Excerpt from Barron’s Too Many Uncertainties 06/21/2019 By Paul Farrell Barron’s writer, Paul Farrell, assembles a collection of outtakes for his piece titled, “Too Many Uncertainties.” Destabilizing Second-Quarter 2019 Review by William Witherell, Ph.D. of Cumberland Advisors June 20: The factors that have led to high volatility in the global equity markets during the quarter […]
Bucking the trend of the fourth quarter of 2018, the US stock market has had a solid first quarter in 2019 – the best performance since 1998. Our quantitative strategy produced multiple entry signals between late October and Christmas Eve. An exit signal occurred near the end of February and the first entry group went […]
From the trade war to the Fed, the fourth quarter of 2018 has been full of uncertainty, which is markets’ least favorite scenario. The US equity market posted one of the worst October numbers since the financial crisis. The NASDAQ tumbled 9% in October, marking its worst monthly drop since November 2008. Although the […]
Our quantitative strategy at Cumberland Advisors is a trading model that combines fundamental indicators and quantitative analysis into a binary output – either fully invested or all in cash. The strategy trades the S&P 500 in two versions: unleveraged and leveraged. Specifically, the leveraged portfolio uses a leveraged ETF as our vehicle to track 3X […]
VIX, the “fear gauge,” measures S&P 500 near-term volatility by using options that expire in 23–37 days. Therefore, the VIX we often discuss is the 1-month volatility index. However, the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) also publishes 3-month (VIX3M) and 6-month (VIX6M) volatility indexes, which are less well known. The 3-month and 6-month VIX indexes […]
Turkey to Face More Volatility, Cumberland Advisors CIO Says Bloomberg Daybreak: Australia June 24th, 2018, 7:07 PM EDT David Kotok, chairman and chief investment officer of Cumberland Advisors Inc., talks about Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s victory in Turkey’s presidential election, the implications for the nation’s economy and financial markets. He speaks with Yvonne Man on “Bloomberg […]
While the U.S. stock market had a long overdue correction in February of 2018, the first quarter ended merely flat eventually. Continuing from the rebound since February low, the stock market kept rising strongly in the second quarter. Out of the three major indexes, the NASDAQ is leading the race by miles ahead. The […]
In this note we take a closer look at Japan, where the equity market has also so far weathered some very dramatic domestic political storms. The Japanese economy is participating in the global economic recovery that is projected to continue at least through this and next year, and in the accompanying strong growth in global trade, which should persist unless a serious trade war develops.