Are Trump’s New Trade Threats Just the Art of the Deal? Analysts See Reason to Worry

Author: , Post Date: December 5, 2019

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Are Trump’s New Trade Threats Just the Art of the Deal? Analysts See Reason to Worry
By Reshma Kapadia – Dec 23, 2019


Talk about being whipsawed. The market has gone from cheering word from President Donald Trump that negotiators were in the “final throes” of an initial trade deal to concern over Tuesday’s comments that the dispute with China could drag out past the 2020 election.

Last week, statements by U.S. and China officials fed expectations that tariffs set to take effect Dec. 15 on $156 billion of Chinese goods, including smartphones, toys, and other products, would be suspended or delayed.

StockTradersDaily’s Thomas Kee has been warning clients of a no-deal trade scenario, and chances for an interim pact are even lower now. “China isn’t giving the U.S. enough to make a deal, and instead of looking weak President Trump is much more likely to hit back hard,” Kee wrote to clients, noting that U.S. trade envoys haven’t accepted the most recent invitation by Chinese officials. “Prepare for a trade war bombshell.”

David Kotok, chairman and chief investment officer of Cumberland Advisors, was equally grim. “There will be no settlement in the Trump trade war, nor will there be a reduction in China-US tensions,” he told clients still optimistic about trade. “Markets discounting anything more than a cease-fire are making an erroneous assumption,” Kotok wrote, adding that tariffs are a tax on American consumers.

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