Tag Archives: muni bonds

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The SALT (State and Local Taxes) Conundrum

Author: John R. Mousseau, CFA, Patricia Healy, CFA, & Gabriel Hament, Post Date: February 12, 2019
Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - The SALT (State and Local Taxes) Conundrum (Municipal Bonds)

There have been headlines recently describing the drop in state tax revenues versus forecasts for some of the higher-tax states such as California, New York, and New Jersey. Part of the falloff is due to an exodus of higher-income residents from high-tax states, such as the ones above, for states with low or no income […]

Q4 2018 Credit Commentary and a Look Ahead to 2019

Author: Patricia Healy, CFA, Post Date: January 8, 2019
Cumberland Advisors - Q4 2018 Credit Commentary and a Look Ahead to 2019

Has The Municipal Credit Cycle Plateaued? Many positive indicators suggest that the municipal credit cycle has yet to plateau. Upgrades continue to outpace downgrades; the US economy is still growing; federal tax reform boosted revenues in fiscal 2018; and rainy day funds or reserve levels in many localities are strong. However, pressures continue to confront […]

4Q2018 Review: Munis Turn It Around

Author: John R. Mousseau, CFA, Post Date: December 28, 2018
Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - 4Q2018 Review Munis Turn It Around

Muni yields rose in the first six weeks of this quarter – mostly in sympathy with US Treasuries (UST). We saw the 10-year and 30-year Treasury bonds rise 20 and 25 basis points respectively. Since early November, AAA muni yields (AAA) have dropped across the board, and the 10-year Treasury yield has fallen a whopping […]

Is the Municipal Bond Market Sleepy?! Pension Doomsday?

Author: Patricia Healy, CFA, Post Date: November 19, 2018
Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Is the Municipal Bond Market Sleepy - Pension Doomsday

Today’s municipal bond market is anything but “sleepy,” as Spencer Jakab characterized it in his Wall Street Journal article “Prophet of Muni Market Doom Wasn’t Wrong, Just Early” (10/26/2018). The Prophet of Doom he referred to was Meredith Whitney, who shortly before the financial crisis successfully predicted the damage to Citibank by bad mortgages. In […]

The California Wildfires’ Financial Toll

Author: , Post Date: November 16, 2018
Cumberland-Advisors-Patricia-Healy-In-The-News

Excerpt below from “The California Wildfires’ Financial Toll” By Randall W. Forsyth, Nov. 16, 2018 1:06 p.m. ET In every disaster, natural or man-made, a price is exacted first in human terms. From the relative safety of where I write this, I can recall the damage from superstorm Sandy that crippled the Northeast six years […]

Puerto Rico Oversight Board, Rosselló tussle over Christmas bonus

Author: , Post Date: November 15, 2018
Cumberland-Advisors-Shaun-Burgess-In-The-News

Excerpt below from “Puerto Rico Oversight Board, Rosselló tussle over Christmas bonus” By Robert Slavin, November 15 2018, 3:27pm EST Puerto Rico’s Christmas bonus is again under the spotlight as the Oversight Board pressures Gov. Ricardo Rosselló to identify spending reductions to offset the cost of his plan to pay the annual benefit. The clash […]

Midterm Elections – The Quick Muni Note

Author: John R. Mousseau, CFA, Post Date: November 7, 2018
Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Midterm Elections – The Quick Muni Note

Here’s our first take after the midterm elections. The polls actually got it right, with the Democrats taking the House of Representatives and the Republicans enjoying a slight pickup in the Senate. Divided government, with different parties in control of the House and Senate, has sometimes led to gridlock.  It also tends to keep spurious […]

Q3 2018 Municipal Credit Commentary

Author: Patricia Healy, CFA, Post Date: September 28, 2018
Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Q3 2018 Municipal Credit Commentary

Updates, budgets, potential future stresses, state ratings, default study, and last but not least, storms Last quarter we focused our 2Q 2018 municipal credit commentary on two SCOTUS (Supreme Court of the United States) rulings. One allows states to collect tax on out-of-state internet sales while the other restricts public unions from requiring that non-union […]