Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (May 13, 2019 – May 17, 2019)

Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (May 13, 2019 – May 17, 2019)
May 18, 2019

The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team. These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We may also include older commentaries that our editors have determined to be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.

 

MATT MCALEER’S WEEKLY RECAP

The markets are two sided and you can approach them from a half-glass-full or a half-glass-empty perspective. In this week’s video, we talk about:

  • What we really dislike
  • What’s positive
  • What we’re keeping an eye on
  • Cash levels
  • We hate being late!
  • What we’re purchasing
  • What we’ll look to do in a pullback
  • Software
  • Liquidity is king

And Matt McAleer tops it off with some “horse” talk and a nod to what John Mousseau and he likes.

Watch below or at this link: YouTube


LATEST MARKET COMMENTARY

Tariffs – Macroeconomic Versus Microeconomic Effects: In the Long Run We Are All Dead

Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D. 05/17/2019

Robert Brusca Ph.D. on Tariffs, Trade, and the Fed

Robert Brusca, Ph.D. 05/14/2019

White House Considers Economist Judy Shelton for Fed Board

David R. Kotok 05/13/2019

Hope Is Not a Strategy

Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D. 05/07/2019

Brexit Deadlock and Investor Uncertainty

William Witherell, Ph.D. 05/06/2019

Q1 2019 Credit Commentary

Patricia Healy, CFA 05/03/2019

Sign up or see more Market Commentary


IN THE NEWS

Bloomberg – Trade War’s Hammerlock on Bond Market Puts Lower Yields in Sight

Quoted: David R. Kotok 05/18/2019

CNN Business – Why the US-China trade war won’t last

Quoted: David R. Kotok 05/14/2019

POLITICO – Markets freak (a little)

Quoted: David R. Kotok 05/08/2019

Bloomberg Radio – Bloomberg Daybreak Asia: Wear a Helmet When Doing Falconry With These Hawks (Radio)

Quoted: David R. Kotok 05/06/2019

Bloomberg Radio – The Fed Decides (Radio Podcast): Bob Eisenbeis on Bloomberg Markets

Quoted: Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D. 05/02/2019

WisdomTree – A Unique Lens on Risk Management

Quoted: Matt McAleer 05/01/2019


Join John Mousseau, Matt McAleer, & David Kotok for interviews this past week.

Cumberland Advisors Recent TV Appearances

LOCALLY

Gabriel Hament pictured here with Donna Maytham
Gabriel Hament pictured here with Donna Maytham, Fine Arts Society President

 

This week, Gabriel Hament, Investment Advisor Representative specializing in Foundations, Charitable Accounts & Private Individuals, attended and participated in the Fine Arts Society of Sarasota’s 2019 Scholarship Awards Luncheon at the Bird Key Yacht Club. Audience members were treated to live violin, piano and trumpet performances by scholarship recipients. Young artists studying graphic design, painting and illustration presented their latest works. Over $46,000 in scholarships were awarded to 12 high school and college students pursuing degrees in music, dance and art and design. Locally, students from Booker High School, Pine View, Sarasota High School and Ringling College of Art and Design were well-represented and recognized for their achievements. The Fine Arts Society of Sarasota has given more than $1 million in grants and scholarships in support of our local art community. To learn more about the good work of the Fine Arts Society of Sarasota, please visit www.fineartsrq.com.

ADDITIONAL RESOURCES

Lessons from Thucydides

David R. Kotok has written the monograph pamphlet, “Lessons from Thucydides” detailing information asymmetries and their implications for investors and world affairs. The concept of a Thucydides Trap and its rise and avoidability (or lack thereof) is often debated and David makes a case for dealing with them weaving current and historical events into a comprehensive narrative.

Thucydides-Trap

This free monograph also has lessons for President Donald Trump’s trade policy. Can the United States avoid a Thucydides Trap with China & Xi Jinping? Will you benefit from the Lessons of Thucydides or fall victim to a Thucydides Trap? If information is key, you now have a handbook at your fingertips. Download a copy of this monograph in either PDF (free) or Kindle ($.99) format. https://www.cumber.com/thucydides/




Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (April 29, 2019 – May 03, 2019)

The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team. These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.

Week In Review

MATT MCALEER’S WEEKLY RECAP

Matt appears in this week’s video with his Kentucky Derby picks, dressed up in Derby attire!

Happy Kentucky Derby Weekend! What are we talking about this round?

  • Volatility
  • Tech Numbers have been solid
  • QQQ & Nasdaq at all time high
  • Concern about Energy
  • S&P Earnings
  • Where to put Cash

And we wrap up with picks for the Kentucky Derby by Matt McAleer, and John Mousseau.

Market Commentary - Cumberland Advisors - Week in Review with Matt McAleer

Yesterday, May 3rd, was World Press Freedom Day. We took a moment to stop and reflect on the role of a free press and how it affects our day-to-day lives. The Committee to Protect Journalists (CPJ) states: “Please join us as we pause to recognize the courage and commitment of all those reporting, whether local or global, as press freedom is increasingly threatened around the globe.” You can learn more about CPJ here: https://cpj.org

Cumberland Advisors recently invited Gretchen Morgenson to our conference, “Financial Markets and the Economy – Financial Literacy Day III,” and we encourage you to watch her keynote address, titled “Why Financial Literacy Depends on Press Freedom,” at the link further down in this update. She has some excellent takeaways and anecdotes underscoring how important the press is for an accurate window on what’s happening behind markets and the world of finance.

