Cumberland Advisors & USFSM Bloomberg Certified Talent Recruitment Luncheon

USF Sarasota-Manatee hosted a special event this week to connect business students with financial services companies in an effort to address an industry need while also advancing the students’ careers.

Cumberland Advisors & USFSM Bloomberg Certified Talent Recruitment Luncheon

The event, the Bloomberg Certified Talent Recruitment Luncheon, was Friday March 22, 2019 and was designed to pair hiring representatives of financial services companies with USFSM business students certified to operate Bloomberg computer terminals.

Bloomberg computers are used by finance professionals to monitor and study real-time financial market data worldwide. Users can delve into equities, foreign markets and economies, and explore mergers and acquisitions.

« 1 of 3 »

 
 
 

Sarasota-based Cumberland Advisors and its chairman, David Kotok donated to USFSM 12 Bloomberg terminals – at the time of the initial gift, the most of any university in Florida – and established a Bloomberg teaching laboratory.

The lab, situated on the campus’ second floor, enables students to learn about the terminals’ functions to become “Bloomberg certified,” a highly valued financial industry designation.

“Programs like these are an excellent partnership between business and education,” Career Services Coordinator Antonia Ripo said. “Along with a degree in business, this certification makes our students competitive and ready to enter into rewarding careers in our area and beyond.”

“Students looking to obtain a competitive edge and valuable knowledge of financial markets would gain substantially from learning how to operate a Bloomberg terminal, and boost their skillset,” he said.

So far, close to 200 USFSM students have obtained the Bloomberg certification.

At Cumberland Advisors, we look forward to many more events that highlight the incredible talent pool in the Sarasota-Manatee area and we look forward to working with interns and developing the pipeline that leads to employment for these talented professionals.




Watch Livestream of Climate Change Summit at University South Florida Sarasota-Manatee

Cumberland Advisors’ Patty Healy is participating in the Climate Change Summit held at USF Sarasota-Manatee today, January 25, 2019. She’ll be speaking to the audience about municipal bond ratings relating to how prepared these entities are for severe weather events, the impacts of climate change, and other factors that may affect credit ratings. I’ll be helping out with introductions, interviews, and as an emcee. Bob Bunting, an accomplished entrepreneur and scientist, will lead the conference through many important topics and panel discussions.

If you’re unable to attend in person, the University has provided this “Livestream Link” as a way to watch: https://buff.ly/2WgFkWU

Livestream - Climate Change Summit at University South Florida Sarasota-Manatee 

More details about the Climate Change Summit at the University South Florida Sarasota-Manatee can be found here: www.usfsm.edu/climate

Thank you,
David

David R. Kotok
Chairman and Chief Investment Officer
Email | Bio




Zika, Climate Change & January 25

On December 30, as 2018 drew to an end, NBC’s Meet the Press aired an entire program on the climate change crisis, well worth watching (https://www.nbc.com/meet-the-press/video/meet-the-press-1230/3850857). Host Chuck Todd gave no air time to climate change denialism. Instead, the episode plunged into analyzing the crisis at hand, what might be done, what impediments slow our time-critical response, and how to overcome those impediments. Florida Republican Representative Carlos Curbelo, among other program guests, called for constructive action. “We need to stop covering the debate and start covering the story, so that people see that this is real, and so that politicians take a more-pragmatic approach and find solutions that are actually achievable,” Curbelo said. The day after Thanksgiving, despite Mr. Trump’s personal dismissal of climate change, the Trump administration released Volume II of the Fourth National Climate Assessment (https://www.globalchange.gov/nca4), and we’ve been digesting its deeply concerning contents in the week since.

The impacts of climate change are myriad, affecting our world, our communities, our health, our food supply, and our investments. We will be taking a look at a number of climate-change-related issues impacting Florida and beyond, from sea level rise to red tide to hurricanes to fruitful adaptive strategies and the economic opportunities they present, when we convene on Friday, January 25, at the University of South Florida Sarasota-Manatee for our one-day event, “Adapting to a Changing Climate: Challenges & Opportunities.” See the full roster of speakers, including our own Patricia Healy, here: http://sar.usfsm.edu/event/adapting-to-a-changing-climate/. We hope to see you there.

In today’s commentary, however, I would like to zero in on the impact of climate change on vector-borne diseases, including Zika. Chapter 14 of the Fourth National Climate Assessment (https://www.globalchange.gov/nca4) addresses the adverse effects of climate change on human health, noting that “Climate change affects human health by altering exposures to heat waves, floods, droughts, and other extreme events; vector-, food- and waterborne infectious diseases; changes in the quality and safety of air, food, and water; and stresses to mental health and well-being” (p. 545 in the full report PDF). We have no trouble grasping the threats posed by heat waves, fires, floods, and storms that claim lives as well as property, along with droughts that parch crops and threaten water supplies, but we should not miss the implications of climate change for increased vector-borne disease risks. As the report points out, “Climate change is expected to alter the geographic range, seasonal distribution, and abundance of disease vectors, exposing more people in North America to ticks that carry Lyme disease or other bacterial and viral agents, and to mosquitoes that transmit West Nile, chikungunya, dengue, and Zika viruses” (p. 545).

The range of the Aedes aegypti mosquito, for example, a primary vector for dengue, chikungunya, Zika, and yellow fever, is expected to expand considerably worldwide, exposing far larger populations, particularly in Australia, Europe, and North America, to those viruses. According to one recent study, well before the end of the 21st century, 68%–80% of human populations may share their environments with Aedes aegypti and thus be vulnerable to the diseases that mosquito can carry, with the percentages depending on the climate change scenario that actually unfolds, (https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10584-016-1679-0). In general, lower greenhouse gas emissions translate to less risk for human health.

