOMING EVENTS

    • Adapting to a Changing Climate

      From hurricanes to red tide and sea level rise, learn how a changing climate affects the Sarasota-Manatee region and the state of Florida. Expert speakers will discuss the challenges and impact on Florida and other coastal communities while uncovering the adaptive strategies that bring unique social and economic opportunities. The featured speaker is Bob Bunting, CEO Waterstone Strategies/Scientist/Entrepreneur – January 25, 2019 – Selby Auditorium, USFSM , 8:30 am – 3 pm. Lunch is included. Cumberland Advisors is a sponsor and Patricia Healy, CFA, from our firm will discuss “Climate, Municipal Bonds and Infrastructure” with the audience. Details Here.

  • U.S. Manufacturing in a Global Context

    Save the Date! GIC is returning to Sarasota, FL on Friday, February 1, 2019 to partner with the Financial Planning Associates of the Suncoast and Cumberland Advisors. Join us at the Sarasota Yacht Club as we welcome Bill Strauss, Senior Economist and Economic Adviser of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, for a presentation on U.S. Manufacturing in a Global Context. Strauss is a senior economist and economic adviser in the economic research department at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, which he joined in 1982. His chief responsibilities include analyzing the current performance of both the Midwest economy and the manufacturing sector for use in monetary policy. Details Here.

ADDITIONAL RESOURCES

Lessons from Thucydides

David R. Kotok has written the monograph pamphlet, “Lessons from Thucydides” detailing information asymmetries and their implications for investors and world affairs. The concept of a Thucydides Trap and its rise and avoidability (or lack thereof) is often debated and David makes a case for dealing with them weaving current and historical events into a comprehensive narrative.

Thucydides-Trap

This free monograph also has lessons for President Donald Trump’s trade policy. Can the United States avoid a Thucydides Trap with China & Xi Jinping? Will you benefit from the Lessons of Thucydides or fall victim to a Thucydides Trap? If information is key, you now have a handbook at your fingertips. Download a copy of this monograph in either PDF (free) or Kindle ($.99) format. https://www.cumber.com/thucydides/


Have you subscribed to our YouTube Channel? 

Thank you for engaging with us, your comments always welcome.




Sarasota analysts surveying stock-market damage

Excerpt from Sarasota analysts surveying stock-market damage

By John Hielscher

Posted Dec 18, 2018 at 5:05 PM

Matt McAleer - The key is trying to avoid emotional moves in the market.

But while stocks look like they are stumbling to their first yearly loss since 2015, a number of experts are forecasting modestly better returns in the coming year.

A solid allocation plan should ease investors look through the volatility, said Matt McAleer, executive vice president and director of equity strategies at Cumberland Advisors in Sarasota, which has more than $3 billion under management.

“If you’re feeling stressed by the markets, there is nothing wrong with raising a little cash and selling down to your sleeping level,” McAleer said. “The key is trying to avoid emotional moves in the market.”

 Continued…

Read more at the Sarasota Herald Tribune


NOTE: Links to other websites or electronic media controlled or offered by Third-Parties (non-affiliates of Cumberland Advisors) are provided only as a reference and courtesy to our users. Cumberland Advisors has no control over such websites, does not recommend or endorse any opinions, ideas, products, information, or content of such sites, and makes no warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, reliability or suitability of their content. Cumberland Advisors hereby disclaims liability for any information, materials, products or services posted or offered at any of the Third-Party websites. The Third-Party may have a privacy and/or security policy different from that of Cumberland Advisors. Therefore, please refer to the specific privacy and security policies of the Third-Party when accessing their websites.




Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (Nov 26, 2018 – Nov 30, 2018)

The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team. These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.

Week In Review

MATT MCALEER’S WEEKLY RECAP

Matt gives us the latest from the Equity Desk In this Week In Review for November 26-30, 2018. Our Director of Equity Strategies for Cumberland Advisors tells you how he’s trading and shares some forward thinking. WATCH HERE.