Her video along with others is on our YouTube channel, updated weekly with Matt’s videos and other content that we produce and feel will be of value to you. Link: https://www.youtube.com/CumberlandAdvisors

Thank you for joining us and have a great Kentucky Derby weekend.


Read the full Cumberland Advisors Week in Review here: Weekly Update.




Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (April 15, 2019 – April 18, 2019)

Week In Review
The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team. These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.

MATT MCALEER’S WEEKLY RECAP

Short week. The equity and bond markets were closed on Friday. We talk about some of John Mousseau’s strategies in the bond market and we plan to get John on camera next week to talk about interest rates and munis. On the equity side, a fairly benign week outside of healthcare. We recall some of the atmosphere from 2016 when healthcare costs were top of mind for politicians and the news cycle. Headline risk creeps in on medical which includes medical device companies and biotech and we take a moment to explain.


April is Financial Literacy Month and Cumberland Advisors just held the event, “Financial Markets and the Economy: Financial Literacy Day III” with our partners at the University of South Florida Sarasota-Manatee. Take an opportunity to check out our YouTube channel and take advantage of the breadth and depth of the subject matters, speakers, and panelists we’ve assembled. Gretchen Morgenson’s keynote address from the conference is up and we’ll be posting more videos over the next week or so including our talk with Susan Harper, the Consul General of Canada in Miami, Florida. www.cumber.com/youtube . In the meantime, here is a link available to the full day of talks and panels to enjoy until our video segmentation process is finished. Enjoy!

Our partners at USF Sarasota-Manatee have provided a streaming video link of Cumberland Advisors’ annual event, “Financial Markets and the Economy – Financial Literacy Day III.” It was an open forum for individual investors, state and local officials, financial institutions, pension trustees, philanthropy activists, policy makers and policy wonks – all were welcome. At Cumberland Advisors, we believe everyone benefits from increased financial education. Topics included but were not limited to philanthropy and its impact and stewardship, financial market developments, the outlook for the U.S. stock market and the world, the U.S. banking system, and the global economic outlook.

We are busy segmenting panels and talks for our YouTube Channel. Until these are produced, below is an outline of the entire day’s activities to help you navigate and select where in the hours long streaming video you’d like to watch:

FEATURED VIDEO

FINANCIAL MARKETS & THE ECONOMY Financial Literacy Day III Full Day Video Link from USFSM

Streaming Video Link

April 11, 2019

8:00 – 8:30 a.m. | Registration and Coffee

8:30 – 9:00 a.m. | Welcoming Remarks

David R. Kotok, CIO, Cumberland Advisors, GIC Board Member

Karen Holbrook, Regional Chancellor, USF Sarasota-Manatee

9:00 – 10:00 a.m. | Session I – The Stock Market

Matt McAleer, Executive VP & Director of Equity Strategies, Cumberland Advisors

Richard Hoey, Senior Economic Advisor to BNY Mellon Wealth Management

Tripp Zimmerman, Director of Research at WisdomTree Asset Management, Inc.

Moderator: Maryanne Waldman, RBC, Boston, MA

10:00 – 10:15 a.m. | Break

10:15 – 11:30 a.m. | Session II – Health Hunger and Philanthropy

Judith Monroe, President and CEO, CDC Foundation

Erin McLeod, CEO, Friendship Centers, Sarasota, FL

Lisa Marsh Ryerson, President, AARP Foundation.

Gabriel Hament, Cumberland Advisors

Moderator: Lisa Shaw, CFP, CIMA, Managing Partner, Cygnus Asset Management, LLC

11:30 a.m. – 12:00 p.m. | Special Report on the Use of the Bloomberg Terminals – Two Years Later

Paul Bova, Director of Development and/or Dr. GJ de Vreede, Dean,
University of South Florida Sarasota-Manatee College of Business

Noon – 1:00 p.m. | Lunch

1:00 – 1:15 p.m. | Report on National and International Financial Literacy on-line exams

Christine Brown, CFA Tampa Bay, Society Executive, Tampa, FL

1:15 – 2:00 p.m. | A Conversation with Canada’s Consul General in Florida

Susan Harper, Canadian Consul General in Miami, Former Economic Minister for Embassy of Canada

2:00 – 3:00 p.m. | Session III – How the World Looks to Me

Leland Miller, CEO, China Beige Book International

Paul O’Brien, Former Deputy Chief Investment Officer, Strategy and Planning Department, Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, ADIA.

Moderator: Alison Gardner, Senior Vice President & Financial Advisor, RBC Wealth Management

3:00 – 3:15 p.m. | Break

3:15 – 4:00 p.m. | Keynote Speaker

Gretchen Morgenson, Senior Special Writer in the Investigations unit at The Wall Street Journal

4:00 p.m. | Concluding Remarks

See and read more of this at MailChimp’s site:

https://mailchi.mp/cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-week-in-review-april-15-2019-april-18-2019




Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (April 8, 2019 – April 12, 2019)


Week In Review
The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team. These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.