Risk of mosquito-borne diseases in general is to be understood not just in terms of the range of a particular mosquito species but also in terms of mosquito “disease danger days.” As an August 2018 report published at Climate Central points out, “there’s an elevated risk of disease transmission [assuming disease is present] when temperatures are between 61 degrees and 93 degrees Fahrenheit.” The report notes the circumstances required for disease transmission: “In addition to needing the proper climatological factors for the mosquito to survive and transmit disease, there needs to be the establishment of the disease in the first place — having the proper climatic conditions, a critical density of mosquitoes, and the conditions for the sustained cycle of disease transmission itself. And, in order to transmit disease, a mosquito must bite twice — once to acquire the disease [itself], and a second time to pass it on. The largest number of these twice-biting mosquitoes were produced at 75 degrees Fahrenheit.” (http://www.climatecentral.org/news/us-faces-a-rise-in-mosquito-disease-danger-days-21903)

Climate Central analyzed weather data for 244 US cities to determine the number of disease danger days each city faces now as the climate warms. They found that 94%, or 229, of the cities they studied are already seeing an increase in the number of days when average temperatures fall within the optimal range for mosquito-borne disease transmission. Some areas, however, may become too hot for the mosquitoes themselves. Phoenix, for example, actually has fewer disease transmission danger days than it did previously because of the number of extremely hot days the city must contend with. All in all, only 12 cities are experiencing a decrease in disease danger days. As the climate warms, the report concludes, Americans face heightened risks for dengue, Zika, chikungunya, and West Nile (http://www.climatecentral.org/news/us-faces-a-rise-in-mosquito-disease-danger-days-21903).

The 2015–2016 Zika outbreak drove home the hazards of mosquito-borne diseases, as Zika took a terrible toll on the development of one in seven unborn children whose mothers were exposed to the otherwise generally mild virus (https://www.contagionlive.com/publications/contagion/2018/october/zika-where-are-we-now). Babies were born with microcephaly and/or other birth defects such as vision problems, deafness, and epilepsy. Their lives and their family’s lives were forever changed from what might have been.

In 2018, Zika has not made many headlines in the US, and the case count is down. As of December 4, 2018, the provisional case count for US States is 58 for the year, all travelers returning from affected areas. US territories have reported 116 Zika cases, with the virus presumably transmitted through local populations of infected mosquitoes (https://www.cdc.gov/zika/reporting/2018-case-counts.html). Case counts aside, the virus remains a threat – nothing has changed about its intrinsic potential to wreak havoc. It is still active throughout the South and Southeast Asia region, and some districts in India saw worrisome outbreaks in 2018 (https://www.hindustantimes.com/health/healthwise-new-outbreaks-need-better-disease-surveillance/story-2bSekn9rGCIbWADtk9p2TK.html).

While some experts hypothesize that “herd immunity” has been achieved in areas hardest hit in 2016, Carmen Zorilla, professor of obstetrics and gynecology at the University of Puerto Rico School of Medicine in San Juan, disagrees. She estimates that about 10.5% of pregnant women in Puerto Rico tested positive for Zika during the outbreak – an infection rate not nearly high enough to confer herd immunity. She observes that such viral outbreaks tend to happen in 3–5-year cycles. (https://www.contagionlive.com/publications/contagion/2018/october/zika-where-are-we-now).

Problematically, some 60–80% of Zika cases are asymptomatic, so Zika can readily go undetected and gain a foothold before it is identified in a particular area. Fewer than half of those infected actually seek medical care (https://www.contagionlive.com/publications/contagion/2018/october/zika-where-are-we-now). Most of the time, symptoms, when people do have them, are relatively mild and somewhat flu-like: fever, rash, headache, achy joints and muscles, and conjunctivitis, though in rare instances a Zika infection can lead to Guillain-Barré syndrome. Currently, the CDC recommends Zika testing for pregnant women with possible Zika exposure and for those who experience Zika symptoms after traveling to areas where they might have been exposed to the virus (https://www.cdc.gov/zika/hc-providers/testing-guidance.html).

Is there room in that surveillance net for a Zika outbreak to fire up before it is detected? Definitely so. In 2016, a research team led by Northeastern University professor Alessandro Vespignani and overseen by the Center for Inference and Dynamics of Infectious Diseases, projected the discrepancy between the number of reported Zika cases and the likely number of actual cases. The team’s models projected that the actual number of infections in July 2016 was likely 25 times the number of confirmed cases (https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2016/08/160802133703.htm).

Dr. Vespignani notes that major outbreaks are associated not only with the right air temperature but also with areas of standing water. In many instances, people educated to understand the risks can manage those, emptying the birdbath or flower pot saucers and the like at least once a week; but after major precipitation events magnified by climate change, when there is standing water everywhere, mosquito populations can spike. The sopping US Southeast, where rainfall records were handily broken in 2018, can testify that there is sometimes “water, water everywhere,” to borrow a phrase from Samuel Taylor Coleridge (https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/2018-leaves-its-mark-in-the-rainfall-record-books-across-eastern-southern-us/70007024).

Furthermore, densely populated areas face elevated risk. Juanita Constible, a climate expert at the Natural Resources Defense Council, explains that, for mosquitoes, “extension of habitat is a combination of climate change and human behavior. Urbanization can expand habitats for some species of mosquito that prefer cities [Aedes egypti among them], so as people expand into natural areas, those species will go with them. Not only do urban settings have plenty of habitat and food, but in cities, mosquitoes lack natural predators.” (https://www.citylab.com/environment/2018/10/hurricane-florence-mosquitoes-north-carolina/571912/)

Kate Fowlie, spokesperson for the US CDC, warns, “Mosquito-borne disease outbreaks are difficult to predict. There will be future outbreaks, including large ones, as well as years with reduced transmission, but it is impossible to know when or where these transmission patterns will occur” (https://www.contagionlive.com/publications/contagion/2018/october/zika-where-are-we-now).

It seems obvious that surveillance is key to preventing outbreaks both in the present and in a warming future, but the CDC’s funding for expanded infectious disease surveillance is due to run out in 2019. The CDC is already planning to scale back its participation in the Global Health Security Agenda (GHSA), an early-warning system for infectious disease outbreaks, in 39 of 49 countries (http://www.ghtcoalition.org/blog/global-health-and-medical-research-saved-from-the-chopping-block-in-2018-spending-bill).

