Trumpsider trading? Lockheed Tweet & The Facts

Author: David Kotok, Post Date: December 31, 2016
image_pdfimage_print

“I’ve made up my mind; don’t confuse me with the facts.”

The best source we can find for the above quote is the November 1945 issue of Advertising & Selling, in an article titled “Don’t Confuse Me with Facts!” by Roy S. Durstine. His article contained just the second portion of the statement: “Don’t confuse me with facts!” The first clause in the quote, “I’ve made up my mind,” was implicit in the context of the anecdote he relates. Durstine may have protected the identity of the person who first muttered in a meeting, “Don’t confuse me with facts;” or indeed, that statement may have been a meme floating around in the culture long before Durstine penned his article. We do know that versions of the full saying were being imprinted on signs and cards by 1954.

Let’s get to some facts about President-elect Trump’s Dec. 12 tweet about Lockheed Martin’s F-35 stealth fighter and Lockheed share-price volatility. Here is a copy of the tweet: cumber.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/img_0443.jpg.

Also depicted is a Lockheed stock price history posted by David Axe, who blogged on 12/13/16 that “Someone Began Dumping Stock Before Trump Attacked Lockheed” (https://medium.com/defiant/someone-began-dumping-stock-before-trump-attacked-lockheed-65af1fba8165#.qxnbv8lzw). Axe got the price history and the idea of its putative connection to the Trump tweet from another blogger, Christopher Bouzy.

The Axe blog took the matter viral, and other bloggers piled on. Anti-Trump forces seized upon the conclusion that insider trading was involved. They had “made up their minds.” Some of them actually invited evidence to be established to the contrary. In other words, they challenged the blogosphere to prove a negative.

Well, we cannot prove a negative, as anyone with even a smidgen of philosophical training knows. But we can do some research; we can draw some inferences; and we may even be able to point to some facts. We got some help in that endeavor from our colleague Donna Marie Valles, who is on our trading desk and has some facility in the use of Bloomberg data.

Donna M found that 18 trades occurred in the pre-market period before the famous tweet. They were mostly for small amounts and included several odd lots. The prices ranged from $258.89 low to $260.87 high. A small trade at $258.90 occurred at 8:17 AM; that was the lowest price right before the 8:26 AM time that appears on the tweet itself.

No trades are listed in the Bloomberg database between 8:21 AM and 8:26 AM. At 8:26 and 23 seconds, a small trade is listed at $258.57. It is followed by 18 other trades in the 8:26 time slot. By the end of the 8:26 series of trades, which spanned 48 seconds into the one-minute period, the price had fallen to $256.68. In other words, the stock price traded down after the tweet. So, if no trading occurred in the 8:21–8:25 period highlighted by Bouzy and Axe, we have to suspect the accuracy of their allegations and the conclusion they reached.

cumber map
Cumberland Advisors® is registered with the SEC under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940. All information contained herein is for informational purposes only and does not constitute a solicitation or offer to sell securities or investment advisory services. Such an offer can only be made in the states where Cumberland Advisors is either registered or is a Notice Filer or where an exemption from such registration or filing is available. New accounts will not be accepted unless and until all local regulations have been satisfied. This presentation does not purport to be a complete description of our performance or investment services. Please feel free to forward our commentaries (with proper attribution) to others who may be interested. It is not our intention to state or imply in any manner that past results and profitability is an indication of future performance. All material presented is compiled from sources believed to be reliable. However, accuracy cannot be guaranteed.
Loading...