MATT MCALEER’S WEEKLY RECAP

As part of Cumberland Advisors’ continuous effort to maintain strong customer relationships, we offer this week’s short video discussing current market conditions and how we are positioning portfolios.

Interesting week in the equity market. A couple of things jump out at us. Continued strength in the equal weighted indexes vs. cap weighted. We like to see that. That’s showing capital spreading out in the market. What else we noticed and like to see is some underperforming sectors like energy and financials getting a little bid in here.

There are multiple ways to trade a tough position. Financials! The “dogs” of the last 24-36 months. We look at them. And how things relate to pricing power.

On April 11, 2019, Cumberland Advisors’ held the event, Financial Literacy Day III: An Update on Financial Markets and the Economy. We really enjoyed this opportunity to connect with our friends, clients, and the community that live and work near us in Florida.

If you couldn’t attend or you did attend and want to re-experience this information packed day, we’re posting talks and panels from the event on our YouTube channel. Included in this email is Gretchen Morgenson’s keynote address and Q&A session from the conference. We’ll be posting more videos over the next week or so. Enjoy!

Gretchen Morgenson’s keynote address

Gretchen Morgenson’s Q&A with audience

 

See and read more of this at MailChimp’s site:
https://mailchi.mp/cumber.com/cumberland-advisors-week-in-review-april-8-2019-april-12-2019




Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (Mar 18, 2019 – Mar 22, 2019)

View the latest Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (Mar 18, 2019 – Mar 22, 2019): Click here.

Week In Review




Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (Feb 11, 2019 – Feb 15, 2019)

Cumberland Advisors Week in Review

(Feb 11, 2019 – Feb 15, 2019)

February 16, 2019

Week In Review

The Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team. These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.

 

MATT MCALEER’S WEEKLY RECAP

Matt McAleer shares some research in this week’s wrap up. Nice to see Europe get the bid we talked about before. We’ve been pleased in movements in Latin America and Asia. We talk about our US portfolio, changes we’ve made, and some history backed up by charts and data.  Should you ever own anything but the S&P 500? WATCH HERE. And reference the charts here: https://www.cumber.com/matt-mcaleers-weekly-recap-video-february-15-2019/

Matt McAleer and John Mousseau will provide extended quarterly videos for our clients that will incorporate equities and fixed-income in the coming weeks. Stay tuned!

 

MARKET COMMENTARY

 

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UPCOMING EVENTS

Financial Literacy Day – Financial Markets and the Economy
You’ll want to mark your calendar for Thursday, April 11, when the University of South Florida Sarasota-Manatee joins Cumberland Advisors and the Global Interdependence Center in hosting the third annual “Financial Markets and the Economy Financial Literacy Day” event.Financial Markets and the Economy Financial Literacy Day IIIThe Outlook for the US Stock Market & Global Economic Outlook will be a feature and there will be a special report on the “Use of the Bloomberg Terminals – Two Years Later” after Cumberland Advisors and David Kotok gifted them to the University led by Paul Bova, Director of Development and/or Dr. GJ de Vreede, Dean, University of South Florida Sarasota-Manatee College of Business. We look forward to seeing what level of impact this has had on area students seeking to enhance their educations and understanding of finance and finance related tools.Financial Markets and the Economy Panels, Talks, and Discussions Include:

 

  • Keynote Speaker: Gretchen Morgenson, The Wall Street Journal: Senior Special Writer, Investigations Unit
  • A Conversation with Susan Harper, Canada’s Consul General in Miami
  • Session I – The Stock Market Matt McAleer, Executive VP & Director of Equity Strategies, Cumberland Advisors Richard Hoey, Senior Economic Advisor to BNY Mellon Wealth Management Adam Johnson, Founder & Author of Bullseye Brief, an Investment News Letter Moderator: Maryanne Waldman, RBC, Boston, MA
  • Session II – Health Hunger and Philanthropy Judith Monroe, President and CEO, CDC Foundation Erin McLeod, CEO, Friendship Centers, Sarasota, FL Lisa Marsh Ryerson, National President, AARP. Formerly, President and CEO, Wells College, Aurora, NY. Gabriel Hament, Cumberland Advisors Moderator: Lisa Shaw, CFP, CIMA, Managing Partner, Cygnus Asset Management, LLC
  • Session III – How the World Looks to Me Leland Miller, CEO, China Beige Book International Paul O’Brien, Former Deputy Chief Investment Officer, Strategy and Planning Department, Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, ADIA. Moderator: John Authers, Author and Bloomberg Columnist

Learn More about Financial Markets and the Economy Financial Literacy Day III at USFSM.