While the US will be assisting with infectious disease surveillance in 10 countries, the map of Zika-affected areas around the globe, courtesy of the CDC, is expansive (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/files/zika-areas-of-risk.pdf).

There is a lot of purple on this map, but these are not all the places Zika can go; they are merely places where infection is already a risk. Infected travelers can fly all over the world, and disease-bearing mosquitoes know no borders other than inhospitable habitats. Climate change, as we have seen, will widen the range of vector-borne diseases, sharply increasing the percentage of the global population at risk. Viruses themselves, of course, are moving targets, as they mutate regularly – Zika posed no known risk to the unborn until this century, when a mutation changed what had been a mild pathogen (https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/speaking-of-science/wp/2017/09/28/zika-was-a-mild-bug-a-new-discovery-shows-how-it-turned-monstrous/?utm_term=.af60fd526a41). Scientists also warn us that we may soon be contending with disease-causing bacteria and viruses that have lain dormant for centuries or even millennia, frozen in permafrost that is now melting as the Arctic warms (www.bbc.com/earth/story/20170504-there-are-diseases-hidden-in-ice-and-they-are-waking-up).

As we look ahead, addressing climate change will clearly entail grappling with expanded threats to human health, and one of those threats will be elevated vector-borne disease risks, perhaps coupled with diseases modern medicine has yet to encounter. Climate change mitigation and adaptation, combined with vigilant surveillance, vaccine development, and mosquito population control strategies will all be keys to managing vector-borne disease risks posed by certain species of mosquitoes and ticks.

This commentary has been a deepish dive into just one of the secondary challenges climate change will pose to nations, states, cities, municipalities, and the well-being of Americans. In the instance of Zika, we know that the lifetime cost of caring for one child whose life is profoundly impacted by prenatal exposure to the Zika virus, beyond heartbreak, is likely to reach one to ten million dollars (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/23/1/16-1322_article). Human health is just one area in which proactively addressing climate change and adaptation makes both imminent sense and dollars and cents. Again, if you are in the Sarasota area on January 25, we hope you will join us at the University of South Florida Sarasota-Manatee for “Adapting to a Changing Climate: Challenges & Opportunities.” Find more information about this one-day event and register here: http://sar.usfsm.edu/event/adapting-to-a-changing-climate/.




Is Climate Warming Creating More Dangerous Hurricanes?

Two Hard-Hitting Hurricane Seasons

Last year was a September to remember in the US as far as hurricanes go. First, Harvey hit Texas with 130-mph winds and thundering rains totaling up to 60 inches in places, setting all-time US rainfall records. Next, Irma created havoc across the Caribbean and Florida as the strongest Atlantic hurricane on record, with 185-mph sustained winds that leveled islands and nearly created a nightmare scenario in Florida. And of course no one will forget Maria, which hit an ill-prepared Puerto Rico with catastrophic results.

Here are some recent pieces in which I describe the effects of these hurricanes:

https://www.cumber.com/key-west-bob-bunting/
http://bobsstocks.com/cuba-caribbean-hurricanes-now/
https://www.sarasotamagazine.com/slideshows/2018/7/1/how-cuba-saved-florida-from-a-category-5-hurricane

From June through August the 2018 hurricane season yielded a slightly elevated number of storms, but all were weak. Elevated wind shear, a near-record cold Atlantic Ocean, and Sahara dust clouds combined to lull us to sleep – that is, until Florence formed in September off the African coast, just as Irma had. This time the track was more northwest, across thousands of miles of open water. Finally, Florence hit a patch of warm water, found low wind shear, and fought off the dust. The result was the first major hurricane of 2018 and one that had a clear shot at the Carolina coast.

Packing 140-mph winds after a 24-hour cycle of super-rapid intensification, Florence was not a storm to discount. The Carolinas are a magnet for Atlantic hurricanes: Think Hazel, Hugo, Gloria, and Donna, among others. But what made Florence even more of a threat was both human denial and the natural slope of the continental shelf, which is shallow and thus amplifies storm surge, especially for storms coming into the coast at right angles. Usually storms approach from the south, not from the east. It makes a difference. Florence came in perpendicular to the coast and acted much like a plow pushing the water at the coast, creating a large storm surge even as the storm itself weakened, striking with top winds of 106 mph.

Like Harvey, this massive storm ground to a halt just as it was making landfall. As with Harvey, record rains pelted North and South Carolina for days, dumping trillions of gallons of water on ground already saturated from a very wet summer. With storm surge and 30+ inches of record-setting rainfall, epic flooding resulted. Many rivers crested at levels that are hit only in a 1000-year flood, inflicting widespread major flooding that continued for weeks and killed not only people but millions of animals, creating billions in losses.

Finally, it was October 2018, and many began to think we were done with hurricanes. After all, at this point, although there had been many weak tropical storms and hurricanes, there had been only one major storm, and now Florence was out of the news.

Back in June, the Sarasota magazine published a nice summary of hurricanes, and I was pleased to be part of the spread of articles. Here is an excerpt from the discussion of Sarasota and hurricanes:
“Sarasota is more vulnerable to storms – like Wilma or Charley – that form in the Caribbean and enter the Gulf of Mexico, usually early or late in hurricane season. (The most perilous time for us, Bunting says, is the first two weeks of October.) But even those storms rarely hit our stretch of the west coast. Because of the shape of Florida’s land mass and atmospheric factors related to the rotation of the earth, they tend instead to make landfall to the south, often around Naples, and travel east across Florida, or to curve north and hit the northern Gulf Coast.

“Does this mean we can breathe easy? Hardly, says Bunting, who confesses, ‘I couldn’t sleep’ during the days that Irma threatened our coast. ‘All it takes is one,’ he says. ‘Only one.’”

