Trump’s trade war with China is starting to get out of hand

Trump’s trade war with China is starting to get out of hand

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Currency Risk Quote (David Kotok)

Excerpts below.

By Matt Egan, CNN Business
Monday, Aug 5th 2019

New York (CNN Business)The US-China trade war has always been serious. Now it’s starting to get scary. China allowed its currency to drop sharply on Monday to the weakest level in more than a decade. And China announced its companies have halted purchases of American agricultural goods. This comes after US President Donald Trump vowed last week to impose tariffs for the first time on a wide swath of US consumer goods from China.
 
China’s currency move raised the specter of a currency war, where major countries race to devalue their respective currencies.
 
“It’s the currency risk that is the most volatile, hardest to see and the fastest reacting,” said David R. Kotok. “That’s the left hook that can knock out the boxer.”

 

Read the full article here: CNN Business


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We Are Not Clear About a Future Fed Path, Says Cumberland Advisors’s Kotok

We Are Not Clear About a Future Fed Path, Says Cumberland Advisors’s Kotok

July 31, 2019

David Kotok, chairman and chief investment officer at Cumberland Advisors, discusses the Fed decision and the way forward for markets. He speaks on “Bloomberg Daybreak: Asia.”

Cumberland Advisors's David Kotok - Future Fed Path Is Not Clear – Bloomberg TV

Watch at Bloomberg TV or in the embedded player below.




Shocking surge: Municipal bonds strength based on several fluid factors

Cumberland Advisors John Mousseau

Excerpt from “The Bond Buyer”…

Shocking surge: Municipal bonds strength based on several fluid factors

By Chip Barnett
July 01 2019

With under a $1 billion of bonds and notes selling this week, municipal bond investors were looking beyond the week’s offerings — to fundamentals and performance.

So far this year, muni yields have declined to an almost shocking extent, according to George Friedlander, Managing Partner at Court Street Group.

He cites a recent report by John Mousseau, CEO of Cumberland Advisors that shows the magnitude of the decline in absolute and relative yields since the beginning of the year.

Mousseau noted that muni yields have dropped sharply when measured either using MMD or MMA benchmarks. Since the beginning of the year 10-year muni yields are down 63 basis points; 30-year muni yields are down by as much as 67 basis points; 10-year muni yields as a percentage of Treasury yields have dropped from 84% to 79% using MMD; and 93% to 90% using MMA; and 30-year yields have dropped from 100% to 90% using MMD and from 105% to 96% using MMA.

Continue reading with subscription at the Bond Buyer website: www.bondbuyer.com


Links to other websites or electronic media controlled or offered by Third-Parties (non-affiliates of Cumberland Advisors) are provided only as a reference and courtesy to our users. Cumberland Advisors has no control over such websites, does not recommend or endorse any opinions, ideas, products, information, or content of such sites, and makes no warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, reliability or suitability of their content. Cumberland Advisors hereby disclaims liability for any information, materials, products or services posted or offered at any of the Third-Party websites. The Third-Party may have a privacy and/or security policy different from that of Cumberland Advisors. Therefore, please refer to the specific privacy and security policies of the Third-Party when accessing their websites.

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Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.




UBS Sees No Fed Rate Cut Until at Least 2021

UBS Sees No Fed Rate Cut Until at Least 2021

June 18, 2019

David Kotok, Cumberland Advisors Chairman and CIO, and Laura Kane, UBS head of Americas investing themes, discuss their outlook for the Fed. They appear on “Bloomberg Daybreak: Americas.”

David R. Kotok - Fed Rate Cut - Bloomberg

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Trump revs up his Wayback Machine

Excerpt from…

Trump revs up his Wayback Machine

In a single week, the president leaned heavily into economic theories from as far back as the 18th century.

By BEN WHITE (bwhite@politico.com; @morningmoneyben)
06/20/2019 05:15 AM EDT

Cumberland-Advisors-Robert-Bob-Eisenbeis-In-The-News

Stanley Fischer, the former Fed vice chair, said at a forum Tuesday that slashing rates right now following pressure from Trump “would destroy the independence of the Fed,“ adding “it’s not something that should be done.”

Economists also note that monetary policy remains fairly loose and that one or two cuts is not likely to address damage from Trump’s trade policies.

“Realistically, a cut in rates is not going to counter the damage to farmers trying to sell their soybeans,” said Robert Eisenbeis, chief monetary economist at Cumberland Advisors and former research director at the Atlanta Fed. “A rate cut is pretty far removed from the damage the administration is doing with their tariff policy. If you are a farmer or a car maker trying to figure out what to do, it doesn’t help you.”

Trump also signaled this week that he may not wind up cutting a deal with China.

Read the full article at POLITICO.com .


Links to other websites or electronic media controlled or offered by Third-Parties (non-affiliates of Cumberland Advisors) are provided only as a reference and courtesy to our users. Cumberland Advisors has no control over such websites, does not recommend or endorse any opinions, ideas, products, information, or content of such sites, and makes no warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, reliability or suitability of their content. Cumberland Advisors hereby disclaims liability for any information, materials, products or services posted or offered at any of the Third-Party websites. The Third-Party may have a privacy and/or security policy different from that of Cumberland Advisors. Therefore, please refer to the specific privacy and security policies of the Third-Party when accessing their websites.