COMMUNITY ENGAGEMENT

 

David R. Kotok speaks to organizers of “Coming Together Against Cancer 2019”, held Saturday, April 13, 9–11:30am at Eloise Werlin Park, Sarasota, FL. CTAC is a donor-driven community uniting donors with pioneering physicians, researchers and institutions as ‘Partners In Discovery’ with the common goal of eradicating cancer. Donors leverage CTAC’s educational resources to make informed decisions and maximize the impact of their philanthropy with 100% donation pass-through and the potential for matching funds. Cumberland Advisors is a proud supporter. Watch the video to learn more or visit http://www.ctac.life

GET TO KNOW CUMBERLAND ADVISORS

Gabriel Hament, an investment advisor representative with Cumberland Advisors, originally joined the firm in late 2015 to assist with Charitable and Foundation Accounts. Gabriel passed the December 2018 Chartered Financial Analyst ® (CFA) Level I examination, the first of three steps toward CFA designation. At Cumberland, Gabriel now works with foundations, independent nonprofits and private individuals to align client investment portfolios with their unique objectives.

Gabriel was previously a political consultant in the Sarasota region, where he supervised and coordinated campaign messaging, fundraising, and field outreach programs. A native of Sarasota, he earned his B.A. in political science with a minor in history as a John V. Lombardi Scholar at the University of Florida.

Gabriel is also a graduate of the Connect Florida Institute, a sister organization of Leadership Florida. The mission of Connect Florida is to educate, engage, and inspire the state’s top emerging leaders.

Additionally, Mr. Hament is a member of the Programming Committee of the Sarasota Tiger Bay Club, which promotes community understanding of current political and social issues through public discourse and the free exchange of ideas. The Sarasota Tiger Bay Club is a nonpartisan political organization established in 1982.

In March 2017 Gabriel was appointed by the Sarasota County School Board to serve as a member of the Financial Advisory Committee (FAC). The FAC was created to provide citizens’ oversight of the district’s use of operating funds from the 1-mill locally voted referendum that was originally approved in 2002 and most recently reauthorized in 2018. The FAC provides oversight for the use of capital funding generated by the district’s share of a one-percent county sales tax. The FAC also monitors the District’s investment accounts ($50 Million Core Portfolio).

Are you with a foundation, independent nonprofit, or are you a private individual looking to align your investment portfolios with your unique objectives? Feel free to contact Gabriel or another investment advisor representative at Cumberland Advisors for an introduction.

 

FEATURED INTERVIEWS



Matt McAleer, Executive Vice President & Director of Equity Strategies for Cumberland Advisors, appears on the TD Ameritrade Network to discuss financial markets with Oliver Renick.

View the discussion by following the link above or here: https://tdameritradenetwork.com

 

Are municipalities ready for climate change? What are the repercussions for credit ratings and bonds? We examined many different angles of climate change during our January 2019 Climate Change summit led by Bob Bunting at the University of South Florida Sarasota-Manatee (USFSM)  including a presentation on conditions in the arctic. We were fortunate to have the opportunity to speak to the featured presenter, Dr. Robert Corell, about his experience in the arctic for a few minutes on camera. David R. Kotok leads the discussion, “What’s Happening in the Arctic,” in this short interview.

ADDITIONAL RESOURCES

 

Lessons from Thucydides

David R. Kotok has written the monograph pamphlet, “Lessons from Thucydides” detailing information asymmetries and their implications for investors and world affairs. The concept of a Thucydides Trap and its rise and avoidability (or lack thereof) is often debated and David makes a case for dealing with them weaving current and historical events into a comprehensive narrative.

Thucydides-Trap

This free monograph also has lessons for President Donald Trump’s trade policy. Can the United States avoid a Thucydides Trap with China & Xi Jinping? Will you benefit from the Lessons of Thucydides or fall victim to a Thucydides Trap? If information is key, you now have a handbook at your fingertips. Download a copy of this monograph in either PDF (free) or Kindle ($.99) format. https://www.cumber.com/thucydides/


Have you subscribed to our YouTube Channel?Thank you for engaging with us, your comments always welcome.

 




Matt McAleer’s Weekly Recap Video – February 15, 2019

Matt McAleer shares some research in this week’s wrap up. Nice to see Europe get the bid we talked about before. We’ve been pleased in movements in Latin America and Asia. We talk about our US portfolio, changes we’ve made, and some history backed up by charts and data. Should you ever own anything but the S&P 500? WATCH HERE. And reference the charts below.

SPY-MDY 10year

SPY-MDY 10year

SPY-MDY 10year

SPY-MDY 20year

 

 




Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (Feb 04, 2019 – Feb 08, 2019)

Week In ReviewThe Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team. These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.

MATT MCALEER’S WEEKLY RECAP

Matt McAleer invites John Mousseau to join him in this week’s wrap up. John relates continued demand for bonds. How about volatility in interest rates? And what effect are taxes and returns having in muniland and for investors? Will Trump change taxes again? John weighs in on these things.

Now onto Matt’s recap. Sometimes the markets act very reasonably from a trading standpoint. As mentioned 2 weeks ago, weekly momentum had reached elevated levels that normally create a pause or pullback. Saw some of that over the past 6-7 trading sessions. He talks about where he sees strength. Have a great weekend. WATCH HERE.

Matt McAleer and John Mousseau will provide extended quarterly videos for our clients that will incorporate equities and fixed-income in the coming weeks. Stay tuned!