You can read the entire article(s) here: https://www.sarasotamagazine.com/articles/2018/6/27/major-hurricanes-rarely-hit-our-region-here-s-why

Sure enough, in the second week of October a weak tropical system emerged south of Cuba, in the area climatologically favorable for late-season hurricane formation. This worrying development was made even more scary by a very warm loop current in the Gulf of Mexico, which was moving warmer than normal sea-surface temperatures off the West Florida Centennial Shelf northward to a position near the Big Bend region of Florida. Tropical Storm Michael entered the Gulf, and as it moved almost due north, it began to strengthen.

At first a Category 1 hurricane, Michael soon sucked energy from the warm loop current and intensified with a bang! During the next 24 hours the storm churned northwest of Sarasota toward Mexico Beach in northwest Florida. The Category 1 storm exploded to a very strong Category 4 with 155-mph winds; and the eye wall, surrounding a pinpoint eye, struck Mexico Beach and surroundings like a large tornado, complete with a storm surge. Wiping the Earth’s surface clean at the impact point, Michael registered the third lowest pressure ever recorded in the eye of a US hurricane making landfall – 919 mb. Imagine the panic of people watching the radar images like the one below as the storm approached the beach.

Hurricane Michael ravaged the town of Mexico Beach, Fla

Note, too, the small eye surrounded by the red eye wall as Michael ravaged the town of Mexico Beach. As the hours passed, much of northwest Florida and parts of Georgia saw record wind speeds and mass destruction totaling billions.

Is Climate Change Responsible?

Are hurricanes getting stronger because of climate warming? Are nature’s largest storm events and the rainfall totals they bring being magnified by the climate change? Is humanity responding to the threats or simply ignoring reality in hopes that the threats will go away or that our descendants will mitigate them later? Does sea level rise play a role in what appears, to the uninitiated, to be worsening storm impacts? Are we still dealing with critics who say that what we are seeing is nothing unusual or that everything can be blamed on a warming climate?

Let’s answer these questions to the extent that they can be answered. While 2017–18 featured the strongest set of hurricanes ever recorded, there isn’t enough evidence yet to say that hurricanes are stronger now than they have been in the past. This year, including Florence and Michael, has been above normal with regard to the number of storms (15) but normal with respect to the number of major hurricanes (2). Those two storms happened to hit the Mid-Atlantic Coast and Gulf Coast. It just takes one such event to change perceptions, and we had two.

But it is accurate to say that for each degree the air warms, it can hold nearly 4% more water. It is also accurate to say that warmer ocean waters have more heat potential, thereby increasing storm intensity, all other things being equal. So while the recent record of hurricanes does not prove in a statistical sense that hurricanes are more intense because of a rapidly warming climate, there is room for legitimate concern.

Explosive storm development also seems to be different and more concerning than in the past. Harvey, Irma, Florence, and Michael all had 24-hour periods during which they exploded from Category 1 to Category 4 or 5! Warmer sea-surface temperatures are clearly one major factor. In heavily populated areas, if such explosive storm development occurs, evacuation just cannot happen in time. How to deal with this issue will be one of the most talked-about topics for years to come as we learn how to adapt to climate-warming issues.

There is also evidence that heavier rain events are being caused in some part by the warming climate. First, as noted above, warmer air can hold more moisture; but also, as the earth warms, the jet streams tend to set up further north and are weaker than was normal for most of the 20th century. These two factors mean that storms hold more rain and tend to slow down and meander rather than moving at a brisk clip with the help of jet stream winds. Harvey and Florence certainly did just that, and I agree with the IPCC conclusion that slower-moving storms with heavier precipitation are becoming more common.

What, if anything, are we doing about these trends? Certainly, an effort is occurring in the US and other countries to limit greenhouse gases, with or without the Paris Agreement, and much more is needed in both the short and long term. But with regard to hurricanes in North Carolina, there has been little action to protect the eroding shoreline. A recent news article tells the story:
https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/north-carolina-sea-level-rise-hurricane-florence_us_5b985a87e4b0162f4731da0e

In Florida, local communities are getting more involved in protecting themselves, but still there is still too little happening on state and regional levels.

Sea level is now rising about an inch every seven to eight years now. Along the North Carolina coast the sea level has risen about 6.5 inches since 1950. When storm surges occur on top of even a modest sea level rise and the continental shelf is shallow, the surge/flood impacts from both major and minor hurricanes are amplified. This was the case with Category 2 Florence!

An interesting point and counterpoint were recently raised in California regarding climate warming, at the Climate Action Summit (https://www.globalclimateactionsummit.org) in San Francisco, which featured many impressive and interesting presentations.

One troubling takeaway was the emphasis on attributing every bad weather event, from droughts to fires and floods, to climate warming. Fires, floods, and droughts have been around for a very long time. The key point, however, is that our climate is warming much faster now than climatic changes have unfolded in the past. Changes that used to take thousands of years are being compressed into decades. This precipitous rate of change is what is so troubling!

The counterpoint was a series of panel discussions organized by a group called the Hartland Foundation, specifically to rebut the Climate Action Summit and climate warming in general. See https://youtu.be/5_XSrrw4DDc.

This group was less impressive and seemed to focus more on PR than scientific discussion. I was struck by the dearth of IPCC members or representation from first-rate science institutions at this gathering. This group failed to identify the rate of climate warming as unusual and highly correlated to human-generated greenhouse gas emissions.

Ignoring what is and hoping for the best is not a strategy. Shooting the messenger , climate science, is costing us big-time, but perhaps the lessons from Florence will lead to a more reasoned and action-oriented approach. As many readers know, I am not in the camp that expects worst-case scenarios of sea level rise by 2100. See my article
https://www.cumber.com/guest-commentary-by-bob-bunting-its-getting-hotter/.

But there is no reason to believe that the past and current trend of sea level rise will suddenly stop and good reason to believe, on the other hand, that the rate will increase as global temperatures continue to rise.

Evidence Calls for Action

While fair debate is welcome and needed, dismissing climate warming as nonexistent is not helpful, nor is sensationally predicting the end of the world by 2100. What is helpful is concerted action to mitigate the impacts of the most likely climate-warming scenarios. Preventing further damage to the climate by limiting greenhouse emissions, pushing technological solutions, and promoting scientific understanding are key to being successful – as I know we can be!