Cumberland-Advisors-Matt-McAleer-Market-Position-Broadly


 

MARKET COMMENTARY

 

Sign up or see more Market Commentary

 


FEATURED VIDEO


John Mousseau joins Matt McAleer this week for a discussion about his week in bonds.

The video is available here.


IN THE NEWS

 

 

 

 


IN CASE YOU MISSED IT

 

    • Bitcoin price WARNING: HILARIOUS moment investor compares cryptocurrency to CHOCOLATE COIN

      David Kotok 1/04/2018

      BITCOIN is as tangible as a chocolate coin a top investor has warned in a hilarious quip about the cryptocurrency. Appearing on Bloomberg, Mr Kotok offered the hosts a “New Year’s gift” – a chocolate coin shaped like a bitcoin. Handing out the sweet treat, he said: “I brought proof that bitcoin can be tangible, here’s a New Year’s gift for each of you.” The delighted presenters asked if the gift was chocolate. Mr Kotok said that the chocolate version of the cryptocurrency had more value than the real thing. He said: “That is a chocolate covered bitcoin, that is the most tangible value you will see in bitcoin.”Continued…

 

  • Europe’s Migration Crisis

    Bill Witherell 12/15/2015

    A European perspective on the complex societal challenges now confronting Europe as it seeks to address a humanitarian crisis and heightened security risks. A reader shares, “In every institution, including education, we take for granted that men and women will mix and work together. My friends’ children are off dating each other and staying over at each other’s houses. Think about this very specifically and you see that the whole basis of social organization will come under pressure if migration continues, or is allowed to continue, on the scale which seems likely. Think about business life, and you’ll see the same thing. The questions to ask are these: How many will come, or try to come, in the coming years? How will they try to live when they get here? What will the reaction of Europeans be? How will all this affect enterprise, investment, and credit ratings?” Continued…

 

 


 

UPCOMING EVENTS

 

    • Adapting to a Changing Climate

      From hurricanes to red tide and sea level rise, learn how a changing climate affects the Sarasota-Manatee region and the state of Florida. Expert speakers will discuss the challenges and impact on Florida and other coastal communities while uncovering the adaptive strategies that bring unique social and economic opportunities. The featured speaker is Bob Bunting, CEO Waterstone Strategies/Scientist/Entrepreneur – January 25, 2019 – Selby Auditorium, USFSM , 8:30 am – 3 pm. Lunch is included. Cumberland Advisors is a sponsor and Patricia Healy, CFA, from our firm will discuss “Climate, Municipal Bonds and Infrastructure” with the audience. Details Here.

 

  • U.S. Manufacturing in a Global Context

    Save the Date! GIC is returning to Sarasota, FL on Friday, February 1, 2019 to partner with the Financial Planning Associates of the Suncoast and Cumberland Advisors. Join us at the Sarasota Yacht Club as we welcome Bill Strauss, Senior Economist and Economic Adviser of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, for a presentation on U.S. Manufacturing in a Global Context. Strauss is a senior economist and economic adviser in the economic research department at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, which he joined in 1982. His chief responsibilities include analyzing the current performance of both the Midwest economy and the manufacturing sector for use in monetary policy. Details Here.

 


Have you subscribed to our YouTube Channel?

Thank you for engaging with us, your comments always welcome.

Cumberland Advisors
Weekly Update
Email | About


Links to other websites or electronic media controlled or offered by Third-Parties (non-affiliates of Cumberland Advisors) are provided only as a reference and courtesy to our users. Cumberland Advisors has no control over such websites, does not recommend or endorse any opinions, ideas, products, information, or content of such sites, and makes no warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, reliability or suitability of their content. Cumberland Advisors hereby disclaims liability for any information, materials, products or services posted or offered at any of the Third-Party websites. The Third-Party may have a privacy and/or security policy different from that of Cumberland Advisors. Therefore, please refer to the specific privacy and security policies of the Third-Party when accessing their websites.

