Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (Aug 12, 2019 – Aug 16, 2019)

The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team. These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.

MATT MCALEER’S WEEKLY RECAP

This week, we talk about:

-Whip in the Market
-Where the NASDAQ & DOW are
-Fixed Income Market
-Value in the Muni Market
-Where did we nibble?
-How about Gold?
-What do we think will happen next week?
-Our opinion on Yield Curve Experts
-Do we trade the economy? No.
-Thursday’s put/call ratio
-What we look for to make us move on our Quant Strategy

Matt enjoys your feedback. You can reach him at:
-Link to Matt’s Email: Matthew.McAleer@Cumber.com
-Link to Matt’s Twitter: https://twitter.com/MattMcAleer4
-Link to Matt’s LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/matthew-mcaleer-9415b16/

Watch this week’s video below or at this link: https://youtu.be/KEwEdA-mVsc


We’re fresh back this week from another “Camp Kotok,” an annual gathering at Leen’s Lodge in a remote part of Maine. The August event was a 50-person group that encompassed diverse political views, financial and economic specialties, and asset class focused from cannabis to currency trading, real estate to debt of all types, stock markets and ETFs, derivatives and futures, and more. Over $1 trillion in managed assets were represented as we gathered for each informal meal. No lecterns or PowerPoints. The China Panel and the MMT panel were on the record and now public domain; the press and public are free to use the video footage and quote the speakers. Other discussions were conducted under the Chatham House Rule. What follows belong is some of the content and discussions that resulted. More is forthcoming. Enjoy. -David



This 2019 Camp Kotok talk session features panelists Michael Drury (Chief Economist for McVean Trading & Investments, LLC.), Jonathan D. T. Ward (Founder of Atlas Organization), & Leland Miller (CEO China Beige Book), all offering their take on U.S.-China relations. The panel and audience Q&A are guided by moderator, Lisa McIntire Shaw.


Camp Kotok: Wall Street In The Woods by Dave Nadig

An excerpt…

Our Eyes Are Off The Ball
One of my parlor-tricks for large gatherings of smart people is to ask everyone the same question and then contemplate the spread of answers I get.

In the past, I’ve asked dumb things like “best first album” and smart things like “where’s oil going and why?” This year, my question was: “What’s one thing—a risk, a concern, a data point, a situation—that’s really important, that the rest of the econo-finance-sphere isn’t paying attention to?”

The answers here were dizzying. While there were a few somewhat predictable answers like “we’re in a corporate earnings recession and nobody’s talking about it,” there were also some big surprises for me, such as:

  • The entire global maritime fleet has to change fuel types in five months, and it’s going to cost a ton.
  • The New York PMI (producers manufacturing index) is flashing red-lights about the service-based economy.
  • Geopolitics is being swept under the rug, leaving us open to a “hot war” while we focus on all the economic wars.
  • The risk from Chinese corporates like Huawei is enormous.
  • The degradation of the National Weather Service is going to destroy U.S. agriculture.

The list of terrifying one-liners goes on and on.

Read more at www.etf.com


Camp Kotok MMT panel

Global debt expansion and central bank credibility is a major concern. I refer readers to the MMT panel for a clear, multidimensional discussion of MMT and the Fed’s dilemma: Camp Kotok MMT panel. My personal takeaway is that the Fed needs to step up its game with regard to its communications strategy. Most agreed that putting a name with each dot in the dot plot would be an easy improvement to make. If the Fed had a clear policy statement against negative interest rates, that assurance would help to reduce risk premia. The gathering views negative rates as a spreading financial malignancy. The varied forecasts about proliferating negative rates and their global effects are sobering.  Kotok note: adjusted for most recent inflation reports, the US treasury yield curve is already negative when computing real yields.



Mum’s the word. At least that’s the case here at QI through Sunday. We are traveling to Grand Lake Stream, Maine to attend Camp Kotok, a.k.a. The Shadow Federal Reserve Committee. The beauty of this fishing mecca on the eastern edge of Maine can be captured in one word: pristine. The hatched bald eagles reaching their beaks up to their mothers for that fresh catch of fish. The amber sunsets that demand the silence of those blessed to be in their presence. The tug on the line that stirs the hand-carved canoe on the glassy lake. And the reward of the small mouth bass you reel in, netted with pride by a fourth-generation fishing guide who imparts so much more than guidance through his wisdom and poise.

But there is a whole different sort of peace on offer as we gather at Leen’s Lodge. There is discretion. Camp Kotok is held under Chatham House Rules. As per tradition, “participants are free to use the information received, but neither the identity nor the affiliation of the speaker(s), nor that of any other participant, may be revealed.” We 50 economists and veterans of the financial markets speak freely knowing we are in a safe place to do so. As such, we feast on each other’s insights and views. It is indeed a rich experience.

We receive the Daily Feather and find it timely and informative. Their website describes it as “a forward-looking snapshot of the most pressing developments on the macroeconomic and investing fronts.” Read more or become a subscriber at: https://quillintelligence.com/



Enjoy this chat between Robert Eisenbeis, Ph. D., chief monetary economist at Cumberland Advisors, & Dave Nadig, managing director of ETF.com, as they discuss Facebook’s Libra and Cryptocurrency while taking a break from fishing at Grand Lake Stream, Maine. This is the first of many upcoming dispatches from Camp Kotok. We’re in a remote part of Maine where the weather and internet access both present problems from time to time but the experience, discussions, shared meals, knowledge exchanges, and enduring friendships make it all worthwhile!