Policy reacts to the will of society but with a time lag. That’s why it’s so important to study this issue and not be drawn in by polarizing positions. It is all too easy to jump on bandwagons, but the answers are now largely known for those who want to deal with high-probability scenarios. In North Carolina an opportunity was missed on a statewide level. During the 1990s, as I discussed in my previous article published by Cumberland, the US and the world missed an early opportunity to deal with climate warming. Now it’s time for local action that will trickle up rather than down. Perhaps North Carolina and its coastal communities will help lead the way.

Florida is one of most vulnerable areas, with $7T in real estate along the beach lying in harm’s way and with climate-enhanced red tide becoming more of a real problem. Florida has the opportunity to lead the climate adaptation movement for local and regional mitigation of the additional climate changes sure to come in the next decades.

Herein lies a series of opportunities for local and regional coordination through a new center in the Sarasota-Manatee area that can take developing climate science and tailor it for decision makers in state, regional, and local governments. Billions of dollars already being spent can be better utilized for the formation of effective, coordinated, and enduring adaptive solutions.

Also, because the adaptation to climate warming is one of the most important issues of our time, the situation is ripe for entrepreneurs who want to stop talking and start doing! I predict that new business development in this area will create an economic boom for those who can seize the opportunity!

Sarasota -Manatee is ground zero for climate impacts from rising sea levels, explosive hurricane development, and red tide. Because it is, it can be a hub that helps Florida, the region, and local levels to create a platform for academia, government, and the private sector to foster mitigation and adaptation as well as to catalyze economic opportunities that mitigation will surely spark.

Florida and the Sarasota-Manatee area have the expertise, financial resources, and leadership to help broker a more effective approach to dealing with climate-change impacts. It’s time to take the abundant resources we have available and organize them, much as Steve Jobs and company did when they reinvented the phone with the iPhone. They took the pieces that we all use in our daily lives, from music to calendars and from news to maps, and handed them back to us in the form of an “on the go” platform that integrated what already existed into a truly transformative device. That example provides the inspiration that we can do it, too; but this time we are challenged to creatively adapt to deal with an issue that will fundamentally impact all our lives. Stay tuned!

We thank Bob for allowing us to publish his work: Bob Bunting – atmospheric scientist, author, educator, and entrepreneur.


Links to other websites or electronic media controlled or offered by Third-Parties (non-affiliates of Cumberland Advisors) are provided only as a reference and courtesy to our users. Cumberland Advisors has no control over such websites, does not recommend or endorse any opinions, ideas, products, information, or content of such sites, and makes no warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, reliability or suitability of their content. Cumberland Advisors hereby disclaims liability for any information, materials, products or services posted or offered at any of the Third-Party websites. The Third-Party may have a privacy and/or security policy different from that of Cumberland Advisors. Therefore, please refer to the specific privacy and security policies of the Third-Party when accessing their websites.

Sign up for our FREE Cumberland Market Commentaries

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.




January 25th & Gary Shilling

Gary Shilling is an icon of our finance industry. His monthly missive is priceless. Fred Rossi edits and researches. The work product is extraordinary. We thank them for permission to share the December monthly in full. The trigger for our request was their thorough examination of the climate-change debate and the coincident timing, as registration is now open for the January 25th GIC-USFSM conference, Adapting to a Changing Climate: Challenges & Opportunities, to be held at the University of South Florida Sarasota-Manatee.
 
Here is a link to the conference presentations lineup: http://usfsm.edu/climate
 
The conference is fully sponsored, so the registration cost is only 50 bucks to cover lunch and direct costs. Issues such as red tide, hurricane intensity, and rising sea levels are among those to be examined. The purpose of the conference is not to find fault; instead, it is to discuss what to do now and tomorrow and next week and next month.
 
Please take a look at the excellent data assembled by Gary and Fred, starting on page 31 of Gary Shilling’s Insight for December, available here as a PDF file: https://cumber.com/pdf/A.-Gary-Shilling’s-INSIGHT-December-2018-(Climate-Change-A-Look-From-Both-Sides).pdf – page=31.
 
Also look at the latest official US report on climate change, released by the Trump administration on the day after Thanksgiving: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume II: Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation in the United States, https://nca2018.globalchange.gov/.  
 
Another valuable source of reliable analysis of climate change comes from the Becker Friedman Institute for Economics of the University of Chicago. Their working paper 2018-51 is entitled “Valuing the Global Mortality Consequences of Climate Change Accounting for Adaptation Costs and Benefits” (August 2018). It’s available here: https://bfi.uchicago.edu/Greenstone-WP-201851.
 
We hope that you will join us at the USFSM auditorium on January 25 for the conference. Please forward this message to anyone who might be interested in this subject.

GIC & USFSM - Adapting to a Changing Climate - Challenges & Opportunities




Climate Change Resources

Cumberland Advisors is a sponsor of the upcoming USF-GIC event,

“Adapting to a Changing Climate: Global to Local Impact”

GIC & USFSM - Adapting to a Changing Climate - Challenges & OpportunitiesClimate Change Resources

Cumberland Advisors, the Global Interdependence Center, the University of South Florida Sarasota-Manatee, the Science and Environment Council and Atlas Insurance are the primary sponsors in this event that will feature Bob Bunting among other luminaries invited for this very important discussion.

In this post you’ll find a compilation of resources that can be referenced as part of the ongoing conversation on climate change and its impact.

Event links

USFSM Website & Event Registration: http://usfsm.edu/climate

Flyer for event:

(Long URL) https://www.cumber.com/pdf/USFSM-GIC-January-25-2019-Agenda-for-Adapting-to-a-Changing-Climate-Global-to-Local-Impact.pdf

(Short URL) https://buff.ly/2QqOQY9

Cumberland Advisors Commentaries

123

Research

Red Tide Current Status: http://myfwc.com/redtidestatus

NASA Climate Change Resources: https://climate.nasa.gov/resources/

Press Releases

123

Press Coverage

Sarasota Magazine – Climate Change Conference Set for Jan. 25.