Sign up for our FREE Cumberland Market Commentaries

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.




Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (Nov 19, 2018 – Nov 23, 2018)

The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team. These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.

 

MATT MCALEER’S WEEKLY RECAP

Matt still says we have to “Embrace the Grind!” In this Week In Review for November 19-23, 2018, our Director of Equity Strategies for Cumberland Advisors shares his thoughts on the market’s gyrations and some of what guides him in his decision making. “Be very careful of anybody who appears to have a market all figured out. We know if somebody is too sure of their opinion, they’re going to get carried out in a box,” says McAleer. WATCH HERE.

 

Cumberland-Advisors-Matt-McAleer-Update-November-09-2018-Video

 

MARKET COMMENTARY

 

Sign up or see more Market Commentary

 


FEATURED VIDEO

Market Lacks Bear Market Recession Forecasting Element, Kotok Says.

 

Cumberland-Advisors-David-Kotok-Trade-Update-November-15-2018

David Kotok, chairman and chief investment officer at Cumberland Advisors, examines the tech stock selloff and what it means to the broader market. He speaks on “Bloomberg Daybreak: Americas” with hosts Alix Steel and Jason Kelly.

The video is available here.


 

IN THE NEWS

 

 

 

 

 


 

IN CASE YOU MISSED IT

 

    • In South America: Mendacity versus Perspicacity

      David Kotok 6/01/2016

      We characterize the South American disease as the frequently reasserted gravitational pull of mendacity when perspicacity is required instead to power a social, political, and economic liftoff. We ask, can perspicacity prevail over mendacity in South (or Central, for that matter) America? Over a century of history suggests it cannot. Country after country has fallen victim to dictatorship, military coups, a culture of corruption, and governments that oppress. That has been the persistent theme since the first Spanish conquests, Portuguese colonization, French exploitation, and subsequent independence. Heroic figures like Simón Bolívar and José de San Martín attempted liberation but failed to create a sustainable model. They did help create national identities for countries and regions that now bear their names. They sponsored perspicacity. Continued…

 


 

UPCOMING EVENTS

 

  • U.S. Manufacturing in a Global Context

    Save the Date! GIC is returning to Sarasota, FL on Friday, February 1, 2019 to partner with the Financial Planning Associates of the Suncoast and Cumberland Advisors. Join us at the Sarasota Yacht Club as we welcome Bill Strauss, Senior Economist and Economic Adviser of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, for a presentation on U.S. Manufacturing in a Global Context. Strauss is a senior economist and economic adviser in the economic research department at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, which he joined in 1982. His chief responsibilities include analyzing the current performance of both the Midwest economy and the manufacturing sector for use in monetary policy.Details Here.

Have you subscribed to our YouTube Channel?

Thank you for engaging with us, your comments always welcome.

 


Links to other websites or electronic media controlled or offered by Third-Parties (non-affiliates of Cumberland Advisors) are provided only as a reference and courtesy to our users. Cumberland Advisors has no control over such websites, does not recommend or endorse any opinions, ideas, products, information, or content of such sites, and makes no warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, reliability or suitability of their content. Cumberland Advisors hereby disclaims liability for any information, materials, products or services posted or offered at any of the Third-Party websites. The Third-Party may have a privacy and/or security policy different from that of Cumberland Advisors. Therefore, please refer to the specific privacy and security policies of the Third-Party when accessing their websites.

Sign up for our FREE Cumberland Market Commentaries

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.




Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (Nov 12, 2018 – Nov 16, 2018)

Cumberland Advisors Week in Review

The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team. These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.

MATT MCALEER’S WEEKLY RECAP

Taking a look at Global Markets. “Embrace the Grind!” The day to day has had some whip to it. What prices looked good? Where did we put cash to work? How about energy? We have an update for you about International and Emerging Markets. WATCH HERE.