What I Learned at Camp Kotok by John Mauldin

An excerpt…

Many participants had read my analysis of the potential for $45 trillion worth of US debt by the end of the 2020s. When I started talking about the potential for $20 trillion of additional quantitative easing, it was clear the question made some uncomfortable.

There was general agreement that neither political party can balance the budget. The latest “deal” between Trump and Congress raised spending $320 billion over the next two years. The previous “sequester” deal that at least tried to limit spending is out the window. With it will go any control on the spending process. Current deficit projections will seem mild compared to what we actually get.

Continue reading at www.mauldineconomics.com



In this 2019 Camp Kotok talk, Cumberland Advisors CEO John Mousseau & Jim Bianco, president and founder of Bianco Research LLC, discuss the Federal Reserve, Fed Independence Political Influence on the Fed, Negative Interest Rates, and more.


Brent-Donnelly’s-Notes-from-Camp-Kotok

An excerpt from Brent Donnelly

Last week I attended my sixth “Camp Kotok”near Princeton, Maine. The event is a gathering of economists, asset managers, traders, research heads and journalists that takes place each August deep in the Northeastern US woods, near the Canadian border. In pastyears the conversation and formal debate/ discussion centered around Fed policy, trade wars, the stock market, inflation and other short and medium-term economic factors. This year the conversation was more super macro and focused on three key long-term themes which discuss one by one. The three themes were:

1. A future where global rates remain permanently near zero
2. Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) and US fiscal strategy
3. A fundamental change in the US/China relationship

Read the full piece here: https://www.cumber.com/pdf/Brent-Donnelly%e2%80%99s-Notes-from-Camp-Kotok-2019.pdf


Are you concerned about the Trade War with China?

 

Lessons from Thucydides by David R. Kotok

David R. Kotok has written the monograph pamphlet, “Lessons from Thucydides” detailing information asymmetries and their implications for investors and world affairs. The concept of a Thucydides Trap and its rise and avoidability (or lack thereof) is often debated and David makes a case for dealing with them weaving current and historical events into a comprehensive narrative.

This free monograph also has lessons for President Donald Trump’s trade policy. Can the United States avoid a Thucydides Trap with China & Xi Jinping?


Download a copy of this monograph in either PDF (free) or Kindle ($.99) format.


Have you subscribed to our YouTube Channel?

Thank you for engaging with us, your comments always welcome.




Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (July 08, 2019 – July 12, 2019)

Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (July 08, 2019 – July 12, 2019)
July 13, 2019
Cumberland Advisors
Weekly Update
Email | About

The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team. These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.

MATT MCALEER’S WEEKLY RECAP

We’re back with another Week in Review from Cumberland Advisors. Matt McAleer is on camera with CEO John Mousseau this week..

We talk about:
-How do we view rates currently?
-What does the current 10 yr yield tell us about the health of the economy?
-What is our outlook for the European markets?
-How does momentum influence our trading decisions?
-How has equal weight held up against cap weight?
-Which sectors are we seeing bounce back?

Have a great weekend and thanks for tuning in!

Watch below or at this link: https://youtu.be/jBGfUBeAzoc


LATEST MARKET COMMENTARY

Sign up or see more Market Commentary

 


IN THE NEWS

See more of the Week in Review here: Check it out.




Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (Jun 17, 2019 – Jun 21, 2019)

The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team. These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback  is always welcome.

Week In Review


** MATT MCALEER’S WEEKLY RECAP **

————————————————————
Matt McAleer is out of the office this Friday. Gabriel Hament stands in with a quick update.

  • – Happy First Day of Summer!
  • – Do you have questions regarding markets, trade, the economy, banking, or anything finance related? Send them our way and we’ll pass them on to David who is up at Camp Kotok for the June 2019 session. David is leading discussions when not fishing in an environment that invites dialogue and collisions between folks from different parts of the finance world giving them opportunities to hone and expand their perspectives under the Chatham House rule.
  • – We invite you to submit questions you have about your personal holdings. We’ll get back to you and share our thoughts and ideas about how a Cumberland investment strategy may fit in your your personal financial picture.
  • – We’re honored and excited to share with you our news: Cumberland Advisors was selected as the 2019 winner within the Professional Services category at the Sarasota Chamber of Commerce’s 29th Frank G. Berlin, Sr. Small Business Awards. Read about it here: https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-news-professional-services-business-of-the-year-award/

Watch below or at these links:

Have a great weekend and a great start to your summer!


** LATEST MARKET COMMENTARY (https://www.cumber.com/category/market-commentary/)
————————————————————

2Q 2019

Review: International Equity ETF https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-2q-2019-review-international-equity-etf/
William Witherell, Ph.D. 06/20/2019

Market Volatility ETF Portfolio 2Q 2019 Review: Rising VIX https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-market-volatility-etf-portfolio-2q-2019-review-rising-vix/
Leo Chen, Ph.D. 06/19/2019

Happy Anniversary! https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-white-house-considers-economist-judy-shelton-for-fed-board/
David R. Kotok 06/18/2019

Turandot https://www.cumber.com/turandot/
David R. Kotok 06/13/2019

What Does “Data-Dependent” Mean? https://www.cumber.com/what-does-data-dependent-mean/
Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D. 06/12/2019

2% or 2% or -0.2%? https://www.cumber.com/2-or-2-or-0-2/
David R. Kotok 06/10/2019