 


MARKET COMMENTARY

 

    • Sign up or see more Market Commentary

       


      UPCOMING EVENTS

      Financial Literacy Day – Financial Markets and the Economy
      You’ll want to mark your calendar for Thursday, April 11, when the University of South Florida Sarasota-Manatee joins Cumberland Advisors and the Global Interdependence Center in hosting the third annual “Financial Markets and the Economy Financial Literacy Day” event.

      Financial Markets and the Economy Financial Literacy Day III

      The Outlook for the US Stock Market & Global Economic Outlook will be a feature and there will be a special report on the “Use of the Bloomberg Terminals – Two Years Later” after Cumberland Advisors and David Kotok gifted them to the University led by Paul Bova, Director of Development and/or Dr. GJ de Vreede, Dean, University of South Florida Sarasota-Manatee College of Business. We look forward to seeing what level of impact this has had on area students seeking to enhance their educations and understanding of finance and finance related tools.

      Financial Markets and the Economy Panels, Talks, and Discussions Include:

        • Keynote Speaker: Gretchen Morgenson, The Wall Street Journal: Senior Special Writer, Investigations Unit
        • A Conversation with Susan Harper, Canada’s Consul General in Miami
        • Session I – The Stock Market
          • Matt McAleer, Executive VP & Director of Equity Strategies, Cumberland Advisors
          • Richard Hoey, Senior Economic Advisor to BNY Mellon Wealth Management
          • Moderator: Maryanne Waldman, RBC, Boston, MA
        • Session II – Health Hunger and Philanthropy Judith Monroe, President and CEO, CDC Foundation Erin McLeod, CEO, Friendship Centers, Sarasota, FL Lisa Marsh Ryerson, National President, AARP. Formerly, President and CEO, Wells College, Aurora, NY. Gabriel Hament, Cumberland Advisors Moderator: Lisa Shaw, CFP, CIMA, Managing Partner, Cygnus Asset Management, LLC
        • Session III – How the World Looks to Me Leland Miller, CEO, China Beige Book International Paul O’Brien, Former Deputy Chief Investment Officer, Strategy and Planning Department, Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, ADIA. Moderator: John Authers, Author and Bloomberg Columnist

         

      • Learn More about Financial Markets and the Economy Financial Literacy Day III at USFSM.

        FEATURED INTERVIEW

        Camp Kotok – Judith Monroe from CDC Foundation & David Kotok explore Zika & the role of the foundation for the CDC, including how they help fulfill and extend the CDC’s mission and challenges. A self-described well-kept secret, the source of their funding will surprise many. Can they make the world a better place?


         


        IN THE NEWS

         

      • Sarasota Magazine – Cumberland Advisors Sets Third Annual Financial Literacy Conference for April 11
      • Quoted:Cumberland Advisors 02/06/2019
      • Sarasota Herald Tribune – ROBERT EISENBEIS: Tax the rich? Check the facts first
      • Quoted:Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D. 02/04/2019
      • Sarasota Herald Tribune – ‘US manufacturing is doing well and will continue to do well,’ Fed economist says
      • Quoted:Cumberland Advisors / Bill Strauss 02/01/2019
      • Bloomberg – Cumberland Chair David Kotok (Podcast)
      • Quoted:David R. Kotok 02/01/2019
      • Bloomberg – The Fed Is Guessing As it Plays With Fire: David Kotok (Radio)
      • Quoted:David R. Kotok 01/29/2019
      • Bloomberg TV – Cumberland’s Kotok Sees a Need to Expand Uncertainty Premium
      • Quoted:David R. Kotok 01/29/2019
      • SNN TV – USFSM hosts climate change presentation
      • Quoted:Cumberland Advisors / GIC/ USFSM Event Participants 01/25/2019
      • USFSM – Climate change summit draws crowd at USF Sarasota-Manatee
      • Quoted:Cumberland Advisors / GIC/ USFSM Event Participants 01/25/2019
      • Bradenton Herald – Red tide is always bad. Global warming is making it worse, researcher says
      • Quoted:Cumberland Advisors / GIC/ USFSM Event Participants 01/25/2019

      • IN CASE YOU MISSED IT

         

          • Tires, Chickens, and Trade – One Week Later

            Bill Witherell, Ph.D. 09/23/2009

            In the week following President Obama’s imposition of tariffs on Chinese tires, some commentators expressed confidence that the resulting trade dispute would be well-contained by the two countries and argued that the President had to throw some “red meat” to his trade union supporters. Other, including this writer, expressed concerns that this move could be damaging to the Obama Administration, costly for the US, and risk triggering more significant protectionist actions. The pro-business British magazine The Economist was particularly forceful in the cover story of its September 17 issue, entitled “Economic Vandalism.” The article begins with the following: “A protectionist move that is bad politics, bad economics, bad diplomacy and hurts America. Did we miss anything?” Some developments last week are encouraging, but others are not. Starting with the negative, as was anticipated, workers in numerous US industries also suffering from competition with the Chinese have begun to clamor for similar relief. Continued…

