Why the US-China trade war won’t last

How Trump’s trade war is unraveling the Trump rally

Cumberland Advisors in the News

Excerpts below.

By Matt Egan, CNN Business
Tuesday, May 14th 2019

The United States and China don’t just coexist. Their massive economies are deeply intertwined in ways that make the intensifying trade war unsustainable.

Tariffs are the weapons of choice as both sides attempt to improve their negotiating leverage. Consumers and businesses find themselves caught in the crossfire. The levies will increase costs, muddle supply chains and drive up debilitating uncertainty.

UBS cut its 2019 GDP growth forecast for China from 6.4% to 6.2%. While Beijing will try to soften the blow with stimulus, UBS said growth could slip below 6% in 2019 and 2020 if the trade war deepens.

“The risk is monstrous. It’s very troubling,” said David Kotok, chairman and chief investment officer at Cumberland Advisors.

The interconnectedness of China and the United States has been driven in part by the millions of people in China that have been lifted out of poverty.

“You have an expanding middle class wealth effect,” said Kotok, who also serves as director of the Global Interdependence Center, an organization advocating for the expansion of free trade.

Read the full article here: CNN Business


Links to other websites or electronic media controlled or offered by Third-Parties (non-affiliates of Cumberland Advisors) are provided only as a reference and courtesy to our users. Cumberland Advisors has no control over such websites, does not recommend or endorse any opinions, ideas, products, information, or content of such sites, and makes no warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, reliability or suitability of their content. Cumberland Advisors hereby disclaims liability for any information, materials, products or services posted or offered at any of the Third-Party websites. The Third-Party may have a privacy and/or security policy different from that of Cumberland Advisors. Therefore, please refer to the specific privacy and security policies of the Third-Party when accessing their websites. Sign up for our FREE Cumberland Market Commentaries Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.




Matt McAleer talks Markets with Oliver Renick on TD Ameritrade 2019-05-13

Matt McAleer, Executive Vice President & Director of Equity Strategies for Cumberland Advisors, appears on the TD Ameritrade Network, May 13th, to discuss financial markets with Oliver Renick.

Matt McAleer talks Markets with Oliver Renick on TD Ameritrade 2019-05-13

View the discussion here: https://tdameritradenetwork.com

You can watch Matt’s deliver weekly updated market commentary here on Cumberland Advisors’ YouTube Channel.




This Is a Serious Confrontation Between World’s Biggest Economies, Says Cumberland’s Kotok

This Is a Serious Confrontation Between World’s Biggest Economies, Says Cumberland’s Kotok

Bloomberg Daybreak Asia
May 9th, 2019, 9:10 PM EDT
Bloomberg-This Is a Serious Confrontation Between World’s Biggest Economies, Says Kotok

David Kotok, chairman and chief investment officer at Cumberland Advisors, discusses the U.S.-China trade negotiations and their impact on markets. He speaks on “Bloomberg Daybreak: Asia.” (Source: Bloomberg)

Watch at on Bloomberg.




Markets freak (a little)

Excerpt from Politico Morning Money

By BEN WHITE (bwhite@politico.com; @morningmoneyben) , AUBREE ELIZA WEAVER (aweaver@politico.com; @AubreeEWeaver)
05/08/2019 08:00 AM EDT

Markets freak (a little) — Wall Street finally gave a nod to the possibility that talks with China could fail and President Trump could follow through on his threat of full trade war. But it wasn’t much of a drop.

What happened — Cumberland’s David Kotok tells MM: “The trade war risk is now being confirmed. That is a healthy realization rather than a fantasy goldilocks scenario. It’s about time markets woke up to the reality that a trade war hurts everyone and that includes economic growth, earnings, profits and stock prices worldwide.”

Read the full Morning Money Newsletter at POLITICO.com .


Links to other websites or electronic media controlled or offered by Third-Parties (non-affiliates of Cumberland Advisors) are provided only as a reference and courtesy to our users. Cumberland Advisors has no control over such websites, does not recommend or endorse any opinions, ideas, products, information, or content of such sites, and makes no warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, reliability or suitability of their content. Cumberland Advisors hereby disclaims liability for any information, materials, products or services posted or offered at any of the Third-Party websites. The Third-Party may have a privacy and/or security policy different from that of Cumberland Advisors. Therefore, please refer to the specific privacy and security policies of the Third-Party when accessing their websites.

Sign up for our FREE Cumberland Market Commentaries

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.




Upcoming slate should see ‘plenty of demand’

Cumberland Advisors John Mousseau

Excerpt from…

Upcoming slate should see ‘plenty of demand’

By Aaron Weitzman
Christine Albano

Published April 18 2019

Next week’s calendar should benefit from timing and availability of paper coming on the heels of both the income tax deadline and the holiday-shortened week.

Munis will be very much on the minds of lots of people who paid larger bills due to the state and local tax changes, which may increase demand for next week’s slate, according to John Mousseau, director of fixed income at Cumberland Advisors.