Peter Navarro https://www.cumber.com/peter-navarro/
David R. Kotok 06/07/2019

More on Tariffs https://www.cumber.com/more-on-tariffs/
Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D. 06/06/2019

Jingoism & Rare Earths https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-white-house-considers-economist-judy-shelton-for-fed-board/
David R. Kotok 06/05/2019

EU Election: Negative But Could Have Been Worse https://www.cumber.com/eu-election-negative-but-could-have-been-worse/
William Witherell, Ph.D. 06/03/2019

Fed and Climate Change https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-fed-and-climate-change/
David R. Kotok 05/30/2019

May FOMC Minutes: Patience https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-may-fomc-minutes-patience/
Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D. 05/21/2019

Memorial Day Reflections https://www.cumber.com/memorial-day-reflections/
David R. Kotok 05/27/2019

5G, Huawei, Trade War, Shooting War https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-5g-huawei-trade-war-shooting-war/
David R. Kotok 05/23/2019

Finally, Some Positive Trade News https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-finally-some-positive-trade-news/
William Witherell, Ph.D. 05/21/2019

“Nations, Wars and Liberal Democracy” by George Friedman https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-nations-wars-and-liberal-democracy-by-george-friedman/
George Friedman 05/20/2019

Tariffs – Macroeconomic Versus Microeconomic Effects: In the Long Run We Are All Dead https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-tariffs-macroeconomic-versus-microeconomic-effects-in-the-long-run-we-are-all-dead/
Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D. 05/17/2019

Robert Brusca Ph.D. on Tariffs, Trade, and the Fed https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-robert-brusca-ph-d-on-tariffs-trade-and-the-fed/
Robert Brusca, Ph.D. 05/14/2019

White House Considers Economist Judy Shelton for Fed Board https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-white-house-considers-economist-judy-shelton-for-fed-board/
David R. Kotok 05/13/2019

Sign up or see more Market Commentary https://www.cumber.com/category/market-commentary/

————————————————————


On Friday, June 14, 2019, business and community leaders gathered for the 29th Frank G. Berlin, Sr. Small Business Awards (https://www.sarasotachamber.com/small-business-awards.html) , in Sarasota, Fla. Three finalists were selected across five categories: Hospitality and Tourism, Non-Profit, Products and Services, Retail and Professional Services. We are honored to share that Cumberland Advisors was selected as the winner within the Professional Services category.


IN THE NEWS

Barron’s – Gold Is Surging. How to Play It With ETFs https://www.cumber.com/gold-is-surging-how-to-play-it-with-etfs/
Quoted: David Kotok 06/21/2019

Sarasota Herald-Tribune – USF Sarasota-Manatee scholarship to assist Visible Men Academy graduates https://www.cumber.com/usf-sarasota-manatee-scholarship-to-assist-visible-men-academy-graduates/
Quoted: David Kotok 06/21/2019

Sarasota Chamber of Commerce – Cumberland Advisors News – Professional Services Business of the Year Award https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-news-professional-services-business-of-the-year-award/
Quoted: Cumberland Advisors 06/21/2019

Barron’s – Too Many Uncertainties https://www.cumber.com/too-many-uncertainties/
Quoted: William Witherell, Ph.D. 06/21/2019

POLITICO – Trump revs up his Wayback Machine https://www.cumber.com/trump-revs-up-his-wayback-machine/
Quoted: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D. 06/20/2019

The Market Expects the Fed to Do Its Duty https://www.cumber.com/the-market-expects-the-fed-to-do-its-duty/
Quoted: David Kotok 06/14/2019

Bond Buyer – Municipal calendar grows to $7B as the summer reinvestment season arrives https://www.cumber.com/how-federal-tax-reform-has-impacted-real-estate/
Quoted: John R. Mousseau 05/30/2019

AdvisorHub – Large-Cap Growth Stocks Still Hold Luster https://www.cumber.com/large-cap-growth-stocks-still-hold-luster/
Quoted: David R. Kotok 05/31/2019

POLITICO – Trump’s two-front trade war triggers alarms https://www.cumber.com/trumps-two-front-trade-war-triggers-alarms/
Quoted: David R. Kotok 05/31/2019

Bloomberg – Trade War’s Hammerlock on Bond Market Puts Lower Yields in Sight https://www.cumber.com/trade-wars-hammerlock-on-bond-market-puts-lower-yields-in-sight/
Quoted: David R. Kotok 05/18/2019

CNN Business – Why the US-China trade war won’t last https://www.cumber.com/why-the-us-china-trade-war-wont-last/
Quoted: David R. Kotok 05/14/2019

POLITICO – Markets freak (a little ) https://www.cumber.com/markets-freak-a-little/
Quoted: David R. Kotok 05/08/2019

Bloomberg Radio – Bloomberg Daybreak Asia: Wear a Helmet When Doing Falconry With These Hawks https://www.cumber.com/bloomberg-daybreak-asia-wear-a-helmet-when-doing-falconry-with-these-hawks-radio/
Quoted: David R. Kotok 05/06/2019

Bloomberg Radio – The Fed Decides https://www.cumber.com/the-fed-decides-radio-podcast-bob-eisenbeis-on-bloomberg-markets/
Quoted: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D. 05/02/2019

WisdomTree – A Unique Lens on Risk Management https://www.cumber.com/a-unique-lens-on-risk-management/
Quoted: Matt McAleer 05/01/2019


FEATURED INTERVIEWS

Join David Kotok for recent interviews with Bloomberg & Yahoo Finance.