Climate Change Conference Set for Jan. 25

Excerpt of Sarasota Magazine’s…

Climate Change Conference Set for Jan. 25

Topics will include the implication of rising sea levels for Florida, the effect of climate change on hurricanes, whether climate change worsens red tide and more.

By Staff 12/4/2018 at 10:37am

Cumberland Advisors, the Global Interdependence Center, the University of South Florida Sarasota-Manatee, the Science and Environment Council and Atlas Insurance are organizing a conference that will examine “Adapting to a Changing Climate.” The featured speaker will be Bob Bunting…

Read full article at Sarasota Magazine.




January 25th and California Fires

The January 25th GIC-USFSM conference on adaptive climate change, Adapting to a Changing Climate: Challenges & Opportunities, to be held at the University of South Florida Sarasota-Manatee, includes discussion of fires as well as hurricanes. Here is a recent Bloomberg story for reference: “What Wildfires and Hurricanes Mean for the Global Economy” (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-11-22/what-wildfires-and-hurricanes-mean-for-the-global-economy).

2018 has been a horrible and murderous year for fires. We all know that. The issue for climate change deniers and for climate change believers is whether we can expect normalcy or whether something is different now, requiring adaptive solutions. January 25 will focus on that question.

Cumberland Advisors is proud to sponsor this conversation, which presents skilled professionals in a transparent and independent forum. Attendance costs only $50 to cover lunch (registration here).

Now we offer a guest commentary about the California fires. We thank our good friend and GIC board colleague Philippa Dunne for sharing her essay with our readers. Philippa is coeditor of three  macroeconomic newsletters – The Liscio Report, which has a trading focus, Sightlines Bulletin, which offers “concise data-driven monthly analyses of the direction of the American economy,” for professionals and academics, and TLR Wire, frequent, short notes and graphs on important aspects of fresh data missed by the mainstream intended for all readers You can learn more about both and subscribe at http://www.tlranalytics.com.

California Fires, by Philippa Dunne

Two differences jump out when we attend conferences with a higher percentage of speakers who were not born in the US, but may teach here, and we share these now as observations, not criticism. There is considerably more concern voiced about the effects of market concentration and pricing power, which we have outlined; and there is a general sense that US citizens, perhaps especially those in the financial markets, are not accurately anticipating the market impacts when, say, lawsuits and insurance claims caused by extreme weather start rolling in at an ever faster pace.

I grew up in Malibu, where fires were a central part of my childhood.

Every fire has its own unforgettable personality. One marches as a belligerent wall, missing little in its path to the shore; one changes its mind at the last minute, trapping the fire crews and their equipment on the wrong side of the column; and some, like the recent Woolsey fire, flame seemingly in all directions, pouncing on areas the size of football fields in a second.

And they all have different ways of introducing themselves. Sometimes a bunch of tumbleweeds thud into the house: the Santa Ana wind. Sometimes sirens race up the highway; by the time I was five, I could tell which canyon they turned into; and sometimes I would first see reflected flames flickering in my window. Then it’s grab all the animals and your toothbrush, unlock all the doors and gates for the firemen, kiss the ground by your bedroom door with hope, and head for the Georgian Hotel in town. From our rooms there we would stay up all night, looking out across the bay as the unspeakably beautiful flames winged up and down the mountains, seemingly in silence although we knew they were panting.

Firefighting is a male-dominated field. The first female firefighter in this country was Molly Williams, Volunteer #11, a slave owned by a New York City merchant. There have been all-female forest crews since the 1920s, but in the US only 2% of firefighters are women. Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti promised that by 2020, 5% of the LAFD will be women; currently that’s 3.5%. I’m not being sexist when I refer to my wonderful childhood heroes as men.

An owl lands on the beach; a coyote limps on singed foot pads, showing no interest in a fleeing rabbit. A firefighter staggers in the wind.

The fires have always been unpredictable and terrifying, but they have moved into a new dimension. The Paradise fire has set records, but the recent Woolsey fire that flew to the beach in west Malibu, bad as it was, isn’t up to today’s standards. In 1970, the Santa Ana, blowing at 80 miles an hour and gusting to twice that, drove a 30-mile wall of fire from Newhall to Malibu. First we heard it mentioned on the news, and then it was barreling over the mountain so quickly that we barely had time to load up the animals. It did take out the Spahn Ranch, where Charlie Manson and his crew lived (no comment), but also the iconic Serra Retreat, a real loss. That fire was a record-setter then, but it isn’t even in the top twenty these days.

I recently visited friends in Santa Barbara and finally saw firsthand the incomprehensible destruction in the path of the fire and floods of last year. One friend, a real estate agent in Montecito, one of the most idyllic places on earth, said that he is having a tough time determining if business is slow because of interest rates or because buyers are afraid to invest in multi-million-dollar properties threatened by fires and rushing mud. We drove through the slide area: Geologists are still calculating how much the mud (A Look Inside the Montecito Disaster Probe), the consistency of honey and traveling at up to 27 miles an hour, was needed to launch “giant boulders” down the washes.

Thank you, always, to the fire crews, both the pros and the inmate volunteers making $2 a day (and $1 an hour when they are fighting active fires) – may many more go on to join Cal Fire; to the California Highway Patrol – you haven’t lived until a CHP yells at you to “gun it” in order to get over a smoldering divider; and to the migrant farmers who kept working in the fields through the smoke.

My job during the fires was always to drag panicked horses out of their stalls and onto the beach. They really do run back into burning barns. To give you an idea what it’s like, during the Newhall-Malibu fire I was pulling a mare across the sand when I noticed I was stumbling inexplicably, or so I thought. I looked down at my foot, now in slow motion, which was sitting on a board. I picked up my foot and the board came with it, held by a large nail that I couldn’t feel. A stranger ran over, said “It’s okay to scream,” pulled the board off, and raced me across the sand to the vet’s office. I got a tetanus shot and no other treatment. There was no time for that. And mine was just an ordinary fire experience.