 

Cumberland-Advisors-Matt-McAleer-Update-November-09-2018-Video

 

MARKET COMMENTARY

Sign up or see more Market Commentary


FEATURED VIDEO

David Kotok shares the latest on Trump, the Trade War with China, & Trade Relations.

Cumberland-Advisors-David-Kotok-Trade-Update-November-15-2018

David Kotok contends that the China-US Trade War policy is failing and that it can be reversed. He goes on to say that Trump could achieve a truce with Xi Jinping and that the world and markets will respond positively and businesses will then be able to plan capital expenditures, their expansion, and growth with some certainty. He further states that chaos coming out of Washington, which is seeded in a failing trade war policy, is causing our financial markets to be punished and it’s self-inflicted wounds. Watch this brief clip to see David enumerate in detail.

The video is available here.


IN THE NEWS

 

 


IN CASE YOU MISSED IT

    • Mexico and Trade

      Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D. 2/07/2017

      With Trump, Trade, China, BREXIT, and NAFTA in the headlines, we revisit this commentary from Feb 2017. The state of US trade with Mexico is on the front page as policy makers attempt to stem the outflow of firms, jobs, and goods production from the United States. To put the issues in perspective, it is first helpful to have some facts on US trade in general and trade with Mexico in particular. By comparison with many countries, the US economy is still dominated by domestic production and consumption. In the euro area, for example, trade amounts to about 69% of GDP, and in the UK it is about 38%. In the US economy, by contrast, exports amounts to less than 16% of GDP, and imports are only about 12.5% as of yearend 2015. Our trade deficit in goods and services is slightly less than 3% of GDP in total, down from a peak in 2005 of slightly more than 5%. Continued…

 

  • Bursting Bitcoin Bubble?

    David R. Kotok 7/06/2018

    We have been asked again about Bitcoin and “bubbles” following the recent gyrations and the plunge. “Should I buy it?” asked a reader. First, we offer the required disclosure: We don’t own any cryptocurrency in any Cumberland managed account. And we don’t own any derivative or other form of crypto. We have avoided the group. We don’t see crypto as a deep-enough and mature-enough assemblage of tokens to qualify as an asset class – yet. That assessment may change at some point but not likely soon. Nick Colas and Jessica Rabe have been tracking Bitcoin for a while. They write about it from time to time. “We’ve been tracking Bitcoin wallet growth and Google search term volumes… as the carnage has unfolded. Our repeated message in these pages: the former is growing only slowly, and the latter is in outright decline. Bitcoin is ultimately a technology, and without incremental adoption growth it has a tough row to hoe.” Later in their research they add the following warning: “To be clear: we’re not calling a bottom on Bitcoin, but its complete decoupling from stocks may be one sign of a washout [s]ince it now resembles the time before anyone but computer nerds really cared about it.” Continued…

Have you subscribed to our YouTube Channel?Thank you for engaging with us, your comments always welcome.

 

Cumberland Advisors
Weekly Update
Email | About



The Failing Trump Navarro Trade War

The United States seems to be losing the ill-conceived Trump-Navarro trade war. The evidence of this loss continues to mount.

Market-Commentary-Cumberland-Advisors-Trade-War-Worsens

Here is an important Bloomberg catalog of specific facts and items and actions. (Note that this is not “fake news.”) “These Products Show How Hard It’ll Be to Beat China in Trade War,” https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-11-11/trump-s-china-cold-war-yields-hard-look-at-global-supply-chains.

Meanwhile, Peter Navarro is doing a creditable job of shooting himself (and the country) in the foot. In POLITICO’s Morning Money for Nov. 12, POLITICO’s Doug Palmer reports,

“White House trade adviser Peter Navarro on Friday accused Wall Street ‘globalist billionaires’ of trying to sabotage … Trump’s handling of trade relations with China. ‘Consider the shuttle diplomacy that is now going on by a self-appointed group of Wall Street bankers and hedge fund managers between the U.S. and China,’ Navarro said in a speech at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

“ ‘As part of the Chinese government influence operations, globalist billionaires are putting a full-court press on the White House in advance of the G-20 in Argentina. The mission of these unregistered foreign agents … is to pressure this president into some kind of a deal,’ he said. The blustery language came ahead of a planned meeting between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping later this month, which many hope will lead to a deescalation of trade tensions. However, Navarro seemed to downplay chances for major progress at the upcoming meeting.”