          • Joseph Stalin plus 75 (years) = Vladimir Putin

            David R. Kotok 08/15/2008

            Seventy-five years ago another Soviet thug by the name of Stalin chased a food supply and starved the Ukraine. He killed between 7 and 10 million people and thought nothing of it. In an ironic quirk of history, Stalin was born in Gori, Georgia. We now say “Ukraine” and not “the” Ukraine because Ukraine is supposedly an independent country. The Orange Revolution was supposed to have peacefully freed it from the Soviet sphere. So much for wishful thinking. Georgia’s experiment with western-style freedom has ended. The modern-day Stalin looked in George Bush’s eyes and seized the moment. Now Putin is ready to take Ukraine. Anyone who thinks the Georgia events were a one-off and isolated incident is overindulging on vodka. Ukrainian president Yushchenko’s attempt to limit Russian troop movements and obtain notice of them will fail. Putin will use this as the next pretext. We can learn from Georgia how brutal the Russian “ursus horribilus” can be when it chooses to send a message. It will get harder for Mr. Putin when he starts to mess with Poland, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. These are now member states of the European Union. So are others like Slovakia, Slovenia, and Czech Republic. The Russians may draw a line between the EU members and the EU nonmembers. They will use economic warfare against the former and military intervention against the latter. All this leads to more trouble. Continued…


          • ADDITIONAL RESOURCES

            Lessons from Thucydides

            Lessons from Thucydides on Parchment with Hoplites thin banner
            David R. Kotok has written the monograph pamphlet, “Lessons from Thucydides” detailing information asymmetries and their implications for investors and world affairs. The concept of a Thucydides Trap and its rise and avoidability (or lack thereof) is often debated and David makes a case for dealing with them weaving current and historical events into a comprehensive narrative.

            This free monograph also has lessons for President Donald Trump’s trade policy. Can the United States avoid a Thucydides Trap with China & Xi Jinping? Will you benefit from the Lessons of Thucydides or fall victim to a Thucydides Trap? If information is key, you now have a handbook at your fingertips. Download a copy of this monograph in either PDF (free) or Kindle ($.99) format. https://www.cumber.com/thucydides/

            Have you subscribed to our YouTube Channel?

            Thank you for engaging with us, your comments always welcome.




Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (Jan 14, 2019 – Jan 18, 2019)

Week In ReviewThe Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team. These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.

MATT MCALEER’S WEEKLY RECAP

Interesting week. In our wrap up, Cumberland Advisors’ Matt McAleer sees a lot of strength. He offers an update on International including a new position. We like the way emerging markets are acting. We keep an eye on volatility. Matt explains how markets are like snowflakes. Good trading to everybody! WATCH HERE


Look forward to extended quarterly videos for our clients that will incorporate equities and fixed-income in the coming weeks.

 

 


MARKET COMMENTARY

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UPCOMING EVENTS

Climate Banner with Bob Bunting

    • Adapting to a Changing Climate

      From hurricanes to red tide and sea level rise, learn how a changing climate affects the Sarasota-Manatee region and the state of Florida. Expert speakers will discuss the challenges and impact on Florida and other coastal communities while uncovering the adaptive strategies that bring unique social and economic opportunities. The featured speaker is Bob Bunting, CEO Waterstone Strategies/Scientist/Entrepreneur – January 25, 2019 – Selby Auditorium, USFSM , 8:30 am – 3 pm. Lunch is included. Cumberland Advisors is a sponsor and Patricia Healy, CFA, from our firm will discuss “Climate, Municipal Bonds and Infrastructure” with the audience. Details Here.

      • U.S. Manufacturing in a Global Context


         

        Join us Friday, February 1, 2019 at the Sarasota Yacht Club as we welcome Bill Strauss, Senior Economist and Economic Adviser of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, for a presentation on U.S. Manufacturing in a Global Context during a special breakfast session. Bill’s chief responsibilities include analyzing the current performance of both the Midwest economy and the manufacturing sector for use in monetary policy. He organizes the Bank’s Economic Outlook Symposium and Automotive Outlook Symposium. In addition, he conducts industrial and manufacturing roundtables throughout the year. Strauss will discuss manufacturing with a view of the sector from a present, historic, and future perspective that’s accessible to members of industry and the general public. According to Bill, “The demise of manufacturing in the USA is greatly exaggerated.” Thanks to the advent of new technology and lean manufacturing processes combined with a strengthening economy, manufacturing is experiencing a resurrection of sorts. Still, despite all the good news in the manufacturing world challenges continue to exist. Bill will also discuss the interrelationship between countries, including the current hot-topics of tariffs, the possibility of a 2019 economic slowdown, how viable is the U.S. manufacturing sector, BREXIT’s effect on the world economy, and ways manufacturers can leverage the latest advancements in technology to face challenges with little disruption. This breakfast presentation may be of interest to those in manufacturing and related industries, the general public, and investors wanting information on how the expansion or contraction of U.S. manufacturing may affect their portfolios. Note: The Fed does not offer financial advice nor suggestions for investors but the information is yours to benefit from. Attendees will have access to Strauss’ Federal Reserve handouts including his long-term analysis of manufacturing that has been updated to reflect current conditions and a summary of the most recent “Economic Outlook Symposium” held on November 30, 2018. Audience questions may be submitted to Bob Eisenbeis in advance at info@cumber.com for use in the session or for possible use during interviews at the conclusion of the talk. Inquiries about the event may be made via telephone, 941-926-6279, or at the aforementioned email address. Details Here.