“One way to combat that is to own more tax-free bonds,” he said, indicating that the market next week will absorb new supply with ease.

Overall, he said the market may be poised for a change from the current norm.

“The strength the market has experienced has to abate somewhat,” Mousseau added. “This is just some normal reversion to the mean.”

He noted that visible supply has averaged $7 billion so far in 2019.

“This is all very navigable for the market,” Mousseau said.

Continue reading (with subscription) at The Bond Buyer website: www.bondbuyer.com




Golden Cross Materializes in S&P 500 Price Action

Golden Cross Materializes in S&P 500 Price Action

Bloomberg Daybreak: Americas

April 2nd, 2019, 9:38 AM EDT

Golden Cross Materializes in S&P 500 Price Action – David Kotok on Bloomberg TV

Philip Camporeale, investment specialist at JPMorgan Asset Management, and David Kotok, chairman and chief investment officer at Cumberland Advisors, discuss the sustained rally in equities. They speak on “Bloomberg Daybreak: Americas.” (Source: Bloomberg)

 

Watch at on Bloomberg.

 




1Q2019 Review: US Equity ETF

The US stock market staged a powerful recovery in the first two months of 2019. This upturn followed promptly on the heels of the Christmas Eve massacre at the end of 2018. We’ve written about the causes of that massacre and can share the discussion with anyone who missed it. Just email me for a copy of the discussion.

Cumberland Advisors - Quarterly Review - US ETF

Cumberland’s US ETF managed accounts were nearly fully invested at yearend. That position was sustained through the first two months of 2019 as the market recovered robustly. At the end of February, we started to realign portfolios and raise some cash reserves. That process has continued into March.

Weekly commentary on the market is available on Cumberland Advisors’ YouTube channel and usually includes Matt McAleer’s weekly summary. Email me if you want to be added to the weekly Cumberland Advisors YouTube channel list.

We are also pleased to be sending our new reporting format to clients and their referring consultants. We hope you find these reports comprehensive and valuable.

As March unfolds, we expect the US stock market to show bouts of increased volatility. We expect that to continue throughout all of 2019. The list of uncertainties includes Fed policy, foreign central banks, and the question of trade war or trade peace. Geopolitical issues rank high was on the list, specifically in Latin America, where developments in our hemisphere impact us directly.

David R. Kotok
Chairman of the Board & Chief Investment Officer
Email | Bio




Matt McAleer talks Markets on TD Ameritrade 2019-03-14

Matt McAleer, Executive Vice President & Director of Equity Strategies for Cumberland Advisors, appears on the TD Ameritrade Network to discuss financial markets with Oliver Renick.

View the discussion here: https://tdameritradenetwork.com

You can watch Matt’s deliver weekly updated market commentary here on Cumberland Advisors’ YouTube Channel.

Morning Trade Live_ 03_14_2019 _ TD Ameritrade Network

Can’t get enough of Matt? Listen to him during a 2018 radio discussion about Financial Literacy in advance of Cumberland Advisors’ annual event with GIC and USFSM here: Suncoast Speaks interview with John Mousseau & Matt McAleer about Financial Literacy




Cumberland CIO Kotok on Where to Invest in the Muni Market

Cumberland CIO Kotok on Where to Invest in the Muni Market

Watch on Bloomberg’s site or embedded below:

https://www.bloomberg.com

 



 


Links to other websites or electronic media controlled or offered by Third-Parties (non-affiliates of Cumberland Advisors) are provided only as a reference and courtesy to our users. Cumberland Advisors has no control over such websites, does not recommend or endorse any opinions, ideas, products, information, or content of such sites, and makes no warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, reliability or suitability of their content. Cumberland Advisors hereby disclaims liability for any information, materials, products or services posted or offered at any of the Third-Party websites. The Third-Party may have a privacy and/or security policy different from that of Cumberland Advisors. Therefore, please refer to the specific privacy and security policies of the Third-Party when accessing their websites.

Sign up for our FREE Cumberland Market Commentaries Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.




Matt McAleer talks Markets on TD Ameritrade

Matt McAleer, Executive Vice President & Director of Equity Strategies for Cumberland Advisors, appears on the TD Ameritrade Network to discuss financial markets with Oliver Renick.

View the discussion here: https://tdameritradenetwork.com

You can watch Matt’s deliver weekly updated market commentary here on Cumberland Advisors’ YouTube Channel.

Matthew McAleer, Executive Vice President & Director of Equity Strategies for Cumberland Advisors, appears on the TD Ameritrade Network to discuss financial markets.

Can’t get enough of Matt? Listen to him during a 2018 radio discussion about Financial Literacy in advance of Cumberland Advisors’ annual event with GIC and USFSM here: Suncoast Speaks interview with John Mousseau & Matt McAleer about Financial Literacy