Tag Archives: Trump


Man Bites Dog by Bob Brusca

Author: David R. Kotok & Bob Brusca, Chief Economist of FAO Economics, Post Date: June 12, 2018

With all the Trumpian hullabaloo over trade, I want to share with readers a balanced, well-reasoned analysis of US trade issues penned by my good friend Bob Brusca, Chief Economist of FAO Economics. Bob makes it clear that while there are pros and cons to the US’s longtime propensity to run trade deficits, there is […]

Gold and Defense Stocks Rise as Donald Trump Cancels North Korea Summit

Author: , Post Date: May 25, 2018

After Trump’s cancelation of the summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, investors appear to be bracing for more rockiness ahead. “We now have an unpredictable escalation path,” David Kotok of Cumberland Advisors wrote in a Thursday note of Trump’s letter. “We have a cash reserve in our Exchange Traded Fund accounts.”

Kim, Trump, Thucydides

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: May 24, 2018
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary by David Kotok

Trump’s cancellation of the Kim summit meeting clearly draws lines in the sand. Trump’s position cannot now be reversed for a longer period of time than was contemplated just hours ago. We now have an unpredictable escalation path. Kim’s behavior in destroying tunnels, underground mountain rail lines, and other parts of his nuclear test site […]

Thucydides–Part 3

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: May 15, 2018

In book five of The History of the Peloponnesian War, Thucydides describes how the Athenians sustained surprisingly large losses in battle and how the Spartans prevailed. He also describes what each side didn’t know about the condition of the other side. Problems arise when decisions are based on incomplete information. Athens didn’t know of the […]

Thucydides–Part 2

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: May 2, 2018

Many thanks to readers for comments about our “Thucydides – Part 1.” For those who missed it the link is http://www.cumber.com/thucydides-part-1/. In this part 2 we must first offer an apology to Professor Graham Allison. An astute reader caught a typo on a third occurrence of his first name, deep in the text of part […]

Thucydides–Part 1

Author: David R. Kotok, Post Date: April 28, 2018
Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Thucydides Trap

“Let China sleep; when she wakes, she will shake the world.” – Napoleon, 1817 (citation source: Graham Allison) “We really don’t think it was tariffs – those have been in the public domain for days. Rather, we believe the market has a very unhealthy dynamic at the moment. Washington policy is critical to the market […]

Firing back at Hassett

Author: , Post Date: April 23, 2018

Excerpt below. Politico asked for responses to CEA Chair Kevin Hassett appearing to spike the ball on tax cut-induced growth. David Kotok was among the top responses. Cumberland Advisors’ David Kotok: “There is TrumpHateconomics and TrumpLoveconomics. But both use political narrative for data so both are wrong on forecasts and long on hyperbole. In the […]

Trade, Dollar, Trump

Author: , Post Date: January 26, 2018
Cumberland Advisors Market Commentary by David Kotok

“In the long run we are all dead” was John Maynard Keynes’ famous criticism of economic models. The rest of the quote goes, “Economists set themselves too easy, too useless a task, if in tempestuous seasons they can only tell us, that when the storm is long past, the ocean is flat again.” We thank […]