  • Moose on the Loose – Cruise the High Seas with John Mousseau



    If it’s always been your dream to cruise the high seas with John Mousseau, your wish has been granted! John joins Steve Forbes and other money experts for The 31st Forbes Cruise for Investors on the Crystal Symphony. They explore cities and seaside villages stretching from Rio de Janeiro to Buenos Aires, January 24 – February 3, 2019. The roster of experts that accompany John plan to impart with their co-travellers timely and practical investment strategies including discussions of U.S. policies and how they’ll affect your portfolio. To join John or learn more, visit moneyshow.com

FEATURED INTERVIEWS

Summer of 2018 at Camp Kotok – Jeremy Schwartz, Director of Research at WisdomTree, & Leland Miller, CEO China Beige Book, discuss with David Kotok their day fishing, China, tariffs, trade, trade war, and Apple’s trillion dollar valuation: will Apple be a casualty in the dust-up between China and Trump? How close were they in evaluating China?


 


IN THE NEWS

 

 

 


IN CASE YOU MISSED IT

 

  • Monetary Policy, Savings, and Markets

    David R. Kotok 12/04/2015

    From all that we observe in the United States (Federal Reserve), Europe (European Central Bank), Japan (Bank of Japan), and other jurisdictions, monetary policy now consists of three basic, interconnected variables. They are (1) central bank balance sheet size, (2) balance sheet composition and duration, and (3) policy interest rates set mostly in the short term but also possibly in the intermediate and longer term. This policy tool set is a massively different system from what was studied for decades and applied for more than half a century. Today’s world no longer reflects the monetary dynamics envisioned by Milton Friedman. Let’s look at this configuration of policy tools in the sequence outlined above and then integrate it into portfolio management issues. Continued…

  • Chicken Little

    David R. Kotok 01/16/2011

    Meredith Whitney continues to forecast large ”defaults” in the Muni sector. She is now saying that none of the 50 states will default but that 50 to 100 cities and $100s of billions of Munis will default. Chicken Little? Or Cassandra? Time will tell. In Muniland, mutual fund redemptions are driving fund managers to liquidate tax-free Muni bond positions into a market with falling prices. Pricing references for bonds are used to reprice the estimated market value of all bonds. Very few Munis trade every day. The Muni sector is not like the stock market; pricing is not transparent. So unsophisticated investors watch their prices seem to fall and they hear the media hype and they panic. That triggers more mutual fund redemptions and the cycle repeats itself. Right now, there are Munis backed by federally guaranteed payment streams that are trading at yields above their US Treasury counterparts. The Munis are tax-free. The treasuries referenced are taxable. Clearly, this is not about credit risk or default risk. We are talking about bonds that have the US government as the source of credit on both sides of the comparisons. Clearly, something else is going on. Continued…


ADDITIONAL RESOURCES

Lessons from Thucydides

Lessons from Thucydides on Parchment with Hoplites thin banner
David R. Kotok has written the monograph pamphlet, “Lessons from Thucydides” detailing information asymmetries and their implications for investors and world affairs. The concept of a Thucydides Trap and its rise and avoidability (or lack thereof) is often debated and David makes a case for dealing with them weaving current and historical events into a comprehensive narrative.

This free monograph also has lessons for President Donald Trump’s trade policy. Can the United States avoid a Thucydides Trap with China & Xi Jinping? Will you benefit from the Lessons of Thucydides or fall victim to a Thucydides Trap? If information is key, you now have a handbook at your fingertips. Download a copy of this monograph in either PDF (free) or Kindle ($.99) format. https://www.cumber.com/thucydides/

Have you subscribed to our YouTube Channel?

Thank you for engaging with us, your comments always welcome.




Cumberland Advisors Week in Review (Jan 07, 2019 – Jan 11, 2019)

Week In ReviewThe Cumberland Advisors Week in Review is a recap of news, commentary, and opinion from our team. These are not revised assessments, and circumstances may have changed in the market from the time of original publication. We also include older commentaries that our editors have determined may be of interest to our audience. Your feedback is always welcome.

MATT MCALEER’S WEEKLY RECAP

In this week’s wrap up by Cumberland Advisors’ Matt McAleer, we give a quick summary of Muni Bonds with Matt passing along information from CEO & Head of Fixed Income, John Mousseau. On the Equities side, “Higher lows are what we’re looking for in repairing of a market,” says Matt. How do we see developed markets? And how are we trading in our different strategies? Tune in and watch. Also, a quick note for our clients about how you can see our videos. WATCH HERE

Look forward to extended quarterly videos for our clients that will incorporate equities and fixed-income in the coming weeks.


MARKET COMMENTARY

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UPCOMING EVENTS

Climate Banner with Bob Bunting

    • Adapting to a Changing Climate

      From hurricanes to red tide and sea level rise, learn how a changing climate affects the Sarasota-Manatee region and the state of Florida. Expert speakers will discuss the challenges and impact on Florida and other coastal communities while uncovering the adaptive strategies that bring unique social and economic opportunities. The featured speaker is Bob Bunting, CEO Waterstone Strategies/Scientist/Entrepreneur – January 25, 2019 – Selby Auditorium, USFSM , 8:30 am – 3 pm. Lunch is included. Cumberland Advisors is a sponsor and Patricia Healy, CFA, from our firm will discuss “Climate, Municipal Bonds and Infrastructure” with the audience. Details Here.