https://www.cumber.com/recent-tv-appearances/


IN CASE YOU MISSED IT…

Coping with Geopolitical Risk: The Case of South Korea
by David R. Kotok
May 28, 2010
————————————————————
Tensions have reemerged and reached a new peak on the Korean peninsula, following the sinking of a South Korean warship with the loss of 46 sailors, after it was struck by a North Korean torpedo. South Korea moved to cut trade with the North by 50%, denied North Korean ships the use of its sea lanes, and designated the North as its “principal enemy,” a term that has not been used during the past six years of detente. South Korea is calling upon the UN to censure North Korea. The US and South Korea have announced major combined naval exercises. Finally, in what can only be considered a symbolic move, the South has resumed broadcasting propaganda songs across the border. In response, the North banned South Korean ships and planes from using its airspace and sea lanes, said it was cutting all ties with the South, and will expel all South Korean officials from a joint industrial park in the North. Ominously, there are reports that the North Korean leader, Kim Jong-il has ordered the North Korean military to be ready for war. In the most recent escalation of tensions, North Korea threatened to scrap all “military assurance agreements” with South Korea. These agreements are safeguards against accidental armed clashes. They also protect the safety of South Korean workers in that industrial enclave in the North. U.S. and South Korean forces have elevated their five-step alert level by one step to the second highest level. Continued: https://www.cumber.com/coping-with-geopolitical-risk-the-case-of-south-korea/


UPCOMING EVENTS

Our friends at The Global Interdependence Center (GIC) host conferences around the world with an emphasis on stimulating thoughtful, global dialogue on a wide range of issues that affect the international community. This June and July they’re featuring two of our folks from Cumberland Advisors.

On Monday, June 24, 2019, The Global Interdependence Center is returning to Chicago, IL for a conference with the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago to discuss topics such as monetary policy, trade, manufacturing, productivity and labor force issues and to hear a keynote address on globalization by Catherine L. Mann, Ph.D., Global Chief Economist, Citi. John Mousseau will speak during the State of the State’s Fiscal Challenges panel session.

On Thursday, July 11, 2019, at Victor, ID, The Global Interdependence Center and the Bronze Buffalo Foundation gather economists, bankers, academics, and finance industry representatives just outside of Jackson Hole, Wyoming. The Eleventh Annual Rocky Mountain Economic Summit will bring together economists and entrepreneurs from around the country to discuss issues and opportunities relating to the global economy, featuring a talk with David R. Kotok and a keynote address delivered by Tom Barkin, the President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.

You’re invited to join John or David at one of the above events and cost and registration details can be found here: https://www.interdependence.org/events/browse/

See the original formatted Week in Review post at our Email Newsletter site and feel free to share your comments regarding this post or others: https://us8.campaign-archive.com/?u=d6f020f3bd6a1e2c4eb254e6c&id=f01d7cfd44




Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (May 20, 2019 – May 24, 2019)

The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team. These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.

 

MATT MCALEER’S WEEKLY RECAP

Matt was traveling on Friday so David Kotok volunteered to substitute for Matt this week and share with you some thoughts on the world, the market, and where we’re positioned

What’s Happening?

  • We’re enmeshed in an escalating trade war with China
  • President Trump is in Asia for meetings taking place this weekend
  • Caution is warranted under these circumstances
  • From an investor’s view and a professional money manager’s view, risk is high and rising
  • In our various ETF portfolio accounts we have some cash reserves (they are not fully invested today)
  • In the quantitative mathematical strategy, it’s in cash
  • In our bond accounts, they are more defensive and in a barbell

David’s latest commentary provides a little more depth for his video comments and that can be found on the Cumberland Advisors website:
https://www.cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-market-commentary-5g-huawei-trade-war-shooting-war/

We wish all our employees, clients, and friends a happy, safe, and reflective Memorial Day weekend.

Watch below or at this link: YouTube


LATEST MARKET COMMENTARY

 

Sign up or see more Market Commentary


IN THE NEWS

 


IN CASE YOU MISSED IT…

Summer Solstice at Salar de Atacama
by David R. Kotok
Dec 23, 2013

Early Saturday morning, December 21, 2013, we were sitting in the San Pedro de Atacama square, celebrating the solstice south of the equator. Overnight the temperature had fallen to 40°F, but during the day it rose steadily again to about 70°F. Under cerulean blue skies, we were surrounded by small birds chirping, tourist shops, hotels, hikers and trekkers, cyclists, horseback riders, and desert watchers on one side, and a small village church on the other. We thank readers for their comments in response to our commentary regarding Calama, Chile. It was an interesting couple of the days in the Atacama Desert. An oasis is formed by runoff from rain and snow on the Andes side of this very large valley. The highest peaks tower 20,000 feet. On the opposite side the valley is bordered by an older mountain range that is no longer volcanic or actively growing. Those mountains have been eroding for 20 to 40 million years longer than the Andes have and do not feature the dramatic peaks. An oasis in a high or a low desert is still an oasis. Green life, humans, birds, and other animals thrive due to the presence of water. I recall an oasis in Jericho, the lowest in the world, while I am now sitting in the middle of an oasis at over 8,000 feet. The similarities are striking. The surrounding desert, regardless of elevation, is of course extremely dry. There is the same large variation in temperature, day to night, and the two places simply feel much alike. Continued: https://www.cumber.com/summer-solstice-at-salar-de-atacama/


Brother William Geenen is an individual who dedicated his life to helping others. At the age of 19, Geenen joined the Congregation of the Holy Cross of Notre Dame University (C.S.C.). He then advanced his education and earned a master’s degree in education from Loyola University. At Gilmour Academy in Gates Mills, Ohio, Brother Geenen taught English, served as a guidance counselor and principal. Decades later, a visit to Sarasota put him in contact with an ailing friend of his father’s and another man coping with the passing of his wife. On his trip back to Ohio, he thought deeply about the challenges facing Sarasota’s senior population—loneliness, the stressors associated with providing care to an infirm spouse, hunger and access to medical care. With the blessing of his brotherhood, Brother Geenen returned to Sarasota and worked to establish what is now an internationally-recognized, multi-campus delivery of service model for seniors and their caretakers.


