Worried About a Bear Market? Bonds Pose More Danger Than Stocks. Excerpt from Barron’s – Nov. 22, 2019 By Randall W. Forsyth Andrew Bary contended that Treasury bonds are now riskier than stocks in this space a few months ago. Moreover, given their low yields, which don’t have much room to fall further, bonds are […]
Muni yields rose in the first six weeks of this quarter – mostly in sympathy with US Treasuries (UST). We saw the 10-year and 30-year Treasury bonds rise 20 and 25 basis points respectively. Since early November, AAA muni yields (AAA) have dropped across the board, and the 10-year Treasury yield has fallen a whopping […]
The story is that the Fed’s quantitative easing program injected large amounts of liquidity into financial markets, causing bond rates to fall and stock prices to accelerate. Consequently, the argument goes that, the shrinking of the Fed’s balance sheet through maturity runoff will cause bond rates to increase and, presumably, stock prices to retreat. But […]
We start September with a cash reserve in our US equity ETF portfolios. Some details of our thinking follow. We wish our readers a Happy Post-Labor Day return to confront the 9-week run-up to the midterms. Other risk items include a possible government shutdown (not likely, in our view) and the effects of the continuing […]
…[R]isk is that China or another country weans itself off US debt by slowing its purchases and waiting for existing Treasuries to mature.
“Gradualism could have a long-term impact on the United States. But that would be a patient policy that would not reveal itself easily,” said David Kotok, chairman of Cumberland Advisors