      Event - U.S. Manufacturing in a Global Context with Bill Strauss (GIC, FPA Suncoast & Cumberland Advisors) Small Banner

  • U.S. Manufacturing in a Global Context

    Save the Date! GIC is returning to Sarasota, FL on Friday, February 1, 2019 to partner with the Financial Planning Associates of the Suncoast and Cumberland Advisors. Join us at the Sarasota Yacht Club as we welcome Bill Strauss, Senior Economist and Economic Adviser of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, for a presentation on U.S. Manufacturing in a Global Context. Strauss is a senior economist and economic adviser in the economic research department at the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, which he joined in 1982. His chief responsibilities include analyzing the current performance of both the Midwest economy and the manufacturing sector for use in monetary policy. Details Here.

 

  • Moose on the Loose – Cruise the High Seas with John Mousseau


    If it’s always been your dream to cruise the high seas with John Mousseau, your wish has been granted! John joins Steve Forbes and other money experts for The 31st Forbes Cruise for Investors on the Crystal Symphony. They explore cities and seaside villages stretching from Rio de Janeiro to Buenos Aires, January 24 – February 3, 2019. The roster of experts that accompany John plan to impart with their co-travellers timely and practical investment strategies including discussions of U.S. policies and how they’ll affect your portfolio. To join John or learn more, visit moneyshow.com


FEATURED INTERVIEWS

We rewind to the summer of 2018 at Camp Kotok – David Kotok leads a conversation with Stuart Hoffman, SVP & Sr. Economic Advisor at PNC, & Barry Ritholtz, Chairman & CIO at Ritholtz Wealth Management. They discuss Apple’s ascension as a One Trillion Dollar Company, what impact will trade war, China, & Trump have on Apple’s operations, and will the trade war and any accompanying inflation trigger a response from the Fed that could bring about recession? Also, where did they learn their outdoor and fishing skills??? Hmmmm….


IN THE NEWS


 IN CASE YOU MISSED IT

 

Drachma!

David R. Kotok 05/29/2012
The drachma, the Greek currency, is over 3000 years old. It was the most widely circulated coin in the world prior to the time of Alexander the Great. Readers may enjoy a few minutes of study about Alexander the Great. His Macedonian army conquered Persia and much of the rest of the ancient world. His education came from Aristotle, his tutor up to the age of 16. He changed the political geography of the Balkans and the Mediterranean. See a few notes at the very end of this commentary. Back to the drachma. Since its reintroduction in 1832, all modern forms of the drachma have ended badly. The single exception was the exchange of the drachma for the euro in 2001. That chapter of Greek history is being rewritten now. Continued…

East Asian Kerfuffle

David R. Kotok 12/08/2013
Ieodo is a manmade platform affixed to an undersea rock (named Socotra) in the Yellow Sea. For a map and an aerial photo see Cumberland’s website. The platform is Korean, and the facility is an oceanographic research station. South Korea built the platform and claims jurisdiction, but China claims jurisdiction, too. International maritime law stipulates that undersea structures are not nationally territorial while above-sea-level structures are subject to claims. Ieodo is situated in the area where South Korea, China, and Japan are engaged in asserting claims over Air Defense Identification Zones (ADIZ). The airspace zones claimed by the three countries overlap. And now there is an occasional scrambling of military aircraft when planes enter the zones. Civilian aircraft and unarmed military or research aircraft face the choice of lengthening routes to bypass the zones or acknowledging them by advance filing of flight plans with the respective governments. And those governments face similar choices. Do they respect the zone of another country with which they disagree and file their own flight plans? Or do they ignore the claim of another country, which they contest, and thereby add to the risk of confrontation? Thus we have a geopolitical test of wills at work in East Asia. The initial US response to competing claims was to support Japan and fly two B-52s into the zone the Chinese claim, without notifying China. That move ratcheted up the Chinese response, and the Chinese scrambled fighter escorts. The incident triggered more responses and drew Korea into the kerfuffle. Continued…


ADDITIONAL RESOURCES

Lessons from Thucydides

Lessons from Thucydides on Parchment with Hoplites thin banner
David R. Kotok has written the monograph pamphlet, “Lessons from Thucydides” detailing information asymmetries and their implications for investors and world affairs. The concept of a Thucydides Trap and its rise and avoidability (or lack thereof) is often debated and David makes a case for dealing with them weaving current and historical events into a comprehensive narrative.

This free monograph also has lessons for President Donald Trump’s trade policy. Can the United States avoid a Thucydides Trap with China & Xi Jinping? Will you benefit from the Lessons of Thucydides or fall victim to a Thucydides Trap? If information is key, you now have a handbook at your fingertips. Download a copy of this monograph in either PDF (free) or Kindle ($.99) format. https://www.cumber.com/thucydides/

Have you subscribed to our YouTube Channel?

Thank you for engaging with us, your comments always welcome.