Pictured here is Gabriel Hament of Cumberland Advisors, Friendship Centers President & CEO Erin McLeod and Friendship Centers Board Member Vicki Dworski.

This week, Gabriel Hament, Investment Advisor Representative specializing in Foundations, Charitable Accounts and Private Individuals, visited the Sarasota Friendship Centers campus located on the corner of Mound Street and S. Osprey Avenue. “As we entered the main building, a half dozen couples were dancing to a live jazz band in a high-ceilinged great room. To the left, lunch was being served. For a simple snack, visitors are welcome to drop in for a $1.50 hotdog and lemonade and listen to the band. Customers were milling around a thrift shop and further down the hall a card room was filled with bridge players. In the next phase of the tour we visited the clinic where retired medical professionals offer their lifetime of experience to patients who might otherwise visit the ER for medical care. A state-of-the-art dental facility is also on-site.”

Friendship Centers

“We then jogged over to The Caregiving Place which featuring supervised, engaging activities for seniors with cognitive or medical issues. At that moment a service therapy dog was interacting with the Centers’ clients. Within that building is a special meeting area for caregivers who are seeking counsel and support throughout their caregiving journey. The campus is surrounded by expansive green space, buffering it from the traffic flow along Mound.”


We encourage our readers and clients to learn more about the Friendship Centers and its mission “To promote health, dignity and quality of life throughout the journey of aging” by visiting https://friendshipcenters.org.


Links to other websites or electronic media controlled or offered by Third-Parties (non-affiliates of Cumberland Advisors) are provided only as a reference and courtesy to our users. Cumberland Advisors has no control over such websites, does not recommend or endorse any opinions, ideas, products, information, or content of such sites, and makes no warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, reliability or suitability of their content. Cumberland Advisors hereby disclaims liability for any information, materials, products or services posted or offered at any of the Third-Party websites. The Third-Party may have a privacy and/or security policy different from that of Cumberland Advisors. Therefore, please refer to the specific privacy and security policies of the Third-Party when accessing their websites.

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Cumberland Advisors Market Commentaries offer insights and analysis on upcoming, important economic issues that potentially impact global financial markets. Our team shares their thinking on global economic developments, market news and other factors that often influence investment opportunities and strategies.




Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (May 13, 2019 – May 17, 2019)

Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (May 13, 2019 – May 17, 2019)
May 18, 2019

The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team. These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We may also include older commentaries that our editors have determined to be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.

 

MATT MCALEER’S WEEKLY RECAP

The markets are two sided and you can approach them from a half-glass-full or a half-glass-empty perspective. In this week’s video, we talk about:

  • What we really dislike
  • What’s positive
  • What we’re keeping an eye on
  • Cash levels
  • We hate being late!
  • What we’re purchasing
  • What we’ll look to do in a pullback
  • Software
  • Liquidity is king

And Matt McAleer tops it off with some “horse” talk and a nod to what John Mousseau and he likes.

Watch below or at this link: YouTube


LATEST MARKET COMMENTARY

Tariffs – Macroeconomic Versus Microeconomic Effects: In the Long Run We Are All Dead

Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D. 05/17/2019

Robert Brusca Ph.D. on Tariffs, Trade, and the Fed

Robert Brusca, Ph.D. 05/14/2019

White House Considers Economist Judy Shelton for Fed Board

David R. Kotok 05/13/2019

Hope Is Not a Strategy

Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D. 05/07/2019

Brexit Deadlock and Investor Uncertainty

William Witherell, Ph.D. 05/06/2019

Q1 2019 Credit Commentary

Patricia Healy, CFA 05/03/2019

Sign up or see more Market Commentary


IN THE NEWS

Bloomberg – Trade War’s Hammerlock on Bond Market Puts Lower Yields in Sight

Quoted: David R. Kotok 05/18/2019

CNN Business – Why the US-China trade war won’t last

Quoted: David R. Kotok 05/14/2019

POLITICO – Markets freak (a little)

Quoted: David R. Kotok 05/08/2019

Bloomberg Radio – Bloomberg Daybreak Asia: Wear a Helmet When Doing Falconry With These Hawks (Radio)

Quoted: David R. Kotok 05/06/2019

Bloomberg Radio – The Fed Decides (Radio Podcast): Bob Eisenbeis on Bloomberg Markets

Quoted: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D. 05/02/2019

WisdomTree – A Unique Lens on Risk Management

Quoted: Matt McAleer 05/01/2019


Join John Mousseau, Matt McAleer, & David Kotok for interviews this past week.