Sign up for our FREE Cumberland Market Commentaries

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.




U.S. Trade Representative is grilled on Capitol Hill about China and Mexico

U.S. Trade Representative is grilled on Capitol Hill about China and Mexico

June 18, 2019

Yahoo Finance - David R. Kotok - U.S. Trade

President Trump’s top trade negotiator Robert Lighthizer was in the Congressional hot seat today facing tough questions from lawmakers on trade and tariffs. Rick Helfenbein, American Apparel and Footwear Association CEO, joins Yahoo Finance’s Julie Hyman and Adam Shapiro, Cornell Capital’s Ann Berry and Cumberland Advisors Chairman David Kotok to talk about the latest trade headlines.

“The tariff wars create winners and losers. You just hear from losers. They’re worried. With good reason. There are no tariffs on the healthcare sector. You can’t name them. It’s 18% of our GDP. In our portfolios, we’re overweight in the healthcare sector. Why? Do we want this tariff war? No. But as a portfolio manager and investment advisor, you have to pick and choose. And tariff wars by definition pick winners and losers and they have unintended consequences. And we’re just seeing the unintended consequences revealed now,” says David R. Kotok.

Watch at Yahoo Finance or in the embedded player below.




Analyst: I’m 50 years in this business. What do I buy, and do I base it on a tweet?

Analyst: I’m 50 years in this business. What do I buy, and do I base it on a tweet?

June 18, 2019

Yahoo Finance - David R. Kotok

Yahoo Finance’s Adam Shapiro and Julie Hyman sit down with David Kotok, Cumberland Advisors Chairman & Chief Investment Officer.

“I won’t take my money and lend it to the United States of America at 2% for 10 years and I won’t pay Austria money to hold money for me and charge me to do so for 100 years. How can I possible do that for a client? So if I won’t do that with my money I’m not going to do it for a client,” says David R. Kotok.

Watch at Yahoo Finance or in the embedded player below.




Municipal calendar grows to $7B as the summer reinvestment season arrives

Cumberland Advisors John Mousseau

Excerpt from “The Bond Buyer”…

Municipal calendar grows to $7B as the summer reinvestment season arrives

By Christine Albano & Chip Barnett
May 31 2019

The food fight among municipal investors is expected to reach new heights with the arrival of the summer reinvestment season, municipal managers and observers said.

Some say it will be the first time in a decade that the municipal market’s lofty prices, severe lack of supply, and intense demand will combine to create a historical repeat of the climate following the financial crisis.

John Mousseau, president and chief executive officer of Cumberland Advisors, agreed that the reinvestment season could far surpass other years given the current market technicals.

“We expect demand to be strong, the amount of reinvestment to be strong, and the overall supply to be light relative to the demand,” he said on May 30.

To make matters worse, said the absence of refunding issues is complicating the existing supply famine — and impacting prices, he noted.

Continue reading at the Bond Buyer website: www.bondbuyer.com




Trump’s two-front trade war triggers alarms

Excerpt from Politico

By BEN WHITE and ADAM BEHSUDI
05/31/2019 02:30 PM EDT

President Donald Trump’s decision to open a second front in his trade war sent tremors through global markets, unnerved corporate America and spurred economists to raise new warnings about the potential for a sharp economic slowdown just as the 2020 presidential contest heats up.

Trump’s surprise Thursday night threat to impose tariffs — beginning at 5 percent and potentially rising as high as 25 percent on Mexican exports to the United States — also threatened to raise consumer prices on everything from avocados to blue jeans to automobiles.

“This is a colossal blunder,” said David Kotok, chief investment officer at Cumberland Advisors. He said the advice of Peter Navarro, one of Trump’s top trade advisers who favors liberal use of tariffs, “is wrongheaded and sinking his president.”

Read the full story at POLITICO.com .


Links to other websites or electronic media controlled or offered by Third-Parties (non-affiliates of Cumberland Advisors) are provided only as a reference and courtesy to our users. Cumberland Advisors has no control over such websites, does not recommend or endorse any opinions, ideas, products, information, or content of such sites, and makes no warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, reliability or suitability of their content. Cumberland Advisors hereby disclaims liability for any information, materials, products or services posted or offered at any of the Third-Party websites. The Third-Party may have a privacy and/or security policy different from that of Cumberland Advisors. Therefore, please refer to the specific privacy and security policies of the Third-Party when accessing their websites.

Sign up for our FREE Cumberland Market Commentaries

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.




How Federal Tax Reform Has Impacted Real Estate

Cumberland Advisors John Mousseau

Excerpt from…

How Federal Tax Reform Has Impacted Real Estate

The short-term effects haven’t been as bad as predicted, but local governments are still worried about the long term.
by | May 20, 2019

SALT change has driven some people to make moves and may be slowing some markets.

A couple in Old Tappan, N.J., moved to a nearby town last year to reduce their tax bill by $10,000. Fairfield County, Conn., which has some of the highest property taxes in the nation, has seen a surge in homes going on the market over the last six months. In Florida, where many northeasterners have second homes, there’s been a rush to switch residency to the lower-tax state, says John R. Mousseau, director of fixed income for Cumberland Advisors in Sarasota.

“Almost anyone I talk to here who has a second home is looking to do that trade,” he says.

Continue reading at the Governing Magazine website: www.governing.com