(The POLITICO article is behind a paywall, but for those who subscribe or wish to subscribe, the article link is http://go.politicoemail.com.)

Business Insider agrees with our assessment of the Trump-Navarro actions on trade and offers what it calls “the best hard evidence yet that the tariffs are causing major disruptions in the economy.” In an article titled “Trump’s trade war took a stunning bite out of the US economy, and it’s the strongest evidence yet that he’s shooting himself in the foot,” BI points to last week’s report on third-quarter US GDP and makes the point that while GDP growth came in at 3.5%, that figure would have been a whopping 5.3% if trade had not dragged it down by 1.9% – the largest negative contribution to GDP growth for trade in 33 years. (See https://www.businessinsider.com/gdp-trump-tariff-trade-war-us-china-2018-10.)

The Wall Street Journal’s editorial on November 13, 2018 was rightly harsh. It castigated Navarro statements and arrogance and ended with “Maybe the question to ask is whether Mr. Navarro is a Democratic Party agent.”

Trade War economic data bear out this view.

US GDP growth peaked in Q2. On examination, we can see that part of the Q3 growth was inventory building in anticipation of more tariffs. Who can rationally blame any American company from trying to protect itself from an unpredictable and incoherent policy?

Selectively, some US prices are rising as a result of tariffs. That trend is to be expected, and more prices are likely to rise if the tariffs are expanded or increased. Remember: A tariff the US imposes on an import is really a sales tax on you and me.

The Fed faces a dilemma and knows it. Does the Fed raise interest rates to fight an anticipated inflation caused by the Trump-Navarro tariffs? Or does the Fed view tariffs as a shock and ignore them? The Fed is now seeing the results of tariffs in its information gathering. At the December meeting we expect the Fed to raise rates a quarter point.

So far there are only limited indications that the Trump-Navarro trade war is impacting credit spreads. To follow this item, one must look at the spread in interest rates between the high-yield bond sector (rated below BBB) and the comparable US Treasury yield. Right now those spreads are tight, which means we aren’t seeing damage in credit sectors because of tariffs. If Trump gets a truce with China at the end of this month, we expect credit spreads to stay tight. If Trump and Navarro fail, we expect spreads to widen early next year as trade war damage mounts.

Note that an entire bureaucracy is expanding in Washington as the business of gaining tariff exemptions becomes an employment bonanza for lobbyists, lawyers, and consultants. So much for draining the swamp.

Where does this ill-advised trade war end? The best outcome is a resolved trade deal acceptable to both sides, one that has longevity and features dispute resolution, so that American business can make capital commitments with some confidence. Right now, capital investment is being deferred, since policy under Trump-Navarro is erratic.

Navarro now is under attack for the policy he has influenced. Post-election, the Trump administration is experiencing chaotic turnover. But Trump and Navarro will never admit any policy error. That is why Navarro now attacks “Wall Street” for its criticism of his policy design.

Apologies and rhetoric blaming China abound. Meanwhile, thousands of tariff-exemption applications are slowly being processed.

At the moment, US stock markets have accepted this trade war situation and seem to have completed their October-Halloween correction. The ghoulish Trump-Navarro trade war inflicted that correction. Now, the market likes the earnings picture. The market goes on climbing, finding toeholds in a wall of worry over trade war folly. But market agents are fraught with uncertainty and Trump Navarro policy is the cause. Add divided government and that uncertainty premium rises.