No horses were lost in that canyon, but we feel a bit like those horses right now. We’re not a political newsletter, and this is one of the most divisive topics in our country right now. Voicing these opinions could lose subscribers, but we are willing to take that risk. We all have different opinions and want to hear yours.

The optimistic approach is the one that takes steps to slow the climate changes that produce increasingly heavy weather and the historic droughts that make devastating fires more likely. Stephen Pekar, who runs the paleoclimate research lab at the City University of New York, among his many other activities, notes that climate changes are now taking place between 100 and 1000 times faster than they have in the past. To get to the point of taking steps to curb climate change, we have to change the conversation. The risk is asymmetrical – didn’t that Schopenhauer guy have something to say about that? While it’s true that there have always been dramatic shifts in climate, the drivers of those shifts can be measured, and they do not fully account for what we are seeing. We all need to know what the cores drawn from the Greenland ice sheet are telling us. That key research is beautifully chronicled in Richard Alley’s Two-Mile Time Machine (https://www.amazon.com/Two-Mile-Time-Machine-Abrupt-Climate/dp/0691102961). Otherwise we have only opinions.

There are tremendous opportunities in the renewable energy sector, jobs that would help balance the increasingly unequal opportunities available to our working classes. For renewable sources to really take off, we’d have to drop subsidies for the fossil-fuel producers and let the markets work. When the mechanization of our farms sent farm work tumbling from something like 30% of the workforce to the current 1–3%, depending on how you jigger the numbers, the transition was largely enabled by the war effort. Workers were moved from the farms into the factories, and much of what they made was battle-related. Had they been left in the rural areas to fend for themselves, as so many of our machinists have been, what would have happened? Of course, we’d advocate for a green-energy rebuild and retrofitting, not more weaponry, and the tools are ready at hand.

Frank Nutter, head of the Reinsurance Association of America, told writer Eugene Linden a quarter of a century ago that “global warming could bankrupt the [reinsurance] industry.” Linden also points out that while the Insurance Information Institute was singling out Florida as having the greatest exposure to the combined effects of a changing climate, Governor Rick Scott and Senator Marco Rubio went on record to dismiss the threat.

Cargill’s Gregory Page agreed to be on the board of bipartisan Risky Business, which aims to put a price on all of this. You can tell he doesn’t like being there, and good for him for stepping up. He did say he was willing to do so only because the outfit aims to document risks, not look for solutions. Whatever, but he did add that in agriculture the “threat of long-term weather-pattern changes cannot be ignored.”

The IMF produced a 2015 report (https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2015/09/28/04/53/sonew070215a) showing that around the world fossil fuel subsidies amount to $5.3 trillion, or 6.5% of world GDP. Climate-minded economists reckon it would take 1% of world GDP to devise and implement remediation. But that $5.3T amounted to more than total health spending of all the world’s governments at the time. Apparently, the IMF rechecked their work when they saw their results, and we rechecked ours. (Read that again if you need to.)

Around the world we’re using big tax dollars to support a backward-looking sector, making it harder to implement programs tailor-made to get us beyond stagnant wage growth of our middle classes. Although fossil fuel operations lift wages in a slim tranche of well-paid workers, they are not engines of job creation. Green projects, whether they be high-tech explorations or muscle-power retrofits, create jobs that pay well, and retrofits are labor-intensive. They also offset municipal costs for heating and cooling, and cutting back on the time we spend stuck in traffic jams would raise productivity. There’s a lot more data; but as long as people see climate change as an ideological battle, data do not help much. We’ll be happy to send links; just email Philippa: philippa@panix.com

Cue in the creative destruction of a true market economy.


Here is the link to the latest US government report on climate change. We recommend perusal with and open mind and a willingness to alter views: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume II: Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation in the United States, https://nca2018.globalchange.gov.

For more information on how to join us in this important conversation at the January 25th GIC-USFSM conference, please visit www.usfsm.edu/climate.

GIC & USFSM - Adapting to a Changing Climate - Challenges & Opportunities
 

David R. Kotok
Chairman and Chief Investment Officer
Email | Bio


Links to other websites or electronic media controlled or offered by Third-Parties (non-affiliates of Cumberland Advisors) are provided only as a reference and courtesy to our users. Cumberland Advisors has no control over such websites, does not recommend or endorse any opinions, ideas, products, information, or content of such sites, and makes no warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, reliability or suitability of their content. Cumberland Advisors hereby disclaims liability for any information, materials, products or services posted or offered at any of the Third-Party websites. The Third-Party may have a privacy and/or security policy different from that of Cumberland Advisors. Therefore, please refer to the specific privacy and security policies of the Third-Party when accessing their websites.

Sign up for our FREE Cumberland Market Commentaries

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.




Red Tide, January 25th Sarasota Conference on Climate Change

The January 25th GIC-USFSM conference, Adapting to a Changing Climate: Challenges & Opportunities, to be held at the University of South Florida Sarasota-Manatee, is open to the public. The sponsors, including Cumberland, helped so as to allow the cost of registration to be held to $50, a registration fee that covers the lunch.

GIC & USFSM - Adapting to a Changing Climate - Challenges & Opportunities
 

Climate-change believers and deniers are welcome. The purpose of the event is to put facts and details in the public domain for discussion.

Red tide and the toxins it carries are among the issues we will take up. Ask any Sarasota restauranteur or hotel manager what has happened to business these last few months, and the economic impact on Florida becomes clear. All political personalities interested in mitigating the effects of red tide on their jurisdictions are welcome to attend or send staff.

Let me get to a specific health issue related to red tide. I will start with a quoted email from a national personality whom I know personally. He contracted an illness believed to be a result of breathing red tide toxin or the related algae bloom toxin.

He wrote:

“I’ve easily found articles with various analyses of probable causality between bodily responses to Brevetoxins and auto-immune system responses generally associated with organizing pneumonia.

