Tag Archives: Robert Eisenbeis

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May FOMC Minutes: Patience

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: May 28, 2019
Federal Reserve - FOMC

In advance of the release of the FOMC’s May minutes, speculation in the press and by financial market participants was that the Committee might cut the federal funds target rate. The main line of conjecture centered on how long the FOMC could continue to miss its inflation target on the downside before a rate cut […]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Tariffs – Macroeconomic Versus Microeconomic Effects: In the Long Run We Are All Dead

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: May 17, 2019
Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Impact of Tariffs

Robert Brusca of FAO-Economics details some interesting information on US trade and the likely impacts that the current US-China trade war could have on prices.[1] He has provided us with a deep dive into the mechanics and macro costs of the current tariff “war.” Here are data suggesting that markets may have overreacted to this […]

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary – Hope Is Not a Strategy

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: May 7, 2019
Federal Reserve - FOMC

On Wednesday, the FOMC left its policy stance unchanged. This decision was consistent with the message sent after the previous meeting and was not contradicted by speeches given by FOMC participants in the intermeeting period. This action was also consistent with the consensus view of economists who follow the Fed. Indeed, of the 39 economists […]

The FOMC, March 2019

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: March 27, 2019
Federal Reserve - FOMC

To no one’s surprise, the FOMC left its policy rate unchanged. This decision was widely telegraphed in advance. What was a surprise to many – but should not have been – was the mark-down in prospective rate changes to zero in 2019 and only one in 2020. Pundits puzzled over what had changed since the […]

The January 2019 Fed Minutes

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: February 22, 2019
Federal Reserve - FOMC

Attention has turned to what extra gems of information might be contained in the release of the FOMC’s January 2019 minutes about the future path of policy. Comments have focused on the Fed’s balance sheet, the consequences of its runoff for financial markets, and what the Fed’s policies might be going forward in terms of […]

Taxing Wealth Instead of Income?

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: February 13, 2019
Cumberland Advisors' Bob Eisenbeis

With the desire to finance both an increasing deficit and an increase in government services, politicians are searching far and wide for funds. Increasingly, proposals are surfacing to tax wealth rather than income as the means to fund pet projects. The proposals attract followers since unequal distribution of wealth is viewed as a problem that […]

Tax the Rich

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: January 29, 2019
Cumberland Advisors' Bob Eisenbeis

As the political season begins to heat up for 2020, we have seen an increasing number of proposals to provide free education, free healthcare, a universal guarantee of a living wage, etc. With an historic level of public debt topping $21 trillion and a deficit of nearly $1 trillion and projected to climb even more […]

Can the President Fire the Chairman of the Federal Reserve?

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: January 10, 2019
Cumberland Advisors' Bob Eisenbeis

The question has arisen, does the president have the ability to fire the chairman of the Federal Reserve. The short answer appears to be no. But few understand the structure of the Federal Reserve and how, by design, that structure both compartmentalizes and is designed to insulate policy making from attempts by outsiders to influence […]

Yogi Berra, the Fed’s Balance Sheet, and Liquidity

Author: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D., Post Date: December 28, 2018
Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Yogi Berra, the Fed’s Balance Sheet, and Liquidity - The Fed’s Quantitative Easing Program

The story is that the Fed’s quantitative easing program injected large amounts of liquidity into financial markets, causing bond rates to fall and stock prices to accelerate. Consequently, the argument goes that, the shrinking of the Fed’s balance sheet through maturity runoff will cause bond rates to increase and, presumably, stock prices to retreat. But […]