We now send a Saturday morning summary of the week’s commentaries and add video and press references. This a free link from the Cumberland website. Here is last Saturday’s note: “Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (Nov 05, 2018 – Nov 09, 2018),” https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-week-in-review-nov-05-2018-nov-09-2018/.

Meanwhile, the evidence of Trump-Navarro trade war damage to the US grows.

David R. Kotok
Chairman and Chief Investment Officer
Email | Bio


Links to other websites or electronic media controlled or offered by Third-Parties (non-affiliates of Cumberland Advisors) are provided only as a reference and courtesy to our users. Cumberland Advisors has no control over such websites, does not recommend or endorse any opinions, ideas, products, information, or content of such sites, and makes no warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, reliability or suitability of their content. Cumberland Advisors hereby disclaims liability for any information, materials, products or services posted or offered at any of the Third-Party websites. The Third-Party may have a privacy and/or security policy different from that of Cumberland Advisors. Therefore, please refer to the specific privacy and security policies of the Third-Party when accessing their websites.

Sign up for our FREE Cumberland Market Commentaries

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.




Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (Nov 05, 2018 – Nov 09, 2018)

The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team. These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.


MATT MCALEER’S WEEKLY RECAP

 

Matt McAleer gives us his take on the market this week. What about cash? Is it good to have it? Matt offers some insight into how Cumberland Advisors leverages cash and their strategy to use it for advantage. WATCH HERE.

 

Cumberland-Advisors-Matt-McAleer-Update-November-09-2018-Video

 


MARKET COMMENTARY

 

Sign up or see more Market Commentary


FEATURED INTERVIEW

 

Can Smallcaps Regain Status as Market Leaders After October Selloff? Matt McAleer Weighs In.

Matt McAleer discusses opportunities in the market, what about FAANG, active vs. passive trading, what position are investors truly in financial markets, and what types of value in the market he gravitates toward. His conversation is with Oliver Renick, host of “Market On Close” at TDAmeritrade.

The interview is available here.

 


IN THE NEWS

 

Quoted: David R. Kotok 11/09/2018

Quoted: John R. Mousseau, CFA 11/09/2018

Quoted: David R. Kotok 11/02/2018


IN CASE YOU MISSED IT

 

    • The Rise Of Municipal Separately Managed Accounts 2018 Update

      Patricia Healy, CFA 9/18/2018

      Cumberland has utilized separately managed accounts to execute its fixed-income strategy since its inception in 1973, long before separately managed accounts (SMAs) were popularized in the early 2000s. Market Commentary – Cumberland Advisors – The Rise of Municipal Separately Managed Accounts 2018 Update What exactly is an SMA? Per Investopedia: “A[n] SMA is a portfolio of assets under the management of a professional investment firm. In the United States, the vast majority of such firms are called registered investment advisors, and operate under the regulatory auspices of the Investment Advisors Act of 1940 and the purview of the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). One or more portfolio managers are responsible for day-to-day investment decisions, supported by a team of analysts, operations and administrative staff. SMAs differ from pooled vehicles like mutual funds in that each portfolio is unique to a single account (hence the name). In other words, if you set up a separate account with Money Manager X, then Manager X has the discretion to make decisions for this account that may be different from decisions made for other accounts.” The reasons for managing money in this fashion are the same today as they were then. Continued…

    • How Safe is Your Bank?

      David R. Kotok 7/25/2008

      In 1790, Edmund Burke, the founder of Anglo-American conservatism, waxed eloquently about the power and responsibilities of a government’s agencies in a democracy. He said: “To execute laws is a royal office; to execute orders is not to be king. A political magistracy, though merely such, is a great trust.” This warning came before there were central banks like the Federal Reserve, before there were bank regulators & supervisors, and before there were bank deposit insurers like the FDIC. Was Burke prescient and thinking about them? Two hundred and eighteen years after Burke’s admonition, we can ask: Is your money safe in the bank? Here is what we know about banks and your bank deposits. And there is a lot we don’t know. Continued…

 

Have you subscribed to our YouTube Channel?