“The experts I have want to identify similar episodic correlations in order to study specific trends and narrow the range of potential causality.

“Has your group associated among any Florida pulmonologists that have seen similar cases?

“One of the fundamental issues may be that the primary group at risk of serious chronic illness is visitors that have no prior immunities from low doses of Brevetoxin exposure. They suffer the effects of a red tide bloom of Karenia brevis algae and then leave Florida before any of the major chronic illness symptoms appear.

“They know they are sick but have no contact with medical professionals that understand normal red tide irritations. That now seems to be the primary missing link.

“Research is so much fun (if only I didn’t have to concurrently live the experience).”

My friend also sent this report:

“David,

“Initial biopsy result on the biggest spot in my lung found ‘organizing pneumonia’ and no malignancy – good news.

“The point at which the coughing and respiratory irritation that resulted in this particular ‘pneumonia’ began, however, directly coincides with my exposure to red tide in April. My med records are very clear that there was no cough or other irritation symptoms before that exposure.

“If there would be any interest in this situation among you and your friends, let’s talk.

“I’m going to enjoy Thanksgiving with family and head to FL. If there’s interest, maybe we can gather and discuss a follow-up for the public health of FL, as Judy and I traverse the Tampa area after Thanksgiving.

“My AA pulmonologist and I will do more to follow up in Dec. I’ve got numerous other spots we need to analyze further before declaring ‘victory.’”

Dear reader: My point of this personal story is direct. This could be you or me. Research and discussion are needed. And what we’re dealing with here is a second-order effect of climate change, just like growing hurricane intensity and rising sea levels.

We are going to have a full auditorium on January 25, with thorough presentations and discussions of facts.

Below is a series of extracts and links on the red tide and toxin issues:


“Harmful Algal Bloom (HAB)-Associated Illness… Harmful algal blooms (HABs) are the rapid growth of algae that can cause harm to animals, people, or the local ecology. A HAB can look like foam, scum, or mats on the surface of water and can be different colors. HABs can produce toxins that have caused a variety of illnesses in people and animals. HABs can occur in warm fresh, marine, or brackish waters with abundant nutrients and are becoming more frequent with climate change.”
(Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, https://www.cdc.gov/habs/index.html)


“Exposure to harmful algal bloom toxins found in cyanobacteria (blue green algae) or Karenia brevis red tide can cause severe illness in pets, livestock, and wildlife when contaminated water is ingested or when animals lick their fur after swimming.”
(Florida Dept. of Health, http://www.floridahealth.gov/environmental-health/aquatic-toxins/aquatic-toxins-program-animal-health.html)

“About Red Tide… Algae are vitally important to marine ecosystems, and most species of algae are not harmful. However, under certain environmental conditions, microscopic marine algae called Karenia brevis (K. brevis) grow quickly, creating blooms that can make the ocean appear red or brown. People often call these blooms ‘red tide.’

“K. brevis produces powerful toxins called brevetoxins, which have killed millions of fish and other marine organisms. Red tides have damaged the fishing industry, shoreline quality, and local economies in states such as Texas and Florida. Because K. brevis blooms move based on winds and tides, pinpointing a red tide at any given moment is difficult.

“ASSESSING THE IMPACT ON PUBLIC HEALTH

“In addition to killing fish, brevetoxins can become concentrated in the tissues of shellfish that feed on K. brevis. People who eat these shellfish may suffer from neurotoxic shellfish poisoning, a food poisoning that can cause severe gastrointestinal and neurologic symptoms, such as tingling fingers or toes.

“The human health effects associated with eating brevetoxin-tainted shellfish are well documented. However, scientists know little about how other types of environmental exposures to brevetoxin—such as breathing the air near red tides or swimming in red tides—may affect humans. Anecdotal evidence suggests that people who swim among brevetoxins or inhale brevetoxins dispersed in the air may experience irritation of the eyes, nose, and throat, as well as coughing, wheezing, and shortness of breath. Additional evidence suggests that people with existing respiratory illness, such as asthma, may experience these symptoms more severely.”
(Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, https://www.cdc.gov/hab/redtide/pdfs/about.pdf)


Here are additional red tide resources:

“Harmful Algal Bloom (HAB)-Associated Illness… Publications, Data, & Statistics”
(Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, https://www.cdc.gov/habs/publications.html)

Here is the link to the latest US government report on climate change. We recommend perusal with an open mind and a willingness to alter views: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume II: Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation in the United States, https://nca2018.globalchange.gov/.

For more information on how to join us in this important conversation, please visit www.usfsm.edu/climate

David R. Kotok
Chairman and Chief Investment Officer
Email | Bio


Links to other websites or electronic media controlled or offered by Third-Parties (non-affiliates of Cumberland Advisors) are provided only as a reference and courtesy to our users. Cumberland Advisors has no control over such websites, does not recommend or endorse any opinions, ideas, products, information, or content of such sites, and makes no warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, reliability or suitability of their content. Cumberland Advisors hereby disclaims liability for any information, materials, products or services posted or offered at any of the Third-Party websites. The Third-Party may have a privacy and/or security policy different from that of Cumberland Advisors. Therefore, please refer to the specific privacy and security policies of the Third-Party when accessing their websites.

Sign up for our FREE Cumberland Market Commentaries

Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.




Sarasota and Manatee Counties remember 9/11 at USF

SARASOTA & MANATEE- First responders, students, veterans’ groups, and members of the community gathered in USF Sarasota-Manatee’s courtyard for an inaugural 9/11 remembrance ceremony Tuesday morning.

SNN TV - Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - September 11

America was a nation struck by chaos and grief.

“It was a monumental event in our history and I think we are still absorbing what it means,” said David Kotok, 9/11 survivor.

17 years later, it’s a time to come together as a community. Beginning with 2,977 flags planted in the university’s courtyard to honor each victim.

 

 

“The patriotism and resiliency of the American people shine brightly on the 11th of September 2001,” said Veterans Service Administrator for USF-SM, Carlos Moreira .

The ceremony recognized our first responders.

Article continues at SNN TV.