Cumberland Advisors Recent TV Appearances

LOCALLY

Gabriel Hament pictured here with Donna Maytham
Gabriel Hament pictured here with Donna Maytham, Fine Arts Society President

 

This week, Gabriel Hament, Investment Advisor Representative specializing in Foundations, Charitable Accounts & Private Individuals, attended and participated in the Fine Arts Society of Sarasota’s 2019 Scholarship Awards Luncheon at the Bird Key Yacht Club. Audience members were treated to live violin, piano and trumpet performances by scholarship recipients. Young artists studying graphic design, painting and illustration presented their latest works. Over $46,000 in scholarships were awarded to 12 high school and college students pursuing degrees in music, dance and art and design. Locally, students from Booker High School, Pine View, Sarasota High School and Ringling College of Art and Design were well-represented and recognized for their achievements. The Fine Arts Society of Sarasota has given more than $1 million in grants and scholarships in support of our local art community. To learn more about the good work of the Fine Arts Society of Sarasota, please visit www.fineartsrq.com.

ADDITIONAL RESOURCES

Lessons from Thucydides

David R. Kotok has written the monograph pamphlet, “Lessons from Thucydides” detailing information asymmetries and their implications for investors and world affairs. The concept of a Thucydides Trap and its rise and avoidability (or lack thereof) is often debated and David makes a case for dealing with them weaving current and historical events into a comprehensive narrative.

Thucydides-Trap

This free monograph also has lessons for President Donald Trump’s trade policy. Can the United States avoid a Thucydides Trap with China & Xi Jinping? Will you benefit from the Lessons of Thucydides or fall victim to a Thucydides Trap? If information is key, you now have a handbook at your fingertips. Download a copy of this monograph in either PDF (free) or Kindle ($.99) format. https://www.cumber.com/thucydides/




Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (April 29, 2019 – May 03, 2019)

The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team. These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.

Week In Review

MATT MCALEER’S WEEKLY RECAP

Matt appears in this week’s video with his Kentucky Derby picks, dressed up in Derby attire!

Happy Kentucky Derby Weekend! What are we talking about this round?

  • Volatility
  • Tech Numbers have been solid
  • QQQ & Nasdaq at all time high
  • Concern about Energy
  • S&P Earnings
  • Where to put Cash

And we wrap up with picks for the Kentucky Derby by Matt McAleer, and John Mousseau.

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Week in Review with Matt McAleer

Yesterday, May 3rd, was World Press Freedom Day. We took a moment to stop and reflect on the role of a free press and how it affects our day-to-day lives. The Committee to Protect Journalists (CPJ) states: “Please join us as we pause to recognize the courage and commitment of all those reporting, whether local or global, as press freedom is increasingly threatened around the globe.” You can learn more about CPJ here: https://cpj.org

Cumberland Advisors recently invited Gretchen Morgenson to our conference, “Financial Markets and the Economy – Financial Literacy Day III,” and we encourage you to watch her keynote address, titled “Why Financial Literacy Depends on Press Freedom,” at the link further down in this update. She has some excellent takeaways and anecdotes underscoring how important the press is for an accurate window on what’s happening behind markets and the world of finance.

Her video along with others is on our YouTube channel, updated weekly with Matt’s videos and other content that we produce and feel will be of value to you. Link: https://www.youtube.com/CumberlandAdvisors

Thank you for joining us and have a great Kentucky Derby weekend.


Read the full Cumberland Advisors Week in Review here: Weekly Update.




Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (April 15, 2019 – April 18, 2019)

Week In Review
The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team. These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.

MATT MCALEER’S WEEKLY RECAP

Short week. The equity and bond markets were closed on Friday. We talk about some of John Mousseau’s strategies in the bond market and we plan to get John on camera next week to talk about interest rates and munis. On the equity side, a fairly benign week outside of healthcare. We recall some of the atmosphere from 2016 when healthcare costs were top of mind for politicians and the news cycle. Headline risk creeps in on medical which includes medical device companies and biotech and we take a moment to explain.


April is Financial Literacy Month and Cumberland Advisors just held the event, “Financial Markets and the Economy: Financial Literacy Day III” with our partners at the University of South Florida Sarasota-Manatee. Take an opportunity to check out our YouTube channel and take advantage of the breadth and depth of the subject matters, speakers, and panelists we’ve assembled. Gretchen Morgenson’s keynote address from the conference is up and we’ll be posting more videos over the next week or so including our talk with Susan Harper, the Consul General of Canada in Miami, Florida. www.cumber.com/youtube . In the meantime, here is a link available to the full day of talks and panels to enjoy until our video segmentation process is finished. Enjoy!

Our partners at USF Sarasota-Manatee have provided a streaming video link of Cumberland Advisors’ annual event, “Financial Markets and the Economy – Financial Literacy Day III.” It was an open forum for individual investors, state and local officials, financial institutions, pension trustees, philanthropy activists, policy makers and policy wonks – all were welcome. At Cumberland Advisors, we believe everyone benefits from increased financial education. Topics included but were not limited to philanthropy and its impact and stewardship, financial market developments, the outlook for the U.S. stock market and the world, the U.S. banking system, and the global economic outlook.

We are busy segmenting panels and talks for our YouTube Channel. Until these are produced, below is an outline of the entire day’s activities to help you navigate and select where in the hours long streaming video you’d like to watch:

FEATURED VIDEO

FINANCIAL MARKETS & THE ECONOMY Financial Literacy Day III Full Day Video Link from USFSM

Streaming Video Link

April 11, 2019

8:00 – 8:30 a.m. | Registration and Coffee

8:30 – 9:00 a.m. | Welcoming Remarks

David R. Kotok, CIO, Cumberland Advisors, GIC Board Member

Karen Holbrook, Regional Chancellor, USF Sarasota-Manatee

9:00 – 10:00 a.m. | Session I – The Stock Market

Matt McAleer, Executive VP & Director of Equity Strategies, Cumberland Advisors

Richard Hoey, Senior Economic Advisor to BNY Mellon Wealth Management

Tripp Zimmerman, Director of Research at WisdomTree Asset Management, Inc.