Thank you for engaging with us, your comments always welcome.

Cumberland Advisors
Weekly Update
Email | About

Links to other websites or electronic media controlled or offered by Third-Parties (non-affiliates of Cumberland Advisors) are provided only as a reference and courtesy to our users. Cumberland Advisors has no control over such websites, does not recommend or endorse any opinions, ideas, products, information, or content of such sites, and makes no warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, reliability or suitability of their content. Cumberland Advisors hereby disclaims liability for any information, materials, products or services posted or offered at any of the Third-Party websites. The Third-Party may have a privacy and/or security policy different from that of Cumberland Advisors. Therefore, please refer to the specific privacy and security policies of the Third-Party when accessing their websites.

Sign up for our FREE Cumberland Market Commentaries

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.




Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (Oct 29, 2018 – Nov 02, 2018)

The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team. These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.

 

MATT MCALEER’S WEEKLY RECAP

Matt McAleer talks about the market this week and Cumberland Advisors’ broad positions. David Kotok jumps in with some Q&A about trade talks and the midterm elections: are they having an effect on the market?

 

 

MARKET COMMENTARY

 

Sign up or see more Market Commentary

 


FEATURED INTERVIEW

David Kotok, Chief Investment Officer/Co-Founder, Cumberland Advisors, joins Chuck Jaffe on his program, Money Life.

David Kotok and Chuck Jaffe discuss what’s normal for financial markets, the Great Recession, thoughts on the volatility of October 2018, trade wars, and how does he see the year and the decade finishing out.

The interview is available here.


IN THE NEWS

 

BLOOMBERG – Markets to Head Higher After Rocky Period (Radio)
Quoted: David R. Kotok 10/31/2018

The Queensland Times – Puerto Rico’s revised fiscal plan shows surplus; bonds rally
Quoted: Shaun Burgess 10/23/2018

Sarasota Herald Tribune – MOUSSEAU: The Cumberland World Series Theory of the Bond
Quoted: David R. Kotok 10/19/2018


 

IN CASE YOU MISSED IT

 

    • Fed Independence

      Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D. 7/23/2018

      In the wake of the turmoil in Washington, DC, over his performance in Helsinki, President Trump also took a sideswipe at the Federal Reserve, criticizing the FOMC’s recent efforts to normalize policy. Most presidents – though not all – have understood that Fed independence ensures separation from the Treasury and serves as a check on fiscal excesses. When a central bank takes orders from the fiscal side of government, history shows that inflation and economic decline soon follow. Continued…

 

  • Tuplip Fever

    David R. Kotok 10/15/2017

    Three levels are apparent in the wonderfully crafted movie Tulip Fever, in which the impeccably cast Judi Dench is both abbess (mother superior) and tulip-speculating vault keeper. The film is a cinematic lesson about trading momentum and human emotions overtaking investment reasoning. But there is also a lesson in Dutch history, with a marvelous depiction of early 17th-century Amsterdam and only by surmise and projections Amsterdam’s upstart cousin Nieuw Amsterdam, otherwise known as New York. Bottom line: NYC really was and still is a Dutch town. Continued…

Have you subscribed to our YouTube Channel?Thank you for engaging with us, your comments always welcome.

Cumberland Advisors
Weekly Update
Email | About

Links to other websites or electronic media controlled or offered by Third-Parties (non-affiliates of Cumberland Advisors) are provided only as a reference and courtesy to our users. Cumberland Advisors has no control over such websites, does not recommend or endorse any opinions, ideas, products, information, or content of such sites, and makes no warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, reliability or suitability of their content. Cumberland Advisors hereby disclaims liability for any information, materials, products or services posted or offered at any of the Third-Party websites. The Third-Party may have a privacy and/or security policy different from that of Cumberland Advisors. Therefore, please refer to the specific privacy and security policies of the Third-Party when accessing their websites.

Sign up for our FREE Cumberland Market Commentaries

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.