Tag Archives: Trump


How Trump’s travel ban undermines a key US export: Higher education

Author: , Post Date: June 28, 2018

We are seeing the deterioration of a great American export. The U.S. is squandering a competitive advantage. And the buyer comes here to make the purchase and pays cash. We don’t have to ship a higher education anywhere. And school by school by school, we see a shrinking population of foreign students applying and coming to the U.S.

Trump can’t figure out what he wants from China

Author: , Post Date:

“We have a confusing message coming from our government,” said David Kotok, chief investment officer of Cumberland Advisors, which manages $3 billion in assets. “If policy evolves in a week, and it’s based on what somebody sees on Fox News, then you’ve got a problem.”

The dangers of Trump’s immigration crackdown

Author: , Post Date:

The benefits of tax bill and repatriation and deregulation are being replaced or muted with higher uncertainty premia and more cost. Navarro has already induced a slowing of growth in H2. If the Trump-Navarro drumbeat continues, they are inviting global growth slowdown and maybe even recession.

Man Bites Dog by Bob Brusca

Author: David R. Kotok & Bob Brusca, Chief Economist of FAO Economics, Post Date: June 12, 2018

With all the Trumpian hullabaloo over trade, I want to share with readers a balanced, well-reasoned analysis of US trade issues penned by my good friend Bob Brusca, Chief Economist of FAO Economics. Bob makes it clear that while there are pros and cons to the US’s longtime propensity to run trade deficits, there is […]

Gold and Defense Stocks Rise as Donald Trump Cancels North Korea Summit

Author: , Post Date: May 25, 2018

After Trump’s cancelation of the summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, investors appear to be bracing for more rockiness ahead. “We now have an unpredictable escalation path,” David Kotok of Cumberland Advisors wrote in a Thursday note of Trump’s letter. “We have a cash reserve in our Exchange Traded Fund accounts.”

Kim, Trump, Thucydides

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: May 24, 2018
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary by David Kotok

Trump’s cancellation of the Kim summit meeting clearly draws lines in the sand. Trump’s position cannot now be reversed for a longer period of time than was contemplated just hours ago. We now have an unpredictable escalation path. Kim’s behavior in destroying tunnels, underground mountain rail lines, and other parts of his nuclear test site […]

Thucydides–Part 3

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: May 15, 2018

In book five of The History of the Peloponnesian War, Thucydides describes how the Athenians sustained surprisingly large losses in battle and how the Spartans prevailed. He also describes what each side didn’t know about the condition of the other side. Problems arise when decisions are based on incomplete information. Athens didn’t know of the […]

Thucydides–Part 2

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: May 2, 2018

Many thanks to readers for comments about our “Thucydides – Part 1.” For those who missed it the link is http://www.cumber.com/thucydides-part-1/. In this part 2 we must first offer an apology to Professor Graham Allison. An astute reader caught a typo on a third occurrence of his first name, deep in the text of part […]

Thucydides–Part 1

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: April 28, 2018
Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Thucydides Trap

“Let China sleep; when she wakes, she will shake the world.” – Napoleon, 1817 (citation source: Graham Allison) “We really don’t think it was tariffs – those have been in the public domain for days. Rather, we believe the market has a very unhealthy dynamic at the moment. Washington policy is critical to the market […]