Moderator: Maryanne Waldman, RBC, Boston, MA

10:00 – 10:15 a.m. | Break

10:15 – 11:30 a.m. | Session II – Health Hunger and Philanthropy

Judith Monroe, President and CEO, CDC Foundation

Erin McLeod, CEO, Friendship Centers, Sarasota, FL

Lisa Marsh Ryerson, President, AARP Foundation.

Gabriel Hament, Cumberland Advisors

Moderator: Lisa Shaw, CFP, CIMA, Managing Partner, Cygnus Asset Management, LLC

11:30 a.m. – 12:00 p.m. | Special Report on the Use of the Bloomberg Terminals – Two Years Later

Paul Bova, Director of Development and/or Dr. GJ de Vreede, Dean,
University of South Florida Sarasota-Manatee College of Business

Noon – 1:00 p.m. | Lunch

1:00 – 1:15 p.m. | Report on National and International Financial Literacy on-line exams

Christine Brown, CFA Tampa Bay, Society Executive, Tampa, FL

1:15 – 2:00 p.m. | A Conversation with Canada’s Consul General in Florida

Susan Harper, Canadian Consul General in Miami, Former Economic Minister for Embassy of Canada

2:00 – 3:00 p.m. | Session III – How the World Looks to Me

Leland Miller, CEO, China Beige Book International

Paul O’Brien, Former Deputy Chief Investment Officer, Strategy and Planning Department, Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, ADIA.

Moderator: Alison Gardner, Senior Vice President & Financial Advisor, RBC Wealth Management

3:00 – 3:15 p.m. | Break

3:15 – 4:00 p.m. | Keynote Speaker

Gretchen Morgenson, Senior Special Writer in the Investigations unit at The Wall Street Journal

4:00 p.m. | Concluding Remarks

See and read more of this at MailChimp’s site:

https://mailchi.mp/cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-week-in-review-april-15-2019-april-18-2019




Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (April 8, 2019 – April 12, 2019)


Week In Review
The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team. These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.

MATT MCALEER’S WEEKLY RECAP

As part of Cumberland Advisors’ continuous effort to maintain strong customer relationships, we offer this week’s short video discussing current market conditions and how we are positioning portfolios.

Interesting week in the equity market. A couple of things jump out at us. Continued strength in the equal weighted indexes vs. cap weighted. We like to see that. That’s showing capital spreading out in the market. What else we noticed and like to see is some underperforming sectors like energy and financials getting a little bid in here.

There are multiple ways to trade a tough position. Financials! The “dogs” of the last 24-36 months. We look at them. And how things relate to pricing power.

On April 11, 2019, Cumberland Advisors’ held the event, Financial Literacy Day III: An Update on Financial Markets and the Economy. We really enjoyed this opportunity to connect with our friends, clients, and the community that live and work near us in Florida.

If you couldn’t attend or you did attend and want to re-experience this information packed day, we’re posting talks and panels from the event on our YouTube channel. Included in this email is Gretchen Morgenson’s keynote address and Q&A session from the conference. We’ll be posting more videos over the next week or so. Enjoy!

Gretchen Morgenson’s keynote address

Gretchen Morgenson’s Q&A with audience

 

See and read more of this at MailChimp’s site:
https://mailchi.mp/cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-week-in-review-april-8-2019-april-12-2019




Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (Mar 18, 2019 – Mar 22, 2019)

View the latest Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (Mar 18, 2019 – Mar 22, 2019): Click here.

Week In Review




Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (Feb 11, 2019 – Feb 15, 2019)

Cumberland Advisors Week in Review

(Feb 11, 2019 – Feb 15, 2019)

February 16, 2019

Week In Review

The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team. These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.

 

MATT MCALEER’S WEEKLY RECAP

Matt McAleer shares some research in this week’s wrap up. Nice to see Europe get the bid we talked about before. We’ve been pleased in movements in Latin America and Asia. We talk about our US portfolio, changes we’ve made, and some history backed up by charts and data.  Should you ever own anything but the S&P 500? WATCH HERE. And reference the charts here: https://www.cumber.com/matt-mcaleers-weekly-recap-video-february-15-2019/

Matt McAleer and John Mousseau will provide extended quarterly videos for our clients that will incorporate equities and fixed-income in the coming weeks. Stay tuned!

 

MARKET COMMENTARY

 

Sign up or see more Market Commentary

UPCOMING EVENTS

Financial Literacy Day – Financial Markets and the Economy
You’ll want to mark your calendar for Thursday, April 11, when the University of South Florida Sarasota-Manatee joins Cumberland Advisors and the Global Interdependence Center in hosting the third annual “Financial Markets and the Economy Financial Literacy Day” event.Financial Markets and the Economy Financial Literacy Day IIIThe Outlook for the US Stock Market & Global Economic Outlook will be a feature and there will be a special report on the “Use of the Bloomberg Terminals – Two Years Later” after Cumberland Advisors and David Kotok gifted them to the University led by Paul Bova, Director of Development and/or Dr. GJ de Vreede, Dean, University of South Florida Sarasota-Manatee College of Business. We look forward to seeing what level of impact this has had on area students seeking to enhance their educations and understanding of finance and finance related tools.Financial Markets and the Economy Panels, Talks, and Discussions Include:

 

  • Keynote Speaker: Gretchen Morgenson, The Wall Street Journal: Senior Special Writer, Investigations Unit
  • A Conversation with Susan Harper, Canada’s Consul General in Miami
  • Session I – The Stock Market Matt McAleer, Executive VP & Director of Equity Strategies, Cumberland Advisors Richard Hoey, Senior Economic Advisor to BNY Mellon Wealth Management Adam Johnson, Founder & Author of Bullseye Brief, an Investment News Letter Moderator: Maryanne Waldman, RBC, Boston, MA
  • Session II – Health Hunger and Philanthropy Judith Monroe, President and CEO, CDC Foundation Erin McLeod, CEO, Friendship Centers, Sarasota, FL Lisa Marsh Ryerson, National President, AARP. Formerly, President and CEO, Wells College, Aurora, NY. Gabriel Hament, Cumberland Advisors Moderator: Lisa Shaw, CFP, CIMA, Managing Partner, Cygnus Asset Management, LLC
  • Session III – How the World Looks to Me Leland Miller, CEO, China Beige Book International Paul O’Brien, Former Deputy Chief Investment Officer, Strategy and Planning Department, Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, ADIA. Moderator: John Authers, Author and Bloomberg Columnist

Learn More about Financial Markets and the Economy Financial Literacy Day III at USFSM.

COMMUNITY ENGAGEMENT

 

David R. Kotok speaks to organizers of “Coming Together Against Cancer 2019”, held Saturday, April 13, 9–11:30am at Eloise Werlin Park, Sarasota, FL. CTAC is a donor-driven community uniting donors with pioneering physicians, researchers and institutions as ‘Partners In Discovery’ with the common goal of eradicating cancer. Donors leverage CTAC’s educational resources to make informed decisions and maximize the impact of their philanthropy with 100% donation pass-through and the potential for matching funds. Cumberland Advisors is a proud supporter. Watch the video to learn more or visit http://www.ctac.life

GET TO KNOW CUMBERLAND ADVISORS

Gabriel Hament, an investment advisor representative with Cumberland Advisors, originally joined the firm in late 2015 to assist with Charitable and Foundation Accounts. Gabriel passed the December 2018 Chartered Financial Analyst ® (CFA) Level I examination, the first of three steps toward CFA designation. At Cumberland, Gabriel now works with foundations, independent nonprofits and private individuals to align client investment portfolios with their unique objectives.

Gabriel was previously a political consultant in the Sarasota region, where he supervised and coordinated campaign messaging, fundraising, and field outreach programs. A native of Sarasota, he earned his B.A. in political science with a minor in history as a John V. Lombardi Scholar at the University of Florida.

Gabriel is also a graduate of the Connect Florida Institute, a sister organization of Leadership Florida. The mission of Connect Florida is to educate, engage, and inspire the state’s top emerging leaders.

Additionally, Mr. Hament is a member of the Programming Committee of the Sarasota Tiger Bay Club, which promotes community understanding of current political and social issues through public discourse and the free exchange of ideas. The Sarasota Tiger Bay Club is a nonpartisan political organization established in 1982.

In March 2017 Gabriel was appointed by the Sarasota County School Board to serve as a member of the Financial Advisory Committee (FAC). The FAC was created to provide citizens’ oversight of the district’s use of operating funds from the 1-mill locally voted referendum that was originally approved in 2002 and most recently reauthorized in 2018. The FAC provides oversight for the use of capital funding generated by the district’s share of a one-percent county sales tax. The FAC also monitors the District’s investment accounts ($50 Million Core Portfolio).

Are you with a foundation, independent nonprofit, or are you a private individual looking to align your investment portfolios with your unique objectives? Feel free to contact Gabriel or another investment advisor representative at Cumberland Advisors for an introduction.

 

FEATURED INTERVIEWS



Matt McAleer, Executive Vice President & Director of Equity Strategies for Cumberland Advisors, appears on the TD Ameritrade Network to discuss financial markets with Oliver Renick.

View the discussion by following the link above or here: https://tdameritradenetwork.com

 

Are municipalities ready for climate change? What are the repercussions for credit ratings and bonds? We examined many different angles of climate change during our January 2019 Climate Change summit led by Bob Bunting at the University of South Florida Sarasota-Manatee (USFSM)  including a presentation on conditions in the arctic. We were fortunate to have the opportunity to speak to the featured presenter, Dr. Robert Corell, about his experience in the arctic for a few minutes on camera. David R. Kotok leads the discussion, “What’s Happening in the Arctic,” in this short interview.

ADDITIONAL RESOURCES

 

Lessons from Thucydides

David R. Kotok has written the monograph pamphlet, “Lessons from Thucydides” detailing information asymmetries and their implications for investors and world affairs. The concept of a Thucydides Trap and its rise and avoidability (or lack thereof) is often debated and David makes a case for dealing with them weaving current and historical events into a comprehensive narrative.

Thucydides-Trap

This free monograph also has lessons for President Donald Trump’s trade policy. Can the United States avoid a Thucydides Trap with China & Xi Jinping? Will you benefit from the Lessons of Thucydides or fall victim to a Thucydides Trap? If information is key, you now have a handbook at your fingertips. Download a copy of this monograph in either PDF (free) or Kindle ($.99) format. https://www.cumber.com/thucydides/


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